Giuliani springs a leak in Florida too

DES MOINES -- A new Rasmussen poll shows that Rudy Giuliani's once-comfortable lead in Florida has gone, well, south on him.  And he can once again blame Mike Huckabee.

The poll shows that Giuliani, whose 27% in November was enough to give him an 8-point lead over Mitt Romney, has fallen to 19% support. Huckabee now stands at 27% and Romney has gained some ground to 23%. But most significant is that the poll found only half of the Florida voters polled are certain of their vote.

That means the fast-shifting campaign for the Republican nomination is getting even more uncertain. And the scenario indicated by the current polls spells trouble for Giuliani.

A Huckabee win here in Iowa on Jan. 3 and a Romney win in New Hampshire on Jan. 8 would send the campaign to Michigan on Jan. 15, where another recent Rasmussen poll showed a three-way tie among Huckabee, Giuliani and Romney, then on to Nevada on Jan. 19, where the most recent polls have Romney and Giuliani statistically tied.

On the same day, South Carolina Republicans vote and Huckabee is leading there. Nevada, like Iowa, is a caucus state and no one knows what turnout will be like there -- especially since the candidates have been essentially ignoring the state. But Romney's Mormonism could help him, given that the key to winning caucuses is being organized enough to get your people out.

So it's very conceivable that Giuliani could go into Florida 0-for-5, or as much as 2-for-5 if he ekes out Nevada and Michigan. If he loses in Florida as well, or just squeezes through, Giuliani could go into Feb. 5 -- the make-or-break day -- surrounded by question marks. And who knows what that will do to his leads in places like California, Illinois and Pennsylvania -- where the big delegate counts are divvied up and the nomination most likely won.

So next time Giuliani campaigns in Florida, he might want to stop in at the amusement parks around Orlando, where the roller-coaster rides are likely smoother than the one he's on now.

-- Scott Martelle

Comments

[Tony]

MITT ROMNEY IS SO AWESOME . . . he's kind of like Huckabee, but with experience, success, intelligence, and a graduate education. He's also a lot like Giuliani, but with honesty, integrity, hair, and a wife and children who aren't embarrased to support their dad.

[Jake]

Gee it looks as if Gomer Huckabee is doing to dumped on the voters.Geewhizzeeee Golleeeee

[Toddy]

Geez,

Nothing is surprised.
Only expletive(s) would vote for Mr Giuliani.
A man who used government money to commit adultery while in office is no fit for presidency.

[John S.]

I don't know what people see in Mike Huckabee. The only thing Mike Huckabee knows to do in a crisis is raise taxes, play his guitar and make wise cracks. The US has real issues facing us like Spiriling Health Care costs, out of control Gasoline prices, a looming threat of China become more and more powerful, the Middle Class being squeezed, and our National Debt growing by leaps and bounds.
What we need is an experienced CEO not a Pastor running this country. If you need religion, go to Church. I remember Jimmy Carter. He was also a nice Southern Gentleman. However the US was facing high Unemployent and high Inflation during his time. He didn't have a clue how to handle it. It took Reagan to fix the problem. Let's not repeat history. I think Mitt Romney has the most experience and most ideas to help turn this country around.

[Andrew Camacho]

Ok, there is officially something very strange about these polls.

I don't know who these people are calling, but there is NO WAY huckabee can be popular in Florida. I'm from Miami, and every person I talk to thinks that he is a religious zealot who wants to impose what he believes is his goodness around America and the world, through force if necessary.

[bob]

Well Jake, what education did you receive? You are calling Huckabee Gomer, but you are the one who speaks like Gomer.