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Odds long but improving for Thompson, Paul in Nevada

LAS VEGAS -- Ron Paul and Fred Thompson have seen strong gains in a recent Zogby poll here, but they still have a long way to go.  And the poll has some bad news for Rudy Giuliani -- an erosion of support from 37% to 28% since the last Zogby poll here in April, though he still leads Mitt Romney by 8 percentage points.

Thompson's numbers climbed from 7% to 13%, and Paul saw a gain from 1% to 7%.  Interestingly, Paul has a bit of a gender gap here -- 12% support among Republican men and 2% among Republican women.

For the Democrats -- who will debate Thursday night at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas -- the poll found little has changed, which is interesting because the Democrats have been spending more time campaigning here than the Republicans.

Hillary Clinton moved up two percentage points to 37% from April; Barack Obama moved down two percentage points to 19%.  John Edwards was unchanged at 15%.  Bill Richardson, the New Mexico governor, isn't getting much neighborly affection -- he moved up 1 percentage point to 6%.

The polls found the undecideds at 16% for Republicans and 17% for Democrats, which is high -- but Nevadans apparently are more sure of themselves than folks in New Hampshire.

-- Scott Martelle

 
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These poll numbers are garnered from calls placed to a list of voters who participated in the last primaries, aka "likely voters". The assumption is that a random sample of these people will accurately portray the general preferences of those who will vote this time around.
I don't know about the nature of Thompson supporters' demographics, but Ron Paul's supporters include large numbers of people who did not vote in the last primaries due to dissatisfaction with the candidates, were disgusted with conventional politicians as a whole, felt that the outcome was inevitable, or were too young to vote, among other reasons. Also, change has been so great in the communications and information technologies fields that it renders the contact lists non-representative and irrelevant. It is quite reasonable to suspect that the polls we've been watching are severely, fatally flawed.

"Interestingly, Paul has a bit of a gender gap here -- he has 12% support among Republican men and 2% among Republican women."

If I had to guess, I'd say this gender gap exists because the women who are openminded enough to consider ron paul have already left the republican party a long time ago. Who could blame them?

Who'd have thought that a historically mainstream Republican with a classically conservative message would end up sounding so liberal that he is accused by some of being a radical, and by others as, "certifiably crazy"? I guess this illustrates just how far the neo-cons have dragged this country into their bottomless pit of fear, avarice, and greed. After hearing Ron Paul's views, some of which I do not agree with, I realize that as president, he may do things that will anger me. At least I'll be in a free country and will not have to fear being arrested for voicing my opinions. Americans used to carry a lot of pride and we thought of ourselves as the "good guys" in this world. After the revelations of Abu Grabass, water boarding, and out right rape and murder, many don't feel so proud these days. The reason Ron Paul's message resonates with people is because he uses concise, simple terms to explain complex issues in ways that are clearly understood by most Americans. It also doesn't hurt that what he says has the ring of truth. His words remind me of what it means to be an American. "It's the Constitution, Stupid!"

Yes, and many of Ron Paul's supporters are independents and Democrats!

Regardless if you are a republican or a democrat you cannot deny that neither party has produced a viable candidate that represents their party values and supports the constitution of the United States of America. It has become a popularity contest, the majority of the nation has become lazy and relies on the media instead of research to tell them who is the best person for the job. If you want the government to take care of you then vote for any of the front runners in the polls, they are all the same. If you love your country and want to protect the constitution as the law of the land then Dr. Paul is the only qualified candidate with a proven record to support all Americans in life liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

The gender gap could be due to his very pro-life personal beliefs. Women may see his opinion that it should be left to the states to decide as threatening them if they are 'pro-choice'. I think women are more pro-choice than men, that's just my opinion though since I have nothing to back it up.

Since I as a man cannot become pregnant maybe I am more arrogant about being pro-life than a woman would be.

All that being said i am very pro Ron Paul and will be voting for him, and you should too!

Ron Paul Fights Truth Decay !!!

I hope we make it to the election before the fools we have in government invade Iran and get us all Nuked by Russia.

Ron Paul's Economic Stance Will Be Vindicated In The Coming Months. Runaway Inflation Is On Its Way; Bankruptcy Is Spreading As The Disease Of Out Spending Supply Continues. (Too Bad We All Have To Suffer To Prove Him Right.) The Money Men Are Panicking; Read The Money Articles That Are Currently In Circulation.

Save The Republic; Tell All To Vote Ron Paul !!!

Interesting article, I was just reading another piece how Zogby isnt telling the whole truth here.

Ron Paul's Nevada Polling Numbers - What Zogby Left Out
http://www.transworldnews.com/NewsStory.aspx?id=27922&cat=5

"Zogby's reporting of their latest Nevada poll results was lacking in that they compared how the candidates fared in November with how they did back in April -- despite the fact that there have been 5 Nevada state polls taken by other pollsters.

Their claims of Romney and Thompson gaining in those polls contradict the results from those other 5 polls as their support was actually stronger in them.

The other story worthy of reporting is how Ron Paul is sitting above Huckabee and just under McCain in this poll at 7%. That should be major news for the Ron Paul campaign as not only does it show he is gaining traction but that his campaign is slowly establishing credibility and viability in states other than New Hampshire."

Ron Paul at 7%. That is exciting!

Ha !! Today's polls means nothing. The "nite" is young, and yaw'll ain't seen nothing yet. We "Paulites" are confident and growing in number by leaps and bounds. Mark our words. Ron Paul will be sitting in The Rose Garden wearing that beautiful, genuine smile come January 09, while the political thieves and traitors go a packin and a skedaddlin.

Let it be dear God, let it be.

Oh glory. . . I say, oh glory, glory day.

Ron Paul continues to improve in many states and nationally. Also, national media outlets are looking at Dr. Paul as a serious contender in the early primaries.

If you'd like to find out more about the Ron Paul campaign, check out www.ronpaulnewsroom.com

Ron Paul has been creating many new Republican voters that were previously Independents, Libertarians and Democrats. These new Republicans are an undefined factor as of yet, but there are many indications that they are in fact quite a large group. I have created a website to show that Ron Paul is in fact a "top tier" candidate.

Please visit www.thecaseforronpaul.com and jecide for yourself.

I love RON PAUL........I like what he stand for. He refuses a congressional pension because it is an abuse of power. ASK HITLERY AND OBAMA TO
DO THAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! RON PAUL IS NOT FOR SALE TO THE LOBBYISTS AND
SPECIAL INTEREST GROUPS *****THAT IS WHY PEOPLE LIKE HIM........

I was just wondering why the Ron Paul campaign isn't selling his record more in the ads in New Hampshire? The fact that he consistently votes against big government and anything that infringes civil liberties.

The fact that he returns a portion of his Congressional office budget to the Treasury each year, that he put his kids through college at his own expense to make a point about personal responsibility, that he opts out of the lucrative Congressional pension scheme, that he rejected Medicare and Medic-aid as a doctor and treated people at his own expense out of charity...?

If people understood the honesty of his character, and that he's not like other politicians, people might vote for him even if they disagree with him on some of the issues.

The first comment about who is polled is interesting. I am an example of this. Just today I went down to make sure I was registered to vote in the primaries here in Tennessee. It will be the first time I have ever voted in the primaries. I will be voting for Dr. Paul.

If the general election were being held in January, Dr. Paul would certainly have little chance. Since very few people have voted in the primaries before and the "traditional" republican vote will be split between Romney, Guiliani, and (maybe) Thompson, a relatively small very motivated group of voters can make a big difference in the primaries.

If Dr. Paul doesn't win the nomination, I hope Huckabee can. The way I see it if we can't rid ourselves of our big government, we need a plan that would stimulate economic growth and raise enough tax money to be able to afford it--the Fair Tax plan that Huckabee promotes would do that.

Ron Paul is a neo-Nazi Islamo-fascist terrorist sympathizer. He is a traitor who should be executed for the crime of treason for his disloyalty to President George Bush II.

Fred Thompson is a fat lazy old man.

Mitt Romney is a child-molesting polygamist.


GO RUDY GO RUDY GO RUDY

GO GO GO

RUDY RUDY RUDY

Does the main stream media think that the American public is stupid enough not to understand that a non-status quo candidate gets most of his support from those who didn't vote in the last Republican primary election? HELLO!!! Only the hard-core Republicans who mindlessly voted for Neocon Bush in the last primary are being polled!!!!!! Of course Ron Paul will score low with them. Since the last Republican primary only had a 6.6% turnout, Ron Paul supporters probably outnumber them 100 - 1. As the message of freedom and constitutional government spreads, his support base will continue to grow exponentially.

I can't wait to see the dumbfounded looks on the faces of the elite's mouthpieces (like Sean Hannity) when Ron Paul wins the primaries by a landslide.

The Reason Paul Is Gaining So Much Is The Passion His Supports Have. Myself Included & Check out this Google employee who just quit his job to volunteer for the campaign: http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/Google_Employee_Quits_His_Job_To_Volunteer_For_Ron_Paul

These statements are similar to the many Ron Paul has said in his campaign, and represents my feelings and beliefs as well....

"You know not what you are given, but forever will you know what has been taken away from you..."

"As long as we live beyond our means we are destined to live beneath our means." - Ron Paul at a CNBC Debate in Michigan (10/09/07)

It is interesting that many Republicans like to discredit Ron Paul because he attracts independents and Democrats but yet they love Ronald Reagan a man that was known to have won election by getting so-called Reagan Democrats. Ron Paul is more like Ronald Reagan in more ways than the neo-cons wish to admit. Ron Paul would unite the country like no other president.

The bad thing about a Paul presidency is that he will want the American people to be involved, he wants to take away power from the executive (good luck undoing all of the "executive privileges" that Clinton and Bush have signed into law) and give it to the people...the question is, are we, the American people, ready for that great responsibility again?

Most Americans have faith in our system and leaders to the extent they fail to believe the scope to which the greedy elite has sunk and will continue to go to deceive, control and manipulate their minds and thinking. The Neo-Conservative spin-machine weaves disinformation better than a Chinese textile factor does fine silk, fooling so many of the, otherwise, well-meaning intelligent folks with a wicked distorted reason for the current US foreign policy. A very real problem, one not easily solved. Hopefully, it can be overcome by spreading the truth with valid and rational arguments for a noninterventionist foreign policy or a sound monetary policy, and other brilliant ideas as offered by Dr. Ron Paul. Having just experienced 8 years of the worst and dumbest President possible, this country deserves at least 4 years form its best and brightest, Congressman Ron Paul.
Maintaining an interventionist foreign policy today only serves the needs of special interest concerns such as American oil companies and the other from military industrial complex. Unless you are a major stockholder in one of these concerns then it does nothing for you. In respect to the national interest of the United States, all it does is make us look like the bullies of the world, which is why we are now loathed all around the planet. In contrast to the era before WWII, when The United States had a noninterventionist foreign policy, most all countries and peoples admired the US.

Wake up people elect Dr Paul, bring the troops home and put them on our border!

David Douglas

Good analysis Darryl.

“Build it and they will come” Very appropriate for an Iowan slogan. I believe that the whole nation is rallying to that baseball field of hopes and dreams; dreams that have faded away under years of lies and deception. There is hope in the heart and minds of the masses that are awakening. They are remembering that anything that was ever worth fighting was not easy. We have a great example of the good doctor who has the strength and guts to stand alone on a platform speaking the truth while the “others” ridicule his saneness. This giant of a man will be remembered for his bravery and shining light at a time when corruption and darkness prevailed. All we need to do as citizens; is rise up and declare our citizenship back. Ron Paul can carry us only so far, the rest is up to us. Support all you can with money, time and your heart!

Most women that I have talked to reject Paul for his anti-abortion stance. Unfortunately they also don't understand that even Ron Paul believes that it is up to us, at the state level to determine whether that legal or not for ourselves.

Ron Paul is hurtling toward the front of the Republican pack. He is no "long shot", he is in the "top tier"...

http://truthalert.net/Republican%20Presidential%20Candidate%20Rankings.htm

I'll be donating $100 to TeaParty07 on December 16th and I've already RSVP'd for the Iowa Walk-Off.
I've never felt compelled to drive 200 miles to hand out literature in December in Iowa for a movement until now.

This is the real thing folks.

rEVOLution!

Ron Paul '08!

Well, maybe "they" can rush the elections before the truth gets out---that Paul is speaking for many, many Americans who value America over some globalistic "goo" that a bunch of phony Republicans (and neocon Democrats) are lusting for.

I noticed one of the comments looks like a Rudy "spam-job." Please investigate it.

And please, pollsters, try to grapple with the 21st century. I'm almost 45 years old and i don't even answer my land-line phone half the time. I have YET to be polled on any national candidate, although I have been a registered and faithful party voter for over 26 years. Who the Hell is picking up the phone?

im an independant and am going to be a republican soon so i can vote for Ron Paul
I dont care what the polls say we need somone like him soon -
to stand against special interests our debt and for our constitution
i don't agree with everything but we still have congress and four years or 8 of a Ron Paul I think is what our country needs, it definatley cant afford another plastic fake smiling republicrat I hope some of them get tarred and feathered actually I know that sounds bad but I hope it happens I am sick if the lesser of two evils
tottally sick and disgusted of them

Ok, so how many Democratic women are voting for Paul, and how many independents, and how many Libertarians, and non declareds?

Your huge mistake in counting numbers for Paul is the faulty assumption that past Republicans are voting for him. Hardly anyone who would have voted for Bush a second time would be likely to vote for Ron Paul. So, how are your polls even close to accurate?

I can pretty much assure you that no dems will be voting for Rudy or Mitt, but Paul has thousands of them on his side that you are not counting.

I have never voted Republican in my life. I have never donated to a candidate in my life. I went to Yale Law School and have been practicing law for 24 years. I am voting for Ron Paul and donating all I can to his campaign.

So count me.

I dare you.

If you don't change your polling methods I am afraid you are going to look like fools when your predictions are so far off as to make you embarrassed and possibly destroy the Zogby company. Same with all the other pollsters.

Times have changed and the polling has not.

How can you possibly expect to explain a candidate who get 4.38 million dollars spontaneously from his supporters in one day from a man you typically say has 1% of the vote? The campaign had nothing to do with the money. They didn't lift one finger to raise it. Not one envelope was sent out. Not a penny spent on a stamp. These are supporters demanding that he become President. Not hoping, not curious, but demanding! And they are putting their money where their mouth is. Every single person who donated a dime will vote for Ron Paul. That is a guarantee. Why else do you think they are sending him money? Not because they are going to get giant favors. These donations came in at 100 bucks a piece. Not 2300 dollar dinners.

These are not people trying to purchase the most government favors and expecting enormous returns on their money. They are giving for the first time ever to a candidate because they love him.

And you folks think he has roughly 5% nationwide. You better start counting all the other categories of people that are voting for Ron Paul.

I am British and am hoping America chooses Ron Paul. He is the only guy fighting for your freedom and would restore not only your nation, but respect for your nation. Also I belelieve it will send a ripple of freedom around the world, making the whole planet a better place to live.

You don't have to keep voting for the fearmongers! Back the guy with the positive plan. Back Ron Paul.

Matt

Fred Thompson gets it and people are beginning to understand that. To ever refer to Fred as "fat and lazy" is a sign of desperation and a lack of class. He is neither fat nor lazy. You simply cannot have the success he has had by being lazy. As people hear Fred's message, they will see that he is honest with the American people and stands by principles that most of us hold dear.

I'm so proud of all the positive comments here for Ron Paul

I hope you are all going to be supporting the tea party!!

November5th donation: $100.

Tea Party donation Dec 16th: $100.

Sean Hanity announcing that Ron Paul has won NH: Priceless.

Ron Paul is has clearly surpassed John McCain and is now a "top tier" candidate. I have gathered the evidence to support this statement and created a website.

Please visit www.thecaseforronpaul.com and judge for yourself.

Ron Paul 2008 ' Entitlements create theft by TAX '

Those interested in the reason Paul garnered less support from Women in the Poll should remember that politicians generally win because they are more popular. More extroverted, charismatic or charming candidates will tend to win out over introverted, dry candidates(which is one reason we have so many buffoons representing us in Washington). Paul is neither introverted or dry but his almost pragmatic leanings combined with his having been a gynecologist must certainly have an impact on his sex appeal. He's no stud like a Gulliani or a Thompson.

True, Dr. Paul is no stud. He just helps them become parents after the fact. :)

But we don't need sex appeal in the White House, we need leadership in a new and better direction! Dr. Paul provides that. Nobody else running does.

As for Thompson and Guliani being studs, if you mean 2x4s, then both mentally and physically you are correct, becuase we are "board" with both of them and they are about as smart as posts anyway.

RP08

I am one of those who voted twice for Bush. I am also one of those who has never made
a donation to a political candidate before, neither had my wife. We both have made a donation
to Ron Paul and will be voting for him.

I am no longer a Republican or a Democrate, I am an American, because Ron Paul has
cured my apathy.

RJ South Bend, Indiana


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About the Columnist
A veteran foreign and national correspondent, Andrew Malcolm has served on the L.A. Times Editorial Board and was a Pulitzer finalist in 2004. He is the author of 10 nonfiction books and father of four. Read more.
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