Pew study sees growing power of Hispanic vote

While most of the political world focused today on Mitt Romney's effort to defuse rumors and pitfalls posed by his Mormon faith, the Pew Hispanic Center issued a detailed survey examining a subject with much greater long-term ramifications for future campaigns. And the results are not good news for Karl Rove, Ken Mehlman and other Republican operatives who have publicly worried that their party is stiff-arming an increasingly crucial voting bloc.

The poll of 2,003 Latinos at least 18 years of age, conducted this fall, found that among those registered to vote, 57% aligned themselves with the Democratic Party, compared with 23% for the Republican Party. The 34-percentage-point advantage for the Democrats compares with a gap of just 21 points a little more than two years ago.

The report duly notes that the political clout exercised by Latinos remains markedly less than it could be. While making up roughly 15% of the U.S. population, Latinos — based on eligibility to vote and past turnout rates — will make up only about 6.5% of those who cast ballots next November, according to the study.

Still, as strategists in both parties well know, the Latino vote has the potential to help pry away from the Republicans three states — with a combined 24 electoral votes — that George W. Bush carried in 2000 and 2004: Arizona, Colorado and Nevada.

One statistic underscores how the influence wielded by Latinos will only grow — perhaps dramatically —in the next few election cycles. As of this September, the report says, more than one-third of the estimated 45.5 million Latinos living in the U.S. were under 18. Some won't be eligible to vote when they come of age because they are not citizens. But many, many are — and before long will be registered.

Amid the glad tidings for Democrats in general, the poll sounds a discouraging note ...

for one in particular. Here's that finding: "Fewer than one-in-six Latino adults surveyed are aware that one of the 2008 presidential hopefuls is Latino, and only about one-in-eight (12%) are able to name that candidate -- New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson."

Awareness of his ethnicity rises slightly among the registered voters surveyed, to about 17%.

At this stage in the campaign, what counts more for Richardson are strong showings in Iowa and New Hampshire. Surprises in either by him likely would cause Latinos nationwide to take notice. But in neither can he count on Latinos to propel his candidacy. The Pew study estimates that in both, the size of the voting-eligible Latino population barely exceeded 1% in 2006.

The report is chock full of pertinent data on the changing face of America. You can peruse all of it here.

Also today, Democrats scored a coup when a powerful Latino clergyman joined with party chairman Howard Dean to denounce the Republicans' harsh rhetoric on illegal immigration.

The Rev. Luis Cortes, a political independent who founded the National Hispanic Prayer Breakfast and a visible ally of President Bush's re-election campaign in 2004, joined Dean on a conference call with reporters, including the Times Peter Wallsten, to lambaste the GOP's presidential candidates. Cortes predicted that many evangelical Latinos who backed Bush in 2004 are likely to abandon the GOP in 2008.

Cortes' remarks came on the eve of Sunday's Spanish-language debate, to be televised by Univision, among the top Republican contenders. In recent encounters, two of the leading candidates, Romney and Rudy Giuliani, have jockeyed to appear the most fervently opposed to illegal immigration.

"The harder the rhetoric becomes at this national debate the Republicans are having, the more depression we're starting to find in local communities," said Cortes, whose Philadelphia-based organization Esperanza USA has 10,000 affiliate churches.

--Don Frederick

Comments

[tucanofulano]

Now are these "Hispanics" American citizens or are they Illegal Aliens. If citizens they are Americans, If Illegal Aliens they are criminals.

[Brittanicus]

Of course there are racists, bigots on both sides of the illegal immigration invasion? Nothing has really been attained in three decades and unlikely to show any headway in future Congress. Whatever side of the fence you stand, it should be remembered this is not about a persons skin color, race or religion. It is everything, completely and utterly about Americas economy. As Citizens and legal residence lose their jobs to foreign nationals earning sub-standard wages, who is going to buy products? The globalist, open-border, free trade agreement has become a nightmare, as more and more padlocks seal off dead and abandoned factories and industrial businesses. Outsourcing has become a pestilence of the International globalists, as have their true agenda of the free-movement of illegal foreign labor. Read the British and European newspapers to see of the unrealized consequences of large volumes of cheap foreign labor. Under EU rules countries within their treaties have no choice in the matter of being forced by free market mandate, to accept cheap foreign labor. Then ask the English people what they think? Continental France is a good example of upheavals to come in our own nation. Yes! of course there are racists, but not the 70 percent of the American taxpayers who are genuinely furious and frustrated having to deal with this problem.
Co-Incidently, the pro-illegal foreign national people, scream racism and are able to silence average persons cringing in dark corners from offering their opinion. Like me in the 1980's was hit with a frozen can of soda, outside the Federal building in Los Angeles. Those individuals that deny my right to "FREE SPEECH." is the TRUE RACIST!

To most honest, average American, its not anything to do with the Hispanic settlers, people from South America, the Pacific Rim, from Asia or even Europe. If you come here legally, then you are welcome and entitled to strive for the American dream? America have rules that have been approved by the majority of the people, through our public Servants (Politicians). Without the "RULE of LAW" this nation would fall into anarchy and civil disobedience. If a citizen breaks the law, however minor he must face the consequences? Any foreign national who breaks a law, must also brought to justice--civil or criminal? Legal immigrants or citizens should follow the laws of all Americans? Just because they have a person in their family circle who broke immigration laws, should not coerced into breaking THE PEOPLES law. They should not resent or grow angry at the taxpayers, because it is not personal in most cases. They should not vent their anger at any political party, because some are actually--trying---to make legal citizens and permanent residence a better future.

In the coming Iowa Caucases and state primaries, we will see who has the real strength? The anti-Constitution entities who use the race card, to try and attain their objectives through threats and intimidation? Or the American people who see this incessant invasion as a serious danger to their future economy?

[Beth]

QUOTE: Now are these "Hispanics" American citizens or are they Illegal Aliens. If citizens they are Americans, If Illegal Aliens they are criminals.

Is that a question or a statement? If "English" is your "primary" language, then you should have "learned" in middle school how to "properly" phrase a question and use "punctuation" to clearly state the unheard inflection of written text. Then "we" would know if "you" really have a genuine concern or if you are simply "alluding" or possibly "suggesting" that the above referenced voters may not count in this dialog. It's hard to tell, because your use of "quotation marks" does not clarify your intent to use the term "Hispanic" as a "noun" or as an "adjective".

On the other hand, if English is NOT your primary language, you might exercise the Google or similar search engine and find a tutorial source on how to speak/write proper English... as it is a requirement in our society to do so.

As for the next comment... I saw lots of words, but all I heard was "blah blah blah". I think you got carried away with the cut & paste from the other anti-immigration sites... because some of the groups of words looked familiar... but no more credible.

Before you complain about me... a weak little ol' southern girl picking on you because I have such a bleeding heart, let me just clarify: I'm a pro-life, gun-toting, conservative, Christian, life-long Republican who will probably write in a dead president's name in protest to pathetic choices we have, and much of that sentiment is driven because the rhetoric behind the immigration debate has become the tail that wags the dog. Early surveys (a few years ago... when the "war" was going "okay" showed that Americans COULD show compassion for fellow humans under certain circumstances. And dialog like you folks stimulate made it almost criminal to express that sentiment. How completely UN-American.

[Louis Olivas]

BARRACK OBAMA FOR PRESIDENT

As a Hispanic and long time supporter of Democratic causes, I was dismayed of what happened last week particularly this weekend regarding Bill Clinton, former president, and Hillary Clinton, candidate for president of the United States. I am not saying that Bill and his wife are racists. But it seems from what I heard them say, is that they use minorities, African Americans and Hispanics to further their glory. Bill used it effectively among blacks in the 90’s and now that we are entering a new era, Bill is very disillusioned because Hillary lost South Carolina big time, causing him to make this infamous remark, “Of course Barrack Obama won South Carolina, so did Jesse Jackson and yet he never won the nomination.” That is a very poor taste comment coming from an ex-president who is suppose to act like an elder statesman instead of a spoiled brat who cannot accept losing once in a while.

Let’s face it; the leading Democratic candidates’ issues are basically the same. They are progressive and offer greater hope for our future. However, only one of these three candidates CAN be nominated for president. Based on what I just said about the Clintons and the fact that Edwards is long shot, there is only one left. This candidate was recently endorsed enthusiastically by Ted Kennedy and his niece Caroline. Al Gore is going to be issuing a similar statement. This candidate is Barrack Obama. He has campaigned diligently and stayed above the fray. I urge all Hispanics and other non-Hispanics to cast their vote this Super Tuesday for Barrack Obama. He is seeking office, not for his own personal glory, like the Clintons are, but to bring about change that we have all hungered for these last few years. Furthermore, the latest polls show that Obama leading McCain and Romney in the general election. McCain is leading Hillary by 9 points and Romney leads Hillary by five points. Let’s get out the vote and urge others to vote to Barrack Obama. I am enthusiastic for him and hope you are too.

Louis Olivas
233 Eva Way # 14
Talent, Oregon 97540
Louisolivas@peoplepc.com