California's fastest-growing political party is: Neither

Here's a startling new political reality in California: Both the Democratic and Republican parties are losing market share.

The Times' inveterate digger Dan Morain has been exploring the state's political party registration figures and has found that the two main parties -- the Republicans and Democrats -- are steadily dwindling as shares of the broader electorate. The fastest-growing share of state voters is actually:  Decline to State.

Both Barack Obama and Ron Paul have already launched their political advertising in California. As this year's crop of presidential candidates begins ...

to focus even more on the Golden State, which has the richest lode of electoral votes, in advance of the Feb. 5 primary, the political implications of this social trend become clearer.

In 2000, registered voters who did not state a party preference accounted for less than 14% of the California electorate. Back then, Democrats accounted for 45% of the electorate and the Republicans 35%.

Today, nearly 20% -- one out of five -- members of the California electorate, or almost 3 million voters, decline to state a party preference. For whatever reason -- and we can guess a few that start with excessive partisanship and gridlock -- the Democratic and Republican parties are becoming a smaller part of the total electorate.

Democrats still hold a proportional registration edge over Republicans, 42.5% to 33.8%. But there are actually 85,000 fewer registered Democrats in California today than there were eight years ago, despite the population growth.

Under party rules, however, Democrats stand a better chance than Republicans of wooing the Decline to State segment to vote in their primaries, at least occasionally. The reason: Democrats permit Decline to State voters to maintain their nonaffiliated status but still request a Democratic ballot allowing them to vote in that party's primaries.

Not so with the Republicans. Decline to State voters cannot vote in the Republican primary without affirmatively switching their official affiliation to the GOP -- something relatively few seem willing to do. The party's thinking is that only registered Republicans should have a vote in choosing the Republican nominee. But political experts believe that position could hurt the Republican nominee come November.

It seems that voters who choose sides in the primary tend to stick with that party choice in the general election come November.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Comments

[Kyle in San Francisco]

This is the last week to make the party switch. Ron Paul is the pro-peace, pro-sound-money candidate. He is using the Republican Party as his vehicle for seeking the presidency. Only registered Republicans may vote for him in the CA primary on November 5. I will change back to Decline to State immediately after the primary. It's easy to switch! And it's fun to stymie the two-party duopoly.

Mr. Malcolm, thanks for the informative and timely article.

[Tannim]

OK, but what of the Libertarian, Green, American Independent (Constitution), and Peace & Freedom Parties? What are their numbers doing?

Full picture, please!

[H]

I think Kyle means in the California Primary on February 5th, not November 5th. Of course, Dr. Paul could be a write-in candidate in November.

I believe a Declined-To-State has the choice of Democrat or American Independent ballots. Green, Peace & Freedom, and so on, I think (please correct me if I'm wrong) use conventions, not primaries, to select their candidates.

[Jon K.]

I sure hope McCain wins the Republican nomination because as a lifelong Democrat I cannot and will not vote for Hillary Clinton. I am surprised at the intense visceral negative reaction I have to her and her calculating disengenuousness. It sickens me.

God, to have McCain and Obama running against each other. It would be first time in my life when one of the two major candidates did not produce serious concerns about the future of our country if they won. I sure hope this happens.

Dynasties are NOT Democracies.

[Carolyn]

My Gosh! Contrary to popular belief, it looks like Californians think for themselves.

[Garry B]

Ron Paul is a non conformist. He wants to abolish Social secuity,F.B.I,C.I.A . the dept of Education. He wants to legalize illegal drugs. In all the years as a Texas congressman he was never able to pass any bill that he supported. If he couldn't work with his peers in congress, what make anyone think he could change anything in Washington D.C.? Its sad that these young people but their hopes and dreams in this man. What a Con-man he as accomplish nothing in congress. While he made empty promise to his constituents. Check his political record. Thank-you

[James]

Please pass this on to everyone you can. The time for Change in America in now, and it’s up to us!

Dear Friends and Family,

As many of you know, I have been recruited by, and am now working for, Senator Barack Obama’s Presidential Campaign. I have just recently returned from Las Vegas where I was stationed for the Nevada Caucuses, and am now back in Los Angeles preparing for the largest primary election day in American history on February 5, 2008 (it’s right around the corner!) On that day voters in the state of California (and all over the Nation) will go to the polls, and their votes will contribute to the largest allocation of delegates to a candidate in the Union's history. (In plain english, the California primary on Feb. 5 is a huge deal, and we need your help!) Of course, Senator Obama is currently in a heated battle against Senator Hillary Clinton who is an extremely worthy candidate. That being said, I wanted to take a second to illustrate some of the key differences that have me and the Obama team believing that Barack is the best Presidential Candidate in the field.

1. HEALTH CARE
Despite all the bickering, all the democratic candidates have essentially the same health care plane with one major difference; Hillary wants to make it against the law not to have health care. That means that while health care is more affordable, US citizens will still have to pay for it. If they cannot they will be fined, essentially being punished for being poor. Barack's health care plan is rooted in the belief that all citizens want health care, will get it if they can, and should not be penalized for living in extremely challenging circumstances. At camp Obama, we believe this is a much more effective way of proceeding with our country’s current health care crisis.

2. EXPERIENCE
While many have used Senator Obama’s youth against him, the fact is, he has served in public office longer than Hillary Clinton. Senator Obama was first elected to the State Legislature of Illinois in 1996, and has served as a public official ever since. Senator Clinton was first elected to public office in the year 2000. There has also been a great deal made about Senator Obama’s age, but it should be considered that he will be nearly a full month older then President Bill Clinton was when he took office in 1992.

3. FOREIGN RELATIONS
It is universally accepted that there is no candidate in the field, either democrat or republican, who is better prepared to mend the American Image outside of our borders. Senator Obama is a strong advocate and firm supporter of America’s profound relationship with the Nation of Israel. He is passionate about wreaking havoc on the terrorists and terrorist organizations who threaten America's security, while maintaining that war and violence are a last resort. He is the only candidate to be 100% against the war in Iraq from the very start. He is committed to restoring America’s international position as not only the world’s most powerful nation, but also the world’s most respectable nation.

4. ELECTABILITY IN NOVEMBER
Imagine an America where on election day in November, you turn your TV to CNN, and watch as historically republican states such as Alabama, and Georgia, turn Blue in support of Barack Obama. That is the remarkable potential Barack gives us as our democratic nominee. If Hillary wins, you can expect a divided nation, with the election coming down to Florida and Ohio as usual. With Barack, it is entirely possible that the United States becomes more United then it has ever been in electing its President.

Be a part of this historic time in America by encouraging your friends, and place your own vote, for Senator Obama. The future is now, and a new leader is here. He is qualified, prepared, and driven by the desire to unify this country with its formidable values of dignity, hard work, and freedom.

FEB. 5, 2008. is the day.

Senator Barack Obama is the man.

See you at the polls.

P.S. For more information on these issue as others (including Barack’s exceptionally well received plan for the struggling US economy) go to: barackobama.com

Be sure to watch the Democratic Debate live from Los Angeles on CNN this coming Thursday night (January, 31).

If you would like to volunteer for the Campaign, please contact me ASAP via e-mail. I will make you a precinct captain, and put you in charge of winning your precinct for Obama! (my e-mail is: meandthegiantpeach@hotmail.com) Give your name, address, e-mail, and phone number, and you’ll be an active part of the campaign in no time! Hurry! The time is NOW.

And pass this information on!