How to argue that night is day

Pity the poor spin-meisters, especially when their job requires them to ignore reality (or, more precisely, reality as decreed by pundits aplenty).

A consensus quickly developed in the political world that Hillary Clinton exposed some vulnerabilities during Tuesday's candidate debate. Indeed, as The Times' Peter Nicholas and Michael Finnegan report in today's story here on our website and in Thursday's print editions, her chief rivals in the Democratic presidential race -- for the first time in recent months -- sense a crack in her seeming invincibility.

But lots of folks get paid to bathe her in a positive glow, regardless. So here's the lead from the memo that, playing off Barack Obama's slogan, provided Camp Clinton's view of Tuesday's proceedings: "What happens when the 'politics of pile-on' replaces the 'politics of hope?' Hillary comes out on top."

That, at least, is what was offered for public consumption. We would guess the chatter behind closed doors was less upbeat. You can read the rest of the memo here.

And you can contrast this missive with the memos that came from the Obama and John Edwards campaigns (here and here).

We imagine those two were easier to write.

-- Don Frederick

Clinton Library Secrets II: Hillary trips over her sealed papers

Well, it didn't take long after last night's debate for Hillary Clinton's waffling over keeping her first lady documents secret to ignite a firestorm.

The Barack Obama camp, which needs a long-running issue to gain some traction and poll points on the front-runner, smelled blood on the issue and widely distributed a memo today titled "Turning the Page on Secrecy, Calculation and Caution."

As we reported at length here the other day and our Peter Nicholas first chronicled for the nation last summer, three years after the Clinton presidential library opened in Little Rock, three years after Hillary Clinton told Larry King "everything's going to be available," 21 months after the library's documents became subject to the Freedom of Information Act, virtually nothing has been released about her role in those eight White House years. And it won't be before the 2008 election.

In fact, Newsweek uncovered a letter to the National Archives, the documents' keepers, from Bill Clinton specifically ruling out release of communications between himself and his wife.

Yet, those are the years and times that candidate Clinton now constantly cites as proof that she has the experience necessary to become president. So, trust her, she says, it's all there. You just can't see it.

Last night Tim Russert asked about that. It was painful to watch the squirming and disingenuousness. "Actually, Tim, the Archives is moving as rapidly as the Archives moves," Clinton said. "There's about 20 million pieces of paper there and they are moving, and they are releasing as they do their process. And I am fully in favor of that."

If Clinton, who has harshly criticized the Bush administration for its secrecy, thought that was...

A "rocky" reference by Obama

The quip fell flat anyway.  But if Barack Obama and his brain trust had thoroughly thought through the subliminal message sent by the jest with which he opened Tuesday night's debate among the Democratic presidential candidates, we think they might have junked it.

Given that Obama had telegraphed that he planned to sharpen his criticism of Hillary Clinton, the entire political universe knew the debate would start with an invitation for him to take his best shot. Obama, however, decided to lower the temperature of the anticipated face-off.  And, in light of the debate's Philadelphia setting, he sought to do that by referencing the film famously linked to the city.

"Well, first of all, I think some of this stuff gets overhyped," Obama said.  "In fact, I think this has been the most hyped fight since Rocky fought Apollo Creed, although the amazing thing is I'm Rocky in this situation" (i.e. -- isn't it odd that I'm playing the white guy?).

He got a smattering of laughs.  But here's what struck us -- Rocky lost his first fight with Apollo Creed. Indeed, as they clinched in the climatic scene, Creed growled in Rocky's ear, "Ain't gonna be no rematch."  And the gallant, albeit defeated, challenger replied, "Don't want one."

Maybe Obama had in mind "Rocky II," in which Sylvester Stallone's character triumphs over Creed.  Still, why confuse us (easy as it is to do)?

-- Don Frederick

Big union comes to Clinton's rescue

Talk about good timing!

One of the nation's most influential unions -- the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees -- came through today with its expected endorsement of Hillary Clinton, easing the pain her camp may be feeling over the first seriously negative debate reviews she has encountered (conveniently aggregated by Time magazine's The Page blog here).

As this item in the New York Times' Caucus blog notes, the union's backing could prove particularly valuable in Iowa, where it has about 300,000 members (typo alert: make that 30,000) and where polls show that the Democratic presidential race remains competitive.

The union may be especially motivated to show its clout in Iowa, where it was embarrassed in the 2004 campaign after its chosen candidate, Howard Dean, went from front-runner to also-ran in a flash after finishing third in the state caucuses.

-- Don Frederick

Clinton stumbles a bit in Democratic debate

A heavyweight bout that goes the distance isn't necessarily determined by the early rounds, as tonight's debate among the Democratic presidential aspirants vividly illustrated.

Hillary Clinton was unfazed by initial attempts to knock her off stride.  But as the forum proceeded, some points actually may have been scored against her. Not enough to seriously jeopardize her front-runner's standing in her party's contest.  But enough to keep this race interesting.

Clinton easily parried the opening efforts by Barack Obama and John Edwards to rattle her by pressing their arguments that, on the key issues of Iraq and Iran, she is not the candidate who can be counted on to dramatically redirect the Bush administration's policies.  She was aided when Obama stumbled in responding to what obviously was going to be the gathering's first question: specifying, as part of his recent pledge to more aggressively challenge Clinton, the issues on which they differ.

"Well, first of all, I think some of this stuff gets over-hyped," he said -- hardly the punch the political world had awaited.  And the rest of his answer lacked precision and focus.

Edwards did better out of the gate, offering solid examples to buttress his case that Clinton is an unlikely agent of change.

Clinton basically ignored the slings and arrows, coolly and calmly touting her record and promoting various plans she laid out.  She also studiously avoided attacking Obama or Edwards, which would have given them ...

Ron Paul tucks America into bed tonight

Rep. Ron Paul had 10 of his 15 minutes of fame this afternoon during the taping in Burbank of "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno," now a regular stop for political candidates. And he got several rounds of applause. They will echo out of television sets across the country's time zones all this evening as Americans climb into bed.

Jay was a gentle questioner, leading the 72-year-old libertarian through his resume -- 10 terms in Congress, Air Force veteran, ob-gyn who delivered 4,000 babies. "Just NBA players?" asked the host.

"How'd you get into the the sleazy business of politics?" asked Leno. Paul said he became fascinated by economics and realized, "We're on the wrong road and you can't print money out of thin air." (Applause.)

Paul said yes, he was in favor of abolishing the Internal Revenue Service because the country had gotten along fine until the income tax started in 1913 because "we didn't have an empire to worry about." (Applause)

He said: "It was a mistake to go into Iraq." (Applause) He said: "We should follow the Constitution."

He said American troops are unhappy, disenchanted and the country is not safer but is more vulnerable. He said he was not an isolationist, that he supported "the Founders' admonition of peace and commerce with all but entanglements and alliances with none." (Applause)

He said his support was growing "by leaps and bounds" because "the message of liberty is powerful." And that he was a lifelong Republican except for a break to run for president as a Libertarian in 1988.

Then, he added, "There probably is a risk I could win." (Laughter)

He said he probably would not accept an offer of the vice presidential slot, that none of the Republican candidates would support it. But "I'd certainly consider it."

"Good luck to you, sir." (Applause)

--Andrew Malcolm

Oops, Gov. Richardson got his governors wrong

Understandable perhaps that New Mexico's Gov. Bill Richardson should feel that governors, as the chief executives of states, are uniquely qualified to become chief executive of the United States. He's the lone governor running on the Democratic side full of candidates with legislative experience.

And during this evening's Democratic debate from Philadelphia he wanted to make the point that Americans favor chief executives, not legislators, as presidents. That's been true in recent history. Only two sitting senators have been elected president.

Richardson said, "The reality on the electability issue is, the last senator that was elected president was 40 years ago. His name was John F. Kennedy. We elect governors as president. Seven of the last eight have been either governors or ex-governors."

Well, actually not. Kennedy was elected 47 years ago and it's four of the last five presidents who have been governors -- George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter, but not George H.W. Bush.

The three presidents before that were all legislators -- Rep. Gerald Ford, former Sen. Richard Nixon and former Sen. Lyndon B. Johnson. Dwight Eisenhower was a general, a kind of chief executive. And Harry Truman was a former senator who inherited the presidency when Franklin Roosevelt died and then won election on his own in 1948.

On the Republican side this time, there are two former governors running, a former mayor and five legislators or former lawmakers.

--Andrew Malcolm

Biden scores with debate zinger

Even if Joe Biden fails to overcome the long, long odds he faces in his bid for the presidency, his legacy may live on with the crack he delivered about Rudy Giuliani at tonight's debate among the Democratic White House contenders.

Asked about his experience compared to Hillary Clinton's, Biden short-circuited the effort by MSNBC's two questioners, Brian Williams and Tim Russert, to make the debate's first hour-plus all about her.

"I'm not running against Hillary Clinton," he began. "I'm running to lead the free world.  I'm running to lead this country."

That, in itself, was a refreshing change of pace from what had been the relentless focus on Clinton. Then Biden turned his sights on Giuliani -- a shift probably welcomed by Democrats who had been watching the bickering among their candidates.

First, he termed Giuliani "probably the most under-qualified man since George Bush to seek the presidency." That garnered some laughter and applause, but Biden was merely setting up the sound bite of the night.

"Rudy Giuliani," he went on. "I mean, think about it.  Rudy Giuliani. There's -- there's only three things he mentions in a sentence:  a noun and a verb and 9/11."

That sparked a huge response from an otherwise restrained audience. And if Giuliani emerges as the GOP nominee, it's likely to be a line Democrats reprise among themselves again and again.

-- Don Frederick 

                                                                                                 

Thompson gets key California nod, but not the Big One

The Freddy-come-lately of the Republican presidential field went to Sacramento today to announce that he'd wrapped up the official endorsement of an important California Republican -- Tom McClintock.

Now, with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger riding high in the polls and less than a year after he romped to an easy election victory, some political observers might assume that his endorsement would be the valuable reason for Fred Thompson to fly cross-country to shake hands and pose together for pictures before a gathering of reporters including The Times' Dan Morain.

Did former Sen. Thompson ask the governor for his official nod? “No,” said Thompson before quickly moving on to the next question.

But Thompson beamed as he announced he had received the official blessing of a Republican who has lost four statewide races, most recently one for lieutenant governor in 2006. McClintock has not fared well when Democrats have a chance to vote on his fate.

On the other hand, the Thousand Oaks legislator has never lost a Republican primary. And that’s what the current GOP presidential race is about and why Thompson is trumpeting McClintock’s endorsement.
Yes, McClintock is obscure to a national audience. But don't forget, California’s trove of Republican convention delegates will be elected by congressional district. So, McClintock’s endorsement was eagerly sought.

Noting that McClintock is the second best-known Republican officeholder in California, Republican consultant Wayne C. Johnson said: “It is a great endorsement” because McClintock’s career has not been besmirched by “compromise.”

“A phone call from Tom McClintock is a good credentialer,” added Johnson, who used to do work for McClintock. “That is the chief role. He is a credible messenger.”

Thompson also announced that McClintock would be his state chairman. “Tom has always had courage,” he added. Three state senators including Jim Battin (R-La Quinta) and eight assemblymen also endorsed Thompson.

Likening Thompson to Ronald Reagan, McClintock said the former senator represents the “bold colors” of the Republican Party, not “pastels.” He added: “We can’t afford to get this election wrong.”

Of course, California Republicans being California Republicans, other party members disparaged McClintock's choice. "It is the most overrated endorsement in California," said a Schwarzenegger partisan, who is so sure of himself he sought anonymity.

--Andrew Malcolm

Giuliani nabs key Bush advisor as his advisor now

Nevermind their basic disagreement over gun control, Republican national front-runner Rudy Giuliani picked up a significant -- and very useful -- endorsement today from Joe Allbaugh.

Not everybody knows Joe, which is fine with that hulking 6-4 Oklahoman who looks like a pro defensive end. If you're smart, you won't mention his crew cut, which went out of style about four decades ago but if it doesn't matter to him, who are you to notice?

Allbaugh is a no-nonsense political veteran who was Gov. George W. Bush's chief staff in the Texas statehouse and then became part of the Iron Triangle -- Allbaugh as campaign manager, Karen Hughes as communications director and Karl Rove as political chief. They drove that 1999-2000 campaign through a stinging 19-point defeat in New Hampshire to John McCain on to the nomination, a tumultuous general election campaign, the Florida turmoil and ultimate victory and the White House.

Allbaugh was a demanding fellow, a stickler for saving campaign money (he required that fax cover sheets be printed on both sides to enable two uses and save paper) and a center of profound professional calm during the storms and crises that inevitably grip operations as long, as expensive and as large as a national presidential effort that depends so much on eager but inexperienced young people.

After the victory, Allbaugh was named head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, where he met Giuliani during the 9/11 crisis. He ran that agency until March 2003, exiting before the Katrina disaster and the successful assault on FEMA for not being an adequate first-responder.

Recently, Allbaugh has been running his own consulting company in Washington and serves on the board of directors of the National Rifle Assn., which, it is safe to say, gun-control advocate Giuliani does not. They both had the usual yada-yada good things to say about each other today.

Allbaugh, who will serve as a senior advisor, "has significant experience in emergency management and I will look to him for sound advice and expertise," said Giuliani, who sometimes doesn't listen too closely to advice from others. Chances are, Allbaugh will have his ear.

(UPDATE: Just as one-third of the Iron Triangle rejoins the federal political fray, the very next day another third--Karen Hughes--resigns as undersecretary of state to return to Texas, her job as an advocate for public and personal diplomacy largely unfulfilled.)

--Andrew Malcolm