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'I'm the front-runner.' 'No, I'm the front-runner.'

November 5, 2007 |  9:14 am

Part of the strategy of being a front-runner is to look like a front-runner, and apparently Mitt Romney has begun trying on that particular suit in Iowa, where he leads in polls despite finishing back in the pack in national surveys.

In a swing through the state late last week, the former Massachusetts governor generally ignored Rudy Giuliani (who has on occasion donned the front-runner mantle for himself), Fred Thompson, John McCain and the other rivals for the Republican presidential nomination, and instead focused on a target on the other side of the aisle: Hillary Clinton.

Of course, the immediate benefit of beating up on Clinton is that it appeals to the Republican base. Beating up on fellow Republicans, on the other hand, can backfire.

Romney has made no secret of his early-state strategy. He's doing well in Iowa and New Hampshire, and come mid-January, if he can boast of taking those two early plums, then the momentum could build through Nevada. He trails there now, but a relatively high Mormon population could help on caucus day. He's already tracking surprisingly high in South Carolina, making a race of it despite the influence there of evangelical Christians who tend to be suspicious of Romney's Mormonism. He's also doing well in Michigan, where he was born and where his father was once governor. Good showings in some or all of those states could mitigate a likely drubbing in Florida (too many retired New Yorkers).

Under that scenario, Romney could go into Feb. 5, when 20 or so states hold nominating contests, riding a wave. And that will be a true test of strategies. Can an early-state focus work when there are so many states up for grabs Feb. 5? Can locally focused campaigns change the national narrative? And is there a brainwash, emotional breakdown or unrevealed skeleton still out there as a wild card?

Great spectator sport, no?

-- Scott Martelle


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