Breaking News: A Ron Paul surge in Nevada

Boy, oh, boy! Hidden behind all the hoopla, headlines and the Nevada caucus victories of Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton is one little-noticed but stunning political development and number:

Ron Paul, the one-time Libertarian candidate and 10-term Republican congressman from Texas, was in second place. That's right, Second Place. The 72-year-old ob-gyn who's always on the end of the line at GOP debates or barred altogether, was running ahead of John McCain, Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, in fact, ahead of....

all other Republicans except Romney, who easily captured his second state in a week after Michigan.

Now, Romney and Paul were basically the only Republicans who actively campaigned and advertised in the desert state. But a win is a win. And second place is second place. When Romney won Wyoming a couple of weeks ago, Paul won zero there.

In Iowa, Paul also beat Giuliani and he topped Thompson in New Hampshire, where Paul was excluded from the Fox News debate, which only energized his fervent followers. His jump in GOP election standings comes despite recent reports about a long series of newsletters from the 1990s carrying Paul's name and numerous racist and anti-Semitic remarks. Paul has denied writing them and denounced their contents.

Thanks to those passionate and tireless supporters, Paul, the only Republican to oppose the Iraq war and favor significant dismantling of the federal government, won about 10% of the vote in Iowa and 8% in New Hampshire, coming in just behind the former New York mayor in the Granite state.

But in Nevada today with a poor Republican turnout of less than half the Democrats (just under 45,000 vs 115,000) and with 99.7% of the precincts reporting, Romney had 22,644 votes, or 51%. Paul had about a quarter of that, 14%, or 6,084 votes.

Paul built a slow steady lead of about 400 votes over the veteran Arizona senator's 5,648 total.

Huckabee sneaked past Thompson into fourth place with 8%, or 3,613 votes, a tiny vote lead over the former Tennessee senator, who had 3,518. Both had 8%. Giuliani, who's counting on a late-state surge to salvage his one-time now-faded national front-runner status, had only 4% of the Nevada Republican vote with 1,910 ballots. And California's retiring Congressman Duncan Hunter was last again with 2% or 890 votes.

Now, of course, comes tonight's South Carolina primary vote results where Paul needs to be a bit more realistic perhaps. He's got three campaign offices there and has advertised and campaigned actively. But McCain is well-known there, has been ahead in polls, relying heavily on his strong support in the state's large active and retired military population.

And, as in Iowa where he won the caucuses, Huckabee is counting on another large turnout among South Carolina Christian evangelicals. Polls showed the Baptist preacher narrowing McCain's lead in recent days and Thompson, the former senator who's got the most riding on a strong South Carolina showing to invigorate his sagging campaign, also gaining some.

It was reported to be snowing heavily in the state's Piedmont region, where the evangelicals are concentrated, and that could depress turnout, while McCain's coastal territory was getting some cold rain. Now, whose crowd gets more depressed? And can Thompson make a strong enough showing to stay in the race? He planned to return home to ponder the future with no campaign activities planned for coming days.

The results tonight will show whether Ron Paul's fine morning and afternoon turn into a nice all-around day or not. Either way, he was likely the top GOP fundraiser in the fourth quarter, raising nearly $20 million, and his website reports gathering in another $1.34 million so far this month. So while Giuliani stopped paying his top staff this month, Paul is likely to linger long.

Paul's crowd plans another "money bomb" on Monday when thousands will deliver new donations on the same day. One previous time they did this, the Paul campaign set a new one-day online record of $6 million.

--Andrew Malcolm

Comments

[Victor]

Well I sure hope the GOP realizes that it cannot win elections by writing off Ron Paul supporters and sympathizers. We need to return this country to its Constitutional roots of small government, low taxes, low spending, mind our own business, and trade fairly with others.

Someone mentioned voting for Obama to bring about change. Sorry but the change Obama wants to bring is just more socialism and big government. Nothing new there.

I am trying to figure out who my second favorite is and am having a hard time. Where is the GOP that used to be....?

[ron]

Hi,

Thanks for talking about Ron Paul. Despite his good results today in Nevada, a lot of the mainstream media continue to ignore Ron Paul.
Everyone should continue to be aware that freedom of the press is one thing but when the press goes from the business of reporting the news to interpreting the news then there is a risk that everyone's liberty is curtailed.

[Web Smith]

As others have said, Andrew, thank you for reporting the news in an unbiased fashion. I spent a considerable amount of time today trying to learn how Ron was doing in SC. It appears that NH is through with their recount and the numbers have changed slightly.

Nevada certainly does run and entertaining caucus with too few ballots, court appearances, last minute changes in locations, votes on the strip getting five times more delegates than other places, and GOP caucus managers telling their candidates to grow up not to mention Obama getting more delegates but having Hillary's loony smile plastered all over the news.

Many Republicans did not vote because they saw the announcement that Romney had won with less than 1/3 of the precincts reporting and Romney with about 56% of the vote. His percentage then steadily declined.

Polls are often wrong but hardly ever this wrong. I'm wondering who has enough control over their organization to make sure that they all get out and vote early to give the appearance that it's over. It would also be interesting to see what changes in demographics occurred leading up to the caucus including the demographics of the people heading up the GOP in Nevada.

This all seems at least a little strange. It will be interesting to see what happens in Idaho.

[Marilyn in Lake Jackson]

And to think Dr. Ron Paul delivered my babies years ago! What a day. Take my word for it, Dr. Ron Paul is the one who can lead this country.

[Frank Gamboa - Pasadena, cA]

Go Ron Paul 2008! I want freedom restored to this country and our troops out of Irag!

[Alison Murphy]

Wow! I love you guys so much- you obviously are not willing to endorse Ron Paul, but you COVER THE ISSUES, good and bad. That's fair coverage. Yes, it's just a blog but it does link to google news. It almost makes we want to move to LA (well not quite- but almost!)

Could you guys check out the New York Times please, before someone changes it? Somebody has to report on this outside the Ron Paul blogosphere, after all we are just conspiracy nuts! :oP

Where is Ron Paul? He's in 4th place by vote count total BEFORE Nevada and South Carolina, but he is not even on the page. (And yes, it's been pointed out to the newsroom and publisher.)

(Sounds like you've taken care of it. We'll let the NYT check on us.)

[michael kelly]

Viva Las Vegas. After a three hour street rally in the cold here in Albany, NY I was so pleased to read your article about Dr Paul's showing in Nevada. Kudo's to you and Ron's supporters in Nevada. Here in Albany, the street rally today was our best effort to date. Turnout for last week's Meetup Group meeting was the largest we've had by far. Many new members. We're making steady progress, but time is short . Please sign up be a Precinct Leader at ronpaul2008.com.

[ABCDEFUFOX]

HEY MANUAL LABOR, is that how you really feel or did you use thought when your fingers hit the keyboard. I challenge your hole digging mighty mouse brain to do some research on who owns the Federal Reserve. I know, you think it isour Government... Surprise ditch digger, it is not.... Did Romney say he was going to shut down the Federal Reserve. No!!! ONLY RON PAUL will do it. He will even do it for Manual Laborers....

(Yeh, well, hearty congratulations to you. Go take a long walk and calm down.)

[Max]

Duck Soup: Yes, Clinton and Obama can bring "change" to America... bad change. No thanks!

I am so glad that Ron Paul has rightfully and fairly earned 2nd place in Nevada. Hopefully this will catch the eyes and ears of Super Tuesday voters, inspiring them to vote for RON PAUL as I will!

[sandra]

This was the most truthful article on Ron Paul I have seen. I appreciate reading the news without bias and with the entire story covered. I saw a New York Times report with a chart of the votes of the Nevada caucus. They left Ron Paul off totally. It appeared with Romney, McCain, etc., and no Ron Paul. In order to even see Ron Paul's name readers had to click on it and a second page appeared with his name in another chart. I cannot tell you how much your truthful article meant to me. You join Ron Paul in my image of "honest" people. (I wrote you a previous complimentary comment to a previous truthful article but it would not post for some reason.) I will continue to read your columns and recommend them to my friends, family, and colleagues. Thank you so much!

(You're welcome and thanks for coming back. Sorry about that other Comment, but this one got through fine.)

[Brad Brown]

RON PAUL RON PAUL RON PAUL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! COME ON DONATE ON MONDAY! LETS KEEP IT GOING GUYS!

[Thomas A. O'Brien]

Thank you Mr. Malcolm for your continued fair and balanced coverage of the Ron Paul 2008 campaign!! I regret that I have become very cynical of the media lately...and it is always a real high point to read your pieces written in the best traditions of American journalism. You sir are both a gentleman and a scholar!!

You, your partner and the LA Times, are doing the right thing with not taking part in this media slander and blackout against Ron Paul. RP supporters never want favoritism from the media - only fairness. Your actions will be appreciated and remembered by millions. All supporters are consumers of goods and services and the backlash against those who abused their power will ultimately be seriously felt in the market place. Those that were ethical and profession will be the better for it in every way.

Anyway enough of that -many thanks once again for your decent ethic and excellent writing. We all look forward to your future stories. Cheers from northern Alaska!!

[Ron Moss]

THANKS FOR TRUTH. Thats hard to expect. Considering what they did to Andrew Jackson, back in 1835. He exposed the Bankers for what they were up to then. He paid off the national debt, and warned us to never do it again. Here we sit 70 some years later we have the mafia=ATF, the IRS and their UNfederal reserve unconstitutional family stealing our kids future income. We are tolerating it. We are the guilty ones. Don't let them get away with it. Google G. Edward Griffin and hear his interview with Norman Dodd. It all adds up. Elect Ron Paul to challenge the bankes moneyed aristocracy. Thanks again for the honest press. Ron Moss

[Thomas A. O'Brien]

Thank you Mr. Malcolm for your continued fair and balanced coverage of the Ron Paul 2008 campaign!! I regret that I have become very cynical of the media lately...and it is always a real high point to read your pieces written in the best traditions of American journalism. You sir are both a gentleman and a scholar!!

You, your partner and the LA Times, are doing the right thing with not taking part in this media slander and blackout against Ron Paul. RP supporters never want favoritism from the media - only fairness. Your actions will be appreciated and remembered by millions. All supporters are consumers of goods and services and the backlash against those who abused their power will ultimately be seriously felt in the market place. Those that were ethical and profession will be the better for it in every way.

Anyway enough of that -many thanks once again for your decent ethic and excellent writing. We all look forward to your future stories. Cheers from northern Alaska!!

[cin]

Thank you so much for writing this article. Dr. Paul is truly an honorable man! He has consistantly been ignored for being honest. Thank you fellow freedom fighters! I will not surrende!

[Brian S]

Thank you for writing about Dr. paul!
He would surley win if the mainstream media would discuss him more!

[Richard Brodie]

"Want to make a difference RP supporters? Want to change politics. Want to make your vote actually COUNT towards someone who wants change and can actually get elected President? Would love to hear your POV and hear your vote in who will bring more change to America - Clinton or Obama."

If Ron Paul does not get the nomination I will contribute to the election of Hillary Clinton by writing in Ron Paul's name. Why? Because her Marxist domestic agenda will bring total economic collapse to this country even faster than a neo-con Republican's continuation of our world wide empire. And if the American people are stupid enough to pass up this one last chance that Ron Paul's campaign is giving them, for a relatively painless and non-violent course correction, then I guess it is going to take complete chaos for them to finally wake the hell up!

[Bob Bowen]

All of you Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Romney, McCain,Thompson et al supporters, please watch this video made a couple of years ago by producer Aaron Russo (now deceased). It is on youtube and is about ten minutes in length: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8U-k_g56RA
In fact, everyone should watch this, because some of it is coming true now. Two weeks ago my fiancee received her new Passport and the RFID chip is in it. The chip for the body will be here before we realize that we have been had. Ron Paul has been fighting against this entire invasion of our liberty for several years. Also in this video is a bit about the Council For Foreign Relations (CFR) and guess who is a member? Really? ALL of those ? Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter and Dennis Kucinich are NOT on the list, so guess who has been relegated to non-coverage during this campaign ? Think about it people !!!! I think Jimmy Carter has been observing the wrong elections !!

[David Grieco]

Great article, thanks for the coverage. I just watched several news programs, including Hannity and Colmes, and as usual they mentioned every candidate but Paul. But second place, and not a word!? Come on! This conspiracy is so obvious it needs another name. The fact that he is doing as well as he is without an ounce of support from the media is remarkable. It is the political story of the year, if only it were written objectively. If only....it were written at all.

[Sue Gore]

You say Ron Paul won "zero" in Wyoming. Had Wyoming's system been other than "winner take all" Dr. Paul's influence could have been counted. In Fremont Country, for example, he lost by only one vote. His actual support here is strong.

(Well, great. But apparently not strong enough to win. Hence, the term zero.)

[Elizabeth]

What a sweet day for us in San Diego who spent the day making RP signs, having orientation meetings for our now 945 members, canvassing neighborhoods, putting up signs on roadways, and attending GOP meetings! Good job fellow Ron Paul supporters in Nevada! Way to go! And thank you, Andrew, for giving it straight WITHOUT the demeaning language spin we used to see!

I want to see this next: Ron Paul in one-on-one debates with all the other candidates! He would silence them all with his deep knowledge, brilliance, and wisdom. BRING IT ON!

What an amazing time to be alive!

[markustee]

Gosh, darn, guys, look at that. Someone that has a liberal streak and a yellow streak as wide as - yours - won second place in --- Nevada! Wow! Do you suppose sixteen people in Los Angeles know where Nevada is? (of course they do, it's in Las Vegas - next to the nickel slots...)

Breaking news! Tell the world! Blow the trumpets! Extra! Extra! Read all about it! RON PAUL COMES IN SECOND PLACE IN - where? Oh, yeah, that state next to you that has more cattle than people, and more illegal immigrants than citizens. The home state of that sterling example of leadership, "we have already lost the war" Harry Reid.

I used to live in Nevada, I know what and where it is. And it is a very small potato in a very large pot.

But, soon, you will need it's primary occupants to buy your newspaper, on account of this Pulitzer Prize winning reporting you do. How much do you suppose a sagebrush can afford for a newspaper subscription?

(Are you sure you took your meds today?)

[Sue Gore]

You say Ron Paul won "zero" in Wyoming. Had Wyoming's system been other than "winner take all" Dr. Paul's influence could have been counted. In Fremont Country, for example, he lost by only one vote. His actual support here is strong.

[Nate]

I would like to thank the LaTimes on giving a fair shot of media attention to a man most have written off as a nut, who I feel is one of the most intellectual individuals running. While most media sentries are boycotting him, you have shown what the media is supposed to be about. Fair and unbiased news coverage that isn't immature like some, those of which I will not mention.

Ron has a powerful message, I hope everyone takes something from it and I hope this continues to develop a revolution throughout the country. I really think the American people or at least a portion is really fed up with politics and this may spur change. Take care on the west coast.

from
Pgh. Pa.

[ForRonPaul]

Thank You, Thank You, Andrew for writing the facts and the truth and recognizing Ron Paul. You, alone, have restored my faith that their is at least one in the media that stands on his honor and believes in honest, just representation of the people.

Ron Paul and all his supportors commend you and bless you..

Ron Paul 2008 The only HOPE FOR AMERICA.