Updated: Huckabee, Obama lead new Iowa poll

Mike Huckabee's strange day -- marked by the unusual news conference where he discussed a negative ad he won't be airing -- is ending on a high note: the just-released Des Moines Register poll shows him ahead, by six percentage points, over rival Mitt Romney in the Republican presidential race.

The survey also contains good news for Barack Obama, putting him on top in the Democratic contest. The poll, which has had a solid reputation for accurately gauging what will happen on caucus night, gives him a seven-point lead over Hillary Clinton and an eight-point edge over John Edwards. Within two hours Obama's campaign had turned the encouraging new numbers into another fundraising appeal.

The Register's numbers and its analysis can be found here. And a summary of the most recent poll results in Iowa can be found here and here.

(UPDATE: Late this evening, running an hour late, The Times' Maria LaGanga reports, Obama appeared at a jammed rally at Iowa State University in Ames. He launched into his standard stump speech. After nearly 22 minutes, he added: “Apparently the Des Moines Register is coming out with a poll tomorrow. (We're) up six points, maybe it’s seven. Six or seven. It’s beyond the margin of error. So we might just pull this thing off. We might just pull this thing off, Iowa. Who would have thunk it.” The raucous crowd went wild. Obama didn't.

(Meanwhile, in downtown Des Moines,  according to The Times Seema Mehta, the three Clintons returned from a rally to the Hotel Fort Des Moines and wandered through the lobby. Hillary and Chelsea made a bee line for the elevator while Bill stayed behind to mingle with New Years revelers spilling out of the bar wearing funny hats and seeking photographs with the ex-president.)

-- Don Frederick

Breaking News: Clinton passes $100 million level

A few minutes ago a top campaign aide for Hillary Clinton told The Times' Dan Morain that her campaign has now passed the $100 million fundraising level.

The fourth quarter of 2007 ends tonight at midnight, although campaigns need not report their official sums to the Federal Election Commission until Jan. 31. But the New York senator is the first to claim the $100 million mark that was widely considered the 2007 financial bar for serious candidates.

The aide to the Democratic front-runner did not disclose the exact amount she raised in the last three months. But given that she had amassed $80 million in the first three quarters, the junior senator brought in at least another $20 million in the final quarter. Barack Obama's campaign has not released its fourth quarter numbers, but it raised $78 million in the first nine months of 2007 so the two candidates lkiely remain close in incoming financial resources. Without citing specific sums, Obama officials told supporters today they would have more than the $100 million necessary.

The fourth quarter is a typically tough period to hit up donors for political money. Many contributors are more focused on holiday celebrations than politics. And with the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary just days away, candidates are more focused on actual campaigning than on raising campaign cash. Still, this carefully timed news can play to the inevitability factor that the Clinton campaign has sought to cultivate all along, as well as help counter attention to a new Des Moines Register poll tonight showing Obama increasing his lead over Clinton.

Comparing Clinton's $100 million-plus feat to times past, Democrats raised a combined $57 million in 1999, the last time there was no incumbent. Republicans, led by then Texas Gov. George W. Bush's $65 million, raised $108 million combined eight years ago.

Four years ago, in the 2003 calendar year before the general election, all of the Democratic presidential candidates raised a combined $128.9 million, while President Bush used the power of incumbency to raise $128.8 million alone, according to FEC records.

--Andrew Malcolm

Clinton says she risked her life as first lady

As the old year faded away today and the hours until the crucial Thursday Iowa caucus dwindled, a cautious Hillary Clinton was taking no chances with unplanned questions. She's reverted to her "Don't ask" policy of recent days when she refused to take questions, especially when they concerned one of her supporters, Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, dissing the Iowa caucus process.

But she was more than happy to talk about risking her life on first lady missions during her husband's presidency.

The Ohio governor has been traveling around Iowa in recent days positively brimming with such good cheer you wonder why he doesn't just move to the Hawkeye state. “It is wonderful to be in the great state of Iowa," he says to crowds including The Times' Seema Mehta.

"I think Ohio and Iowa have much in common. We have wonderful people, salt of the earth folk who know how to work hard, who are patriotic, who care for their family and their community, support their churches, contribute to charity. I am so pleased and proud to be here as the governor of the state of Ohio.” And then he introduces his favorite senator from New York, Clinton.

Unfortunately from a public relations point of view, Strickland said something else....

Edwards readies for a marathon

If Republican Rudy Giuliani defines one way of dealing with Iowa -- i.e., blow it off -- Democrat John Edwards provides an example of the other extreme.

From the start of his current presidential quest, Edwards and his staff have made no bones that his fortunes will likely rise or fall on how he does in Thursday's caucuses. He began with a core of backers from his 2004 campaign, when he ran second in the caucuses (which helped him garner his party's vice presidential nomination). And he has worked tirelessly to expand his support.

That "tirelessly" point now will be accentuated.

On Tuesday, with the New Year just barely begun, Edwards will embark upon a 36-hour trek across Iowa, billed as a "Marathon for the Middle Class." And just to keep everyone on their toes, the campaign promises that each hour of the trip -- at events and at johnedwards.com/iowa -– the candidate will spotlight a specific step to help the middle class.

The schedule calls for Edwards to pass through 15 of Iowa's 99 counties: Appanoose, Cass, Des Moines, Henry, Jefferson, Johnson, Lee, Linn, Polk, Pottawattamie, Poweshiek, Story, Union, Wapello and Webster. The journey will culminate with a rally late Wednesday in West Des Moines, where Edwards will share a stage with one of his high-profile supporters, singer and songwriter John Mellencamp.

Edwards is hardly the first candidate to wrap up a hard-fought campaign by inflicting sleep deprivation on himself, aides and those covering him. Perhaps most famously, Republican Bob Dole hit the road nonstop during the final 96 hours of his 1996 bid to unseat then-President Bill Clinton. (Here's a story from mid-tour.)

Edwards will be hoping for a better result from his jaunt. Clinton swamped Dole in the electoral vote, 379 to 159.

-- Don Frederick

Giuliani takes a break

At least one presidential candidate has decided to kick back during the last gasp of the holiday season. The motivation, however, may have more to do with political realities than tradition.

The schedule for Republican Rudy Giuliani shows he's off today and Tuesday. Maybe he's a hard-core fan of college bowl games. More likely, he simply recognized that spending his time in Iowa -- like virtually every other presidential contender -- would be pointless.

Indeed, Giuliani clearly has written off the Hawkeye State (despite a brief tour there Saturday). When he resumes campaigning Wednesday, he'll be in New Hampshire. And on Thursday night, when dutiful Iowans troop off into the cold to attend their caucus sites and officially kick off the nominating process, Giuliani will be in Florida (with a small, but no doubt grateful, contingent in tow).

Iowa, where evangelicals are an especially key component of the GOP, always was a bad match for a candidate trying to get his party to ignore his liberal positions on social issues and concentrate on his commitment to fighting terrorism. Giuliani's indifference toward Iowa was signaled when he took a pass on competing in the summer's Republican straw poll. (State party members returned the disinterest: He got barely 1% of the vote in the contest.)

The question that long has surrounded the Giuliani strategy is whether a pathetic showing in Iowa will create a negative snowball effect for him, leading to such poor showings in the high-profile primaries that quickly follow -- New Hampshire and South Carolina -- that his political stock will be severely damaged by the time Florida Republicans vote on Jan. 29.

While he's resting, Giuliani can content himself with one bit of positive press: He was endorsed today by a New Hampshire newspaper, Foster's Daily Democrat.

-- Don Frederick

What Mike Huckabee's schedule really reveals

You can tell a lot by a politician's schedule, which may be why Hillary Clinton's first lady schedule and documents are still locked in the Clinton presidential library. It's probably why Vice President Cheney never got around to releasing his meeting schedule on those long-ago energy consultations.

When you're a candidate, a daily schedule can reveal your whereabouts, goals and political intentions, which can attract protesters, tip off opponents on what you're up to or provide insight on how hard you're working some days. Which is why most presidential campaigns release schedules only a few days in advance, largely to obtain media coverage. And they intentionally leave time gaps, which usually means they're secretly wooing someone for money or support in person or by phone.

Mike Huckabee's schedule this year, for instance, has consistently revealed a reliance on free media appearances, which typically reach a broad audience, allow him to project his genial on-air personality (honed, not accidentally, by his long radio experience) and, did we mention, such free appearances don't cost him any money. 

Sunday, for instance, by sitting in a Des Moines chair for 30 minutes, Huckabee reached an influential national television audience on "Meet the Press," allowing him to charge his main Iowa opponent, Mitt Romney, with "running a very desperate and, frankly, dishonest campaign," which on a slow news day allowed Huckabee to generate gobs of further free news stories across the nation. Then he went to church and, out of sight, taped some last-minute campaign ads.

This likely reflects the former governor's weak fundraising. The fourth quarter doesn't end until midnight tonight, so it'll be a couple of weeks before each campaign's official figures...

Words Barack Obama swears by

Another day closer to the Iowa caucus and another several events in towns that merge into a gray blur and hundreds more eager faces in the crowds listening intently to every word the candidates say, as if it's the first time they've ever said them to such a group instead of the 800th.

And then something comes out of left field.

Today in Knoxville, Iowa, The Times' Maria LaGanga was watching Barack Obama take questions from the crowd unlike a certain fellow senator from New York. The unusual question came from a woman who described herself as a Republican. She said she has “enormous respect” for Obama because her daughter, “an Obama girl,” is volunteering for the senator from Illinois.

The woman had only one question on this chilly Sabbath morning: “What separates you from Mitt Romney?”

“That’s a very long list,” Obama replied, laughing. ”Let me say this. Mitt Romney is a very handsome guy. He is taller than me. I was listening to an interview this morning and somebody asked him has he ever cursed.

“And he said, 'Well, of course, but not the real harsh ones,'” according to Obama's account. Then, the politician from Chicago's South Side made a public confession. “I have to tell you," he said, "I have used some really harsh curse words. The really good ones, the juicy ones.”

Seriously, though, most of the Republican contenders, Obama said, “seem to be looking for a continuation of Bush-Cheney policies…There is going to be a very clear choice between myself and any of the Republicans.”

And on that you can bet your sweet #a$&**g!%.

--Andrew Malcolm

Clinton 'yields' to the crowd

To take audience questions or not?

As she wrapped up a frenetic day of campaigning in Iowa Saturday, Hillary Clinton began leaving it up to those who had come to see her.

In Dubuque, The Times' Seema Mehta reports, the Democratic presidential contender asked a crowd of hundreds of supporters spilling out of a ballroom whether they wanted to ask questions or take pictures and sign autographs. One man shouted out “autographs!”

“Okay, ask me your questions at the rope line,” she replied.

At the next rally -- the day's last -- in Manchester, Clinton offered the same choice, and the result was never in doubt.

"I can take a few questions, or I can come out and shake hands," she said. "What do you think? Come on out? Okay!"

Earlier, at an event in, appropriately, the town of Clinton, she veered from the "don't ask" policy she's followed of late and let the audience fire away. One of the queries focused on Pakistan, and she used the occasion to scold President Bush. His dealings with the country, she said, have "put way too much emphasis on [President Pervez] Musharraf instead of dealing with broader Pakistani society."

-- Don Frederick

LA's mayor surfaces in Iowa

Another small confirmation that Iowa is the center of the political universe (at least for a few more days): Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa landed in Des Moines on Saturday afternoon and promptly set to campaigning for Hillary Clinton (who he long ago endorsed in the Democratic presidential race).

Villaraigosa hit a couple of supermarkets and met with Asian community leaders. His pitch: That in the "deepest and most talented field of Democratic candidates since I have been voting [1972], Sen. Clinton is still head and shoulders above the rest."

The words he repeated most: character, experience and strength.

Villaraigosa's commitment impressed some of those he encountered.

"So you flew in from Los Angeles, wow!" said college dean Glenna Ewing, on meeting hizzoner in the snack aisle of a Dahl's supermarket in Des Moines.

Actually, he arrived from Aspen, where he had skied with his children.

Ewing is precisely the type of voters campaigns hope to influence through surrogates -- she said she was having trouble deciding between Clinton and Barack Obama. Villaraigosa, however, apparently failed to earn his airfare in this instance -- after chatting with him, she still seemed to lean toward Obama because of, as she put it, "the change thing."

The mayor will continue his Iowa tour through New Year's Eve day. Then he goes back home for an appearance in the Rose Parade, before releasing statistics that he said would show "amazing" decreases in crime in L.A.

As for New Year's resolutions, Villaraigosa -- whose 2007 has been marked by personal tumult -- didn't say. But he was toting a copy of "The Voice of Knowledge: A Practical Guide to Inner Peace."

-- James Rainey

The Huckabee file: tough to check

Increasingly buffeted by attacks from the Mitt Romney camp (here's one of the latest), Mike Huckabee on Saturday responded in part by repeatedly urging reporters covering his Republican presidential campaign in Iowa to examine the details of his 10 years as governor of Arkansas.

One problem: His gubernatorial records are not publicly available.

Electronic records were destroyed by his aides as he left office (more about that here). And the paper records were donated to his college alma mater, which has not made them available.

The Times' Joe Mathews visited that school, Ouachita Baptist University in Arkadelphia, Ark., where officials denied him access to the records and referred him to an attorney for Huckabee. Efforts to reach the attorney were unsuccessful.

When Mathews, at a campaign stop Saturday in Indianola, Iowa, asked Huckabee about the lack of access, one of the candidate's media aides intervened. "We're done here," she said, and escorted her boss from the room.

-- Don Frederick