Tick-tock, tick-tock: The campaigns count their 90-day take

Well, here it is, one minute before the midnight deadline for third-quarter fundraising (in the Pacific time zone anyway), and already some numbers are beginning to leak out.

Look for more in the coming hours as both parties' presidential candidates seek to cast their money-gathering in the most favorable light. Without any votes yet, beyond nonbinding straws, counting dollars is the only public way of measuring concrete candidate support.

Bill Richardson's folks obviously thought that late on an early-autumn Sunday was the best for them. They're out first so there's no one with a vastly larger sum to compare his to yet. And his $5.2 million doesn't seem too bad.

It gives him about $18 million raised so far this year, ahead of several candidates but still way behind Barack Obama's $58.5 million in the first six months of 2007, which leads all candidates in both parties.

That $5.2 million could close Richardson's money gap with John Edwards, who said the other day he would accept public financing. A sign of financial weakness, if not desperation, Edwards sought to spin the decision as a challenge to fellow Democrats, most of whom will not want to then have to abide by public financing's spending limits.

Campaigns have until Oct. 15 to officially report their funds, but many will be releasing figures beforehand. Richardson spokesman Tom Reynolds sought to use the sum to vault his boss out of the lower tier of candidates. "We continue to count contributions as they come in throughout the day," he said, "but this figure obviously separates us from the second-tier candidates and makes this a four-person race."

He hopes.

No other candidates--top-tier or lower-rung--released their money figures tonight. The third quarter, which includes summer vacations, is traditionally a time of low political interest and is typically the hardest to raise money in. But if the same 2007 pattern continues, Obama and Hillary Clinton will lead the Democratic pack in fundraising, while Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani will outraise their Republican competitors, with Romney likely writing himself another check.

Perhaps revealingly, the Richardson campaign did not announce its cash-on-hand figure, the actual amount of cash after debts it will have to spend in the final three months leading up to Iowa and New Hampshire.

Obama's camp did choose to announce--and therefore highlight--one figure: that it had surpassed its three-quarter goal of acquiring 350,000 individual donors so far this year. That means at least 100,000 new contributors since June 30, no insubstantial figure but fewer new contributors than he gathered in the second quarter.

The 100,000 new donors is about the same as Obama garnered in the first quarter, when he raised $25.7 million, according to the Associated Press. The Times' Dan Morain will be following the emerging figures closely on these pages. Tonight, he's got a story on Clinton's last fundraiser of the quarter, a day in the Bay area where convicted felon Norman Hsu was to play a prominent role. He couldn't make it, however, because he's now in jail.

--Andrew Malcolm

Looking for that winter vacation destination?

May we suggest New Hampshire? Or Iowa?

Our colleague Christopher Reynolds weighs in today in the Travel section on his experiences rubbing elbows with the politically famous and near-famous in New Hampshire. The story digs into what it's like to be a political tourist in the caucus and primary hotspots -- where the action will only get heavier between now and mid-January. As Reynolds writes:

"In four days of racing around southern New Hampshire in early September with no press pass or campaign connections, I shook the hands of eight presidential candidates -- an orgy of access that in California would have taken weeks and cost a fortune in campaign contributions....

"It's easy to forget, given the way candidates raise money behind closed doors in Southern California, that any American can step into the middle of all this patriotism, pandering, drama, debate, stagecraft and statecraft. But we can, and the show runs in New Hampshire for the next three or four months, depending on the primary election date that the state chooses."

People in both states take pride in the retail politics they attract, and the general sense among the locals is if you haven't met the next president of the United States, then you haven't been trying (unless you're intentionally avoiding them, which could have a certain appeal, too).

So book your trips now. And let us know if you find any frequent-voter programs to sign up for.

-- Scott Martelle 

Bill Clinton and the Jack Bauer exemption

Former President Bill Clinton has been critical of Fox News, but he’s an unabashed fan of Fox’s entertainment offerings.

In yet another appearance today--of his how many dozen recent media appearances has it been ostensibly to promote his new book and global initiative to save the world?--on network rival NBC’s "Meet the Press" Sunday, Clinton spoke at length about the Fox drama series "24."

In the series secret agent Jack Bauer (Kiefer Sutherland, now in some different kind of trouble) of the terror fighting agency CTU routinely extracts information by torture in hopes of defusing bombs that are always set to go off somewhere in America.

Last year, Clinton told "Meet the Press" host Tim Russert that he would authorize torture in a "24"-style situation, where terrorists were captured with a bomb ticking somewhere around the country. Those comments got new life last week when Hillary Clinton publicly disagreed with her husband on the issue; she argued that American policy should not permit torture.

Asked about the subject again by Russert on Sunday, Clinton backed off his previous endorsement of torture--but not his affection for the Bauer character. "It happens every season with Jack Bauer, but ... in the real world it doesn't happen very much," Clinton said. "If you have a policy which legitimizes this, it's a slippery slope and you get in the kind of trouble we've been in here with Abu Ghraib, with Guantanamo, with lots of other examples."

Clinton said he didn’t know what he would do if confronted with the proverbial ticking bomb and terrorist in hand, but suggested -- currying no favor with the intelligence community -- that agents could torture but be prepared to face the consequences for violating the law or Geneva Conventions.

"I think what our policy ought to be is to be uncompromisingly opposed to terror--I mean to torture, and that if you're the Jack Bauer person, you'll do whatever you do and you should be prepared to take the consequences," he said. "And I think the consequences will be imposed based on what turns out to be the truth."

Clinton seemed willing to defer to the torturing Bauers of the world. “If you look at the show, every time they get the president to approve something, the president gets in trouble, the country gets in trouble. And when Bauer goes out there on his own and is prepared to live with the consequences, it always seems to work better."

So, memo to the folks at CTU: this president loves your show - but he doesn’t have your back.

-- Joe Mathews

Of presidents and dynasties

On NBC's "Meet the Press" this morning, former President Bill Clinton was asked whether the world would view a President Hillary Clinton as the establishment of a Clinton dynasty to follow two Bushes as president. The former president suggested that being fair to his wife was more important than fears of political dynasties in an ostensibly democratic country.

"I think the real question here is not whether she's establishing a dynasty, but ...almost whether we should eliminate her because she happens to be my wife, if she is otherwise the person who would be the best president," Clinton said. "I don't like it whenever anybody gets something they're not entitled to just because of their families."

Clinton claimed that he had long encouraged her to go into politics, and even suggested they not marry because she should pursue her own political career.

"When we were going together in law school, I thought - I literally told her she shouldn't marry me because she was more gifted than me at politics," he recalled. "She was the best person in our generation, and she should go home and do it. And she laughed and said she'd never run for office. She said, 'I'm too hard-headed. Nobody'll ever vote for me. I'll find another way to serve.' That's how our life began."

Not that Clinton was suggesting that there is a Clinton dynasty.

"When we think of dynasties in historical circumstances, it's King Louis I through 25, and you get it because of who your family is, not because of what your merits are. In her case, she clearly has established, after leaving the White House, a totally different career path than I ... did, from operating from a different political base, with a set of expertise areas ... that I didn't bring to the White House, and for a very different time where the security issues are much more important."

-- Joe Mathews

Another political daughter turns writer

What is it with the kids of political figures that drives them to the keyboard? As writers, we understand the impulse, of course -- it is by far the most honorable and noble profession available to humankind, after all -- but why do so many political daughters pick up the proverbial pen?

The latest into the fold is Meghan McCain, daughter of Sen. John McCain from Arizona, who is about to join the blogosphere, according to a Women's Wear Daily brief on the announcement party. We weren't able to find an active page for the blog, but you all know about unexpected production delays. According to McCain, the idea is to create something of a Hunter S. Thompson "Fear and Loathing" approach to politics, which could be interesting given the conservative outlook of her father, and the even more conservative outlooks of the Republican voters he's soliciting these days.

Thompson, of course, was an American iconoclast, as erratic in his writing as he was in his drug intake. But he also inspired a generation of journalists with his sharp eye and even sharper pen (he once described Hubert Humphrey as "a treacherous, gutless old ward-healer who should be put in a ... bottle and sent off on the Japanese current." Now that's political poetry.).  As to his thoughts on former President Richard M. Nixon, well, you'll just have to use your imagination.

McCain, although her writing will be blog-only (for the time being, anyway), joins the ranks of First Daughter Jenna Bush, Al Gore's daughters Kristin Gore and Karenna Gore Schiff, and Mary Cheney.  Of course, Margaret Truman, who apparently writes better than she sings, beat them all to the punch.

If we missed any -- smart money would say we did -- feel free to add them in the Comments section.

-- Scott Martelle

Two days late ...

... which in blog time may as well be two years, but this is still worth noting. The folks at MTV and MySpace held their first in a planned series of interviews with the presidential contenders on Thursday, and incorporated online instant feedback. Joshua Levy over at techPresident liked what he saw, and on tech and Web 2.0 matters that's a hard crew to please.

We missed the live event, which used Flektor to tabulate real-time votes by viewers on how they thought John Edwards was doing. It will be interesting to see how audiences react to the different candidates once they've all participated -- kind of an overview of who was answering the questions, and who was ducking. Overall, only 1% thought Edwards ducked the questions, setting a benchmark for those to come.

And near as we can tell, no one asked the underwear question -- boxers or briefs? -- which can only be good for democracy.

-- Scott Martelle

Chris Dodd's 1% solution

Sometimes, it doesn't hurt to think small, especially when your immediate goal is simply to keep from getting swallowed by bigger fish.

Chris Dodd is one of several presidential candidates --- in both parties --- who isn't going to report a king's ransom in contributions after the latest fundraising period ends Sunday. But as he did through the year's first six months, when he raised more than $7 million, he needs enough to carry on. Enough to pay the basic bills and keep his long-shot scenario alive (the hope that just before the voting starts, his party will realize what a gem he's been all along).

Joining others making their final pushes for dough, Dodd sent out a short e-mail to supporters late this week asking for ... $23.

Every little bit helps, after all. And not asking for the moon could maximize his return.

We wondered, though, why $23? Could it be that the figure represents precisely 1% of the $2,300 cap on donations to a single candidate in the primary season?

For Dodd, that definitely would be logical. In virtually every national poll of Democratic-leaning voters, from the campaign's start to now, Dodd has had a lock on 1% support.

That's also what he scored in the recent LA Times/Bloomberg surveys that zeroed in on Iowa and South Carolina (in New Hampshire, he didn't quite meet that threshold --- perhaps many of those $23 checks are destined for use in the Granite State).

-- Don Frederick

BREAKING NEWS: The Newt Watch -- now he says no

Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker whose political striptease over running for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination went through even more layers of clothing than Fred Thompson, sent out a spokesman today to say that the Georgian had decided not to make the effort this time.

Barely 72 hours ago the 64-year-old Gingrich had announced that a close advisor would depart Monday on a three-week nationwide trek to gauge possible financial commitments and that if he could round up $30 million worth, Gingrich didn't see how he could resist such popular pressure to run.

Today, the spokesman, Rick Tyler, said Gingrich had just discovered that he could not legally explore a political opportunity like running for president while remaining head of American Solutions, his tax-exempt political organization. So he was giving up the presidential idea. "Newt is not running," Tyler said.

A master at manipulating the media, even before helping to invent the "Contract With America" that in 1994 won Congress back for the GOP after decades of minority status, Gingrich is an erudite and eloquent speaker who retains a loyal Republican following despite his resignation after Republican election losses in 1998.

A presidential confrontation next year between Gingrich and Hillary Clinton, who so often denounced his right-wing conspiracy, would have been one of the most entertaining in decades. And the debates would have surely outdrawn reruns of "The Simpsons."

The decision's implications for the other Republican candidates seem minimal, except possibly the freeing up of some Gingrich donors awaiting his decision. You can bet that the Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson folks are calling them this afternoon.

In public, such as during the Bill Clinton-Monica Lewinsky affair, Gingrich can be one of the most pointedly partisan speakers imaginable. His biting remarks leave scars not easily forgotten, and he'd never make any Democratic Lincoln Bedroom list. Yet out of office, he can also publicly debate prominent Democrats like Mario Cuomo and produce a fascinating evening of bipartisan political dialogue rich in enlightening history.

In person Gingrich's attention to and involvement with those around him is intense, like a college professor engaging students in the hall after a lecture. Win-or-lose, his ...

Rudy and the Republican women

Republican presidential contender Rudy Giuliani tried this morning to neutralize one potential problem spot for himself if he wins the Republican nomination and faces off against Democratic New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in November '08 -- gender.

Giuliani was in Palm Springs for a fundraiser and to speak to the biannual conference of the National Federation of Republican Women, where he argued before the 1,600 2,000* convention goers that the party needed to compete in all 50 states, not just the tried-and-true "red" states that sent George W. Bush to the White House twice.

"I think we can compete for every single man's vote, every single woman's vote. I don't care who the candidate is on the other side," Giuliani said. "The American people decide who they want as president based on who they think the right person is for the country, not whether somebody is a man or a woman or of a different race or gender or ethnic background or whatever."

He didn't mention by name the obvious allusions -- Clinton, who could become the first woman president; Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, who could become the first president with clear African roots; or New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who could become the first Latino president. Nor did Giuliani cite polls showing that Republicans see him as the most electable GOP candidate.

But for the most part, Giuliani stuck to what has become his basic theme of late: bashing Clinton as though the two front-runners were already squaring off, invoking Ronald Reagan's name at every turn and arguing that the only way to end the war in Iraq is with "victory for the United States of America" -- the last leading to a prolonged standing ovation from the predominantly conservative crowd.

But the best thing Giuliani may have delivered for himself is goodwill. He was the only Republican candidate to address the group, which delegate Cathy Philips of Lakeland, Fla., described as comprising the party's "worker bees." (A full story on Giuliani and this key Republican constituency is available here on this website and in Sunday's print editions.)

Remember, Giuliani is on his third wife and his kids barely talk to him -- not the kind of family background that usually resonates with activist Republican women. But he seems to have overcome some of that, judging by a fresh Gallup poll, which shows him drawing slightly better among Republican women than among Republican men.

Who has the gender gap now? Fred Thompson -- whose much-younger wife, Jeri, has drawn some criticism for the kinds of outfits not seen on the floor of the Palm Springs Convention center today. "Mature women like me look at that and think, 'That could be my husband, run off with some pretty young thing,' " said Mona Blocker Garcia, a delegate from Marfa, Texas. Her candidate? Giuliani.

-- Scott Martelle

* Convention organizers updated their attendance estimate after this item was initially posted.

BREAKING NEWS: Giuliani fundraiser was mystery initiative backer

A close friend and major fundraiser of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has identified himself as the mystery financer of the proposed California initiative to apportion the state's 55 electoral votes by congressional district instead of winner-take-all.

He is New York hedge fund billionaire Paul Singer. He said he provided the $175,000 to initially finance the petition drive to get the measure on the June 2008 ballot. But as The Times' Dan Morain revealed in an exclusive story on this website last night, the drive has foundered on internal disputes and lack of further financing.

The petition drive's backers had remained a mystery since the effort was first revealed here in a July Top of the Ticket item. Democratic critics portrayed it as a power grab to wrest away some of the state's electoral votes, which have all gone to the Democratic candidates for the past four presidential elections. Some 19 of the state's 53 congressional districts would seem likely to vote for a GOP presidential candidate, enough to swing some recent national elections.

A Giuliani campaign spokeswoman, Maria Comella, said today that Singer's donation "was completely independent from our campaign."

Singer oversees Elliott Associates, an $8 billion investment fund. He is also chairman of Giuliani's northeast fundraising operation that produced a third of the New Yorker's $33.5 million campaign war chest in the first six months of 2007. Singer and his employees have donated at least $182,000 to the Giuliani campaign so far this year.

"I made the contribution without any restrictions," Singer's statement said. Some Democrats have threatened legal action, complaining that federal campaign finance laws were violated if the Giuliani campaign was involved.

Tonight, Howard Dean, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, issued a statement demanding to know "the truth about Rudy's involvement in and knowledge about this shameful effort to disenfranchise voters."

Morain's complete latest report is available here and in Saturday's print editions.

--Andrew Malcolm