The question on Democrats' minds

And Barack Obama has been hearing it: Can he win the general election?

Beyond the give-and-take of the nomination fight, the thing Democrats want most from the 2008 election is to turn the White House from red to blue. And with such minor policy differences among the major Democratic candidates, the most significant aspect of any candidate could come down to whether the rank-and-file believe he or she can win in November.

A recent Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 62% of Democrats think Hillary Clinton has the best chance of winning (scroll down to question 18c), up from 48% in a February poll -- a significant leap in faith. For Obama, only 15% thought he had the best chance, similar to February, a virtual tie with the 14% for John Edwards, who was down significantly from February.

Of course, those numbers could reflect the bandwagon effect. But then again, that's a huge gulf between Clinton's perceived viability and the rest of the Democratic pack. And in politics, perceptions often count more than reality.

On the Republican side, the poll reflected the unsettled state of that race, with 46% saying they thought Rudy Giuliani could win in the fall, compared with 18% for John McCain, 12% for Fred Thompson and 9% for Mitt Romney.

But there's now a 100% chance someone will.

-- Scott Martelle

Comments

[Larry from Purdue]

Even if Clinton could win a general, which I think she can, she'd never get 60 votes in the Senate. And Republicans filibuster everything from energy to health care to trade because she always sets a divisive tone.

At least they'd work with her on going to war with Iran.

[vwcat]

Democrats need to come out the koolaid haze of yesterday. the 90s were not golden and Bill was acknowledged as the best president the republicans ever had.
They also need to open their eyes to the facts. Clinton has sky high negatives. half the voters, including a large amount of democrats like me, will never vote for her. ever. The republicans are drolling over running against her for a reason. They see her for what she really is. Our weakest candidate in the field.
Why do democrats always pick the weakest one. We always end up with the same type of candidate. Mondale, Dukakis, Gore 2000, Kerry. the dull establishment candidate. A then cry because we always loose the white house.
there is a reason why. Keep picking the weakest, dullest and most unlikable and you are looking at losing.
We never had a problem with choosing candidates until we began this 25 year establishment think. When we chose a real candidate we liked we ended up with an FDR or Kennedy. We now get a continuing rut of Mondale 2.0. every 4 years.
Yet, the democrats keep drinking their koolaid and forget that Bill threw our party under the bus to roll out republican friendly policies, along with the scandals and dramas and pushing the polarizing of a nation.
We do not need more of the same freak show. We need to address the serious problems facing this country and with Hillary you will find things so polarized you will know how it felt before the civil war.
I wish my party would get it's act together and think. clear their heads and see that Hillary is just more of the same dysfunctional garbage we have lived with and suffered with for 20 years.

[Christopher Burgis]

This analysis disturbs me to the core. Big corporate money Party politics is the root cause of the increasing failure of our governement in the last 20 years to truly represent the average American. If we continue to allow ourselves to think onjy on party terms and electability, without taking any bold risks, then we might as well admit that our election process is nothing more than 3 ring popularity circus bought and paid for by the selfish elite of this nation. Hillary may be more electable than Obama, but accirding to polls Obama is still very electable against all three GOP candidates.
We need to ask ourselves two very basic questions about our choice of candidate: Do I trust my candidate to place the needs of average Americans before the need of any Party, PAC or big corporate donor(s)? Do I beleive that my candidate is truly an honest person?
Two simple questions, perhaps, but when I apply them to the three Democratic front runners I find that Obama is the only candidate who passes both tests. If we continue to prioritize the party over the candidate, then we will once again advance the wrong candidate to guide our future. If we take an alternate course and advance the best candidate, instead of the most electable candidate, then maybe, just maybe, the American people will finally win for a change.