In dueling Iowa polls, the fine print is important to note

The Hillary Clinton presidential campaign, buffeted by the Des Moines Register's Sunday front page trumpeting its poll that gave Barack Obama a slight lead over her (28% to 25%) among likely Democratic caucus-goers, responded today with a release spotlighting two surveys that put her ahead in the Hawkeye state.

The Associated Press/Pew Research Center poll reported Clinton backed by 31% of the likely caucus-goers, followed by Obama (26%), John Edwards (19%) and Bill Richardson (10%). Iowa State University weighed in with these numbers: Clinton, 30.8%; Edwards, 24.4%; Obama 20.2%; Richardson, 11.4%.

In all three of the surveys, the advantage for the leader is within the margin of error. So basically, they all confirm one obvious point -- the Democratic race in Iowa is very tight and very fluid.

A closer look at the polls, however, reveals a potentially key difference between the Register's survey and the other two: timeliness.

The newspaper's poll was conducted from Nov. 25 (Sunday a week ago) through last Thursday. The AP/Pew survey was conducted Nov. 7-25, while the Iowa State poll was in the field Nov. 6-18.

Pollsters like to refer to their findings as "snapshots in time." The AP/Pew and Iowa State polls strike us as a bit lengthy in the development stage.

-- Don Frederick

Comments

[miked98]

Sounds like Hillary's campaign is trying to wrap old news in a new package: A metaphor for her candidacy?

[bbln]

Regarding the fine print, could the Des Moines Register's poll be based on their readership because that would be biased towards those who are keeping up with politics on a daily basis via David Yepsen articles, etc.

Also, the Iowa University Poll came out today, and was taken more recently than the Pew poll, yet supports the Pew's findings. Why not note that too where Clinton is at 31, Edwards 24 and Obama at 20?

http://thepage.time.com/2007/12/03/iowa-state-university-releases-new-iowa-numbers/

[davey]

bbln, you linked to a copy of the same Iowa State poll that was mentioned in the article and was conducted Nov. 6-18. And presumably the Des Moines Register has enough experience with polling to poll a representative sample of Iowans, not just their readership.

[bbln]

davey speaking of the fine print - this blog has been updated (without showing when), and it was after my comment so perhaps my comment had some influence ;). Originally, the article only discussed the Pew poll... to be thorough it's a good idea to check into how the Des Moines Register does their polling as I've dealt with magazines and papers that only sample their readers. But regardless the race is tight in Iowa...though I don't think that 3 points ahead for Obama is considered a "surge" as some articles have noted, and the AP/My Way today said: 'A new AP-Pew poll showed Clinton essentially tied with Obama in Iowa, 31 percent to 26 percent, with Edwards at 19 percent and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson at 10 percent.http://apnews.myway.com/article/20071203/D8TA91782.html

I just wish the news would stop trying to create news and just cover it instead.

[John Smart]

here is what is NOT noted in this post or any comments here: Clinton has large leads in the AP Pew poll in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Iowa has never been a strong clinton state. there is no consistent evidence that Iowa influences other states. Bill clinton came in 4th in 1992. Jimmy Carter finished behind "none of the above"
And note: In december of 2003 Howard Dean was far ahead in iowa. he finished in third place.
in california clinton remains far ahead in all polls. in florida too. iowa almost certainly is not going to change that.