Parsing the new N.H. polls

The most intriguing aspect of the new Washington Post/ABC News poll in New Hampshire may not be the tightening it shows in the Democratic presidential race. Rather, its importance might involve the question it raises: What is Hillary Clinton's ceiling of support?

The Post/ABC survey gives Clinton only a single-digit lead over Barack Obama among likely Democratic voters, 35% to 29%, followed by John Edwards (17%) and Bill Richardson (10%). In a bit of good news for Clinton, the pollsters report that her supporters are more loyal and committed than the backers of other candidates.

Still, the numbers mean that almost two-thirds of those New Hampshirites intending to vote in the state's Democratic primary are outside the Clinton camp. That may be the figure worth focusing on.

Given how long she's been on the public stage -- and the presumption throughout much of this year that she was the odds-on favorite for her party's nomination -- it would seem that most voters would have made up their minds by now whether they are for her or against her.

If that's the case, how much more can her number grow? With polls such as this one undercutting the "inevitability" notion surrounding Clinton, isn't it more likely that Obama would benefit from defections by those supporting Edwards or Richardson, if either or both underperform in the Iowa caucuses?

Another new poll of likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire, this one by the New York-based Marist Institute, gives Clinton more breathing space -- a 14-percentage-point lead over Obama, 37% to 23%. And a new Zogby poll makes it Clinton 32%, Obama 21%.

But again, in each, note the vast numbers lined up behind someone else.

-- Don Frederick

Comments

[vwcat]

With all the current missteps by the HRC camp, and today it was disclosed that a Iowa campaign chair has been emailing out those muslim smear letters on obama. It is still unfolding, but, this could be a huge problem.
And she doesn't have the class to apologize for it.
Actually, she's said nothing.
You couple this with all the embarrassing things that have happened this week from her camp, I suspect we will see more movement away from her.
And strategic vision now has a poll out in Iowa. Obama is leading 32 to Clinton and Edwards tie of 25.

[Donovan]

vwcat, give me a break. What about Obama's history of not taking a stand on issues like abortion and guns. He has a pattern of voting "present" instead of standing on principle. This from a guy who said as President, you have to be bold and unafraid of "polls."

[Ralph Dreifus]

Only a total and utter fool would vote for Hillary Clinton. She is a liar and as unethical as any politician that has ever run for public office in this country.

White Water way back before her husband was president. The only experience she has, is she has honed her skils as a unethical liar. The best race for president we could have in this country is Huckabee & Obama.

Regardless of who won the election the country and the people would win. Both men have ethics and integrity. Hillaary Clinton has none shhe is the queen of the culture of corruption in Washington DC

[Polleeeeeese]

Framing your poll analysis by highlighting the #s not supporting Hillary Clinton is a red herring if there ever was one. In a crowded field the front-runner seldom, if ever, has a majority support.

You couldn't have slanted your analysis any further.