Richardson plays political roulette, moves chips to Iowa

Bill Richardson, obviously with an eye on the polls, apparently is shifting more staff from Nevada and South Carolina to Iowa, where the caucuses are less than two months away.  The polls are viewable over at Real Clear Politics, and when you digest them you realize the New Mexico governor's problem is that he hasn't caught on with many Democratic voters despite an engaging series of ads hyping his executive-branch experience.

So two narratives emerge here.  First, Richardson is putting nearly all his chips on Iowa hoping to catapult himself from second tier to a respectable first-tier showing.  The most recent Iowa Zogby poll showed him with 9% support, compared with 28% for Hillary Clinton, 25% for Barack Obama and 21% for John Edwards.  In poll-speak, that's a virtual three-way tie for first.  And Richardson isn't one of them.

If Richardson doesn't crack through and edge out one of the top three in Iowa, his chances of doing much in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina get much longer -- he's in the single digits in all three places now, and barely registers at all in South Carolina.

So Iowa might not be do or die for Richardson, but it's pretty close.  And remember, he doesn't have to win, just exceed expectations.  By a lot.  So how do you do that?  You start moving the warm bodies in -- joining Edwards and Chris Dodd in moving the troops, like a game of Risk.

But is it too little, too late?  Iowa is not the kind of place where you can drop in and make a splash.  The caucuses respond best to solid local organization, which takes time, staff and cash.  And although there are a fair number of undecided voters -- 12% in the Zogby poll -- there aren't enough to matter for Richardson.

Which brings us to the second narrative.  There's less than two months before the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, but the candidates lose most of Thanksgiving week and pretty much all of Christmas week and the days leading up to New Year's Day, because if they aren't dressed like elves the first week or wearing college football uniforms the second, then no one is going to care.

So it's an eight-week calendar with more than two weeks already blacked out.  Add in holiday shopping as a voter distraction and suddenly the election calendar bears a sticker sort of like the one you see in your car's side mirror: Dates in the future may be a lot closer than you think.

-- Scott Martelle

Comments

[Dr.R.D.B.(Ben)Laime]

Right on target with Richardson. He's got two more chances in the debates, yet if the next two go like the previous ones, he will be left out in the cold. Part of his challenge is to prove he's what he says he is. Folks in New Mexico, where I reside(and a Democrat), know he's a "me, me, I, I," shouter, yet he's really not accomplished a lot, and the state is next to Louisanna in corruption(mostly all Dems). If voters in Iowa and the rest of the states knew what a "toy boy"(loves toys like a railroad train that doesn't go hardly anywhere and a spaceport for millionaires). He drops a new program whenever he feels it will look good in the media. And a close examination of his record in Clinton's administration will make folks think more than twice(especially when he zapped a Los Alamos researcher who was not guilty of what Richardson said he was).

[David Buchanan]

Apparently the good doctor is not a doctor of history. Bill Richardson won re-election by 69.1% of the vote, including 40% of Republicans and virtually all the Democrats. Sounds like New Mexicans have a much different view than the comment above.

As for Wen Ho Lee, Governor Richardson erred on the side of caution in a highly secure environment. I would take that "error" any time over inactivity or malaise over national security.

As for Iowa, it is unfortunate that our country's future is determined by what happens in Iowa, which has less delegates than Los Angeles. But that is the hand he is dealt. Soft support for the other candidates, undecideds and a strong following among Independents makes Iowa viable for the Richardson campaign.

Stay tuned. Governor Richardson is doing better than Kerry was at this time 4 years ago, and Richardson is not taking out a second on his home to finance his campaign!

[Stephen Cassidy]

Richardson is doing what it takes to win the nomination, nothing more, nothing less. Only Obama and Clinton can afford a subpar showing in Iowa given the millions they have in the bank. Everyone else has to beat expectations in Iowa or they won't be competitive (or even in the race) come Feb. 5th. And Richardson is well positioned for a breakout showing in Iowa. Richardson offers the best combination of experience, position on the issues, leadership skills and vision of the candidates in the race.

[Ken Camp]

Another point is that the Richardson campaign is moving some of its operatives out of Nevada and into Iowa for them to gain more experience with the caucus process so they can then go back and apply that experience in Nevada. That's not putting all of his chips on Iowa, that's planning ahead. Besides, with Iowa less than 60 days away, who wouldn't want their best operatives there trying to win it.

[Expat Teacher]

Just to note, although the campaign is moving people from Nevada, they have also hired staff to cover those staff departures so there is no net change in campaign staff in Nevada.

In South Carolina, with 50% of the Democratic primary voters being African-American, it will be tough for anyone but Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton to get much of the vote in South Carolina. Even local boy, John Edwards, isn't contesting South Carolina.

It should also be worth noting that South Carolina is a primary state, while Iowa is a caucus state. Primary states require less organization from the candidates because primaries are easier for voters to cast their ballot than the longer and drawn out caucus format.

Also, South Carolina will be the 4th of the early states, so whoever has the momentum will capture a lot of those voters still undecided. It is easier to generate momentum with a win in Iowa and New Hampshire than to try to fight the tide in the 4th state.

[Larry from Purdue]

Richardson is a good candidate who could actually get things passed through Congress, unlike Clinton or Edwards, but I just don't think he's run a very good campaign to date.

So yes, too little too late.

[John H]

Richardson can actually win next November. He's a moderate, he's got execuative experience, foriegn policy experience, and he wins the 'someone I'd like to sit down and have a beer with at the bar' contest. Moreover he can bring New Mexico for sure and Colorado likely into the Democratic electoral column -- if you do that you don't need Flordia to put a winning set of blue states together.

If you want to win next November, you really need to consider Richardson.

[Timeka Sharpe]

Bill Richardson needs alot of help in this election. I am doing a report on him inschool and it sucks because i can't find anything he's accomplished and thats bad. Come on Bill do something amazing or that will leave everyone thinking.... Who was that guy?

[John, Des Moines]

Where was he when Biden moved his troops to Iowa weeks ago?

Is he just now realizing how important the caucuses are here?

What a dufus, this type of lack of judgment and slow action would never work in the White House -- if you can't run a campaign you probably can't run the country.

Kudos to Biden for putting it all in Iowa from the start, don't worry Mr. Future President, we won't let you down.

Biden-Courage, Conviction, Experience-2008 & 2012