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Mike Huckabee's strange day -- marked by the unusual news conference where he discussed a negative ad he won't be airing -- is ending on a high note: the just-released Des Moines Register poll shows him ahead, by six percentage points, over rival Mitt Romney in the Republican presidential race.
The survey also contains good news for Barack Obama, putting him on top in the Democratic contest. The poll, which has had a solid reputation for accurately gauging what will happen on caucus night, gives him a seven-point lead over Hillary Clinton and an eight-point edge over John Edwards. Within two hours Obama's campaign had turned the encouraging new numbers into another fundraising appeal.
The Register's numbers and its analysis can be found here. And a summary of the most recent poll results in Iowa can be found here and here.
(UPDATE: Late this evening, running an hour late, The Times' Maria LaGanga reports, Obama appeared at a jammed rally at Iowa State University in Ames. He launched into his standard stump speech. After nearly 22 minutes, he added: “Apparently the Des Moines Register is coming out with a poll tomorrow. (We're) up six points, maybe it’s seven. Six or seven. It’s beyond the margin of error. So we might just pull this thing off. We might just pull this thing off, Iowa. Who would have thunk it.” The raucous crowd went wild. Obama didn't.
(Meanwhile, in downtown Des Moines, according to The Times Seema Mehta, the three Clintons returned from a rally to the Hotel Fort Des Moines and wandered through the lobby. Hillary and Chelsea made a bee line for the elevator while Bill stayed behind to mingle with New Years revelers spilling out of the bar wearing funny hats and seeking photographs with the ex-president.)
-- Don Frederick
A few minutes ago a top campaign aide for Hillary Clinton told The Times' Dan Morain that her campaign has now passed the $100 million fundraising level.
The fourth quarter of 2007 ends tonight at midnight, although campaigns need not report their official sums to the Federal Election Commission until Jan. 31. But the New York senator is the first to claim the $100 million mark that was widely considered the 2007 financial bar for serious candidates.
The aide to the Democratic front-runner did not disclose the exact amount she raised in the last three months. But given that she had amassed $80 million in the first three quarters, the junior senator brought in at least another $20 million in the final quarter. Barack Obama's campaign has not released its fourth quarter numbers, but it raised $78 million in the first nine months of 2007 so the two candidates lkiely remain close in incoming financial resources. Without citing specific sums, Obama officials told supporters today they would have more than the $100 million necessary.
The fourth quarter is a typically tough period to hit up donors for political money. Many contributors are more focused on holiday celebrations than politics. And with the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary just days away, candidates are more focused on actual campaigning than on raising campaign cash. Still, this carefully timed news can play to the inevitability factor that the Clinton campaign has sought to cultivate all along, as well as help counter attention to a new Des Moines Register poll tonight showing Obama increasing his lead over Clinton.
Comparing Clinton's $100 million-plus feat to times past, Democrats raised a combined $57 million in 1999, the last time there was no incumbent. Republicans, led by then Texas Gov. George W. Bush's $65 million, raised $108 million combined eight years ago.
Four years ago, in the 2003 calendar year before the general election, all of the Democratic presidential candidates raised a combined $128.9 million, while President Bush used the power of incumbency to raise $128.8 million alone, according to FEC records.
--Andrew Malcolm
As the old year faded away today and the hours until the crucial Thursday Iowa caucus dwindled, a cautious Hillary Clinton was taking no chances with unplanned questions. She's reverted to her "Don't ask" policy of recent days when she refused to take questions, especially when they concerned one of her supporters, Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, dissing the Iowa caucus process.
But she was more than happy to talk about risking her life on first lady missions during her husband's presidency.
The Ohio governor has been traveling around Iowa in recent days positively brimming with such good cheer you wonder why he doesn't just move to the Hawkeye state. “It is wonderful to be in the great state of Iowa," he says to crowds including The Times' Seema Mehta.
"I think Ohio and Iowa have much in common. We have wonderful people, salt of the earth folk who know how to work hard, who are patriotic, who care for their family and their community, support their churches, contribute to charity. I am so pleased and proud to be here as the governor of the state of Ohio.” And then he introduces his favorite senator from New York, Clinton.
Unfortunately from a public relations point of view, Strickland said something else....
Read more Clinton says she risked her life as first lady »
If Republican Rudy Giuliani defines one way of dealing with Iowa -- i.e., blow it off -- Democrat John Edwards provides an example of the other extreme.
From the start of his current presidential quest, Edwards and his staff have made no bones that his fortunes will likely rise or fall on how he does in Thursday's caucuses. He began with a core of backers from his 2004 campaign, when he ran second in the caucuses (which helped him garner his party's vice presidential nomination). And he has worked tirelessly to expand his support.
That "tirelessly" point now will be accentuated.
On Tuesday, with the New Year just barely begun, Edwards will embark upon a 36-hour trek across Iowa, billed as a "Marathon for the Middle Class." And just to keep everyone on their toes, the campaign promises that each hour of the trip -- at events and at johnedwards.com/iowa -– the candidate will spotlight a specific step to help the middle class.
The schedule calls for Edwards to pass through 15 of Iowa's 99 counties: Appanoose, Cass, Des Moines, Henry, Jefferson, Johnson, Lee, Linn, Polk, Pottawattamie, Poweshiek, Story, Union, Wapello and Webster. The journey will culminate with a rally late Wednesday in West Des Moines, where Edwards will share a stage with one of his high-profile supporters, singer and songwriter John Mellencamp.
Edwards is hardly the first candidate to wrap up a hard-fought campaign by inflicting sleep deprivation on himself, aides and those covering him. Perhaps most famously, Republican Bob Dole hit the road nonstop during the final 96 hours of his 1996 bid to unseat then-President Bill Clinton. (Here's a story from mid-tour.)
Edwards will be hoping for a better result from his jaunt. Clinton swamped Dole in the electoral vote, 379 to 159.
-- Don Frederick
At least one presidential candidate has decided to kick back during the last gasp of the holiday season. The motivation, however, may have more to do with political realities than tradition.
The schedule for Republican Rudy Giuliani shows he's off today and Tuesday. Maybe he's a hard-core fan of college bowl games. More likely, he simply recognized that spending his time in Iowa -- like virtually every other presidential contender -- would be pointless.
Indeed, Giuliani clearly has written off the Hawkeye State (despite a brief tour there Saturday). When he resumes campaigning Wednesday, he'll be in New Hampshire. And on Thursday night, when dutiful Iowans troop off into the cold to attend their caucus sites and officially kick off the nominating process, Giuliani will be in Florida (with a small, but no doubt grateful, contingent in tow).
Iowa, where evangelicals are an especially key component of the GOP, always was a bad match for a candidate trying to get his party to ignore his liberal positions on social issues and concentrate on his commitment to fighting terrorism. Giuliani's indifference toward Iowa was signaled when he took a pass on competing in the summer's Republican straw poll. (State party members returned the disinterest: He got barely 1% of the vote in the contest.)
The question that long has surrounded the Giuliani strategy is whether a pathetic showing in Iowa will create a negative snowball effect for him, leading to such poor showings in the high-profile primaries that quickly follow -- New Hampshire and South Carolina -- that his political stock will be severely damaged by the time Florida Republicans vote on Jan. 29.
While he's resting, Giuliani can content himself with one bit of positive press: He was endorsed today by a New Hampshire newspaper, Foster's Daily Democrat.
-- Don Frederick
You can tell a lot by a politician's schedule, which may be why Hillary Clinton's first lady schedule and documents are still locked in the Clinton presidential library. It's probably why Vice President Cheney never got around to releasing his meeting schedule on those long-ago energy consultations.
When you're a candidate, a daily schedule can reveal your whereabouts, goals and political intentions, which can attract protesters, tip off opponents on what you're up to or provide insight on how hard you're working some days. Which is why most presidential campaigns release schedules only a few days in advance, largely to obtain media coverage. And they intentionally leave time gaps, which usually means they're secretly wooing someone for money or support in person or by phone.
Mike Huckabee's schedule this year, for instance, has consistently revealed a reliance on free media appearances, which typically reach a broad audience, allow him to project his genial on-air personality (honed, not accidentally, by his long radio experience) and, did we mention, such free appearances don't cost him any money.
Sunday, for instance, by sitting in a Des Moines chair for 30 minutes, Huckabee reached an influential national television audience on "Meet the Press," allowing him to charge his main Iowa opponent, Mitt Romney, with "running a very desperate and, frankly, dishonest campaign," which on a slow news day allowed Huckabee to generate gobs of further free news stories across the nation. Then he went to church and, out of sight, taped some last-minute campaign ads.
This likely reflects the former governor's weak fundraising. The fourth quarter doesn't end until midnight tonight, so it'll be a couple of weeks before each campaign's official figures...
Read more What Mike Huckabee's schedule really reveals »
Another day closer to the Iowa caucus and another several events in towns that merge into a gray blur and hundreds more eager faces in the crowds listening intently to every word the candidates say, as if it's the first time they've ever said them to such a group instead of the 800th.
And then something comes out of left field.
Today in Knoxville, Iowa, The Times' Maria LaGanga was watching Barack Obama take questions from the crowd unlike a certain fellow senator from New York. The unusual question came from a woman who described herself as a Republican. She said she has “enormous respect” for Obama because her daughter, “an Obama girl,” is volunteering for the senator from Illinois.
The woman had only one question on this chilly Sabbath morning: “What separates you from Mitt Romney?”
“That’s a very long list,” Obama replied, laughing. ”Let me say this. Mitt Romney is a very handsome guy. He is taller than me. I was listening to an interview this morning and somebody asked him has he ever cursed.
“And he said, 'Well, of course, but not the real harsh ones,'” according to Obama's account. Then, the politician from Chicago's South Side made a public confession. “I have to tell you," he said, "I have used some really harsh curse words. The really good ones, the juicy ones.”
Seriously, though, most of the Republican contenders, Obama said, “seem to be looking for a continuation of Bush-Cheney policies…There is going to be a very clear choice between myself and any of the Republicans.”
And on that you can bet your sweet #a$&**g!%.
--Andrew Malcolm
To take audience questions or not?
As she wrapped up a frenetic day of campaigning in Iowa Saturday, Hillary Clinton began leaving it up to those who had come to see her.
In Dubuque, The Times' Seema Mehta reports, the Democratic presidential contender asked a crowd of hundreds of supporters spilling out of a ballroom whether they wanted to ask questions or take pictures and sign autographs. One man shouted out “autographs!”
“Okay, ask me your questions at the rope line,” she replied.
At the next rally -- the day's last -- in Manchester, Clinton offered the same choice, and the result was never in doubt.
"I can take a few questions, or I can come out and shake hands," she said. "What do you think? Come on out? Okay!"
Earlier, at an event in, appropriately, the town of Clinton, she veered from the "don't ask" policy she's followed of late and let the audience fire away. One of the queries focused on Pakistan, and she used the occasion to scold President Bush. His dealings with the country, she said, have "put way too much emphasis on [President Pervez] Musharraf instead of dealing with broader Pakistani society."
-- Don Frederick
Another small confirmation that Iowa is the center of the political universe (at least for a few more days): Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa landed in Des Moines on Saturday afternoon and promptly set to campaigning for Hillary Clinton (who he long ago endorsed in the Democratic presidential race).
Villaraigosa hit a couple of supermarkets and met with Asian community leaders. His pitch: That in the "deepest and most talented field of Democratic candidates since I have been voting [1972], Sen. Clinton is still head and shoulders above the rest."
The words he repeated most: character, experience and strength.
Villaraigosa's commitment impressed some of those he encountered.
"So you flew in from Los Angeles, wow!" said college dean Glenna Ewing, on meeting hizzoner in the snack aisle of a Dahl's supermarket in Des Moines.
Actually, he arrived from Aspen, where he had skied with his children.
Ewing is precisely the type of voters campaigns hope to influence through surrogates -- she said she was having trouble deciding between Clinton and Barack Obama. Villaraigosa, however, apparently failed to earn his airfare in this instance -- after chatting with him, she still seemed to lean toward Obama because of, as she put it, "the change thing."
The mayor will continue his Iowa tour through New Year's Eve day. Then he goes back home for an appearance in the Rose Parade, before releasing statistics that he said would show "amazing" decreases in crime in L.A.
As for New Year's resolutions, Villaraigosa -- whose 2007 has been marked by personal tumult -- didn't say. But he was toting a copy of "The Voice of Knowledge: A Practical Guide to Inner Peace."
-- James Rainey
Increasingly buffeted by attacks from the Mitt Romney camp (here's one of the latest), Mike Huckabee on Saturday responded in part by repeatedly urging reporters covering his Republican presidential campaign in Iowa to examine the details of his 10 years as governor of Arkansas.
One problem: His gubernatorial records are not publicly available.
Electronic records were destroyed by his aides as he left office (more about that here). And the paper records were donated to his college alma mater, which has not made them available.
The Times' Joe Mathews visited that school, Ouachita Baptist University in Arkadelphia, Ark., where officials denied him access to the records and referred him to an attorney for Huckabee. Efforts to reach the attorney were unsuccessful.
When Mathews, at a campaign stop Saturday in Indianola, Iowa, asked Huckabee about the lack of access, one of the candidate's media aides intervened. "We're done here," she said, and escorted her boss from the room.
-- Don Frederick
He's promoted the "politics of hope." He pressed Americans to "turn the page" and embrace a new, less-partisan approach to grappling with the nation's problems. And, of course, Barack Obama has offered himself as just the guy with the unifying skills to make this happen.
He stresses, as he seeks the Democratic presidential nomination, that he does not want to "pit red America against blue America. I want to be president of the United States of America."
Outreach has its limits, however. And The Times Maria La Ganga was at an Obama rally today in Fort Madison, Iowa, when the candidate provided a reality check.
"I'm not trying to persuade Rush Limbaugh that I'm going to be a good president," he cautioned his listeners.
We doubt that even his most ardent backers thought that was in the realm of possibility.
-- Don Frederick
Read more Barack Obama, realist »
Even if you don't live in Iowa or New Hampshire, be forewarned: the phone calls are coming!!!
The California branch of Democrat Barack Obama's presidential organization has publicized what we imagine most of the leading campaigns will soon be up to -- calling folks in many of the states with primaries later this winter to remind them that they don't have to wait to cast ballots.
As we've noted before, liberalized rules for absentee balloting mean that in a growing number of states, voting actually occurs over an extended period of time.
Debbie Mesloh, communications chief for Obama in the Golden State, noted in a recent release: "Absentee ballots for California's Feb. 5 presidential primary will be mailed out on Monday, Jan. 7; residents can apply to vote by mail until Jan. 29. According to a recent California Field Poll, more than 4.2 million of the state's 15 million registered voters -– 27.2% -– have signed up to cast their ballots by mail. In the June 2006 state primary election, a record 47% of the ballots cast came from absentee voters."
The calls in California on behalf of Obama, by the way, began today.
-- Don Frederick
Reversing the no-question approach she had adopted mid-week, Hillary Clinton invited queries from voters at a campaign stop Friday in Story City, Iowa. But the change was short-lived.
She took three questions before leaving her first campaign event of the day. But at two later stops, the Q-and-A was dispensed with. Clinton spokesman Jay Carson said she was running behind schedule as the day proceeded.
After she had finished her speech in Story City, Clinton told her audience that the best questions she gets tend not to be those asked for all to see.
"I want to meet as many of you as possible and have a chance to hear from you," she said. "I often hear the best stories and the best questions one-on-one.''
Of course, when she takes questions while working the rope line -- with campaign songs typically blaring in the background -- it is difficult for the media to hear the exchanges.
Clinton's three questions in Story City dealt with education, the cost of the Iraq war and depleted uranium. Carson said he anticipated more opportunities for audience questions before the Iowa caucuses next Thursday.
One of Clinton's main rivals in the state, John Edwards, put out word -- perhaps with a contrast in mind -- that he is open to as many questions as voters want to ask as next week's big day nears. His campaign, in fact, not only announced that voters were welcome to ask him questions directly at rallies, but they could pose them through a new website or by phoning his Iowa headquarters.
-- Peter Nicholas
Lest Iowa Democrats forget the Republican they most like to loathe, retired Gen. Tony McPeak, Air Force chief of staff during the first Gulf War, has been there to remind them.
In fact, he makes a nod toward bipartisanship as he takes a verbal smack at the commander-in-chief who happens to be the son of the president he served.
The tall, ascetic-looking McPeak, 71, has been traveling the Hawkeye State introducing Barack Obama to crowds come to cheer on the Democratic presidential contender. He likes to tout the candidate's smarts. And that, The Times' Maria LaGanga reports, sets up his best laugh line.
“For the last seven years, we’re testing the theory that it doesn’t make a lot of difference if the guy in the White House is not that bright,” McPeak drawled Friday in Muscatine. “And the results are in. In fact, just about everybody on either side that’s in contention for the presidency, no matter who wins, there’s going to be a big jump in the IQ.”
The current President Bush was not available for comment.
-- Don Frederick
John McCain's antipathy for Mitt Romney -- a distaste that goes beyond the normal bristling between highly competitive presidential candidates -- has been obvious for some time.
Back in the spring, even as his own campaign was short-circuiting, McCain barbs sparked by Romney's multiple position reversals carried particular venom. And last month, during the Republican YouTube debate, McCain's disdain for and disgust with Romney as they sparred over waterboarding -- as in, is it torture? -- was palpable. Here's a memory refresher (and note how McCain avoids even looking in his rival's direction).
On Friday, the chill between the two deepened.
As the McCain crew roused itself in New Hampshire, where its man has crept up in most polls, Romney was ready with a new television ad targeting him. After the spot's voiceover narrator praises McCain (calling him "an honorable man"), he then seeks to bury him, scolding the Arizona senator ...
Read more Romney-McCain sniping intensifies »
"Big Challenges, Real Solutions."
That's the new slogan Hillary Clinton unveiled earlier this week as she began making the rounds in Iowa, looking to win over wavering Democrats as Thursday's caucuses approach.
Clinton may well pull off a victory -- she appears to have staunched the surge for Barack Obama that some polls detected earlier in the month in Iowa (check out these new results). Regardless, we predict a short shelf life for her new catch phrase; we could be wrong, but its prospects for joining the likes of "New Deal" and "New Frontier" in the permanent political lexicon seem slim.
Mitt Romney, meanwhile, may have made linguistic history, regardless of the outcome of his Republican presidential bid.
Romney, to his chagrin, was the subject of what has become widely termed an "anti-endorsement" -- a scathing editorial in New Hampshire's liberal Concord Monitor that attacked him as a phony. The phrase was recycled when the state' s biggest newspaper, the Manchester Union, followed suit with a negative editorial targeting him.
Anti-endorsement ... now that's a label we can envision becoming a well-used part of the political vocabulary.
-- Don Frederick
As she races through Iowa in the days before next week's caucuses, Hillary Clinton is taking few chances. She tells crowds that it’s their turn to “pick a president,’’ but over the last two days she has not invited them to ask her any questions.
Before the brief Christmas break, the New York senator had been setting aside time after campaign speeches to hear from the audience. Now when she’s done speaking, her theme songs blare from loudspeakers, preventing any kind of public Q&A.
She was no more inviting when a television reporter approached her after a rally on Thursday and asked if she was “moved’’ by Benazir Bhutto’s assassination. Clinton turned away without answering.
Her daughter, Chelsea, had the same reaction when a reporter approached her with a question.
Hillary Clinton’s no-question policy didn’t sit well with some of the Iowans who came to see her speak.
“I was a little bit underwhelmed,’’ said Doug Rohde, 46, as he left a rally at a fire station in Denison. “The message was very generic -- and no questions.’’
Clinton campaign officials said that she may take questions in the coming days. But her focus is on seeing as many voters as possible before the caucuses next Thursday -- and spotlighting the messages she wants to deliver.
Spokespeople for her two main rivals in the Hawkeye State -– John Edwards and Barack Obama -– said the candidates would continue fielding questions as they troll for support.
(UPDATE: For an amusing update, click here.)
-- Peter Nicholas
Much of the attention focused on new polls, like today's Times/Bloomberg poll, centers on the front-runners as people try to read into their numbers predictions about the ultimate winners come Jan. 3 in Iowa and Jan. 8 in New Hampshire.
Those new front-runner numbers can be found here. Basically, they show among Democrats that Barack Obama has erased Hillary Clinton's once commanding lead in New Hampshire and the two of them plus John Edwards are in a three-way statistical tie in Iowa. Among Republicans, the new numbers show that Mike Huckabee has erased Mitt Romney's long-running, hard-bought lead in Iowa and opened his own 14-point advantage.
But in New Hampshire, where evangelicals are much fewer, Huckabee is way back at 9% while Romney leads with 34%, a surging John McCain is second at 21%, up from 12% in September, and Rudy Giuliani in third with 15%.
Though usually overlooked, the polling question is not, "Who will you vote for on Jan. X?" It's something like, "If the voting was today, who would you vote for?" So today's poll (actually Dec. 20-23 and 26 with more than 3,400 people in both states) is a current snapshot, which offers at least some hope to also-rans way back in the pack. How are they doing?
Among Iowa Democrats, Sen. Joe Biden got 6% among likely Democratic voters and 4% among Democrats. Bill Richardson got 7% among likely voters and 6% among Democrats. Dennis Kucinich got 2% among likely voters and Democrats and Chris Dodd received half that support -- 1% -- in both categories.
In New Hampshire, Biden and Kucinich both got 2% among Democrats and 1% among likely voters while Richardson received 5% among Democrats and 4% among likely voters. Dodd, who's focused entirely on Iowa by literally moving there, got 0% in both categories.
Among Iowa Republicans, Fred Thompson got 11% among Republicans and 10% among likely voters. Ron Paul received 2% among Republicans and 1% among likely voters while Duncan Hunter got 1% among Republicans and 2% among likely voters. Don't Know scored 9% among Republicans and 7% among likely voters.
In New Hampshire, Dr. Paul did best of this sub-group scoring 4% among Republicans and 6% among likely voters, better than the better-known Thompson at 4% and 4%. Hunter got 1% and 1% while Don't Know was 11% among Republicans and 8% among likely voters. Paul's fervent supporters, who've donated nearly $19 million this quarter alone, are counting on under-reporting of their numbers to produce a primary surprise, possibly in New Hampshire.
One other set of interesting numbers, the voters' decisions seem to be hardening with more than 71% of Iowa Republicans and 57% of New Hampshire Republicans certain of their vote now. Among Iowa Democrats, 71% are now certain of their vote while in New Hampshire the certainty factor is 65%. The new poll's complete data base is here.
One other statistical certainty: All of these numbers will change before the votes get counted.
--Andrew Malcolm
Sometimes, adults say the darnedest things to pollsters (apologies to Art Linkletter).
Buried deep in the new L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll of Iowans and New Hampshirites -- you can read about its key findings here and pore over all the numbers here -- was this question: "If you found out that a presidential candidate you support had, in the past, had an extramarital affair, would that affect your support of that candidate, or not?"
This didn't surprise us, given the differences between the two major parties in general on the importance of cultural issues: In Iowa, 73% of the Democratic voters said an adulterous past would have no effect on how they view a candidate, while 39% of the state's Republican voters were similarly nonchalant.
Here's what did shock us: A mere 8% of the Democrats said the revelation of an affair would make them more likely to back a White House contender, while 22% of the Republicans said yes to that! (In terms of less likely, the results were 11% among Democrats, 27% among Republicans.)
The splits were less pronounced among New Hampshire voters, but still evident. The breakdowns:
No effect -- Democrats, 72%; Republicans, 52%.
More likely -- Democrats, 7%; Republicans, 18% (again causing us to scratch our heads).
Less likely -- Democrats, 8%; Republicans, 20%.
The poll's error margin for responses from Iowa Democrats is plus-or-minus 4 percentage points; for Iowa Republicans, it's plus-or-minus 6 percentage points. In New Hampshire, the error margins are plus-or-minus 4 percentage points for Democrats, 5 percentage points for the Republicans. So maybe there's less of a gap in those "more likely" answers (then again, maybe the difference is even larger).
Maybe lots of Republicans didn't hear the question as well as the Democrats. Then again, maybe there's a segment of the GOP that bears further examination.
-- Don Frederick
Hillary Clinton seems to have stablized her position in Iowa, but she has reason to be concerned about New Hampshire.
Mitt Romney, meanwhile, may be left hoping that the results in Iowa have a minimal impact on voters in New Hampshire.
Those are two of the trends captured in a new L.A. Times/Bloomberg Poll of voters in the two states that routinely make or break presidential candidacies. We won't reveal the precise numbers here; those will be available on our homepage later today (roughly 4 p.m. PST).
We can say this much: The results, in line with other recent surveys, indicate a Democratic race that remains up for grabs in Iowa among Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama (with the latter coming on strong in New Hampshire). Meanwhile, the poll contains no good cheer for the three Democrats -- Bill Richardson, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd -- who have been banking on an Iowa "surprise."
Among the Republican White House contenders, the poll found that Romney's best-laid plans for the Hawkeye State appear to have gone awry, derailed by Mike Huckabee. But, also like other polls, it found no sign that Huckabee fever was widespread in New Hampshire (good news not only for Romney, but John McCain as well).
(UPDATE: Here it is now.)
-- Don Frederick
Barack Obama and his campaign team seem to like set speeches to set themes. Remember, his announcement speech in Springfield. His foreign affairs speech. And his domestic policy speech. Now comes his closing argument speech. In Iowa. Des Moines. Today.
It will be a summation of his presidential effort so far and where he wants to go. The good folks over at NBC's First Read paid very close attention to Obama's Mason City speech Wednesday and think they see the developing theme of today's rhetorical ruminations that could play a crucial role in closing the sale for the junior Illinois senator among many Iowa Democrats in what has become essentially a statistical dead-heat among Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards.
Obama seems likely to retrace his campaign trail from the steps of the Illinois Capitol, where he made his announcement 10 months ago based on a fundamental belief in "the core decency and generosity of spirit in American people. A belief that the American people were desperate for change."
He added, "We felt that we might be able to not just change political parties in the White House, but that we might be able to change our politics. That was our bet and now 10 months later that faith has been vindicated, 10 months later what people said couldn't be done, we might do."
Now, he claimed, the whole Democratic campaign has become about change. And he urged the crowd, "when you make a decision to caucus, you have to ask yourself who's been about change their whole lives? Who's made the choices that would indicate their passion for working Americans, their hopes and their dreams?"
Not too surprisingly, Obama comes down on the side of Obama.
Now, if the same pattern as all year follows, watch for an attempt at a major announcement or distraction by the Clinton campaign to detract from the news play and attention Obama might get if he dominates Iowa's newscasts alone.
-- Andrew Malcolm
Well, it may have something to do with John McCain's comeback rise in the New Hampshire polls and his desire to close in even closer on the tail of Republican presidential opponent Mitt Romney, but the former Navy pilot is letting loose with however many barrels he's got left to fire in those old wings.
Today, under the senator's own name, his campaign released a rather strong statement, usually reserved for aides to keep the candidate cleaner and above the dirty ground fighting. Here's what McCain said:
"I know something about tailspins, and it's pretty clear Mitt Romney is in one. It's disappointing that he would launch desperate, flailing and false attacks in an attempt to maintain relevance. As the Union Leader said today, New Hampshire voters just aren't buying his act, and these latest attacks won't help him."
Earlier today the McCain camp issued a lengthy list of old Romney statements on immigration, once perceived as a McCain weak spot among conservatives who did not like his support of so-called amnesty for illegal immigrants last spring. But now McCain is on the offensive, citing how Romney appeared to endorse similar positions in numerous news articles from the past. Echoes of the old flip-flop attacks.
And in case you missed it, here's Sunday's opening shot on Romney from the McCain camp by the senator's advisor (and frequent co-author) Mark Salter, issued just before the Christmas truce went into effect:
"Welcome to Mitt Romney's bizarro world, in which everyone is guilty of his sins. He didn't support Ronald Reagan. He didn't support President Bush's tax cuts. He raised taxes in Massachusetts by $700 million. He knows John McCain is gaining on him so he does what any small varmint gun totin', civil rights marching, NRA-endorsed fantasy candidate would do: He questions someone else's credibility. New Hampshire is on to you, Mitt. Give it a rest. It's Christmas."
Other than that, the two are getting along just fine as the Iowa caucus (Jan. 3) and New Hampshire primary (Jan. 8) near.
-- Andrew Malcolm
While millions of Americans headed to the Returns sections of stores across the country today, most of the people who would be the next president of the United States packed into Iowa for the final push to the Jan. 3 caucus.
Buoyed by his Des Moines Register endorsement and rising poll numbers, even Arizona Sen. John McCain, once written off nationally and who had written off Iowa, showed up in the Hawkeye state. A campaign memo today admitted, "A crowded field will make a good finish (t)here difficult." But a surprise third-place finish there could make McCain the first comeback kid of 2008.
John Edwards was in New Hampshire today along with Mitt Romney, reinforcing his firewall against an upset in Iowa, while Rudy Giuliani was in Florida, still building his do-passably-in-the-early-states-but-come-on-strong-later strategy.
Mike Huckabee, currently leading by most accounts in Iowa, made it appear he spent the day in Iowa by pheasant-hunting in Osceola in the morning, but he then dashed off for two solid days of fundraising in Florida. Taking two crucial days off to seek money may be an indicator of the former Arkansas governor's fragile finances, no matter how well he does with Iowa evangelicals. And the Club for Growth aired more Iowa ads against the former Arkansas governor.
Though delayed by air traffic over New York, Hillary and Bill you-know-who were back in Iowa for her new "Big Challenges, Real Solutions: Time to Pick a President Tour." Gee, who writes her stuff? As she continued making her argument that her White House experience makes her the best choice as Democratic nominee, the New York Times published a devastating analysis of her eight years as first lady that explains why ....
Read more Iowa's population now packed with politicians »
With his Democratic rivals headed to Iowa, former Sen. John Edwards made his 23rd -- and last -- visit to New Hampshire before the Iowa caucuses this morning. He knocked on a handful of doors in Nashua -- offering iced Christmas cookies, doughnuts and coffee (carried by his staff).
Edwards, in jeans, hiking boots, a long black coat and no gloves, canvassed the neighborhood of one of his supporters, Nashua attorney William H. Barry III, along with The Times' ubiquitous Maeve Reston. Barry assured her the campaign was only stopping by the homes of undecided voters.
Why waste time on the committed, right?
“He’s trying to close and when you close you’ve got to go with people who are undecided," Barry said. "It doesn’t make any sense to travel around with a canvas of supporters. It’s a waste of time for everybody. It may make the supporter feel important, but it’s not going to advance the candidate.”
At a cheerful yellow house on Wood Street, the former North Carolina senator ran into some straight talk from Jim Mail, a Republican who is definitely not undecided. He's supporting Arizona Sen. John McCain.
The Mail family was playing on its new Nintendo Wii in pajamas when it received notice from, appropriately enough, an advance staff warning that Edwards might ...
Read more Edwards seeks undecideds with doughnuts »
This is just a short holiday message of good cheer to our growing ranks of readers. When we started this bicoastal blog 197 days ago, we said in an opening note that we were looking forward to providing an eclectic mix of political stories telling the tales of our democracy in action and having a dialogue with readers.
Since then, your ranks have grown to many thousands every day. We've published in excess of 1,000 items and received more than 7,000 comments so far. We thank you.
It's not easy keeping up, but we do our best, drawing on the vast, talented resources of The Times' political staff. And the busy time is just about to start.
So like the candidates themselves, we're taking one day off. The complete archives, of course, remain open as always. And the Comments section on each and every item.
May the joy of this season and the promise of a new year reach into the lives of each of you and may we each appreciate the benefits -- and responsibilities -- of our imperfect but operating democracy in action.
See you tomorrow.
-- Andrew and Don
Don't worry about the Ron Paul people -- they'll find something to complain about in these last glorious days before the reality of the actual primary/caucus voting starts, even though it can't be about being ignored by the big media anymore.
The 72-year-old, 10-term Republican representative from Texas with the libertarian ideas has been on just about every conceivable broadcast outlet in recent times. He's getting so much attention he's now starting to be criticized for some things, including accepting funds from and not returning them to some white supremacists.
That's what raising $18 million in the still unfinished fourth quarter ($6+ million of it in one day) will do to your political obscurity. That and the online and local meet-up group work by thousands of fervent fans who profess to be newcomers to the political process, so inspired are they by the ob-gyn who represents the Galveston area and his strict constitutionalist ideals and the simple clarity of his goal to return government to its strict constitutional boundaries. No more Department of Education, for instance, or many other federal departments.
Paul is on a roll, up in some polls, down significantly in others, which Paul people don't care anything about because they say they don't believe in polls because nobody's going to tell them how to vote, even though polls aren't orders for anybody, they only reveal how a few hundred people say they're going to vote at that moment in time.
Because everybody Ron Paul supporters say they talk to either already are or immediately become Ron Paul supporters, they believe the Ron Paul Revolution will sweep the country sometime shortly into the New Year, starting perhaps in New Hampshire where they have so many yard signs and the license plates say "Live Free or Die." Also, the new Ron Paul blimp is flying around there.
Anyway, today was Ron Paul's turn to be waterboarded by Tim Russert on NBC's "Meet the Press." As one sign of how the Iraq war surge's recent success has made it a non-issue, Russert didn't even ask him about his stand (Paul's the lone GOP candidate who opposes the war, saying it creates much more trouble than it's worth and that maintaining an empire always bankrupts the colonial power).
Paul wants to bring home all American troops abroad to save money and avoid making ....
Read more Here we go again, not ignoring Ron Paul »
Unless you're a conscientious blogger who dislikes time off on weekends, nobody in their right mind pores over all the blather from the networks' Sunday morning television talk shows with their "exclusive" interviews of people who were exclusive interviews on another channel just seven mornings ago.
But today a perceptive question by wily news veteran Bob Schieffer on CBS' "Face the Nation" caught our eyes, almost as much as Mike Huckabee's answer. Huckabee's been criticized by all kinds of conservative interest clubs for raising some taxes to rebuild Arkansas roads (while cutting others), for funding education and working with teachers' unions, for paroling some prisoners (while executing 16 others). He may, in fact, be too moderate to win the GOP nod, despite being elected four times in a Democratic state.
So Schieffer wanted to know something about the longshot turned front-runner: Are you running to change the Republican Party as well as running for the nomination?
And here's Huckabee's reply in its entirety: I am a Republican. And I am out to change the Republican Party. It needs changing. It needs to be inclusive of all those people across America for whom this party should stand.
And it's not just the people on Wall Street. It's the people on Main Street. And there are a lot of people in America that come up and shake my hand. They get out of cabs. They come from behind the skycap counter and they tell me that they appreciate the fact that I understand what it's like to struggle.
The Republicans are not just a group of people who sit at the top. They're people who sit around their kitchen table and worry about how they're going to pay their rent.
I think sometimes there's this perception that Republicans all belong to the same club. Well, the one club they belong to is loving this country and loving its future and wanting to do the best for their children. I think I represent those folks.
I'm not angry at all the folks at Wall Street. In fact, I think my policies would do more for them, but it wouldn't just be for them. It would also be for those guys that don't necessarily have a stock portfolio. It would be also for the people who don't have a lobbyist in Washington.
When we do the kind of policies that I'd like to see happen in terms of taxes and regulation, a guy could sit down at his kitchen table, sketch out the idea for a small business, and know that the government isn't his biggest opposition, that he actually might be able to live the American dream. And that's what Republicans ought to be about, helping not just big business but small business as well.
Kinda makes you wonder, while we all tend to focus on the early states and each day's noisy rhetorical fireworks about sanctuary cities and illegal lawn cutters and planting forum questions and hedge funds and arrogance and 527 funds and whether the corner of a bookshelf looks like a cross, kinda makes you wonder if maybe there's a more fundamental struggle, a silent one, going on at least in the Republican Party over the shape of its political personality.
-- Andrew Malcolm
After his campaign and fundraising imploded last spring, he's been saying all along time and again that simply continuing to campaign and flying economy class in the back of the plane without aides and getting his message out and sticking to his points, even though, say, supporting the military surge in Iraq, among other stands, was unpopular, he's been saying things would come around. Because the American people like straight talk and he'd rather lose an election than a war.
And, guess what, it seems that nearly six years in a POW cell does give you some perspective. He is coming on strong now.
Ariz. Sen. John McCain, who pulled off a stunning 19-point upset whacking of George W. Bush and Karl Rove in New Hampshire in the 2000 Republican primary, is surging once again in the Granite state -- which spells good news for him and trouble for the state’s longtime front-runner Mitt Romney.
A new Boston Globe poll today taken Dec. 16-20 shows McCain trailing the former Massachusetts governor by only three percentage points –- well within the margin of error. Among 410 likely Republican voters, Romney leads McCain 28% to 25%. That's a very steep climb for McCain. A Globe poll last month gave Romney a whopping 33% with McCain trailing way back at 17% and Rudy Giuliani ahead of him at 20%. Now, Giuliani has slipped to third with 14%.
The Democratic race in the Granite State is also a virtual dead heat, according to the Globe poll of 422 likely voters. It shows Illinois Sen. Barack Obama leading with the support of 30% of likely Democratic voters while New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has 28%, down from her 14 point advantage last month. John Edwards holds steady in third at 14%. The margin of error of both samples is +/- 4.9%.
In the Republican race, this is just the latest good news in New Hampshire for ....
Read more Pretty amazing, here he comes again »
There's a tradition of American military leaders turning to politics when their careers as soldiers come to a close. Gen. George Washington led the colonies in their revolt against British rule and reluctantly became the first president of the United States. Gen. Ulysses S. Grant's Union Army defeated the Confederacy, propelling Grant to the presidency in 1869, only four years after the end of the Civil War. And Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower, the architect of the D-Day invasion of Europe during World War II, resigned his position as the Supreme Allied Commander, Europe, to make a winning White House run in 1952.
(More recently, retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark, one of Eisenhower's successors as head of NATO forces, wasn't quite as successful in his quest for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004, and retired Gen. Colin L. Powell, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff during the 1991 Gulf War, withdrew from consideration for the 1996 GOP nomination to run against Bill Clinton -- in part because of his wife's opposition.)
There has been speculation in some quarters that the top U.S. military commander in Iraq, Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, harbors similar political ambitions. Appearing on "Fox News Sunday," he was asked directly by host Chris Wallace: "Any interest in that, sir?"
"None, Chris, at all. Thank you," Petraeus replied. "I have great respect for those who do choose to serve our country that way. I've chosen to serve our country in uniform. And I think that General Sherman had it right when he gave what is now commonly referred to as a 'Shermanesque response' when asked a similar question."
In 1884, Gen. William Tecumseh Sherman -- perhaps best known in the history books for the "scorched earth" policy that devastated the Confederacy in the final year of the Civil War and gave Grant his victory -- emphatically shut the door to the Republican presidential nomination with this reply: "If drafted, I will not run; if nominated, I will not accept; if elected, I will not serve."
-- Leslie Hoffecker
Two of the basic rules of being a presidential campaign staffer are: never leave it to the candidate to end a public forum, and make sure you're ready to start the applause when the candidate is done speaking.
Remember that painfully awkward moment some weeks back when Sen. Fred Thompson finished his remarks to a small crowd, which was uncertain if he was done -- so there was dead silence and Thompson, a former actor, had to ask for a round of applause? Please!
Well, the other night in Rochester, N.H., Mitt Romney had been speaking to about 70 attentive listeners for perhaps 30 minutes. They seemed to be enjoying themselves, according to a Times staffer. It was time to cut off questions and move on to the next event. But the former governor got no help. So, awkwardly, Romney, who's not a former actor, sought a way out. All he could think of to say was:
"I'm told your time is up and you want to go home and watch TV or something."
--Andrew Malcolm
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