Latest from the Newt watch

Because 17 presidential candidates obviously aren't enough--besides being an unlucky odd number--and because American presidential campaigns still don't spend as much money as many nations' entire budgets, Newt Gingrich has inserted himself again as a potential, possible, slightly more likely Republican candidate.

But not yet, of course.

To get the buzz going again--it's been--what?--a whole week since the last interview--the former speaker granted a sit-down to the Washington Times' Ralph Z. Hallow (no relation to our Mark Z. Barabak). Hallow reveals in the article that Newt "is moving closer" to a candidacy.

"I will decide based on whether I have about $30 million in committed campaign contributions and whether I think it is possible to run a campaign based on ideas rather than 30-second sound bites," Gingrich said. Good luck with that.

Let's be honest. Sound bites are how you reach millions of people via TV. Campaign staffs carefully craft and polish these phrases and insert several such short, sharp, focus-group-tested quotes near the beginning of every speech, because not every local TV crew stays for the whole talk. Also in the Newt's equation is how well the rest of the GOP field is faring by, say, mid-October.

This week's Times/Bloomberg poll in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina showed that no Republican had solidified the kind of broad front-runner status as Hillary Clinton. The figures also show more volatility in the GOP race, with 72% in Iowa, 50% in New Hampshire and 64% in South Carolina saying they still might change their minds on a candidate.

Those are very tempting numbers for a big-league politician. But first Gingrich will watch how Fred Thompson does in the next few weeks. Meanwhile, the Georgian will continue his speeches, his online seminars, his interviews and his behind-the-scenes fundraising pulse-taking.

Although Gingrich has not done as well as Thompson did in the polls by not running, he does have a faithful following, solidly conservative credentials and a grasp of history and basket of ideas that can make his speeches compelling listening. How many ways the party's conservative wing can be sliced up among Thompson, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback and possibly Gingrich without handing a plurality to Rudy Giuliani may turn out to be the real question come next winter's caucuses and primaries.

You can, by the way, express your own opinion on Newt's possible, likely, maybe, who-cares candidacy by going here to vote and seeing the totals so far.

--Andrew Malcolm

Comments

[danboarder]

Congressman Ron Paul was at USC today speaking to an enthusiastic crowd and has been moving up in the polls, winning straw polls, and drawing support from across the political spectrum. He's the one to watch looking forward.