Clinton has room to give

The problem with polls at this stage of a campaign is that the election is still so far away most people haven't been paying much attention. You get the call from the pollster and decide you'll humor the poor guy and answer his questions, even though you've been more interested in the baseball playoff picture and the start of the school year, so you just say, 'Yeah, sure, that one -- Hillary Clinton? Yeah, her," as you think to yourself, "Y'know, my dinner's getting cold, let's wrap this up."

So the better-known a candidate is, the better the candidate fares in these early polls. Still, people like us watch the polls to see if anyone's getting much motion. Fred Thompson goes up. Bill Richardson sees a few more points here and there. John McCain bounces up and down. We duly note it all.

But Roger Simon points out over at Politico.com that all this poll-watching misses the forest for the trees. And the forest at this point is that Clinton has maintained a substantial lead over her rivals for months now, raising the question: Can anyone stop her? Polls tracked at RealClearPolitics.com show...

"Hillary ahead of Obama by an average of 19.6 percentage points in February. Today, it shows her ahead of Obama by an average of 19.4 percentage points. That’s not much slippage after seven months of campaigning. And Hillary’s average lead over John Edwards started out at 25.8 percentage points in February and is at an average of 28 percentage points today.

It will be extremely difficult for Hillary to maintain such a huge lead all the way to the beginning of the primary season — polls almost always narrow — but she has a lot of ground she can give away and still be a prohibitive front-runner."

And she's doing well in the three main early primary states as well, Simon says. So the question: Who can stop her, and how? Post away in the comments section below, but please be specific; none of this "my candidate can do it because he/she is way cooler" stuff. What specifically will it take for one of the other contenders to overtake Clinton? How does a candidate move ahead on the inside rail in this particular horse race?

-- Scott Martelle

Comments

[Al]

She is unstoppable. Obama is all talk but no substance. To say that he opposed the war from the start is not enough to derail the Clinton well oiled machine.

Senator Clinton has waited her turn to run for the White House, and she has done her home work too and its paying off. She is the strongest of all the candidate, followed by Joe Biden, Bill Richardson, John Edwards and Barack Obama.

Edwards will apologize over and over again for his vote on the war but its not helping him.

In the four months remaining I see Obama and Edwards going negative to try to cut into Clintons lead, but she is unstoppable.

It will take the calibre of a woman like Clinton to clean 8 years of Bush mess .

[Vinny]

With all things being equal, I really feel that to have any chance to take down any front runner/incumbent, that person needs to shoot themselves in the foot before any challenger can overtake him/her in the polls. We saw it in George Allen, (Sidetrack: I really feel like George Allen would be a major candidate, if not front-runner, in the GOP presidential race if he didn't open his big mouth.) and Gary Hart, front-runners fell flat on their faces due to their own undoings. Sometimes, it takes a dramatic scene (Reagan's 1980 "I paid for this microphone!") or bloody fight at the top (Dean vs Gephardt negative ads let Kerry and Edwards move up). But in mosty cases, the opportunity is never created by the underdog, it's always created by the front-runner. It's almost always never in the underdog's hands.

I guess if I was to formulate a strategy to take down Clinton, I would use the Norman Hsu incident as a golden opportunity to attack her as a under the table operator who is part of the old system in Washington (which Obama/Edwards have already been harping on) and then pound on how they are the candidate to bring change, ad naseum. This fits into the pattern of front-runner shooting themselves in the foot and creating an opportunity for others to take advantage. Now, if the media picks up on this fundraising scandal and let it snowball on itself, that's would be the rub. That's really the biggest opening on Clinton's armor right now, not the pre-war vote or the Hillarycare.

[vwcat]

Gee, Wasn't Howard Dean the inevitable and unstoppable candidate at this time in 03? Thought so.
The press tells us not to pay attention to polls and then they obsess. They forget their own advice. it's 4 months and most voters have not made up their minds. Also, many are wont to change their minds many times before it's over.
and, democrats are infamous for eating their frontrunners.
Besides, knowing the Clinton's history, there is still many scandals to unfold before Feb. 2008. so many skeletons and so little places to stuff them all.
That little matter of Hsu is not finished yet.
I am betting that many democrats who right now have glitter in their eyes about the 90s while drinking Clinton koolaid will eventually rub the fairy dust out and start to remember why they were so damn glad when the Clintons and thier soap operas and dramas left the White House. they will remember the way they threw the party under the bus, NAFTA, DOMA., Welfare reform without the help or education or money to help them transition. No. I don't think this is over by half.
I also keep remembering a democratic primary race for senator. Through almost the whole race this one guy, like clinton, was well funded, connected and inevitable and lead through most of the race. Suddenly, some court papers came to light where it was found the guy hit his ex-wife. this was two or three weeks before the primaries.
The second place candidate won by historic margins in whilte collar counties, the farmer vote and in the southern part of the state where it's like the deep south. He went on to give the keynote speech at the 04 Democratic Convention. Maybe you heard of him. Barack Obama.

[dem dem]

poor poor vwcat - he is really upset that Hillary is gonna be the dem nominee...poor poor vw cat...

Like many of these sad Hillary haters - they now yell - hey look at Dean in 04....poor poor vw cat - doesnt even remember that Howard Dean wasnt married to the most popular living democrat (who also happened to be an ex President themself)....poor poor vwcat doesnt remember that Howard dean wasnt the most "admired woman in the world" in 25 years of straight polling...poor poor vwcat doesnt remember that Howard Dean didnt have the smartest political strategist as his mate and the best political team in modern times (Dean - like Jerry Brown in 92 - had TRIPPI! HA!)

Poor poor vw cat...well Im sure he'll enjoy using Vinny's advice and slandering the Clintons all the way thru the primary season...and then when THEY win...he can just go vote for Nader again if he doesnt like it..poor poor vw cat

[Diane]

The other candidates and the media need to force Mrs Clinton 'off-script'. She is the world's worst public speaker, especially when she has to ad-lib (she uses more um's and you-know's than any teenager I've ever met).

This is why Mrs Clinton avoids the press like the plague and usually has 'spokespeople' comment for her. It's like the Wizard of Oz - if you see her unscripted, you realise what little talent and charisma she actually has, and you wonder who the person behind the curtain really is who is writing all of her policy and speeches. It's incredibly un-Presidential.

[Paul Servelle]

If the essence of the GQ spike of Hillary article is correct, why shouldn't we suspect the "tilt/spin" of MSM on poll results. Take 3rd qtr report; has anyone compared the type of contributor;lobbyist, vs. individual. Just before the end of the qtr at a fund-raiser in DC for Hillary is was reported that it was a mass marriage: all the special interest folks over here, all bundlers over there. Now, let the dosey doe begin. Or, a story asserts how Norman Hsu was a house guest of HRC and he is under-arrest and the impression that Hsu & HRC are virtual strangers. Finally, I am a 1,000+ hour volunteer for Obama in a red congressional district in CA. With the sole exception of female activists at Democratic clubs, I encounter no one who thinks well of her; and almost universal would not vote for her in any circomstances. And, compare number of field workers in the early primaries; what percentage are volunteers as compared to paid field staff.

[MeThinks]

The first comment refers to Obama as having no substance.

I beg to differ.

Obama is a person of real substance...substance abuse, that is.

;-)

[Alcides]

Bill Richardson has a great resume and little public exposure compared to the two and a half front-runners. I think it will take some public attention to his past experience and productivity to get more folks to take him seriously. I talk to people and they don't even know who he is. They know Clinton, Obama, and a little Edwards and most of the people I ask don't like them. They would probably throw their vote away to a coin toss.

I think if Bill Richardson could get some prime time coverage of an interview, he would blow up. Most importantly, I think he should stick to the "no killing friendlies (democratic candidates)" philosophy he proposed by not bringing up too much how the candidates are not well-mannered. Just stick to the facts of his own successes and current diplomatic relationships and bring them to the attention of every last loser in America and stay firm and honest.

[Julie]

Hilary Clinton is a big fake and a liar and she cries all the time to big daddy Bill to save and help her. How will she run this great nation if she cannot even manage her campaign?

Barack Obama is the real deal and will improve the reputation of the United State both home and abroad.

[N/A]

I agree w/"Vinny"...I miss GFA -- He'd be the most viable candidate right now if he hadn't succumbed to "rhetorical clumsiness" last year (FOXNews.com). I still hope he makes an invigorating return to the Commonwealth of once honorable Virginia -- the surge of liberal politics within the last couple of years has ushered in a high degree of disrespect for those who have experienced more than the adolescent to middle-aged sectors (e.g. Nancy Reagan, who was snubbed by Sen. Webb last year after Mrs. Reagan asked his campaign to have an ad, featuring our late and great President, taken off the air.)