Breaking News: A Ron Paul surge in Nevada

Boy, oh, boy! Hidden behind all the hoopla, headlines and the Nevada caucus victories of Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton is one little-noticed but stunning political development and number:

Ron Paul, the one-time Libertarian candidate and 10-term Republican congressman from Texas, was in second place. That's right, Second Place. The 72-year-old ob-gyn who's always on the end of the line at GOP debates or barred altogether, was running ahead of John McCain, Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, in fact, ahead of....

all other Republicans except Romney, who easily captured his second state in a week after Michigan.

Now, Romney and Paul were basically the only Republicans who actively campaigned and advertised in the desert state. But a win is a win. And second place is second place. When Romney won Wyoming a couple of weeks ago, Paul won zero there.

In Iowa, Paul also beat Giuliani and he topped Thompson in New Hampshire, where Paul was excluded from the Fox News debate, which only energized his fervent followers. His jump in GOP election standings comes despite recent reports about a long series of newsletters from the 1990s carrying Paul's name and numerous racist and anti-Semitic remarks. Paul has denied writing them and denounced their contents.

Thanks to those passionate and tireless supporters, Paul, the only Republican to oppose the Iraq war and favor significant dismantling of the federal government, won about 10% of the vote in Iowa and 8% in New Hampshire, coming in just behind the former New York mayor in the Granite state.

But in Nevada today with a poor Republican turnout of less than half the Democrats (just under 45,000 vs 115,000) and with 99.7% of the precincts reporting, Romney had 22,644 votes, or 51%. Paul had about a quarter of that, 14%, or 6,084 votes.

Paul built a slow steady lead of about 400 votes over the veteran Arizona senator's 5,648 total.

Huckabee sneaked past Thompson into fourth place with 8%, or 3,613 votes, a tiny vote lead over the former Tennessee senator, who had 3,518. Both had 8%. Giuliani, who's counting on a late-state surge to salvage his one-time now-faded national front-runner status, had only 4% of the Nevada Republican vote with 1,910 ballots. And California's retiring Congressman Duncan Hunter was last again with 2% or 890 votes.

Now, of course, comes tonight's South Carolina primary vote results where Paul needs to be a bit more realistic perhaps. He's got three campaign offices there and has advertised and campaigned actively. But McCain is well-known there, has been ahead in polls, relying heavily on his strong support in the state's large active and retired military population.

And, as in Iowa where he won the caucuses, Huckabee is counting on another large turnout among South Carolina Christian evangelicals. Polls showed the Baptist preacher narrowing McCain's lead in recent days and Thompson, the former senator who's got the most riding on a strong South Carolina showing to invigorate his sagging campaign, also gaining some.

It was reported to be snowing heavily in the state's Piedmont region, where the evangelicals are concentrated, and that could depress turnout, while McCain's coastal territory was getting some cold rain. Now, whose crowd gets more depressed? And can Thompson make a strong enough showing to stay in the race? He planned to return home to ponder the future with no campaign activities planned for coming days.

The results tonight will show whether Ron Paul's fine morning and afternoon turn into a nice all-around day or not. Either way, he was likely the top GOP fundraiser in the fourth quarter, raising nearly $20 million, and his website reports gathering in another $1.34 million so far this month. So while Giuliani stopped paying his top staff this month, Paul is likely to linger long.

Paul's crowd plans another "money bomb" on Monday when thousands will deliver new donations on the same day. One previous time they did this, the Paul campaign set a new one-day online record of $6 million.

--Andrew Malcolm

Comments

[Jay Straw]

Good article. Very good article. You even mentioned the results of Duncan Hunter--fantastic article.

(Thanks. Hope to see you back here. And now, tonight, Hunter has dropped out.)

[af90640]

"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." Keep up the support for Ron Paul!!!

[NutriaKing]

Thanks for the attention to Ron Paul who is generally ignored by the national media despite his steady progress. Being a Paul supporter, I must of course take issue with something in this article :-) and that is the comment that "Paul is likely to linger longer." I hardly call what Dr. Paul is doing "lingering". He has maintained consistently decent and improving primary results, while so many others have dropped out completely (Browback, Tancredo, Gilmore, Tommy Thompson) and consistently beaten Keyes and Hunter. He's beaten Fred Thompson and even Rudy Giuliani multiple times and by big margins. Only Romney, Huckabee, and McCain are competitive against Ron Paul now.

This 2nd place finish in Nevada should add momentum to his campaign as re-enthused supporters donate more money and new supporters come on board now that they see that "he can't win" is not true.

Giuliani primary results have been pitiful and he has no money to pay his staffers anymore, so he'll be dropping out soon. Huckabee won't do well except in the Bible belt. McCain, I believe, is also nearly out of money. So this leaves a weak McCain, Romney, and a cash-flush Ron Paul as the candidates that will keep moving forward. Lingering indeed!

[matt]

Thanks Andrew.

[NH]

Please get a clue! No RP supporter worth his or her salt would turn to OBAMA or Clinton!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If they did it means they have no idea what RP Stands for.

[Steven]

Thanks for the article. I've been listening to Fox and CNN and MSNBC for an hour and haven't heard Paul's name.

Vote pro-freedom, vote pro-constitution, vote pro-life, vote pro-state's rights. Vote Ron Paul!

[Russ]

Ron Paul, why cannot people see that he is the only AMERICAN running?
Paul represents the values LOST in this country and our founding ideas.
Why are people so blinded by the major media, who has done everything to keep Paul from being taken seriously? Of course, it's the Israeli firsters and the
open door immigration and the broken rule of law that is now a rule of flaw.
We must somehow get this AMERICAN elected. Any other candidate is just a repeat of the old worn out destruction of everything American. Hillary and Obama, McCain and Julianus, are all worthless and have the agenda of another nation in mind. All others flip flop on the issues and will leave the doors open at the borders, continue to make war for Israel and continue to destroy America. Paul is the only choice for INTELLIGENT voters. Of course we see there is not intelligence left in America, if voting for Oboma and Clinton are indicators. But as long as the communist news network (CNN) can have their say or Foxxed up liar news, America will be deceived to vote for scoundrels. Way to go La Times, you seem to be fair, so I like that. Isn't that what America is all about after all? Keep reporting in an unbiased way and we will keep reading La Times.

[Herbert]

I thought that Romney is a Washington lobbyist's tool...

And just how many Great-Grandmothers does he have?

[Trent G.]

First comment: WOW, look at all the comments! When did you post this Andrew?

Second comment: Andrew, your blog keeps appearing in my browser (I am always scouring for RP articles). I am becoming a regular around here. Thank you for bringing a fresh perspective from your desk at LAT. I appreciate your views, as it is rare to find a read that is fact based and not biased or filled with the regular recycled rhetoric.

(Well, we're delighted that you've become a regular and hope you help spread the word to others about our blog. The article was posted at the time in the bottom left corner, earlier this afternoon when the near-final results became clear.)

[Scott from Oregon]

The real story is that Ron Paul came in second while SWIMMING UPSTREAM against the media and the regular GOP.

Like his views or not, you have to give him and his supporters their due for beating down EVERYBODY and making it this far.

Ron Paul has been a bright light in the whole process regardless of his current standings. The media has been shown for what they are. The old school GOP as well. America is looking under the nooks and crannies of its own self because of Ron Paul, and the vermin are showing up everywhere.

[NH]

Eric grow up...NONE of your suggestions for VP are any good -- that would mean Dr P sold out...then we would not support him.

ALL of your suggestions are CFR shills.

[Another Perspective]

I am not a Ron Paul supporter, but I think the larger story here is that the Main Stream Media IS blocking (blackballing?) a very popular candidate.

(Well, not here anyway. Welcome to Top of the Ticket.)

[JIVEWIRE]

Andrew Malcolm is a fair journalist who is objective. Thanks for having integrity.

RON PAUL for the LONG HAUL!

DONATE Martin Luther King Day Jan 21st!!!

[chere]

Thank you for the great article. CONGRATS to RON PAUL, CHAMPION OF THE CONSTITUTION!! Here's my Mark Twain quote about Ron Paul:

"In the beginning of a change, the Patriot is a scarce man, brave, hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, however, the timid join him, for then it costs nothing to be a Patriot."

Come Nov.2008 [3VOL] will be sworn in, & "We the People" have his back, from the WHITE HOUSE door to the CONGRESS FLOOR. Some have said that RP has tapped into the peoples frustration, But I think RP has tapped into the peoples HOPES. Desperation did NOT lead us to RP but INSPIRATION was our guide.

[Roberta]

Thanks you so much for this fair assessment of the Nevada primaries. I was monitoring the vote on 3 different sits and reporting to the blog on RonPaul2008.com. Let me tell you we were all jumping for joy and cursing the MSM for not mentioning Dr. Paul at all. At least you have given him a break and I appreciate it.

[Sam]

Thank you Andrew Malcolm for this article. Despite Ron Paul's second place finish in Nevada, the mainstream media refuses to talk about it or give him any air time. I commend you for your journalism.

[thetent.com]

AMERICA.
DO YOUR COUNTRY A FAVOR AND LOOK INTO RON PAUL

GOOGLE RON PAUL

[Julia]

Thank you for the honest and factual reporting. Congressman Paul is going the long run, which may change things quite a bit. He is against Nafta/Gatt and managed trade policies that have done a number on this nation, for protecting the borders, ending the unbelievably unsustainable military budget, which in this age and economy will surely help to sink this nation. He is for a strong, safe America. He served
on the Senate banking committee, actually reads all the legislation that comes before him and knows the true state of America. You will not hear him tell the American people what they necessarily want to hear, but what is desperately important for them to hear. Romney wants to increase troops by l00,000. Will it be your child included in that number? McCain is willing to commit America to a hundred years in Iraq, a nation that NEVER attacked us.
Hillary is talking gifts in a time where this nation is economically ready to sink, thanks to her globalist husband passing the Nafta/Gatt treaties. No wonder America needs healthcare! They need jobs too because of that! We need
our country back from the hands of these globalists and warmongers.
Ron Paul loves America and so do I. I will go with the one man who has
the most experience and the record of truth in what he says, backed up by years and years of voting records. I don't believe what politicians say in a race, I look into their records. That's why I am for Congressman Ron Paul.
Don't believe what they say about his followers either. Everyone I have met
are good, intelligent, thinking individuals that are supporting him and Congressman Paul is one of the most moral, thoughtful, humble and brave candidate
I'll ever see probably in my lifetime. He loves the constitution and so do many of us.

[George]

I really hope Ron Paul wins this thing. He's a refreshing change for this country. You know, instead of this so called 150 million dollar "stimulus" package that the current president wants to stimulate the economy with, why not just get rid of the income tax like Ron Paul wants to?? Talk about a stimulus! That would be about a 30-35% pay increase for everyone! That would definitely stimulate the economy!!

I'm voting for you Ron!

[jeff carruthers]

good job and thanks for the info. I will pass your name and paper along to others. I apologize for the few that run you in the dirt. At least you went against the main stream... as one mentioned earlier, we are frustrated at the media coverage....thanks again

(Thanks for spreading the word about Top of the Ticket.)

[Cynthai]

Thank you for the article Andrew! Ron Paul is the only candidate that will abide by the Constitution and the Bill of Rights which gives Americans their freedom in this country. He has a ten term track record of this for anybody that chooses to investigate. Paul is the Jefferson of our times. Dr. Paul is a amazing man that understands economic fiscal responsibility and wants to remove all unConstitutional bogus government agencies and give more money back to hard working Americans! Go Ron Paul!!!!!!

[Larry]

Thanks for noticing what I consider a victory in Ron Paul's campaign today. Funny how Fox news, nor CNN seemed not to notice. Maybe they'll notice tomorrow when Ron Paul breaks another online one day fund raising record. This is just the beginning! Ron Paul For President!!!!!!

[Scott]

Posted by Duck Soup:
"RP has tapped into something. People want the truth. They are tired of old style politics. Too bad RP is not viable. "

"Would love to hear your POV and hear your vote in who will bring more change to America - Clinton or Obama."

Here's my POV Duck Soup; Ron Paul is viable, very viable. And as far as Clinton or Obama, neither or bad change. But we'll take Obama as a running mate to beat Hillary, and Barack can learn from Ron Paul how to lead after his tenure, how's that?

[Kim Eisenhuth]

Great article and a great result in Nevada!! Go Ron Paul!!

[Paul Reszel]

Lincoln was caricaturized by the papers of his time as an ugly backwoods gorilla
and Ron Paul was insulted by an arrogant debate moniter about his "electability"--- because he was ENTIERELY DIFFERENT from the rest of the candidates.

I think he inadvertently hit on the answer to his question.
THAT is why people are attracted to principled Ron Paul --
-He is different from the smooth talkers. - who want to further lead America down the same path that has led too our Day of Reckoning .
The Gettysburg address lives on --not the two hour oration by the many words of Edward Everett. - and voters will forget the slick words of the machine candidates
Thank you for noticing a great patriot in the mold of our fighting forefathers