The lay of the (Republican) land

The narrative of the Republican nomination battle has been a little disjointed. Would the social conservatives ever embrace Rudy Giuliani? Will John McCain board that Straight Talk Express one more time? Anyone want seconds on the potatoes and gravy? ... Oh, sorry, getting ahead of ourselves.

Actually, in a lot of ways the Republican campaign, even though it hasn't generated the kind of base excitement as the Democratic campaign, could in the end prove to be more interesting. For the Democrats, the choice seems to be coming down to old versus new with a few folks hopping up and down yelling, "Hey, we're running too!"

For the Republicans, depending on how the nomination plays out, we could see a significant shift in control within the party. The power that the social conservatives have wielded with such success over the last few election cycles could have run its course, and how the party votes will be the tea leaves for analysts to pore over.

The upshot: Giuliani would not likely have had much success running against George Bush in 2000. That he may be the candidate to beat now speaks volumes about the shift within the party -- and the changed political environment, post 9/11. It also underscores the failure, so far, of a socially conservative party to demonstrate wide appeal. Fred Thompson seemed to have that potential, but his strength remains rooted in the region he comes from -- the South.

Giuliani remains the national poll leader. Mitt Romney holds the lead in Iowa and New Hampshire, has surged to a tie in South Carolina and, while trailing in Nevada, can't be counted out there, given the relatively high number of Mormons in the state. McCain hopes that, as in 2000, New Hampshire voters will flock to his banner. Mike Huckabee has been moving up in the polls, particularly in Iowa, and he seems to be gaining momentum within the Christian Right. Ron Paul has galvanized libertarians and some economic conservatives; the question is whether he can attract sufficient support to affect the nomination.

So there's a lot of uncertainty there, which is what ultimately could make the GOP nomination battle the more interesting of the two. As you head to the dessert table for more pie, keep this in mind: Romney can win Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, giving the pre-Feb. 5 media narrative a "Giuliani stumbles" track going into Super Duper Tuesday. But with Giuliani enjoying strong backing in delegate-heavy states such as California, Illinois, New York and New Jersey, he would seem in good position to bounce back.

Unless, of course, a new theme develops -- that the rank-and-file Republicans, many of whom view another Clinton administration as a sign of the apocalypse, decide someone else would be in better position to beat her.

Which, of course, is why the candidates keep slogging away. It also spotlights one of the delicious ironies of American political life: Most voters are cynical and doubt anyone can make much of  a difference while most politicians are optimists and believe they can make a difference.

It's a wonder we speak the same language.

-- Scott Martelle

   

Comments

[lane filler]

Anyone interested in a funny (but it really happened) column about what Huckabee is really like face-to-face should try:
http://goupstate.us/index.php/lanefiller/2007/11/02/title_14

[Sam]

The reason Thompson hasn't caught on isn't because the party is turning its back on social conservatism. The reason Thompson hasn't caught on is because rightly or wrongly he isn't viewed as being a good candidate (see james dobsons criticizing email)

Without knowing what Mr. Martelle's credentials are, I would say that is was highly irresponsible for the LA Times to run such an ignorant piece of political journalism.

[Brian Horsfield]

The trouble with polls is they call registered republican voters, and exclude those planning to join the party before the primary. In my precinct in Iowa the last GOP Presidential Primary had a staggeringly low turnout. Only 10 showed up out of several hundred registered republicans. People left the GOP in droves in what was the lowest turnout on record. And many have not rejoined, they are sitting on the sidelines so the polsters dont call them. But when they do, Ron Paul wins in spades, as shown in a nationwide Zogby poll of all voters last week. http://truthseeds.org/2007/11/19/ron-paul-wins-latest-zogby-poll/
And whenever the GOP have a Straw Poll lately, almost all are won by Dr Paul: http://www.ronpaul2008.com/straw-poll-results/

[Jim Creesman]

From everyone I've spoken to, I think Zogby is right. The mainstream media is going to be shocked with the strength of Ron Paul's showing, and I'm all for it.

[Howard]

The dynamic that no one is talking about with Rudy is what happens as the conservatives in the field drop from the race. At this point one has to assume Romney survives through Feb 5. Huckabee, even with a win or strong showing in Iowa is gone by Feb 5, same with McCain, and all the others except perhaps Thompson. However, I wouldn't put money on Thompson at this point. Even if he wins SC, he doesn't have the money nor the will to campaign furiously in multiple states. If he loses SC, and he very well could, he is done.

The reason this is important is this, where do huckabee's, Thompson's, Tancredo, etc. etc. votes go after they are gone? NOT to Rudy. I would guess about half of McCains votes are potential rudy supporters. That puts rudy maxing out at upper 30's maybe 40%. If the rest of the votes are not split up on Super Duper Tuesday among at least two other conservatives, rudy is toast.

So the question is this. We know Romney has built in staying power and organization. Can any of the other conservatives generate enough momentum (and money) in the early states to hang until Feb 5 and split the conservative vote for Rudy. Thompson appears to be the only other possiblity. McCain doesn't count becaused he likely hurts Rudy as much as he helps.

If it does come down to Romney and Rudy on Feb 5. Romney has it, especially if he does take the first several states.

[mary kirk]

Well,this former democrat will be voting for John McCain,the underfunded,slow n' steady candidate.

[Jeugenen]

DAWN OF THE AMERICAN REFORMATION, AND END OF THE ERA OF THE UGLY AMERICAN
This Ron Paul Libertarian rebellion is an escalation and re-orientation of the American Cultural War, by the American People, against the rising governmental tyranny by Neoconservative Republicans and Leftist Democrats.
It is sweeping across America like a wildfire - ignited by the illegal and unnecessary invasion of Iraq. It raises many crucial questions, such as:
Where does the American Constitution give my government the right to sacrifice precious American wealth and blood, in interests of domestic and foreign lobbies?
Where does the American Constitution give my government the right to allow my nation to be invaded and permanently occupied by illegal aliens?
Where does the American Constitution give my government the right to support the sacrificial killing of children, by their own mothers?
Where does the American Constitution give my government the right to discriminate against traditional religious practices in public schools, universities, marriage institutions, armed forces, and governmental offices?
This creeping governmental tyranny, driven by perverse special interests, has now been going on for so many decades, like the illegal alien invasion, that the impending American Reformation is regarded with fear and loathing, by those who are to lose their illicit gains.
Like Gandhi, Ron Paul is drawing his intrepid volunteers from the full spectrum of humanity; and World is cheering him on to victory.

[Dorothy Fairview]

Ron Paul had an astounding display of support in St Petersburg. Airplane and boat banners. A rented theater filled with cheering supporters. Ten tables in the park offering t-shirts, books, brochures, etc. Busses to transport the people from one place to another. All done by local volunteers. The papers have not reported any of this. It is being suppressed, like Christmas. He was not given a fair opportunity to express his views in the debate. The powers that be must be very much afraid of him and his ideas.

[Jeugenen]

RON PAUL FEAR AND LOATHING

To better understand why the Ron Paul Rebellion is regarded with such great fear and loathing, Google:

1. Human Events Ron Paul Interview
2. PBS Ron Paul Interview

To see how the unbiased People of World regard Ron Paul, Google: Who Would the World Elect

[Jeugenen]

TREASON AGAINST GOD AND COUNTRY

When did Giuliani's Christian God give him the right to support Human sacrifice, women killing their own children?

When did his American Constitution give him the right to sacrifice the wealth and blood of the American People, on behalf of domestic and foreign lobbies?

If neither his Christian God, nor his American Constitution, are sacred to him; why would his promises to the American People be sacred to him?