Iowa poll shows state marches to its own drummer
A new poll out of Iowa underscores the disconnect between voter preferences in that state -- among members of both parties -- and nationwide trends.
Hillary Clinton may be the dominant choice of Democrats nationally, as shown by the recent L.A. Times/Bloomberg Poll, but the party's contest in Iowa remains very much up for grabs between her and Barack Obama, with John Edwards also in contention, the new survey found.
In the Republican race, although Mitt Romney barely got into double digits in The Times/Bloomberg Poll and ran significantly behind the leader, Rudy Giuliani, their standings are reversed in Iowa.
Here are the rounded-off results from the University of Iowa Hawkeye poll, conducted over seven days in mid-October of those who said they expected to attend the state caucuses that kick off the nominating races on Jan. 3:
Democrats: Clinton, 29%; Obama, 27%; Edwards, 20%; Bill Richardson, 7%; Joe Biden, 5%.
Republicans: Romney, 36%; Giuliani, 13%; Mike Huckabee, 13%; Fred Thompson, 11%; John McCain, 6%.
You can view the poll here.
The results may give more pause to those tracking the Democratic race than the GOP contest. A win in Iowa has been the linchpin of Romney's strategy, and he has built an impressive organization there. Giuliani, by contrast, has invested relatively little in the state; his campaign is premised on the assumption he can overcome a poor showing.
Historically, in fact, "bounces" coming out of Iowa have been much more pronounced in the Democratic field, so the results from the new poll are bound to mainly hearten the beleaguered Obama camp. Still, a couple of caveats are in order.
The poll's margin of error is large -- more than 5 percentage points for its Democratic numbers and almost 6 points on the Republican side. And if ever there was a Democratic campaign that seems positioned to withstand a less-than-stellar performance in Iowa and quickly regain its footing, it would seem to be Clinton's.
-- Don Frederick
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Posted by Don Frederick on October 29, 2007 in Caucus , Democratic Politics , Iowa , Political History , Polls , Presidential Campaign , Republican Politics | Permalink
Don Frederick has served as an editor helping guide coverage of every presidential election since 1984. He is a third-generation Washingtonian, so watching the political world comes naturally to him.
Andrew Malcolm's immigrant parents repeatedly stressed the importance of active participation in a democracy. Early lessons included learning the alphabetical list of states by watching televised roll calls of national political conventions. That childhood exposure led to a lifelong fascination with politics, including 40-plus years of covering them and a brief stint practicing them as press secretary to Laura Bush in 1999-2000.
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I respect the fact that the voters of Iowa are so independent when it comes to choosing a presidential candidate.However,it is extremely disappointing that the vast majority of Iowans do not participate in their state's caucuses.If the citizens of our nation want a government which is responsive to the people,then the citizens should vote in the primaries,caucuses and general elections.Our democratic republic needs individuals willing to get involved.
Posted by: Shawn M. Hussey | October 29, 2007 at 02:45 PM
This country will have a serious case of buyer's remorse of Hillary becomes president. Glad to see Iowa Dems seem to understand that better than most.
Posted by: Larry from Purdue | October 29, 2007 at 08:53 PM