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Well, here it is, one minute before the midnight deadline for third-quarter fundraising (in the Pacific time zone anyway), and already some numbers are beginning to leak out.
Look for more in the coming hours as both parties' presidential candidates seek to cast their money-gathering in the most favorable light. Without any votes yet, beyond nonbinding straws, counting dollars is the only public way of measuring concrete candidate support.
Bill Richardson's folks obviously thought that late on an early-autumn Sunday was the best for them. They're out first so there's no one with a vastly larger sum to compare his to yet. And his $5.2 million doesn't seem too bad.
It gives him about $18 million raised so far this year, ahead of several candidates but still way behind Barack Obama's $58.5 million in the first six months of 2007, which leads all candidates in both parties.
That $5.2 million could close Richardson's money gap with John Edwards, who said the other day he would accept public financing. A sign of financial weakness, if not desperation, Edwards sought to spin the decision as a challenge to fellow Democrats, most of whom will not want to then have to abide by public financing's spending limits.
Campaigns have until Oct. 15 to officially report their funds, but many will be releasing figures beforehand. Richardson spokesman Tom Reynolds sought to use the sum to vault his boss out of the lower tier of candidates. "We continue to count contributions as they come in throughout the day," he said, "but this figure obviously separates us from the second-tier candidates and makes this a four-person race."
He hopes.
No other candidates--top-tier or lower-rung--released their money figures tonight. The third quarter, which includes summer vacations, is traditionally a time of low political interest and is typically the hardest to raise money in. But if the same 2007 pattern continues, Obama and Hillary Clinton will lead the Democratic pack in fundraising, while Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani will outraise their Republican competitors, with Romney likely writing himself another check.
Perhaps revealingly, the Richardson campaign did not announce its cash-on-hand figure, the actual amount of cash after debts it will have to spend in the final three months leading up to Iowa and New Hampshire.
Obama's camp did choose to announce--and therefore highlight--one figure: that it had surpassed its three-quarter goal of acquiring 350,000 individual donors so far this year. That means at least 100,000 new contributors since June 30, no insubstantial figure but fewer new contributors than he gathered in the second quarter.
The 100,000 new donors is about the same as Obama garnered in the first quarter, when he raised $25.7 million, according to the Associated Press. The Times' Dan Morain will be following the emerging figures closely on these pages. Tonight, he's got a story on Clinton's last fundraiser of the quarter, a day in the Bay area where convicted felon Norman Hsu was to play a prominent role. He couldn't make it, however, because he's now in jail.
--Andrew Malcolm
May we suggest New Hampshire? Or Iowa?
Our colleague Christopher Reynolds weighs in today in the Travel section on his experiences rubbing elbows with the politically famous and near-famous in New Hampshire. The story digs into what it's like to be a political tourist in the caucus and primary hotspots -- where the action will only get heavier between now and mid-January. As Reynolds writes: "In four days of racing around southern New Hampshire in early September with no press pass or campaign connections, I shook the hands of eight presidential candidates -- an orgy of access that in California would have taken weeks and cost a fortune in campaign contributions....
"It's easy to forget, given the way candidates raise money behind closed doors in Southern California, that any American can step into the middle of all this patriotism, pandering, drama, debate, stagecraft and statecraft. But we can, and the show runs in New Hampshire for the next three or four months, depending on the primary election date that the state chooses."
People in both states take pride in the retail politics they attract, and the general sense among the locals is if you haven't met the next president of the United States, then you haven't been trying (unless you're intentionally avoiding them, which could have a certain appeal, too).
So book your trips now. And let us know if you find any frequent-voter programs to sign up for.
-- Scott Martelle
Former President Bill Clinton has been critical of Fox News, but he’s an unabashed fan of Fox’s entertainment offerings.
In yet another appearance today--of his how many dozen recent media appearances has it been ostensibly to promote his new book and global initiative to save the world?--on network rival NBC’s "Meet the Press" Sunday, Clinton spoke at length about the Fox drama series "24."
In the series secret agent Jack Bauer (Kiefer Sutherland, now in some different kind of trouble) of the terror fighting agency CTU routinely extracts information by torture in hopes of defusing bombs that are always set to go off somewhere in America.
Last year, Clinton told "Meet the Press" host Tim Russert that he would authorize torture in a "24"-style situation, where terrorists were captured with a bomb ticking somewhere around the country. Those comments got new life last week when Hillary Clinton publicly disagreed with her husband on the issue; she argued that American policy should not permit torture.
Asked about the subject again by Russert on Sunday, Clinton backed off his previous endorsement of torture--but not his affection for the Bauer character. "It happens every season with Jack Bauer, but ... in the real world it doesn't happen very much," Clinton said. "If you have a policy which legitimizes this, it's a slippery slope and you get in the kind of trouble we've been in here with Abu Ghraib, with Guantanamo, with lots of other examples."
Clinton said he didn’t know what he would do if confronted with the proverbial ticking bomb and terrorist in hand, but suggested -- currying no favor with the intelligence community -- that agents could torture but be prepared to face the consequences for violating the law or Geneva Conventions.
"I think what our policy ought to be is to be uncompromisingly opposed to terror--I mean to torture, and that if you're the Jack Bauer person, you'll do whatever you do and you should be prepared to take the consequences," he said. "And I think the consequences will be imposed based on what turns out to be the truth."
Clinton seemed willing to defer to the torturing Bauers of the world. “If you look at the show, every time they get the president to approve something, the president gets in trouble, the country gets in trouble. And when Bauer goes out there on his own and is prepared to live with the consequences, it always seems to work better."
So, memo to the folks at CTU: this president loves your show - but he doesn’t have your back.
-- Joe Mathews
On NBC's "Meet the Press" this morning, former President Bill Clinton was asked whether the world would view a President Hillary Clinton as the establishment of a Clinton dynasty to follow two Bushes as president. The former president suggested that being fair to his wife was more important than fears of political dynasties in an ostensibly democratic country.
"I think the real question here is not whether she's establishing a dynasty, but ...almost whether we should eliminate her because she happens to be my wife, if she is otherwise the person who would be the best president," Clinton said. "I don't like it whenever anybody gets something they're not entitled to just because of their families."
Clinton claimed that he had long encouraged her to go into politics, and even suggested they not marry because she should pursue her own political career.
"When we were going together in law school, I thought - I literally told her she shouldn't marry me because she was more gifted than me at politics," he recalled. "She was the best person in our generation, and she should go home and do it. And she laughed and said she'd never run for office. She said, 'I'm too hard-headed. Nobody'll ever vote for me. I'll find another way to serve.' That's how our life began."
Not that Clinton was suggesting that there is a Clinton dynasty.
"When we think of dynasties in historical circumstances, it's King Louis I through 25, and you get it because of who your family is, not because of what your merits are. In her case, she clearly has established, after leaving the White House, a totally different career path than I ... did, from operating from a different political base, with a set of expertise areas ... that I didn't bring to the White House, and for a very different time where the security issues are much more important."
-- Joe Mathews
Read more Of presidents and dynasties »
What is it with the kids of political figures that drives them to the keyboard? As  writers, we understand the impulse, of course -- it is by far the most honorable and noble profession available to humankind, after all -- but why do so many political daughters pick up the proverbial pen?
The latest into the fold is Meghan McCain, daughter of Sen. John McCain from Arizona, who is about to join the blogosphere, according to a Women's Wear Daily brief on the announcement party. We weren't able to find an active page for the blog, but you all know about unexpected production delays.  According to McCain, the idea is to create something of a Hunter S. Thompson "Fear and Loathing" approach to politics, which could be interesting given the conservative outlook of her father, and the even more conservative outlooks of the Republican voters he's soliciting these days.
Thompson, of course, was an American iconoclast, as erratic in his writing as he was in his drug intake. But he also inspired a generation of journalists with his sharp eye and even sharper pen (he once described Hubert Humphrey  as "a treacherous, gutless old ward-healer who should be put in a ... bottle and sent off on the Japanese current." Now that's political poetry.). As to his thoughts on former President Richard M. Nixon, well, you'll just have to use your imagination.
McCain, although her writing will be blog-only (for the time being, anyway), joins the ranks of First Daughter Jenna Bush, Al Gore's daughters Kristin Gore and Karenna Gore Schiff, and Mary Cheney. Of course, Margaret Truman, who apparently writes better than she sings, beat them all to the punch.
If we missed any -- smart money would say we did -- feel free to add them in the Comments section.
-- Scott Martelle
... which in blog time may as well be two years, but this is still worth noting. The folks at MTV and MySpace held their first in a planned series of interviews with the presidential contenders on Thursday, and incorporated online instant feedback. Joshua Levy over at techPresident liked what he saw, and on tech and Web 2.0 matters that's a hard crew to please.
We missed the live event, which used Flektor to tabulate real-time votes by viewers on how they thought John Edwards was doing. It will be interesting to see how audiences react to the different candidates once they've all participated -- kind of an overview of who was answering the questions, and who was ducking. Overall, only 1% thought Edwards ducked the questions, setting a benchmark for those to come.
And near as we can tell, no one asked the underwear question -- boxers or briefs? -- which can only be good for democracy.
-- Scott Martelle
Sometimes, it doesn't hurt to think small, especially when your immediate goal is simply to keep from getting swallowed by bigger fish.
Chris Dodd is one of several presidential candidates --- in both parties --- who isn't going to report a king's ransom in contributions after the latest fundraising period ends Sunday. But as he did through the year's first six months, when he raised more than $7 million, he needs enough to carry on. Enough to pay the basic bills and keep his long-shot scenario alive (the hope that just before the voting starts, his party will realize what a gem he's been all along).
Joining others making their final pushes for dough, Dodd sent out a short e-mail to supporters late this week asking for ... $23.
Every little bit helps, after all. And not asking for the moon could maximize his return.
We wondered, though, why $23? Could it be that the figure represents precisely 1% of the $2,300 cap on donations to a single candidate in the primary season?
For Dodd, that definitely would be logical. In virtually every national poll of Democratic-leaning voters, from the campaign's start to now, Dodd has had a lock on 1% support.
That's also what he scored in the recent LA Times/Bloomberg surveys that zeroed in on Iowa and South Carolina (in New Hampshire, he didn't quite meet that threshold --- perhaps many of those $23 checks are destined for use in the Granite State).
-- Don Frederick
Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker whose political striptease over running for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination went through even more layers of clothing than Fred Thompson, sent out a spokesman today to say that the Georgian had decided not to make the effort this time.
Barely 72 hours ago the 64-year-old Gingrich had announced that a close advisor would depart Monday on a three-week nationwide trek to gauge possible financial commitments and that if he could round up $30 million worth, Gingrich didn't see how he could resist such popular pressure to run.
Today, the spokesman, Rick Tyler, said Gingrich had just discovered that he could not legally explore a political opportunity like running for president while remaining head of American Solutions, his tax-exempt political organization. So he was giving up the presidential idea. "Newt is not running," Tyler said.
A master at manipulating the media, even before helping to invent the "Contract With America" that in 1994 won Congress back for the GOP after decades of minority status, Gingrich is an erudite and eloquent speaker who retains a loyal Republican following despite his resignation after Republican election losses in 1998.
A presidential confrontation next year between Gingrich and Hillary Clinton, who so often denounced his right-wing conspiracy, would have been one of the most entertaining in decades. And the debates would have surely outdrawn reruns of "The Simpsons."
The decision's implications for the other Republican candidates seem minimal, except possibly the freeing up of some Gingrich donors awaiting his decision. You can bet that the Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson folks are calling them this afternoon.
In public, such as during the Bill Clinton-Monica Lewinsky affair, Gingrich can be one of the most pointedly partisan speakers imaginable. His biting remarks leave scars not easily forgotten, and he'd never make any Democratic Lincoln Bedroom list. Yet out of office, he can also publicly debate prominent Democrats like Mario Cuomo and produce a fascinating evening of bipartisan political dialogue rich in enlightening history.
In person Gingrich's attention to and involvement with those around him is intense, like a college professor engaging students in the hall after a lecture. Win-or-lose, his ...
Read more BREAKING NEWS: The Newt Watch -- now he says no »
Republican presidential contender Rudy Giuliani tried this morning to neutralize one potential problem spot for himself if he wins the Republican nomination and faces off against Democratic New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in November '08 -- gender.
Giuliani was in Palm Springs for a fundraiser and to speak to the biannual conference of the National Federation of Republican Women, where he argued before the 1,600 2,000* convention goers that the party needed to compete in all 50 states, not just the tried-and-true "red" states that sent George W. Bush to the White House twice.
"I think we can compete for every single man's vote, every single woman's vote. I don't care who the candidate is on the other side," Giuliani said. "The American people decide who they want as president based on who they think the right person is for the country, not whether somebody is a man or a woman or of a different race or gender or ethnic background or whatever."
He didn't mention by name the obvious allusions -- Clinton, who could become the first woman president; Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, who could become the first president with clear African roots; or New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who could become the first Latino president. Nor did Giuliani cite polls showing that Republicans see him as the most electable GOP candidate.
But for the most part, Giuliani stuck to what has become his basic theme of late: bashing Clinton as though the two front-runners were already squaring off, invoking Ronald Reagan's name at every turn and arguing that the only way to end the war in Iraq is with "victory for the United States of America" -- the last leading to a prolonged standing ovation from the predominantly conservative crowd.
But the best thing Giuliani may have delivered for himself is goodwill. He was the only Republican candidate to address the group, which delegate Cathy Philips of Lakeland, Fla., described as comprising the party's "worker bees." (A full story on Giuliani and this key Republican constituency is available here on this website and in Sunday's print editions.)
Remember, Giuliani is on his third wife and his kids barely talk to him -- not the kind of family background that usually resonates with activist Republican women. But he seems to have overcome some of that, judging by a fresh Gallup poll, which shows him drawing slightly better among Republican women than among Republican men.
Who has the gender gap now? Fred Thompson -- whose much-younger wife, Jeri, has drawn some criticism for the kinds of outfits not seen on the floor of the Palm Springs Convention center today. "Mature women like me look at that and think, 'That could be my husband, run off with some pretty young thing,' " said Mona Blocker Garcia, a delegate from Marfa, Texas. Her candidate? Giuliani.
-- Scott Martelle
* Convention organizers updated their attendance estimate after this item was initially posted.
A close friend and major fundraiser of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has identified himself as the mystery financer of the proposed California initiative to apportion the state's 55 electoral votes by congressional district instead of winner-take-all.
He is New York hedge fund billionaire Paul Singer. He said he provided the $175,000 to initially finance the petition drive to get the measure on the June 2008 ballot. But as The Times' Dan Morain revealed in an exclusive story on this website last night, the drive has foundered on internal disputes and lack of further financing.
The petition drive's backers had remained a mystery since the effort was first revealed here in a July Top of the Ticket item. Democratic critics portrayed it as a power grab to wrest away some of the state's electoral votes, which have all gone to the Democratic candidates for the past four presidential elections. Some 19 of the state's 53 congressional districts would seem likely to vote for a GOP presidential candidate, enough to swing some recent national elections.
A Giuliani campaign spokeswoman, Maria Comella, said today that Singer's donation "was completely independent from our campaign."
Singer oversees Elliott Associates, an $8 billion investment fund. He is also chairman of Giuliani's northeast fundraising operation that produced a third of the New Yorker's $33.5 million campaign war chest in the first six months of 2007. Singer and his employees have donated at least $182,000 to the Giuliani campaign so far this year.
"I made the contribution without any restrictions," Singer's statement said. Some Democrats have threatened legal action, complaining that federal campaign finance laws were violated if the Giuliani campaign was involved.
Tonight, Howard Dean, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, issued a statement demanding to know "the truth about Rudy's involvement in and knowledge about this shameful effort to disenfranchise voters."
Morain's complete latest report is available here and in Saturday's print editions.
--Andrew Malcolm
It seems only fair, since President Bush recently offered an opinion about the strength of the leading candidate in the Democratic race to succeed him, that the candidate's husband, Bill Clinton, offer some thoughts on the Republican contest.
Al Hunt of Political Capital offers him just that chance tonight on Bloomberg Television. No talk about his new book. Clinton promptly presents a rambling critical assessment of Fred Thompson's campaign launch and how Thompson has "a great manner and that macho stuff you know they love, and was vague enough so that you could read whatever you wanted to in him and maybe he could sop up some of the moderate vote; that's what they had with President Reagan in 1980, that's what they had with President Bush in 2000 -- that brilliant, compassionate conservative slogan."
He sees Mitt Romney as strong in Iowa and New Hampshire but strangely weak in national polls. "I also think Giuliani so far has proved more durable than I thought he would," Clinton says. The wild card, he adds, is former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, another native of Hope, who, Clinton says, is the Republicans' best speaker.
The real question though, he opines, "is can Romney maintain his lead in Iowa, New Hampshire until New Year's Day. If he does, but he doesn't move to second in the national polls, then the whole thing is going to be determined, in my opinion, by whether Iowa and New Hampshire voters stick with him from New Year's Day through voting."
On Sen. John McCain: "I've never seen a man more abused by his support staff than McCain was; they wasted too much money and it's scandalous because he deserves to be a major candidate in this race. He's an admirable human being."
Hunt asks if there's a parallel between Clinton's youth and inexperience running in 1992 and Barack Obama's youth and inexperience in this election cycle. Clinton disagrees, citing his years of executive experience as a senior governor and head of numerous organizations.
"I think," Clinton replies, "in terms of the experience relevant to that moment, I had more experience than anybody else running that year, including President Bush on the experience relevant to the American people then, which was how are we going to solve our domestic problems and get the country moving again."
This is a familiar Clinton pattern. The interview will be broadcast at 8 p.m. Pacific time tonight and 13 other times over the weekend. And if that isn't enough Bill Clinton for you, he's also scheduled to talk about politics and his global bid to save the world on NBC's "Meet the Press" Sunday and ABC's "This Week with George Stephanopoulos," which isn't as good as his wife appearing on all five Sunday talk shows last weekend. But he's a presidential has-been and she's a wannabe.
--Andrew Malcolm
The rent is due Monday. The electric bill on Tuesday. The phone bill on Wednesday, two days before payday. And you think you've got problems.
Well, try running for president and every three months there's a long-lasting, very public judgment made about your political viability according to how much money you have persuaded strangers to hand over. Nevermind your eloquence or creative ideas. You're only as good as your dough pile.
Sunday night is the third-quarter deadline for 2007. Soon after -- maybe before, if some of them have good news they want to leak -- we'll begin seeing actual 90-day totals for each candidate in this the most expensive presidential contest in U.S. history.
Already the maneuvering has started. Yesterday John Edwards announced he would accept public financing of his campaign. This is a dead giveaway that he's not getting enough money on his own, despite all of his fundraising gimmicks. He raised $23 million in the first six months of 2007, but only $9 million in the second quarter.
But Edwards couched the announcement as a challenge to his top competitors -- Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama -- to follow his lead. Unmentioned were the spending limits that come with public financing, which a well-financed candidate would be loath to accept.
"This is not about a money calculation," Edwards said. "This is about taking a stand, a principled stand, and I believe in public financing."
Still, David Bonior, Edwards' national campaign manager, sent out another e-mail appeal for donations, this one seeking contributions of $11, a dime a day from now until the Iowa caucuses. He said $11 buys six yard signs at major intersections and $22 keeps the Davenport field office open half a day.
"You can't buy your way to the Democratic nomination," Bonior said. "You should have to earn the votes of the American people with bold vision and ideas."
Sen. John McCain is running a contest among donors who give before Sept. 30. The campaign will pick three to ride along with McCain on his campaign bus. Fred Thompson sent out a folksy little note that he was out visiting with old friends and making new ones today but wanted to thank some 200,000 supporters for their, well, support and to ask for more via Fred08.com before Sunday night.
Barack Obama dashed off a quick e-mail with the subject line "Hey" just to say he was about to catch a plane, continuing to draw large crowds but "still shy" of his goal of 350,000 donations by Sunday night.
New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson took another tack. He tried to lower expectations for his third-quarter total. "You can't raise much money in July and August," he said between flights to last-minute fundraisers. "Everyone's out for the summer."
He raised $6.3 million the first quarter, $7 million in the second and says he hopes to match the $6.3 million this time. His finance people, if they're any good, already have a pretty good idea how they're going to do by Sunday night. So Richardson is either trying to ease the blow of raising less money this quarter or setting the target low so the political world will be surprised when he exceeds it.
Such is the game of expectations in politics.
--Andrew Malcolm
Before they became the First Family, few things could cause as dark a cloud to come over the faces of George W. and Laura Bush as media questions about their twin daughters, Jenna and Barbara. It was actually then-Gov. Bush's fond dream that the pair would campaign with him the way he had with his father over the years.
But the teenage girls, named for their grandmothers, wanted their privacy and nothing to do with campaigning. Although they were frequently at campaign events, they mingled with friends off to the side and rarely took the stage. The idea of a reporter interviewing one or both of them never got past the first few words.
How much things change, especially when one of them has a new book coming out.
We are suddenly about to learn a lot at least about Jenna, the blond one. She's the younger twin, by one minute. And in the new issue of People magazine and tonight with Diane Sawyer on ABC News' "20/20," the 25-year-old elementary school teacher talks about her new book, "Ana's Story," the true story of a 17-year-old mother living with HIV.
It grew out of her job teaching for UNICEF in four Latin American and Caribbean countries, where Bush documented the lives of children living in extreme poverty, typically with HIV/AIDS and often in abusive households. "This book," the young Bush wrote, "does not have a tidy ending because it is a work of nonfiction based on a life in progress.... This book must end, but Ana's story is still being written, this time by her."
We learn a little in the ABC piece and People about her fiance, Henry Hager, the 29-year-old son of a prominent Virginia Republican family, and how he dragged her up a mountain in Maine in the predawn darkness of Aug. 15 to propose marriage as the sun rose. We learn that her sister Barbara and mother conspired with Hager to size the custom-made reset ring, originally his great-grandmother's.
Asked if it's hard to watch her father so vilified on television, Jenna says the family doesn't watch much television anymore. "He's a different person to me than what they portray him as," she says.
She declines to talk about the Iraq war. Sawyer presses the issue, saying some people like Matt Damon say the Bush daughters should be fighting in Iraq. "I think," says Jenna, "there are many ways to serve your country...I think if people really thought about it, they know that we would put many people in danger. But I understand the point of it. I hope that I serve by being a teacher."
She says her partying days, once the subject of tabloid fodder, are over. "I've grown in the past five years," she says. "I've become really disciplined."
She says she's eagerly anticipating the end of her father's second term. "It will be fun to have some of him back," she says.
-- Andrew Malcolm
Plagued by a lack of money, supporters of a statewide initiative drive to change the way California's 55 electoral votes are apportioned, first revealed here by Top of the Ticket in July, are pulling the plug on that effort.
In an exclusive report to appear on this website late tonight and in Friday's print editions, The Times' Dan Morain reports that the proposal to change the winner-take-all electoral vote allocation to one by congressional district is virtually dead with the resignation of key supporters, internal disputes and a lack of funds.
The reality is hundreds of thousands of signatures must be gathered by the end of November to get the measure on the June 2008 ballot.
Although Maine (since 1972) and Nebraska (since 1996) award electoral votes to the popular vote winner in each congressional district, the California initiative ignited a national controversy with Democratic critics charging it was a power grab by Republicans who are regularly shut out of any California electoral votes by the current winner-take-all system. Democrats have won all the state's 55 electoral votes in the last four presidential elections.
Nineteen of the state's 53 congressional districts are currently held by Republicans, giving them a fair chance of winning those electoral votes in a presidential election. The remaining two electoral votes would still go to the state's overall winner.
The initiative began in July with an air of mystery. Its text and paperwork were filed by a Republican law firm in Sacramento -- Bell, McAndrews & Hiltachk -- but the actual identity of the backers was unknown. Observers noted the initiative would have helped independent candidates because its text specifically provided for third-party or independent candidates to win electoral votes by district.
Supporters said the initiative would increase California's role in presidential politics and better represent the state's diversity.
Opposition was led by Democratic consultant Chris Lehane who received financial backing from donors such as Stephen Bing, like Lehane a Hillary Clinton backer who saw any threat to keeping all of California's electoral votes as unacceptable.
"We want to to make sure this is not the Freddy Krueger of initiatives," Lehane said today, "that comes back to life. We'll continue to monitor it." Morain's full story is available here.
--Andrew Malcolm
Fred Thompson didn't exactly assuage questions about his attention to detail when he seemed out of the loop late last month when his top communications director was let go.
Then, during a trip this month to all-important Florida, he appeared at sea when asked to comment on the Terri Schiavo end-of-life case that had so consumed first the state and then the nation. "That's going back in history," he said. "I don't remember the details of it."
Also in Florida, he was taken aback when asked about the touchy issue of energy exploration in the Everglades. "Gosh, no one has told me that there's any major reserves in the Everglades, but maybe that's one of the things I need to learn while I'm down here," Thompson said.
On Thursday, there came a question about his home state. The result was another Thompson whiff.
Talking with reporters while fundraising in Tennessee, he was asked about a federal court ruling last week that ruled unconstitutional the Volunteer State's lethal injection procedures. Replied Thompson: "I hadn't heard that. I didn't know."
He probably should get some points for not trying to bluster his way through a non-answer. Plus, when he's not on the campaign trail, he's still got his hands full --- at age 65, he's the father of a toddler and an infant, which makes it tough to stay on top of the local news. And, more seriously, none of these recent lapses is especially bothersome, individually.
Collectively, though, they create a context that likely will magnify inevitable missteps by Thompson down the road. And, for a candidate whose late start means he has less time to hone a political persona, that cannot be a welcome prospect
-- Don Frederick
Surrogate campaigners are usually a boon to presidential campaigns because they attract crowds and publicity in places and at times when the candidate is somewhere else. Candidate spouses, mainly wives, are especially popular surrogates because they bring a kind of intimate personal knowledge to the eager crowd, if sometimes a little controversy.
But every once in a while, an overeager surrogate or a political neophyte steps smack into a cow pie. Campaign workers gulp, alert headquarters and move into instant damage control without actually admitting the mistake or criticizing the surrogate, especially if she's the boss's wife.
Such is the case today in the Barack Obama Iowa camp. Late yesterday in Davenport, Michelle Obama was urging campaign workers to, well, work very hard to produce a strong Obama showing in the January caucus.
"Iowa will make the difference," she said. "If Barack doesn't win Iowa, it is just a dream." She said some other stuff about how good it would be to win Iowa. But she'd already stepped in it.
Iowa is about expectations, not necessarily winning. Some nobody can creep into third place and because it was unexpected, be suddenly vaulted into prime time. Typically, the top three candidates emerge from Iowa looking good. John Edwards came out second last time to John Kerry and parlayed that into the vice presidential nomination.
Remember someone named Bill Clinton? He finished second in New Hampshire in 1992 despite all that marital infidelity business and made himself the Comeback Kid because he was expected to do worse. Hard to imagine Avis salesmen chanting, "We're No. 2! We're No. 2!" But in politics, that can work.
Obama could conceivably come out of Iowa, where he's in a tight race with Hillary Clinton and Edwards, even with a strong third-place finish and with his money and crowds carry on to New Hampshire, where new polls indicate two-thirds of independents intend to vote in the Democratic primary. They like fresh faces and blood, given how they fueled John McCain's 19-point stomping of George W. Bush in 2000.
The absolute last thing any candidate wants is to create the impression or expectation that he/she must win or it's all over.
So sleep was no doubt short in the Obama camp last night. Right away today out came Tommy Vietor, a spokesman, to say, "Every campaign has said it's important to do well in Iowa, and that's our goal." And he hastened to add the Obama campaign would continue regardless of the Iowa outcome. But now the subject is out there, and for a few days at least Obama folks can expect questions from local TV crews about having to win Iowa.
Edwards and Clinton spokesmen, not being nincompoops, declined to predict how well they would do or to define "success."
All of that could be expected.
--Andrew Malcolm
It was everywhere to be found today: scorn heaped upon the quartet of leading GOP presidential contenders who stiffed a debate focused on issues of concern to minority communities.
Critics --- who included several fellow Republicans --- vented in news stories in the LA Times, the NY Times, and the Baltimore Sun.
Tavis Smiley, the moderator for tonight's forum at historically black Morgan State University in Maryland, held forth in an op-ed piece in the Philadelphia Inquirer; columnist Scott Maxwell did the same in the Orlando Sentinel.
And the Newark Star-Ledger expressed its chagrin in an editorial (which also took a shot at the Democrats for declining to debate on Fox News Network earlier this year).
So just where were the candidates who went missing from the debate?
Two were a continent away, in California.
Rudy Giuliani began his day in Santa Monica, where he accepted ...
Read more Republicans rapped for their no-shows »
It's becoming a cherished tradition: When the Democratic presidential candidates gather for a debate, the Chris Dodd campaign breaks out the stop watch.
They did so for Wednesday night's talkfest at Dartmouth University, and the speaking-time stats underscored that Hillary Clinton is the dominant figure in the race.
She logged 17 minutes and 37 seconds worth of air time -- roughly four minutes more than the second-place finisher, Barack Obama. Reflecting how Clinton's been extending her lead in various polls (with the exception of that pesky little contest in Iowa), that's a reversal from the figures for some of the earlier debates, when Obama led and she ran second.
One trend remains unshakable: Mike Gravel has a lock on being the least-heard (though he truly tries to make up for that by lashing out at his rivals at virtually every opportunity). A debate transcript is available here.
The New York Times' Caucus blog also was watching the clock, and though its figures vary slightly from the Dodd campaign's, Clinton still was the clear winner.
The Caucus offers another measuring tool -- a word count. And what did we learn from a careful study of these figures? Well, even though Bill Richardson and John Edwards had roughly the same amount of speaking time, the latter crams a lot more verbiage into his responses.
No surprise, given Edwards' past life as a trial lawyer.
-- Don Frederick
Earlier this week, Washington's political elite took notice when Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh --- the very definition of a moderate, heartland Democrat --- endorsed Hillary Clinton's presidential bid. Now, she's scored a coup in Hollywood, earning the support of Rob Reiner, one of the entertainment community's quintessential liberal activists.
As The Times' Tina Daunt reports tonight, the announcement will be made Thursday. And Reiner, in a sequel to Oprah Winfrey's much-publicized fundraiser for Barack Obama at her spread near Santa Barbara, will underscore his commitment by hosting a fundraiser for Clinton at his Brentwood home. The event is planned for Oct. 21 --- the candidate's 60th birthday.
As we noted when Steven Spielberg signed up with the Clinton camp in June, the bigger news would have been if Reiner had strayed from the brand name that long has been a Hollywood favorite. He may have shopped around among the Democratic White House contenders longer than many in the industry. But with Clinton running a nearly flawless campaign so far, there was little reason for one with his political pedigree to take a flier on someone else.
Perhaps not by happenstance, Reiner's endorsement will be made official on the same day that a leading Republican presidential candidate is hoping to make a large endorsement splash in California. ...
Read more BREAKING NEWS: Rob Reiner endorses Hillary Clinton »
The four top Republican presidential candidates are skipping a nationally televised debate Thursday night.
The debate, being held at the historically black Morgan State University in Baltimore and broadcast nationally on PBS, is going ahead as scheduled. And the moderator, African American talk show host Tavis Smiley, is getting his revenge; he'll post podiums on the stage for each of the absent candidates.
"If the candidates come even at the last minute, the stage is set literally and figuratively for them to join the conversation," Smiley told The Times' Peter Wallsten today. "If, however, they choose not to attend, then America will see an empty podium representing the missing candidates."
The four top contenders -- Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, John McCain and Fred Thompson -- have all cited scheduling conflicts in declining the All-American Presidential Forum. All the Democratic candidates turned up for a similar forum recently at Howard University. Republicans Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul and Tom Tancredo will appear.
Skipping debates or forums is not unprecedented. Barack Obama, for example, has said that given the overwhelming number of proposed debates and panels, he will pass on a number of such appearances this fall in order to maintain control of his schedule and campaign message. Obama recently skipped a major AARP forum on senior issues that drew all the other major Democratic candidates to speak before 2,400 seniors and a national TV audience in Davenport, Iowa.
But the GOP absences -- coupled with the postponement of a forum on the Spanish-language network Univision -- have reignited a debate within the Republican party over how to appeal to minorities.
"The bottom line for me," Smiley says, "is that no one black, white or brown, male, female, Republican or Democrat, should be elected president in 2008 if he or she thinks that along the way they can ignore voters of color." Wallsten's complete story is available here and in Thursday's print editions.
--Andrew Malcolm
Only 13% of likely New Hampshire Republican voters have definitely made up their mind, meaning a lot can change by January's primary balloting. But a new poll by CNN/WMUR and the University of New Hampshire finds that Mitt Romney's 14 point lead over Rudy Giuliani in July has evaporated into a dead heat, 25% for the former governor to 24% for the former mayor.
And, watch out, Sen. John McCain, who seriously upset George W. Bush in 2000, now finishes third, up fully 6 points (or 50%) since July to 18% today.
Former Sen. Fred Thompson's favorability rating have jumped from 29% in April to 47% now. But his voter support still stands at 13%, the same as July despite all the publicity surrounding his oft-delayed candidacy announcement earlier this month. Experts suspect Thompson is paying a price for skipping the last GOP debate in New Hampshire and for not doing the kind of door-to-door sidewalk campaigning that Granite State voters expect.
According to the poll data of 324 Republican voters between Sept. 14-17, Ron Paul's support has gone from 3% in June and 2% in July to 4% now; Mike Huckabee has gone from 2% to 3%; Sam Brownback from 0% in July to 2% now; Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter each remain at 1%. The margin of error is +/- 5.4 percentage points.
CNN Polling Director Keating Holland says Romney maintains his lead among GOP conservatives, but his 10 point drop came among moderate and liberal Republicans, who switched to Giuliani. McCain...
Read more New Hampshire's GOP race a real one for now »
Clinton/Gore, together again.
It was a reunion -- however brief -- that must have been heartwarming for most Democrats (and a cause of heartburn for most Republicans).
It happened today in Manhattan, at an annual conference on world problems that Bill Clinton sponsors, now that he's not president anymore (and now that his wife is the family's working politician).
Clinton led the opening panel, and one by one he introduced its heavy-hitter participants: Archbishop Desmond Tutu, World Bank President Robert Zoellick, Aghan President Hamid Karzai, Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, Wal-Mart CEO H. Lee Scott Jr.
Last to take the stage was Al Gore, who with Clinton formed the only Democratic team to occupy the presidency and vice presidency for two full terms since 1941 (a pretty amazing stat, when you think about it).
The symbiotic bond they once seemed to exude (remember the bus blitzkrieg through Middle America after their party's 1992 national convention?) has long since dissipated, frayed by a slew of political and personal recriminations. Still, a hint of a good vibe between them was in evidence....
Read more A political dynamic duo reunites »
Some days Newt Gingrich talks as if he's this close to jumping into the Republican presidential race because the rest of the field is a bunch of pygmies. On other days the former House speaker sounds more hesitant and stresses the need to complete his series of American Solutions seminars this week and then seriously survey the field and judge the financial commitments he might count on.
Take a look at this exchange between Gingrich and Chris Wallace last weekend on Fox News Sunday:
"Next Monday, Randy Evans, who's been my friend and adviser for many, many years, will hold a press briefing. Randy will spend the next three weeks checking with people around the country. If he reports back that, in fact, we think the resources are there for a real race — remember, Governor Romney has been very successful legitimately as a businessman. He can write a $100 million check. I mean, there's no point in getting into a fight with a guy who can drown you unless you at least have enough resources for a vote.
"And so if we have enough resources, then close to that we'll face a very big decision in late October. If there aren't enough resources, I'm not for doing unrealistic things.
WALLACE: But why even go through it unless, if you get the money, you'd run?
GINGRICH: I think the odds are very high, if we ended up with that level of pledges, we'd — I don't see as a citizen how you could turn that down.
WALLACE: So you'd run.
GINGRICH: I think you'd be compelled to.
WALLACE: And?
GINGRICH: I think any citizen — how could you turn to all of your fellow citizens — if they walk ...
Read more The Newt watch: Now he's fundraising »
(UPDATE: Note to Readers Go to www.LATimes.com/topoftheticket
A band of noisy Ron Paul supporters (are there any other kind?) angrily confronted former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani during a 15-minute ferryboat ride last weekend, accusing him of being involved in the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center.
According to a Detroit Free Press account, dozens of Paul supporters leaving a Michigan Republican conference on Mackinac Island encountered Giuliani doing the same and began taunting him with shouts of "9/11 was an inside job" and "Rudy, Rudy, what did you do with the gold?," a reference to legends that millions of dollars in gold were secretly recovered from the collapsed towers.
An eyewitness who's a supporter of Mitt Romney, Ed Wyszynski, said the Paul supporters threatened to throw Giuliani overboard and forced him into the ferry's wheelhouse for the trip's duration. "It was awful," he said. "I was embarrassed to be a Republican."
A Paul campaign spokesman, Jesse Benton, said the campaign had no involvement in the outburst, did not condone harassing Giuliani and did not believe the terrorist attacks were "an inside job." He explained that while the Texas representative had called for a new commission to investigate 9/11, it was because he believed there was more undiscovered government incompetency, not complicity.
A Giuliani spokesman said the mayor was not intimidated by the confrontation, but at least one Ron Paul blog suggested the encounter with 200 Paul supporters was "Rudy Giuliani's worst nightmare" and suggested the mayor should not laugh at another Paul answer in the next GOP debate.
It should be O.K. for the rest of us though.
--Andrew Malcolm
The early debates among the Democratic presidential candidates were dominated by a look back when the topic turned to Iraq. Barack Obama proudly, and frequently, noted that as an Illinois state senator, he opposed the war from the get-go.
Some of his rivals --- who, unlike Obama, had to make votes in Congress that counted on the issue --- ruefully expressed their regret for backing the resolution that authorized the attack. And all waited in vain for Hillary Clinton to apologize for her vote for the measure.
The dialog has progressed since then. As the candidates gather tonight at Dartmouth University for their latest face-off (televised on MSNBC), the verbal dueling can be expected to focus --- as it has of late --- on which Democrat has the best plan and is the best equipped to extricate the U.S. from Iraq.
Clinton continues to frustrate some party activists by avoiding details; her main position is that if President Bush doesn't wind down the war during the rest of his watch, she will upon taking the helm. Expect her to be pressed for more specifics tonight by her opponents, and expect her to give absolutely no ground.
Bill Richardson, as illustrated by a new campaign ad, has been making an especially aggressive bid for support from antiwar bloggers. Expect him to enthusiastically continue that effort tonight. But expect Chris Dodd to pursue a new line of attack he launched this week on Richardson's claim that he would leave "zero" troops in Iraq. And Obama, no doubt, will promote the end-the-war plan he recently outlined.
Even as he does so, however, it remains clear that he still is not ready to completely let the past be forgotten. His campaign has announced that a series of rallies will be held next Tuesday to mark the fifth-year anniversary of the speech he gave, at a demonstration in Chicago, publicly opposing the use-of-force resolution in Iraq that Congress was about to approve. As the Chicago Tribune's Christi Parsons aptly phrased it in a blog item, the date "is a high holy day in the calendar" of Obama's supporters.
Three of the rallies are set for California --- the gatherings in Los Angeles and Sacramento are scheduled for noon (PDT), in San Diego the start time is 5 p.m.
--- Don Frederick
Presidential campaigns have an invisible guerrilla war constantly underway. It involves information, the collecting of it, the cross-referencing, the trading and the use of it to help your candidate or news outlet.
Political reporters get tips almost daily from contacts in one campaign with disparaging information about another. They're offered favorable news about one candidate in advance of competitors in hopes of receiving better play.
Reporters seeking to develop news sources inside campaigns routinely chat with their contacts and exchange information and rumors, some of them true, all of them the commercial currency of such professional relationships. Reporters deemed more sympathetic to a candidate are more likely to gain access or story tips. These info exchanges are especially useful for campaigns trying to head off trouble.
That's how, early this summer, Hillary Clinton's campaign got wind of a story planned for the men's magazine GQ. The subject concerned infighting within the particularly tightly-closed cadre of Clinton confidantes. Such a story in such a publication devoted to men's fashion and grooming would hardly derail her well-oiled candidacy. It would simply show the human foibles of co-workers laboring long days and short nights under intense pressure and would, at most, fuel the political gossip mill for a few days.
All candidates would like to control what's written and said about them. But the Clintonistas, like George W. Bush's Texans led by Karen Hughes, like Control with a capital C. They also, according to a revealing article on Politico.com, did not like the author of the proposed piece, Josh Green, who'd written an Atlantic Monthly story on Sen. Clinton last year that found her to be a calculating non-crusader full of little ideas and more determined to rehabilitate her political image than accomplish any big feats for New York.
Now, coincidental to this development, GQ was negotiating a cover story on former president ...
Read more How the Clintons control their image »
For an East Coast guy, Joe Biden last week showed a laudable awareness of a different part of the country. But a barb he directed at Bill Richardson left us wondering whether he's lost touch with his own roots.
Biden joined Richardson and several other Democratic presidential contenders at a forum in Davenport, Iowa, sponsored by AARP (formerly the American Assn. of Retired Persons). Richardson, the governor of New Mexico, touted his experience in the executive branch of government, as is his wont (it distinguishes him from the plethora of senators -- including Biden -- he's running against). In particular, Richardson extolled his efforts to expand health insurance coverage within his state.
Biden, perhaps tired of hearing Richardson's rap for the umpteenth time, decided to offer his own contrast, this one on governing New Mexico versus the entire country.
"My good friend from New Mexico, God love him," Biden began, using a trademark phrase. "His state's a couple million people. Give me a break. He can pull that together. Pull together 300 million people. That's like saying, you know, 'I played halfback when I was in high school; I can play in the pros' -- a different deal."
Point well taken. But it also sent us to the U.S. Census Bureau for its latest population estimates. New Mexico: 1,954,599 (Biden was on the money). Delaware (his home state): 853,476.
So, using his analogy, it appears Biden's been playing politics in the ankle-biter league.
-- Don Frederick
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