Breaking News: Watch out Rudy, here comes Huck!

A new national Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll released a minute ago reveals that the Mike Huckabee phenomenon has exploded far beyond Iowa; the former Arkansas governor is now threatening the national lead of longtime Republican frontrunner Rudy Giuliani.

The new numbers -- 17% for Huckabee and 23% for Giuliani -- show a steep slide by the former New York mayor since October's poll (when he had 32%) and a more than doubling of Huckabee support from 7% back then. This could mean the conservative religious vote, variously estimated at 20% to 40% of the Iowa caucuses, appears to be congregating around the genial Arkansan, who until now has lagged in fundraising. Such encouraging results may help donations now. The Times' Seema Mehta found great joy around the Huckabee headquarters in Des Moines.

And today, Mark Halperin of Time magazine's The Page reported that 60 Iowa pastors, some of whom had been backing former candidate Sam Brownback, endorsed Huckabee.

In the Democratic race, the new Times poll numbers show that despite numerous attacks and Iowa state polls revealing a tight race there among Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama, Clinton remains the solid national frontrunner.

Clinton's national support among Democrats is 45%, down slightly from October's 48% but still more than twice that of Obama at 21% (who rose slightly from 17%) and four times Edwards' 11%, which is four points under Undecideds. Joe Biden and Bill Richardson each have 3% and Chris Dodd and Dennis Kucinich each have 1%. The Democrats' margin of error is plus or minus 4%; the GOP margin is plus or minus 5%. The poll of 529 Democrats and 428 Republicans was conducted Nov. 30-Dec. 3.

Registered Democratic voters likely to vote in the primaries also appear more certain of their choice than Republicans; 61% of Democrats say they are set on their vote and 37% are open to change, while Republican voters show more volatility--only 48% certain and fully 47% subject to changing their mind.

Besides Giuliani at 23% and Huckabee at 17% (the same percentage as Don't Know), the GOP field spreads out with Fred Thompson at 14%, John McCain at 11%, Mitt Romney still struggling nationally at 9%, Ron Paul at 5%, Duncan Hunter at 3% and Tom Tancredo at 0%.

Among Democrats, 37% say new ideas are the most important criteria, while 28% say experience ....

is more important; 27% rank them equally. Among Republicans, national security is by far the top item, at 52%, with social issues second at 19% and both equally at 22%.

Who has the best chance of beating the Democratic candidate? Thirty-eight percent say Giuliani, 11% say Romney, 10% pick McCain and 6% each for Thompson and Huckabee.

Which Democrat has the best chance of winning in the opinion of Democrats? Clinton still leads, 54% to Obama's 17% and Edwards' 11%. Has Clinton been fairly or unfairly criticized by her party opponents? Forty-five fair, 39% unfair.

Interestingly, Huckabee leads Giuliani slightly, 20% to 18%, when Republicans were asked which candidate says what he believes rather than what voters want to hear. Thompson gets 15%, McCain 13% and Romney 8%. Fifty-two percent of Republican voters say Giuliani's pro-abortion stance makes no difference to them and 73% say they don't care if Romney is a Mormon.

Results also provide bad general election news for any Republican candidate right now. Clinton beats Romney head-to-head, 47-39, and Giuliani, 46-42. Obama beats Romney 45-33 and Giuliani 44-39.

Of all respondents, only 22% think the country is moving in the right direction; 65% say it's going in the wrong direction. Among Democrats, it's 12% right, 80% wrong; among Republicans, it's 44% right, 39% wrong.

What do you think about any of this? The Comments section is open below.

--Andrew Malcolm

Comments

[Jack Somers]

Huckabee looks like a solid contender to me. I think he really appeals to the common person, and could easily get the nomination. The only question is how hard will the mud slinging be between him and Giuliani?

[Pamela Whiteley]

You will CONTINUE to see Huckabee rise in the polls.... mark my words.

[Landon]

Here is what you really need to know about Huckabee.

http://www.taxhikemike.com/

[Kenneth Smart]

Huckabee is taking this election by storm. Just wait... this is just the beginning. Before long you will see Governor Huckabee far out pacing Mayor Guiliani and the others.

[Dan Cramer]

We are witnessing a wonder in action. Mike Huckabee has not bought this rise in the polls by pouring tens of millions of dollars into advertising. He has earned this fantastic rise because of the message he brings. He connects with Americans of all walks. He has a positive message of hope for our country.

The pundits are trying to downplay his surge, but if you honestly look at Huckabee's numbers, it's hard to deny that he is on the move nationwide.

(Downplay his surge? Man, you ought to spend more time on this blog.)

[Matt]

Huckabee is real, and appeals to real people. He hasn't had quite the $$$ of the others; hence the SLOW rise.

Now the rise itself is feeding further rise in polls, because people who have never heard of Mike Huckabee are researching and discovering he thinks how they think, and does not fit the mold of politicians who we are so tired of having to choose between rather than support.

Huckabee is best suited to take on any mud-slingers because he does not return fire. Hillary is rooting for Rudy, Huckabee would be too stark a contrast against her style, and he would win.

I'm with Pamela, This is only the Beginning.

[Kroneborge]

Huckabee doesn't need to spend money like the other candidates because he has many thousands of supporters donating their time and efforts. This is what a real grass roots movement looks like.

No more K street candidates, it's time to bring someone that will move us up instead of left to right. Huckabee is that man.

[Linda]

Mike certainly has my vote. WANT THE TRUTH? You can find it here:

http://www.mikehuckabee.com/?FuseAction=TruthSquad.Home

[Ann]

Huckabee appeals to everyone not just evangelicals. For one thing he is not a Washington insider and about every pundit gives him no chance. This just makes him that more appealing. He has numerous conservative Democrats with him as well as Republicans. He was a Baptist minister but he is for bringing optimism back to this great nation.. He is for a strong national defense as well as secure borders. He is just what this country needs at this time in history.

[Wallace]

But wait? I though this was supposed to be Ron Paul's year.

This "Huckabee climbs in polls" story is clearly yet another hit piece on the real future president...

[Burton]

What's really interesting is the poll at the bottom: Hillary is the favorite within the party, yet in a national contest Obama gets better numbers when paired against republicans . . .

[David Snoke]

Anyone who thinks Huckabee will start slinging mud to move higher doesn't know him at all. He won't.

The real question is whether he can start to put together a team of serious foreign policy and economics advisors at this stage, to convince people he is not just a one-man show.

[Jim]

Congratulations to Mike Huckabee.
It's good to pick off the front runners, one by one.
Now that he is the current poll climber, he'll be scrutinized a little harder.

It is VERY important that his record be gone over with a fine toothed comb.
Don't latch on, just because he is the current media darling.
Being the media favorite seems to be backfiring right and left.

But Best wishes anyway. Don't forget to educate yourself, before you decide.

[Jamie Zhou]

And this leaves the real fiscal conservatives.. where? Huckabee is a nice man, but not the person I want to see in the White House. Our budget is not going to get fixed under him-- and more than ever we need someone who knows and cares about economic policy.

[Gadbot]

Jim, Thanks for the warning. I've checked it all out over the past 4 months with extensive research. I wouldn't vote for anyone else. Well, I'm considering that if the GOP let's Huckabee slip through their hands I just might vote for Hillary, well, because frankly....... they'd deserve her. There is no one I would rather see UPLIFT (rather than tear apart) this country than Mike Huckabee.

And, I would argue, for any that wonder if he's 'peaking' too soon, that Gov. Huckabee has not yet peaked. I'm not sure he will until, oh, let's say Nov. 2008. I honestly believe that he will continue to bring new voters into the fold until election day. And that's after researching the positions you caution me about.

[Kurt]

Huck has compassion, intelligence, and most of all--character--to lead this country. He placed a picture frame with a label, "Our Boss" in his office as Governor of Arkansas. Each week or so he would place a new picture of an everyday citizen in the frame.

He deserves to lead, because he understands that to lead is to serve.

[Justin]

I've been supporting Mike Huckabee since he was barely even mentioned in the polls. It's been great to see him gradually climb in the polls. His message is resonating. You can't buy the presidency. Go Huckabee!!!

[Jane Williamson]

For in -depth discussions of Mike Huckabee, all the videos and information compiled in one place, plus forums, etc., go to grassroots at www. hucksarmy.com. JOIN US! WE ARE HAVING A BLAST!
www.hucksarmy.com

[Jude]

The numbers in the various polls are very fluid. I remember this from the last presidential election. One thing I know. Nearly everyone knows Rudy but not many are familiar with Huck yet. When they are serious about who to vote for they will see Mike Huckabee is the man for President. He actually has new ideas. He governed in a state that was heavily democrat yet was able to get roads built and some educational upgrades that were neaded. Was it easy. NO But he was able in the end to get stuff done. Check out his verticle politics. No more fighting or tearing each other apart. Lets work together Democrat and Republican, Americans all!

[David Bowman]

Why do we still see Romney in head to head national polls with the Democratic candidates when he is not even in double digits in national polls - yet Huckabee still is not taken seriously enough to be placed in national head to head polls when he is up to 17% nationally? Huckabee is now also the man to beat in Iowa. Clearly Huckabee is for real, and a serious contender to the nomination yet he is still consistently placed behind Thompson, McCain and Romney in the media pecking order. It is fairly clear that Huckabee is now probably the only clear and present threat to a Guliani win on the Republican side.

[Brently]

Huckabee's rise is not just an Iowa phenomenon among the many evangelicals there. Although Huckabee is a solid conservative he also represents the best of all ordinary Americans and it makes him and his message all the more appealing. The latest Rassmussen poll has Huckabee tied with Giuliani for first place nationally.

http://www.mikehuckabee.com/?FuseAction=Blogs.View&Blog_id=818

I believe the country wants real change not just from left to right or from Republican to Democrat or vice versa, but we want to see real leadership - we want substance over style for a change. We need someone who will bring us together. People are growing tired of the constant mud slinging, all the vitriol that has been polarizing the country from one extreme to the other is tearing us apart.

It's refreshing to see how Huckabee doesn't play the game, and instead manages to stay on his message of lifting America up. It's remarkable and inspiring to see someone actually model integrity and focus like that for whole country to see. I think it's what Christians call being salt and light in the world, or simply "glorifying God".

[Christine]

mikehuckabee.com Come check out Mike and his stance on all the issues .Join The Surge! There is such excitement within his grassroots volunteers that you can't help but want to be a part of Mike's campaign!
Mike has already beaten the Clinton machine several times in Arkansas politics and he can do it again! He's the only one that can, and she knows it!
Honesty, Integrity and all around likability just ooze from this guy, he is the next Great Communicator! Dems and independants are joining us to show everyone that Money can't buy votes! Mike has the Message, Mike is the Man!

[hecowe]

I really like Mike, but will he build the fence? He's very likable, a real person, doesn't appear to be a Bible-thumper -- you know, the holier-than-thous that can be so annoying. I'm worried about the sovereignty of our country -- that soft immigration record in Arkansas worries me a little. Fred Thompson was right when he said that a country that can't control it's own borders won't be a sovereign nation very long, but I don't think Fred has the gumption to do it. Guiliani doesn't want to, Romney might do it, but he's a little slick for my taste. Tancredo and Hunter are good men who have no chance. Where do I turn?

[Chris Campasano]

I think Huckabee is just starting - he is the best contender that the GOP has and has fought against the Clinton Machine and has won. He was a lone GOP in a heavily DEM state and almost all of his opponents in his elections were endorsed by Clinton.

Help mobilize those for Huck - come join the community for all Huckabee supporters. thehuckster.ning.com

[Michael Patterson]

I do not mind that Mitt is Mormon. I do mind that he is a politically expedient flip flopper setting the sails of his campaign to the latest breeze. Also seeing the way he spends his own money, I would not trust him with mine (that is our nation's money) I did not respect the way mutiple choice Mitt hemmed and hawed about water boarding as torture (which it is) saying he would need to consult his advisors, John McCain (and presumably, the latest polls) before deciding what would be appropriate. And we won't even get into his "it's not that time" answer to the question about his past statement of "looking forward to the time when gays can serve openly in the military" Mitt really comes across as a true weenie.