Opinion: The lay of the (Democratic) land
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Well, as we all head into the annual Thanksgiving nap -- maybe it has less to do with turkey tryptophan than football matchups like this -- we thought it would be useful to boil down the recent shifts in the Democratic landscape.
The two most significant shifts: Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama talking smack (we’re keeping the football theme going here) about each other, which lets John Edwards off the aggressor hook a bit and maybe revert to the nice-guy persona that marked his 2004 campaign. That strategy only landed him the No. 2 spot on the losing ticket, so maybe a toughening up was due -- but is snarkiness presidential?
How the verbal knock-around will play out is anyone’s guess, since there’s a fine line between pointing out differences with your opponents and coming off as a negative campaigner (Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean went negative in Iowa in 2004, contributing to their weak showing and early exits).
In this year’s race, the most recent poll in Iowa contained good news for Obama, though one survey does not necessarily a trend make. If it is indicative, with only six weeks to go, this is getting to be the time where momentum begins to be good.
In New Hampshire, Clinton has been losing some support, though still has a lot of ground to give. And she has comfortable leads in Nevada and South Carolina, as well.
So the challenge for Clinton is to keep Obama far enough back that a tight finish or even a loss in Iowa will, in hindsight, seem like an aberration as she racks up wins in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, then heads into Feb 5. with the big states -- California, New York and Illinois among them -- up for grabs.
Shifting to a pool metaphor, she might not run the table, but it’s looking pretty good for her. Which is why you’re seeing sharper attacks by her rivals. As Clinton said in the Las Vegas debate, they’re not going after her because she’s a woman, they’re going after her because she’s ahead.
Now wake up -- there’s only 32 shopping days left till Christmas.
-- Scott Martelle
