New California poll finds Rudy's support falls 10 points

A new Field Poll out today finds that Rudy Giuliani has lost a sizable chunk of his lead over other Republicans in the race for California's primary voters, while so-called second-tier candidates like Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo show an increased combined strength.

In the poll of 1,201 registered voters, 432 of them registered Republicans, Giuliani reaps 25%, down from 35% in August.  Mitt Romney is still second with 13%, down from 14%.  John McCain has jumped from 9% two months ago to 12% today, tied with newcomer Fred Thompson, who had 13% in August.

Huckabee and Paul both got 4%, up from 1% each.  Tancredo is holding at 3%, while Hunter went from 2% to 3%.  Undecideds also went from 20% to 22%.  Combined, the second-tier wannabes now collect 14%, twice their August support, showing how unsettled the GOP field remains as the winter primary season and California's Feb. 5 election date fast approaches.

Giuliani and McCain do noticeably better in Northern California.  Women prefer Giuliani 27% compared to 23% for men.  Voters 50 and over also seem to prefer Giuliani.

Interestingly, among self-identified strong conservatives, Giuliani leads Romney narrowly, 24% to 20%. Among moderates and liberals, the gap for Giuliani is 26% to 7% for Romney.

A new poll in New Hampshire, meanwhile, shows Romney up by 10 percentage points over Giuliani, 32% to 22%. That's an uptick for Romney, compared to other recent surveys in the state.

McCain runs third in the new poll, at 15%, followed by Paul (7%), Huckabee (6%) and Thompson (5%).

The outlook is better for Giuliani in a new poll in Florida -- the state his campaign views as a "firewall" protecting him from harsh political consequences if he should lose the opening contests in Iowa and/or New Hampshire.

The new survey shows Giuliani, at 30%, easily leading the GOP pack. McCain and Thompson are tied for second, with 14%, while Romney run fourth (12%).

-- Andrew Malcolm

Comments

[Ralph Zavala]

It is more and more obvious that the polls are very questionable and subject to manipulation. And really what does the average American care what other people think. Aren't we supposed to vote for what we believe is right. Heck I don't think that Chuck Norris swayed my vote to Huck. Also that graph used during the CNN debate that gauges peoples reaction to people as the debate unfolds is so ridiculous to me. The process ought not be a popularity contest.

[Yasser F. Sanchez]

Rudy is on the ropes and the most solid and clear path for the Republican nomination is Mitt Romney's. He needs to survive IOWA and do well in NH, Michigan and Florida. The rest will all follow.

He is a proven leader and will bring the change that America needs.

[Shawn Troxel]

All, This article shows up as only 7 hour old on google but it is actually from back in October that these polls were done. Not sure what the problem is.

Reference the "Field" poll date here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_republican_primary-258.html

[FairMark]

Learn about Huck's red-hot FairTax plan at FAIRTAX.ORG !!!

[Dale Gililand]

Fred Thompson is going to rise to the top of the heap. His record is the cleanest and most consistently conservative. His laid back style appeals to alot of people not included in these polls. I think the results of the early primaries are going to be a shock to those that counted him out just because he refuses to let the media or polls dictate how he runs his campaign.