Opinion: On-again, off-again electoral initiative may be off for good

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It was on, then it was off, then it was on again, sort of. And now the proposed California Electoral College initiative that could have tilted the 2008 presidential election toward the GOP nominee is back on life-support.

Having difficulties raising the $2 million needed to pay petition circulators to collect voter signatures, Republican backers of the measure targeted for the ballot in June 2008 were considering their options this morning, including letting the measure die once and for all.

Consultant Dave Gilliard, managing the drive, said in an e-mail Wednesday night to The Times’ Dan Morain that the campaign is “still in a money crunch.”

“The June ballot is looking like a long shot,” Gilliard’s missive concluded.

If approved by voters, the initiative would have altered California’s winner-take-all system of assigning its 55 electoral votes. Instead, electors would have been allotted based on the victor of individual congressional districts. Since Republicans hold 19 of the state’s 55 congressional seats in California, the GOP presidential candidate could be expected to have a good chance of winning at least 19 electors, possibly enough to assure the Republicans would hold onto the White House.

Democrats would have fought the measure fiercely anytime. But the measure had the best chance of passing in June when turn-out likely will be lighter and tilt toward loyal Republican voters.

If the measure, in fact, is near death -- backers had pronounced it all but dead once before -- a few possibilities remain.

A financial angel could revive it by showering sufficient money into the cause that petition circulators would press to get it on the ballot. Of course, that hasn’t happened yet. Besides the deadline passed last week to submit petitions to elections officials who would determine whether supporters gathered the necessary 434,000 valid signatures of registered voters.

Another possibility: Backers could place the initiative on the November ballot. That itself is dicey. More Democrats are expected to go to the polls in November, making passage even more difficult. If it were to pass, the measure might not take effect until 2012--defeating the goal of affecting the 2008 presidential election.

(UPDATE: Late this morning Ed Rollins, the initiative campaign’s strategist, told Morain, ‘We are not quitting yet. It does look bleak for June ballot but still trying. Definitely a go for Novemeber if we miss.’)

--Andrew Malcolm