The political cost of the GOP's immigration policy

Michael Gerson, who as onetime chief White House speechwriter may or may not have penned some of President Bush's most memorable lines, today provides his latest take on the debate within Republican ranks over immigration policy.  And he warns that the vibe emanating from the party could sink it.

Gerson, in his nationally syndicated column, takes note of recent efforts by Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani to paint each other as weak-kneed about cracking down on illegal immigrants.  Gerson's view: "One gets the impression of decent men intimidated by the vocal anger of elements of their own party."

As he describes what he sees as the potentially dire political consequences of a GOP stiff-arm of the Latino vote, he writes: "I have never seen an issue where the short-term interests of Republican presidential candidates in the primaries were more starkly at odds with the long-term interests of the party itself."

The greater focus on illegal immigration among Republicans, compared to Democrats, was starkly illustrated ...

by the recent findings of a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll.

Also today, a front-page Washington Post story keyed to the decision by the main GOP presidential candidates to forego a forum at largely black Morgan State University in Baltimore includes this pithy quote from Jack Kemp, the party's 1996 vice presidential nominee:  "We sound like we don't want immigration; we sound like we don't want black people to vote for us. What are we going to do -- meet in a country club in the suburbs one day?"

Kemp long has argued for a more inclusive GOP, and Gerson has weighed in previously on the political danger he fears his party is courting.  In a May column, he wrote: "Conceding Latinos to the Democrats in perpetuity is a stunning failure of political confidence."  (This piece, in turn, spurred a spirited rejoinder from the "Lonewacko" blog, which bills itself as offering "non-'liberal' coverage of immigration, Iraq, terrorism, multiculturalism, Los Angeles, California, privacy, and occasionally celebrities and wacky humor.")

The back-and-forth got us wondering about California political stats -- specifically, the changes in Republican legislative representation in the post-Proposition 187 era.

The famed 1994 ballot measure sought to get tough on illegal immigration at the state level and was embraced by Republican Gov. Pete Wilson as part of his reelection strategy.  He won easily and the proposition passed overwhelmingly (it was a GOP year across the nation in general).

But the courts later voided the initiative's key components.  And the backlash among Latinos paid long-term dividends for the state Democratic Party, as the numbers show.

In the immediate aftermath of the '94 vote, California's delegation in the U.S. House was evenly split: 27 Democrats, 25 Republicans. Now, Democrats have a solid majority, 34 to 19.  Likewise, in the state's 80-member Assembly, Republicans and Democrats were virtually tied following the '94 vote. Now, Democrats dominate 48 to 32.

Other factors played key roles in these shifts (not the least of which was Democratic control of the redistricting process).  And as several recent studies have shown, the Latino allegiance to the Democratic banner is not set in stone; the state party's share of the electorate has actually dropped since 1994, as more and more voters register as independents.

On election days, though, voters flock to the party that they believe best serves their self-interest, regardless of their registration.  And if Gerson has got it right, what happened in California may be replicated in much of the rest of the nation over the next decade or two.

-- Don Frederick

Comments

[Stephen Cassidy]

My prediction: If the Rep nominee is anyone other than McCain, the Dems will take 75% plus of the Latino vote in 2008.

"Richardson said he believes the Hispanic vote will swing even more strongly in the direction of the Democrats in 2008 because of what he called a "colossal error" by the Republicans on immigration."

[Funny Truth]

Yep, Call the Hispanics names then ask them to vote for you ?? They must truly be kidding right?!!!!!!

[J Cir]

It's sick how the legitimate Latino community has the audacity to hold both political parties hostage, with the ransom being amnesty for immigrants who are in the country illegal. The lack of allegiance to America while demanding from American taxpayers ever more money to pay for the health care, education, and incarceration of the never ending flood of illegal immigrants coming across the border with Mexico is shameful and insightful. The welfare and well-being of American citizens must be the priority of the United States government. What a shame that the Mexican and scores of Latin American governments care less about their poor and undereducated then does the US.

[Dr Coles]

Criminals did NOT build America; Citizens and LEGAL immigrants built it. Illegal Aliens and Immigration is NOT the same thing. 80% of the American people want an end to anarchy! This is NOT a Democrat, Republican, Independent issue. It's an American Issue.

Illegal aliens are criminals, those who hire them are criminals and those who aid-and-abet them are criminals.

Illegal aliens in America have NO rights. We are required by law to arrest and prosecute, deport them. (Title 8 U.S. Code) To report illegal aliens call the DHS National Hotline 1 866 DHS 2ICE. (1-866-347-2523)

No, matter your political party affiliation, and setting aside your thoughts on issues. We all need to remember what it is to be an American Citizen. We need to make sure our elected representatives obey their Oath of Office and keep their Oath of Allegiance. See http://tinyurl.com/2znnvl Know whom you are voting for.

[Dr Coles]

Criminals did NOT build America; Citizens and LEGAL immigrants built it. Illegal Aliens and Immigration is NOT the same thing. 80% of the American people want an end to anarchy! This is NOT a Democrat, Republican, Independent issue. It's an American Issue.

Illegal aliens are criminals, those who hire them are criminals and those who aid-and-abet them are criminals.

Illegal aliens in America have NO rights. We are required by law to arrest and prosecute, deport them. (Title 8 U.S. Code) To report illegal aliens call the DHS National Hotline 1 866 DHS 2ICE. (1-866-347-2523)

No, matter your political party affiliation, and setting aside your thoughts on issues. We all need to remember what it is to be an American Citizen. We need to make sure our elected representatives obey their Oath of Office and keep their Oath of Allegiance. See http://tinyurl.com/2znnvl Know whom you are voting for.

[wandagb]

The Republicans should represent Americans and let the Democrats continue to be the Illegal Immigration Party representing non-citizens and the recent amnestied. At least that way Americans will still have some voice before the colonization by leaf-blowing peasants is complete.

[Dean Smith--Palm Desert, California---USA]

Immigration is definitely the issue to separate the two parties this election season. I just wish the election were being held tomorrow. I want to see the expression on the liberals faces when its over. LOL.

[9087y98]

They lost the black vote, the gay vote, the Muslim vote, and now the Hispanic vote. Why don't they just put on white robes? They're so close anyway. They're effectively representing mostly white male protestants. Sounds familiar? Yet this is 2007. They clearly deserve to lose as many votes as possible.

[Daves]

A $515-billion spending bill was passed under the cover of darkness, Monday night that undermines plans for a U.S.-Mexico border fence, says many media reports. The spending plan carefully manipulated the already signed President Bush bill into a dying provision for a two-tier barrier that has worked well on the California border with Mexico, the newspapers reported. Republicans are screaming about the contrived move that's expected to result in a SINGLE-TIERED TRAVESTY OF A BORDER FENCE. It is strange we can afford to pay for the Iraq war, but the protection of the American taxpayer it seems is not even a priority? "The fact that the amendment was buried in a bloated, 3,500-page document tells of the underhand coersion of Kay Bailey Hutchinson of Texas and Democrats unserious approach to border security and illegal immigration.
Fax for FREE your PUBLIC SERVANT (politician) at numbersusa.com and read them the "RIOT ACT."!

[hecowe]

"By all means, let's make sure we do what's best for the Republican Party..."

THAT'S WHAT'S SO WRONG!!! Both parties set themselves up to win "the game" of politics and NEVER do what's right for the country. We have the same problems over and over and over again and NOTHING is ever done. The Democrats have to make sure we lose the war in Iraq to win in November, the Republicans had better stop this border talk or they'll never win the Latino vote. Blah, blah, blah, ad infinitum...

Build the fence NOW before the people rise up and clean out the halls of Congress (AND THE PRESIDENCY!) in some sweeping election where every incumbent gets turned out of office.

[Kevin]

Candidates who think it's safe to scapegoat the only group in the country that can't vote are idiots. For every one of the 12 million undocumented immigrants we have ere there are at least 12 million citizen family and friends. Nothing motivates people to vote like going after their family and friends.

[ivan]

Republicans will pay next November. They have become the WASP party in a changing America. The current "who is tougher on illegals" rhetoric by Romney and Huckabee will make sure they don't get a single minority vote next November. And everybody knows that a comprhensive immigration reform is a matter of when, not if. The days of Billy Bobb are behind us, and thank God for that. Monsters such as Lou Dobbs, Senator Sessions from Alabama, Tancredo must be the ones deported or put in jail for their hatred.