John McCain and a surprise hit 'Tonight Show'

Straight-talker John McCain, the Arizona senator and new front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, went on the "Tonight Show with Jay Leno" again tonight. No, make that tonight again.

Last summer, you may remember, when McCain's campaign was out of money and laying off staff and he was flying solo back in the economy section of commercial airliners, his candidacy was largely considered dead. The senator went on the same show then and re-announced his campaign. He said he thought that might give it a new life.

Guess it worked. McCain said what revived his campaign finances were all the contributions from Leno's band.

Anyway, tonight McCain was full of jokes. Jay asked him what he thought about....

The debate's finale: A producer's dream

In the heart of Hollywood, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama gave their crowd what it obviously wanted: A Hollywood ending.

Rather than grow testier as it went along, their one-on-one debate this evening at L.A.'s Kodak Theatre grew friendlier. And it culminated in a lovefest, with both keeping alive -- to the obvious delight of their listeners -- the possibility that they will end up on the national ticket together.

Close attention to their answers about an Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama pairing will show that neither came anywhere close to committing to such a team. Despite that little detail, they hit high notes as they wrapped up their conversation (which is what the proceedings evolved into).

"I'm sure Hillary would be on anybody's short list," Obama said, finishing his answer to the question of running with Clinton, which he had used mainly to stress the importance of bringing dedicated, civic-minded folks into government (hard to disagree with that).

Indeed, Clinton chimed in: "I have to agree with everything that Barack just said." She added: "There is no doubt we will have a united Democratic Party."

With that, the audience was on its feet, cheering wildly.

A happy ending, as noted. Now we'll see what happens as life -- and the campaign -- goes on.

-- Don Frederick

The Running Ticket Blog: The Dem debate live

These comments are in chronological order from the top, reading down.
Share your thoughts with Andrew Malcolm and Don Frederick on tonight's debate. Jump to the comment form.

Well, Don, here we go. The last big rhetorical confrontation between the last two Democratic candidates standing before Super Tuesday, Feb. 5, when all those delegates are picked across the country in nearly two dozen states. Scroll to the bottom for updates.

It'll be interesting to see how confrontational Hillary Clinton is, after all the criticism for her husband's scorched-earth campaigning across South Carolina last week, and how confrontational Barack Obama is, after all the hubbub over his perceived snub of Clinton on the Senate floor before President Bush's State of the Union Monday night.

She has said she reached out her hand and it's still reaching out. She also just happens to bring it up at every opportunity.

Think we can guarantee the debate will start with a handshake?

Obama, it seems to me, has shown a growing maturity and comfort with the debate format. At first, even when he criticized her, he spoke to the moderator and camera. Now, he regularly turns toward her to address his criticism, small but important gesture for people passing video judgment on who might be their commander in chief.

Clinton has always shown a clear command of the wonky issue stuff. But -- yes, it is an unfair double standard -- when she got in her zinger last time about Obama's friendship with Rezko "the slum landlord," some thought she came across as unduly harsh, perhaps catty. (Obama, of course, opened that can of worms by taking a shot at her service on Wal-Mart's board of directors.)

Hard balance for a female to show the strength while remaining feminine. I'll bet she's worked at it since.

--Andrew Malcolm

*

No initial handshake as Obama and Clinton walked onto the stage -- so if it occurred, if was out of camera range. And, for the most part, the pair did not exchange pleasantries as they posed for photographs, though Obama did whisper something into Clinton's ear.

-- Don Frederick

*

Perhaps wanting to nix lingering attention to the "snub," Obama makes a point of saying in his opening statement (a wrinkle not included in Wednesday night's Republican debate, which featured four candidates) that he was friendly with Clinton before the campaign, and would be her friend after it, regardless of how it turns out.

-- Don Frederick

*

Asked, in the debate's first question, to spell out the differences between her and Obama, Clinton predictably mentions that her healthcare policy starts out making universal coverage the goal. Then, she revisits a distinction that surfaced last summer, but had faded from view of late -- Obama's statement that he, as president, would readily meet directly with the leaders of rogue states.

Clinton criticized that remark at the time. And tonight, she said she would pursue a foreign policy that is "realistic and optimistic, but we start with realism." That means, she elaborates, that she would be less willing than Obama to sit down with rogue-state leaders.

-- Don Frederick

*

No disrespect to the Republicans who still have four candidates running, at least for another week. But this debate with only two really allows time for deeper answers and fewer simplified stump answers. Get the feeling I'm learning more about each of them. Instead of the stupid 30-second answers or raising hands when each party had 8 or 9.

Remember the historic Lincoln-Douglas debates for the Senate seat from Illinois in the 1850s? Abe and Stephen got together for a three-hour discussion, just the two of them. Back and forth, making points, arguing, answering back. Maybe they had bathroom breaks, but no commercial breaks. And no moderators like Anderson Cooper apportioning debate time unfairly, as he did so obviously last night to Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul. Three hours they went at it.

And they did seven of them around the state. Not a bad model.

--Andrew Malcolm

*

At the debate's break, the heated exchanges between Obama and Clinton during their get-together last week in South Carolina (when John Edwards was still part of the mix) have been lacking.

There was a minor spat over the touchy issue of driver licenses for illegal immigrants, but it was tame compared to the brickbats the pair were tossing at each other in the Palmetto State.

The bottom line on the immigration topic was that both would seek the type of comprehensive change that Congress has been unable to agree upon.

-- Don Frederick

*

It was about an hour into the debate when a question was asked directly about Ted Kennedy's much-publicized endorsement at Obama. But by that point, Obama already had worked in two references to the Democratic icon -- once during the discussion of health care, again during the discussion of immigration.

The use of Kennedy's name during the health care segment was effective -- Obama said that in backing him, Kennedy believed his prescription for achieving universal coverage, although not as aggressive as Clinton's would work. Still, Obama must guard against using Kennedy as cover too often.

-- Don Frederick

*

Barring a sudden shift in the debate's final minutes, it may be remembered as the night Clinton and Obama targeted Republicans -- more than each other.

Obama got off a good line about Mitt Romney, when discussing expertise in dealing with the economy. Romney, of course, has stressed his skills in that area. But Obama cracked that Romney "hasn't gotten a very good return on his investment" in his presidential campaign.

Obama also took a swipe at John McCain's remark that America might have a military presence in Iraq for 100 years.

Clinton got the biggest response of the night when she reprised a line she's used before about the prospective Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton White House tenures. It took a Clinton to clean up after the first Bush, she said -- clearly knowing it was a surefire line -- and it might take a Clinton to clean up after the second.

A bit odd she said "might." A show of modesty, perhaps.

-- Don Frederick

*

Who knew that CNN's Wolf Blitzer would present Clinton's with perhaps her trickiest moment?

Blitzer cut to the chase after Clinton, for the umpteenth time, explained why she voted for the measure authorizing military force in Iraq and why she wasn't inclined to apologize for that vote. So, Blitzer interjected, you were "naive" in trusting Bush?

Clinton, obviously, disagreed with that characterization and it earned Blitzer some boos from the crowd. But it was worth a try.

If the start of the debate -- when healthcare was dwelled on -- played to Clinton's strengths, the discussion on Iraq gave Obama a chance -- again for the umpteenth time -- to stress that he got it right (from the Democratic point of view) in opposing an invasion of Iraq from the start.

-- Don Frederick

*

Then came the inevitable question about an Obama-Clinton or Clinton-Obama partnership for the general election, what CNN's Blitzer called "a dream ticket."

For either to answer that would mean they'd contemplated defeat. So clearly neither would. Obama jumped in first, acknowledged that anyone would want Hillary on their ticket and said it would be "premature and presumptuous" to speculate on a vice president with so much of the nomination campaign yet to occur.

But then, surprisingly, and showing his maturity and new deftness in recent months as he matured in the debate process, which had been difficult for him at first, Obama took the question and twisted it into a mini-speech on the kind of people he would want in his administration "to restore hope" (there's that Obama word again) for millions of Americans at home caring for their children and struggling with their mortgages, etc. He got applause.

In the past, as when he, Clinton and John Edwards were once asked their greatest weakness, he answered the question directly: he keeps a rather messy office. The others took it into areas like feeling too passionate about changing America. For several days Obama himself told that story himself on the trail as an example of a lesson.

Clinton tonight said she agreed with everything Barack had said and did a little riff of her own on how united Democrats would be when the primary season is over and they face the Republicans.

--Andrew Malcolm

*

Wolf asked a question on many people's minds tonight, a question that Clinton has been asked before and was prepared for. If she can't control her husband on the hustings of South Carolina, how could she control him in the White House? (No, not that kind of control.)

Clinton let out that increasingly famous laugh. Then proceeded to not answer the question. She said, "Both Barack and I have very passionate spouses who promote and defend us at every opportunity." She said how much she appreciated that and that when she was in the White House she would seek advice from a broad range of advisors but would be the final decision-maker.

Of course, none of that answer acknowledged that Obama's spouse is not a former president with the public podium that brings and that, so far, Michelle Obama has not injected Bill Clinton's lily-white race into the campaign, nor compared him in a demeaning way to past ultimately unsuccessful candidates of his race like, oh, say, Harold Stassen.

--Andrew Malcolm

*

Well, they may not have started the evening off with a much-watched-for handshake, but they proceeded with decorum. And ended happily ever after.

Throughout the evening as Clinton answered or didn't answer her questions, Obama, who used to stand and stare straight ahead, would turn toward his opponent and listen intently, sometimes tilting his head with interest and sometimes jotting down notes with, did you notice, his left hand. Another left-handed potential president like four of the last six actual presidents--Clinton, Bush I, Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford.

At the end, smiling, perhaps because it was over, Obama stood, towering over the minute Clinton. He turned toward her again and placed his hand on her chair back to politely pull it out as she rose.

Then, no doubt completely unaware of the millions of people and cameras watching, the two warring candidates leaned into each other's ears and exchanged words that must have been hilarious because they were both smiling and laughing and patting each other's arms. Really good friends obviously.

Now come a few days of furious campaigning and the Big Day, Tuesday.

--Andrew Malcolm

An Edwards union eyes Obama

John Edwards' departure from the Democratic presidential race leaves dangling some key unions who supported him. And word on the street is that one -- the Transport Workers Union -- may quickly shed its disappointment and sign up with Barack Obama's campaign.

The endorsement, if it happens, could prove beneficial to Obama in his Super Tuesday faceoff with Hillary Clinton.

Representing subway workers, bus drivers and the like, it claims more than 50,000 active and retired members in New York (the Clinton homestate where Obama hopes to avoid a blowout), 8,000 in New Jersey and 12,000 in California -- three of the major states with Tuesday primaries.

It's also got a contingent of about 10,000 current and retired members in Oklahoma, one of those "red" states where Obama wants to show his appeal in a primary on Tuesday.

Other unions that backed Edwards ...

Obama and Clinton, liberal and growing more so

Democrats these days don't like to use the "L" word much. Its connotation of give-away government is harder to market. In fact, a search of almost all Democratic debates in this presidential season did not produce one utterance of that word by any of the candidates. Sen. Hillary Clinton says  she prefers "progressive."

But such preferences do not apply to the National Journal, which has just released its political rankings for 2007. And someone we're all coming to know a bit better by the day -- Barack Obama -- was just named today as the most liberal Democrat in the Senate for 2007 based on 99 votes.

In fact, he was more liberal last year than in his first two in the Senate, when he ranked 16th and 10th.

Now, you may ask, what about Obama's opponent in tonight's Democratic debate? How'd she vote? Well, she too voted more liberal last year than....

Charting the media's political coverage

As the battles for the two major party nominations narrow down to the short lists, and with possible Waterloos looming next week on Super Tuesday, the Project for Excellence in Journalism has just released a report analyzing how the media is covering the campaign.

The report finds a mixed bag, to be sure, but the upshot is that the media pay an awful lot of attention to the front-runners. And any political reporter who has spent time on the trail has heard from supporters of lower-tier candidates -- from Ron Paul to Dennis Kucinich -- about how if the media would just give the candidate some attention, the campaign would flourish.

The folks at Medill Reports -- journalism graduate students at Northwestern University in Evanston, Ill. -- digest the report here, looking at what comes first in this chicken-egg conundrum. And it is one of those unresolvable issues. Yes, if the media paid more attention to, say, Paul, then more people might know more about his positions. But if the candidate is not doing ...

In his own words: Bill Clinton on Barack Obama and Jesse Jackson

The bitterness of ex-president Bill Clinton's scorched earth march to the sea across South Carolina lingers not just in the chilly relations between his wife, Hillary, and Sen. Barack Obama, and apparently in the votes of thousands of South Carolinians. There was considerable criticism of Bill Clinton for injecting race into the race, which Obama easily won 2 to 1.

But now some of Clinton's supporters are suggesting he was not seeking to marginalize Obama as an old-fashioned hopeless black candidate, but that it was actually reporters who injected race and the Rev. Jesse Jackson into Clinton's post-election analysis.

Thanks to our colleague Jake Tapper over at ABC News, we have the entire transcript of that controversial exchange between Clinton and reporters. As we occasionally choose to do here at the Ticket, we've laid out a longer conversation so readers can soak up the context and full impact of the politically spoken words. Now, you can make your own judgment as to who brought the Rev. Jackson into the conversation:

Bill Clinton:  Wow. Hi, Everybody.

Reporter:  How’s it going for you this morning, Mr. President?

BC:  Oh, good.  You know, I like election days and I think it’s interesting they vote on Saturday here. It makes it easier for working people to go.  You know, there’s really not much you can do to change a lot of votes, but by stirring around, you may induce people who are for you to go ahead and vote when they might not have.

Reporter:  You proud of what you’ve done here in South Carolina?

BC:  Oh yeah, we’ve done our best, and we’ve had, I particularly have enjoyed, you know, my role here has been almost exclusively to go around and do town meetings and answer questions, that’s most of what I’ve done, and I’ve really enjoyed that.  I think it’s been immensely impressive to me to see in the audiences whether they were predominantly African American, predominantly....

The debate words those Republicans used

The Times' Ben Welsh has done it again. He's created another one of those word clouds that analyzes the words used over a period of time.

The last one he did studied the changing vocabulary within all of President Bush's State of the Union and budget addresses to Congress. We wrote about it in the Ticket on Tuesday. This newest word cloud examines every word in 16 major Republican debates from this political season. You can find the revealing device here on this website.

Move the slider along the line from the first Republican debate last May 3 at the Reagan Library to the most recent GOP debate in the same place last night with the four surviving candidates. You'll see how the most-used words changed -- and stayed the same -- as time passed during the campaign. The more often a word is used the larger the type.

For instance, "people," "government" and "country" were used often throughout the rhetorical confrontations. The word "crime" didn't appear much early on, but by September was uttered often into November and then disappeared again. The words "tax" or "taxes" appeared often in the spring, waned by September and then reappeared in an important way late in the Republican primary campaign.

We'll check out the same sorts of things after tonight's Democratic debate at the Kodak Theatre, which will be streamed live here and blogged live here starting at 5 p.m. PST. But that debate will have only half the participants -- Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

Here, by the way, are some words that do not show up frequently in the GOP debate word cloud: loser, surrender, rapid, withdrawal, wonderful, Democrats, free, healthcare, amnesty, liberal and anti-business.

-- Andrew Malcolm

McCain's bus passes Romney's bus and what does that mean?

Are buses becoming the campaign metaphor of 2008?

Earlier this month as he sought publicity and votes by making a 36-hour nonstop pre-caucus campaign tour all around Iowa, Democrat John Edwards' bus started making strange sounds in the frigid darkness of western Iowa.

It was abandoned on the roadside as the candidate and his entourage jumped into vans to race to the next appearance very late and greet a restive crowd spilling into the cold night. The next morning Ticket readers messaged they had seen the vehicle being towed forlornly along Interstate 80 for repairs.

And Edwards did not do so well in the Hawkeye state either.

Last night it wasn't so cold in Ventura County. But at the Republican debate in the....

The GOP brand "is hurting"

As John McCain officially claimed victory Tuesday night in Florida, he expressed particular pride in having won "an all-Republican primary” (i.e., one where only registered party members can vote).

But as he and his entourage flew cross-country Wednesday to California, one of his staunchest allies stressed that, in his view, one of McCain's main political assets ultimately will stem from his willingness to sometimes buck the GOP.

“How could we possibly win by throwing into the November election someone so tied to the [Republican] label?" asked Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). "Our brand name is hurting.”

McCain's reputation as a maverick from the party line is "a godsend for us," Graham told The Times' Maeve Reston and other reporters.

Graham noted that in poll after poll, the GOP keeps coming up far short of the Democrats when voters are asked which party they would like to see win the White House later this year. With those results in mind, Graham said, "Republicans are not stupid -– for us to think that we didn’t have to have some adjustment with the general public would be stupid.”

Of course, it is precisely the doubts that some rank-and-file Republicans have about McCain's party credentials that Mitt Romney is banking on to still give him a legitimate shot at the nomination. And lest there be any doubt that the chances are slim that at least one leading conservative commentator will reconcile himself to McCain, check out these remarks from Rush Limbaugh, who finds McCain unacceptable.

-- Don Frederick

Life hasn't been perfect for Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney -- who by most outward appearances has lived a pretty charmed life -- is not without some remorse over roads not taken, he revealed during this evening's debate among the Republican presidential candidates in California.

Romney has been stressing of late that, with his background as a businessman and governor, he is better-equipped than John McCain to grapple with the nation's economic woes. Appropriately, he got asked tonight about another of a president's prime responsibilities -- what makes him more qualified than McCain, who has an extensive military background, to serve as commander in chief?

In answering, Romney said in part: "One of the two great regrets I have in life is I didn't serve in the military. I'd love to have, but I don't believe that you have to have served in the military to be a great commander in chief or to be a great foreign policy expert."

True enough. But before this campaign is over, we'd also like to know what that other regret was.

-- Don Frederick

The Running Ticket Blog: The GOP Debate Live

CNN's Anderson Cooper began tonight's debate among the Republican White House contenders with an effort to get them to run against President Bush (still their party's titular leader), but only the two candidates with little chance of winning the nomination -- Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul -- went in that direction.

Cooper used the formulation Ronald Reagan famously used against then President Jimmy Carter in the 1980 campaign -- "are we better off than we were 4 years ago" -- to ask the candidates if they could say the country was better off than it was since Bush took office.

Mitt Romney ducked, noting that he isn't running on Bush's record. He then touted his economic record as governor of Massachusetts.

John McCain answered that, overall, he thought the nation was better off, but adding it's facing "a very serious challenge" on the economic front now.

Huckabee and Paul said the country was NOT better off, but they spread the blame to Congress, as well.

-- Don Frederick

*

Good little zinger there by McCain. Romney was running down a long list of how the Arizona senator is not conservative--voting against the 2 Bush tax cuts, etc. And Romney ended by saying: "If you get endorsed by the N.Y. Times, you're not a conservative."

To which McCain added, "Let me just say, Governor, I was endorsed by your two hometown newspapers."

--Andrew Malcolm

*

Is this a sure sign that, as reports have it, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger will be endorsing McCain on Thursday?

McCain was asked his opinion of the Bush administration's refusal to allow California to forge ahead with more aggressive rules the state wants to implement to combat the emission of greenhouse gases. McCain, who stood by Bush when asked about the president's economic question in the evening's first question (see below), split with him on this one -- as he would almost have to in order to have Schwarzenegger enlist in his camp.

McCain said that as a federalist, he believed in giving states wide latitude. He also criticized, as he has frequently in the past, the Bush administration for not being more aggressive in combatting global warming.

-- Don Frederick

*

Oh, my, Romney touches on the third rail without being forced to--changing entitlement. He notes they make up 60% of the federal budget now and will be 70% by second term of next president. Fred Thompson's the one Republican who offered a detailed Social Security reform plan. It's dangerous territory. but Romney quickly added, We're not gonna change the deal for seniors, but for those in their 20s and 30s.

--Andrew Malcolm

*

McCain tried to veer off subject, rather than provide a straight answer to a direct question, when he was asked about the subject that has bedeviled him throughout his latest presidential bid -- his advocacy in the Senate for a sweeping bill on immigration policy that included a path to citizenship for those who entered the country illegally.

Of late, he's been stressing the need for tougher border security before addressing the citizenship matter. But would he, he was asked, support the original bill if it came to the Senate floor today.

"It won't," he replied at first, an obvious dodge. He then almost literally mumbled that he wouldn't vote for it because the American people have made clear they first wanted improvements in border security.

Pressed to make clear whether he would again vote for the bill as it was first written in 2006, he again dodged. "My bill will not be voted on."

-- Don Frederick

*

As Tuesday's Florida primary neared, a mini-furor erupted in conservative circles over a report that McCain had indicated that, as president, he would push for Supreme Court nominees such as John Roberts but that someone like Samuel Alito might not be his cup of tea.

McCain tonight embraced both when asked his opinion of Reagan's appointment of Sandra Day O'Connor to the court (she disappointed conservatives on a number of fronts, most prominently her support for the Roe vs. Wade abortion decision). McCain expressed his pride in O'Connor, a fellow Arizonian, but then said he's favor nominees with more tired-and-true conservative records, such as Roberst AND Alito.

-- Don Frederick

*

I agree with Wm. Irvin in the comments below. What about the other 2 candidates. The moderators are letting McCain and Romney fight way too much over technicalities over what who said when about a phased withdrawal. Sure, they're trying to hurt each other with conservatives and national security, which McCain thinks is his strong suit.

Finally, they call on Rep. Ron Paul, who predictably explained how we shouldn't have been in Iraq in the first place. How we bomb bridges out overseas, then spend American taxpayers' money on rebuilding them when our own bridges are falling down of their own weight. Good pts all and applause lines. And he knows it. Part of his standard stump speech.

And then Mike Huckabee pleads for a question "for those of us down on this end of the table." Finally, he got some.

Wish they'd suddenly have the candidates ask each other a question or two.

McCain steps in and says the reality is we're gonna be in Iraq a long time, the real issue is American casualties, not whether they're present.

--Andrew Malcolm

*

Gimme a break. If you were watching on the left side of the screen just now, you could see, as Anderson Cooper asked yet another question of Romney/McCain, Huckabee throw up his hands and exchange a look of impatience with Cong. Paul, who understandably shook his head.

Cooper saw him so tossed Paul a question about being commander in chief. And Paul went down his familiar line of saying the govt. should not be running the economy, but lowering the taxes and not printing money "out of thin air."

--Andrew Malcolm

*

It's long been one of McCain's favorite phrases -- describing himself as a "foot soldier in the Reagan revolution." By our count, he's worked it into tonight's debate three times. And as, over the next few days, he tries to seal the deal with distrustful conservatives and stake out a commanding lead in the GOP race, he's likely to use it again and again and again. At some point, though, he might want to seek out a speechwriter for a bit of variety in pledging his fealty to Reagan.

-- Don Frederick

*

Don, you're absolutely right on McCain's phrasing. Another favorite of his: "I'm proud of my record" and calling everyone, even those he clearly dislikes, "my friend." Sarcasm doesn't work on TV. McCain wasn't acting exactly like a frontrunner here. He's always performed best as the underdog, which he isn't anymore.

We'll see how he adjusts to that new role.

Maybe McCain should have read the item we posted at noon here today, examining how many times each candidate cited Ronald Reagan's name. The lesson there: It's dangerous this time around. Rudy Giuliani was the Ronald Reagan-name-citing-record-holder for the 15 major GOP debates, saying it 44 times, including 10 whole times in one single answer on Jan. 10. For the graphic presentation of this phrase in those debates, check out the work in that item by The Times' Ben Welsh.

Don, so who do you think won this one?

--Andrew Malcolm

*

Well, Andy, my nod for the best answer of the night goes to Paul who, after McCain and Romney sniped at each other over what seems at heart a matter of semantics -- whether Romney last year expressed support for setting timetables for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq -- noted that they were "arguing technicalities of a policy they both agree with."

He went on: "They agreed going in (to Iraq), they agreed for staying, agreed for staying how many years, and these are technicalities.  We should be debating foreign policy, whether we should have interventionism or non-interventionism, whether we should be defending this country or whether we should be the policeman of the world, whether we should be, you know, running our empire or not and how are we going to have guns and butter."

Overall, it's hard to see that any dramatic moment occurred that will derail the momentum that seems to be gathering for McCain so, in that sense, it was a successful evening for him.

-- Don Frederick

*

The complete debate transcript is available here.

Breaking News: Schwarzenegger to endorse McCain on Thursday

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has decided to endorse his good friend Sen. John McCain for the Republican nomination for president.

The California governor just told CNN he had nothing to say on the subject "today." But The Times' Evan Halper and Mark Z. Barabak have learned that an event is planned tomorrow when the Arizona senator will be endorsed by the California governor. Only recently Schwarzenegger had said he would stay out of the endorsement business until after the GOP primary season. That was out of deference to friends in the race.

But McCain's victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida, and Rudy Giuliani's withdrawal today changed the circumstances, according to the governor.

"Both guys have been very close friends of mine," Schwarzennegger told The Times' Seema Mehta this afternoon.

Arriving at the Reagan Library near Simi Valley for tonight's (5 p.m. PST) Republican debate,  which will be streamed live on this website, the governor praised both Giuliani ("a great man") and McCain, but said he had nothing more to add about an endorsement "today."

He did, however, confirm to Mehta that he had something planned for Thursday with McCain, probably an environmental event in the Los Angeles area. "That's all I have to say," the governor said.

--Andrew Malcolm

Photo: Ken James / Bloomberg News

Citing Ronald Reagan not so helpful this time around

Tonight's Republican presidential debate will be held in just a few hours at the Reagan Library near Simi Valley, where the late president is buried and his legacy is on display. (And it'll be live-streamed here on this website starting at 5 p.m. PST.)

Ronald Reagan's name has come up quite a bit in the ongoing struggle for the GOP presidential nomination as the candidates seek to assume the political mantle of the revered California Republican. That's perhaps understandable given the unpopularity of the current president, whose mantle no one seeks this election year.

But according to an imaginative analysis by The Times' Ben Welsh of the words spoken at 15 major Republican debates during the current campaign, citing Ronald Reagan is not only unhelpful. It may be severely dangerous to your political fortunes.

The political power of the Reagan name, like the broad coalition of social, political and economic conservatives he built, may be crumbling.

According to Welsh's analysis, the Republican candidate who invoked Reagan the most is the longtime front-runner who was among the least successful candidates this time, never winning one primary and apparently giving up his effort today -- Rudy Giuliani.

During those 15 debates, Giuliani mentioned the Reagan name 44 times, including one single marathon debate answer that included Reagan's name 10 times (see below.)

Of the remaining GOP candidates, Mitt Romney has cited Reagan 28 times, Sen. John McCain, the new front-runner, 21 times, Mike Huckabee, the yet-to-be-front-runner since Iowa 15 times and Rep. Ron Paul, the 10-term House member with the libertarian ideas, only five times.

--Andrew Malcolm

To read Giuliani's full 10-Reagan answer, see below....

A revived John McCain arrives with wins -- and money

The satirical newspaper The Onion recently headlined a timely political story: "Depressed candidate runs attack ad about himself." Well, that's not Sen. John McCain now, who arrives in Los Angeles today fresh from his primary victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida.

McCain is here for tonight's Republican presidential debate at the Reagan Library co-sponsored by The Times and streamed-live on this website.

But not only are McCain's political fortunes rejuvenated after a summer when he seemed near political death and flew alone back in the economy section of commercial flights.

His fortune's fortunes are rejuvenated as well. Aides say the McCain campaign has collected millions in donations as his wins have accumulated. Everybody likes a winner. This is actually not unusual. One source from the Barack Obama campaign told The Times campaign finance expert Dan Morain that the Illinois senator raised $500,000 in the first hour after the South Carolina polls closed for the Democratic primary last Saturday when Obama won an overwhelming 2:1 victory over Hillary Clinton.

Meanwhile, Mitt Romney continues to pour considerable amounts of his considerable fortune into his campaign. Even after losing Florida on Tuesday to McCain, Romney could joke to hundreds of St. Petersburg supporters, while The Times Seema Mehta looked on: "All you guys are family. Don't expect to be part of the inheritance," he continued to laughter. "I'm not sure there's going to be much left after this."

McCain raised $37 million during all of calendar 2007, placing him a distant third among Republican candidates behind Rudy Giuliani in second and Romney, the top GOP money-getter and self-donor.

And at the end of the year, according to papers he's just filed with the Federal Election Commission, McCain had a debt of $4.5 million. Because he is taking matching federal funds, but they had yet to be disbursed, McCain's camp had to take out a nearly $3 million loan at about 8.5% interest in order to stay afloat, according to Morain.

--Andrew Malcolm

Photo: Daniel Barry / Bloomberg News

Amid wannabe presidents, the real one visits L.A. today too

The remaining field of presidential candidates are congregating in Los Angeles today for a pair of debates co-sponsored by The Times, one for the Republicans tonight at the Reagan Library and one Thursday at the Kodak Theatre for the Democrats. (Both debates will be streamed live here starting at 5 p.m. Pacific.)

Meanwhile, this morning the sitting President Bush flies into LAX for an almost full day's visit in and around the airport. Actually, he'll be the standing president by the time he disembarks Air Force One.

Bush, by the way, did surprisingly well in collecting an audience for his final scheduled State of the Union address Monday night, which was carried live on nine TV networks to an average audience of 37.5 million people, according to ratings released Tuesday. Then again, there wasn't much else on.

Today, Bush will present Volunteer Service Awards to Marni and Berni Barta, a pair of students from Harvard-Westlake School who founded Kid Flicks to collect new and used DVDs to donate to hospitals and pediatric departments across the country.

Bush will also visit Robinson Helicopter Co. in Torrance to discuss the economy and trade issues.

He'll be gone by mid-afternoon to avoid the rush hour. And the debates among those folks who would like to succeed him.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Edwards and Nader: One out, one in?

John Edwards is apparently calling it quits. And it looks like Ralph Nader -- "Darth Nader" to Democrats who can't forget the 2000 showdown -- is thinking about joining the campaign circus. Again.

First, Edwards. If he does follow through with the reported planned announcement in New Orleans later today, the timing is curious. Edwards' 2008 campaign never really caught on, in large part because he couldn't get enough air to breath in a room in which Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama sucked up nearly all the oxygen. And he was further confounded by Obama's policies, which occupied much of the same populist ground that Edwards was standing on.

But why drop out now? Edwards' last loss was Saturday in South Carolina. His showing in Florida on Tuesday was irrelevant. And with Feb. 5 just around the corner, he might have been able to grab enough delegates to act as a drag on both of the other candidates.

Unless the one-time trial lawyer is planning to throw his lot in with Obama in an effort to stop Clinton's march to the nomination. Or, conversely -- and harder to imagine -- join up with Clinton to seal it for the New York senator.

As for Nader, the legendary consumer advocate ...

                                                                                              (Photo credit: Edward Gombert/EPA)

Hey, Ron Paul folks, Rudy Giuliani pays tribute to your guy

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who has been on the, uh, naughty list of all loyal, dedicated, fervent and vocal supporters of Rep. Ron Paul since he appeared to scoff at the Texan during one of the early Republican debates last year, gave a formal tip of the hat to the good doctor during his Florida concession speech last night.

As one result of that debate incident, which involved Giuliani taking offense at Paul's suggestion that Americans were at least partly responsible for 9/11 by their occupation and offensive actions against Arab countries, some Paulunteers have hounded many of Giuliani's public appearances with chants and sign-waving throngs. And they have often filled the comment section of The Ticket with scores of denunciations of the man who successfully turned life in New York City around.

These thousands have also reveled in the several times that Paul drew more primary or caucus votes than Giuliani in early states where the New Yorker did not seriously compete, starting with....

Romney steals some Giuliani thunder

It probably wasn't needed, but if Rudy Giuliani needed any extra motivation to enlist in John McCain's presidential campaign -- and thus probably hinder Mitt Romney's bid for the Republican nomination -- he got it Tuesday night.

Faced with his distant third-place finish in the Florida primary that he spent the last two months -- to the exclusion of virtually any other campaigning -- trying to win, Giuliani appeared before his supporters in the state to deliver what obviously was going to be his swan song. All the cable news networks were broadcasting it. And then Romney stepped on his message.

Giuliani was about two-thirds or so through his remarks, reaching the part where he would sum up what he had tried to accomplish in his White House quest, when Romney, the night's second-place finisher to McCain, began giving his concession speech to his backers. The cable stations cut to him -- Giuliani, after all, had collapsed as a viable candidate, while Romney clearly was still in the fight.

To some degree, Giuliani had only himself to blame. His wrap-up speech, much like his campaign over the last few weeks, had a wandering, undefined quality to it. Still, having the spotlight yanked from him before he was finished gave him one more cause for ill will toward Romney, the rival he sparred most frequently with back in those bygone days when he seemed a top contender in the GOP race.

-- Don Frederick

McCain's Veep prospects

With John McCain perhaps on the path to the Republican presidential nomination (and that remains a big perhaps, given the significant financial advantage Mitt Romney still enjoys over him), speculation inevitably has intensified about possible running mates for the Arizona senator.

A possible "fusion ticket" will continue to be bandied about, despite Joe Lieberman tossing cold water on it today. But as unpredictable as McCain can be, it's hard to imagine that even he would risk irretrievably alienating social conservatives by picking a pro-choice Democrat as his vice presidential candidate.

McCain, if he decides to aggressively woo social conservatives, obviously would give Mike Huckabee a look. The pair have frequently exchanged kind words during debates, causing some pundits to view Huckabee as actively vying for the No. 2 spot.

At the least, the longer Huckabee stays in a race it would take a miracle for him to win, the more goodwill he builds up ...

Hillary Clinton basks (but her airtime is limited)

Hillary Clinton and her campaign, understandably, sought to give her win in Florida's Democratic presidential primary tonight the trappings of a meaningful victory.

True, there was no actual campaign waged in the state because she and her rivals adhered to the request from national party officials that they steer clear after Florida broke rules established for the primary season and it moved its contest ahead of others. As a result -- and as the Barack Obama campaign was eager to stress -- no delegates were awarded.

Still, after a rough few days during she was routed by Obama in South Carolina and watched party icon Ted Kennedy gravitate to his side, why not celebrate? And so she did, traveling to Florida for a traditional victory rally.

Her showing did have meaning -- mainly as another warning to Barack Obama that his campaign has to work hard to neutralize her built-in advantage among white and Latino votes.

It wasn't important enough, however, for the cable news networks to stick with the victory speech she delivered shortly after the polls closed.

CNN, MSNBC and Fox News all aired the start of her remarks. But each cut away at various points to focus on the evening's more compelling story -- the Republican presidential primary.

-- Don Frederick

Breaking News: No Democrat wins any Florida delegates

The Barack Obama campaign had an unusually succinct comment this evening on Hillary Clinton's claim of victory in the so-called Florida primary. Clinton held a bizarre and ersatz victory party for the uncontested Democratic election.

"Thank you, Florida Democrats!" she shouted, hoping the gala scene would erase memories of her crushing defeat last weekend in South Carolina when she escaped to Tennessee rather than give a concession speech to Obama. "I am thrilled to have this vote of confidence!"

The Democratic National Committee had forbidden its candidates from campaigning in the state, suspending all its convention delegates as punishment for moving up its primary date, a move likely to be ultimately reversed by the nominee. The DNC issued the same punishment to Michigan, where all major Democrats except Clinton removed their names from the ballot.

But the Obama campaign had a reaction ready for the Clinton victory claim tonight. Obama press secretary Bill Burton issued a simple but pointed statement: "Obama and Clinton tie for delegates in Florida.  0 for Obama, 0 for Clinton."

--Andrew Malcolm

A fusion ticket? McCain-Lieberman. Uh, no.

Of course, first there's the minor hurdle for Sen. John McCain of winning the presidential nomination of his Republican Party. There still are a few other party members -- like Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and, for the moment, Rudy Giuliani -- who think they should be the nominee. And just a few dozen more primaries.

But just in case the delegate winner is John McCain and just in case the question comes up again later this winter, Sen. Joe Lieberman, a onetime Democrat of Connecticut, Al Gore's running mate in 2000 and a Democratic presidential candidate himself in 2004, has already taken himself out of the Republican VP race.

"I'd tell him," Lieberman told the Associated Press today, 'Thanks, John, I've been there. I've done that. You can find much better.' "

Lieberman endorsed McCain in December, has campaigned for him already in several states and intends to go back on the campaign trail for his Arizona friend again before Super Tuesday voting on Feb. 5. Lieberman, you may recall, was dumped by his own party in the 2006 primary over his support of the Iraq war, so ran and won as an independent who still caucuses with Senate Democrats.

The fourth-term senator said his endorsement of McCain was not an indication he would join the GOP.

That is no minor question. If Lieberman switched parties, the Republicans would regain control of the Senate.

Lieberman said if McCain won the GOP nomination, he would likely attend the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul. "I'd probably be more welcome there," he said.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Identity lacking among GOP candidates

Results from Florida this evening will likely bring some clarity to the Republican presidential race. And perhaps not a moment too soon, given results from several questions in the recent nationwide L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll that highlighted how the candidates generally had failed to establish a strong, clear persona among the GOP electorate.

The survey questions asked Republican-inclined voters to single out -- regardless of whom they favored for the party's nomination -- the White House contender they thought would perform best on specific issues.

The issues: Social concerns (such as abortion and gay rights), achieving "change" in Washington, the economy, tax policy, foreign policy and illegal immigration.

The findings: Only on one front -- foreign policy -- was any candidate named by more than roughly a quarter of those polled.

John McCain easily led, with 39%, as the candidate with the greatest capabilities in foreign policy. "Not sure" ranked second with 16% -- a finding that underscored the apparent failure of Rudy Giuliani's message to resonate. He offered himself as the candidate best able to combat terrorism, yet only ...

Obama seeks to avoid 'rude' tag

What's behind the concerted effort that the Barack Obama camp launched today to douse fevered speculation that he had intentionally dissed Hillary Clinton on Monday night as lawmakers gathered to hear President Bush's State of the Union address?

The scramble to insist that no snub was intended partly reflects the reality of wall-to-wall coverage of presidential races in both parties, an environment in which the slightest untoward word or movement gets analyzed and magnified.

But in their response, Obama and his aides almost assuredly recalled how a perceived lack of social graces during a debate in New Hampshire may have hurt him in that state's primary.

So it was that they moved quickly to provide a simple explanation of what happened Monday night: Blame it on Claire.

That would be Claire McCaskill, the senator from Missouri ...

McCain's senior assets in Florida

Take that, Chuck Norris.

His advancing years could actually help John McCain in today's Republican presidential primary in Florida, the Wall Street Journal reports. Norris, in his new role as political sidekick to Mike Huckabee in the GOP race, recently played the age card against McCain.

Here's the crucial statistic from the Journal piece: "Senior citizens account for 16.8% of Florida's population, compared with 12.4% nationwide, according to the Census Bureau, and are the most avid voters."

McCain, 71, would be the oldest person elected president. He usually tries to make light of that fact, often joking that he's "older than dirt."

-- Don Frederick

Lobbyist on, then off, Obama fundraiser invite

As he campaigns against evil Washington insiders, Sen. Barack Obama regularly points out that he shuns all money from “currently registered federal lobbyists.” Or so he says on all his fundraising invitations, including the one for his event at Avalon in Hollywood set for Thursday night.

Hey, as long as you're in the Golden State debating, why not pick up some change?

But the policy is one that has complicated Obama's life, from time to...

Parsing Bush's State of the Union words over 7 years

Here's something you can't do with your newspaper.

The Times' Ben Welsh has deconstructed online the most common words from every one of President Bush's seven State of the Union speeches and one Budget Address. They total 40,655 words and it took Bush six hours and 57 minutes to deliver them all over his entire term. (Although last night's address, the longest by 174 words, was likely Bush's last State of the Union, some presidents like Ford and Johnson have chosen to speak to joint sessions one last time just days before they leave office.)

Now, don't ask someone who blogs with two fingers how Welsh did this, but he's imaginatively created what's called a word cloud. You can find it here on this website. Using the president's own words and the frequency in which he uses them, it's an amazing and creative tool for even non-historians to measure right before their very eyes how national times and presidential priorities change over the years.

Notice how the words in Welsh's word cloud are different sizes; the more often they're used, the larger the type. Now put your cursor on the little thingy with the arrows that runs across the top of the type and drag it to the left. The dates of the speeches change.

You are literally moving back through time and all eight speeches. See how the words change in size. "America" and "Americans" are usually large as are words like "Congress," "health" and "must" because they're used so often, perennially. So was "Saddam" and "Hussein" and "weapons" back before 2003. Now, not at all.

"Al Qaeda" doesn't appear until 2002. "Security" appears more often as time passes. "Children" are there along with "health" and then "retirement."

You can detect your own patterns over the years. Feel free to offer your observations in the comments below.

--Andrew Malcolm

Correction: An earlier version of this post included a comparison of exact word counts between years that was mistakenly drawn from an incomplete draft analysis. It has been removed.