New California GOP poll results

Some movement up and down in a new Field Poll of 348 likely California Republican voters.

Rudy Giuliani is still on top of the field with 35%, a level he's maintained for nearly six months. Mitt Romney trails at 14%, but that's twice his total from March. Undeclared Fred Thompson is at 13%, up from 8%. John McCain, who had 24% in March, has tumbled to 9%.

The combined percentages for the rest of the GOP pack totals 9% with Tom Tancredo at 3%, Duncan Hunter at 2% and all the others at 1%. Sam Brownback, who had 2% in March, has 1% now. Mike Huckabee, who had 3% in March now has 1%, but most of the telephone polling was done before all the publicity surrounding his second-place Iowa straw poll finish last Saturday. Margin of error is +/- 5.4 percentage points.

One interesting tidbit from the data, which is ominous for Giuliani, is that the more a voter has followed the news, the smaller the New Yorker's lead becomes. Among voters who claim to be following the race very closely, Giuliani's lead over Romney is nearly slashed in half, to 13%, and his lead over Thompson falls to 15%. Presumably as the state's primary nears, more voters will start following the news and the lead could narrow significantly.

Among population sub-groups, Romney scores the same between men and women while Giuliani and Thompson do slightly better among men. Romney and Thompson seem to do better among those over 50, Giuliani better among those 18-49. Giuliani does better in Southern California than in the northern part of the state, 37%-32%, as does Romney, 15%-13%, but Thompson does better in Northern California, 16%-12%.

Giuliani does better in coastal areas than inland, 38%-30%, while Romney polls higher inland, 16%-13%, and Thompson is about even, 14% coastal and 12% inland.

--Andrew Malcolm

Comments

[Ron]

It would be nice if Republicans read. Full stop. And for those who do, perhaps articles in the new New Yorker (Giuliani) and the new Atlantic (Republicans in general-but the Rove article is especailly brilliant) might open their eyes. But, you know what: I doubt it. Limbaugh and Orally uber alles.

[Jed Merrill]

Nice to see Romney improving so well. He is the smartest candidate to run in 20 years.

Looks like he won the Illinois straw poll today, with 40% of the vote, a nice follow up to his Ames victory.

[Greg]

Romney has been doing everything he can to get himself involved in this race. At this very minute, he is seeing the results of the MASSIVE amount of $$$ and resources he piled into Iowa and it is giving the APPEARANCE that he has become a real contender.

This has also given him a little bump in credibility with some voters who wonder why Giuliani and others decided to bypass the Iowa straw poll.

The BIG question remains; can Romney do enough to position himself as the opponent of Giuliani in the stretch run to the Republican nomination. It is now looking like he may given Thompson's impotent campaign.

The problem for Romney is the same as it has always been. He has COMPLETELY changed his views on issues that are hugely important to the Republican base (abortion, gun control, illegal immigration) and in the end this will be his ultimate downfall.

If you watch him on news shows trying to explain away the many contradictions and inconsistancies it is really kind of laughable. He comes off as completely dishonest in every way.

When he tries to go head to head with Giuliani in a debate he will be shredded in every way known to man and he will soon be a has been in American politics.

[BrandonF]

This is good news for Fred Thompson. He's moving up despite not being in the news while Romney spends $3.5 million for a meaningless straw poll in Iowa. No word yet on how much Illinois cost him but he's the candidate that had people out rounding up supporters and taking them to the state fair to vote.

I doubt he's the smartest candidate in 20 years, in fact he's not even the smartest candidate in the last 200 years. That's ok though Fred will be in the race shortly and we'll have the nominee. Hillary doesn't win ten states against Fred!

[Deaconblue]

Hillary doesn't win 10 states against Fred? I thought the Fred bubble had popped and you Fredheads got your senses back. A tired, lazy, southern, moderate, lobbyist who is a terrible public speaker would be lucky to carry one state outside of the south. Rudy has a shot but he's got a million skeletons in the closet. If you want to beat Hillary, Mitt's your man. He beat a very similar candidate (Shannon O'Brien) in Mass. and he could beat Hillary.
D

[Wally]

The more I see Romney the more I like him. I dropped Rudy a while ago. As for the Mormon thing. I know one I wish I knew more.

[Lori]

Fred Thompson doing better in Northern California? I am not surprised. Melanie Morgan and Lee Rogers, local talk show hosts on KSFO, are apparent Fred-heads. They trash talk daily McCain, Romney and Giuliani. They both seem to me to be apologists for Thompson and critics of the others. I think the other guys campaigns should try to get through to them. I doubt Fred can get the nomination and to speak ill of other republicans doesn't help the cause.

[DefendTheConstitution]

Dear LA Times,

Ron Paul just reached 18.87% in recent Illinois GOP Straw Poll. He obtained 9.1% in Iowa GOP Straw Poll. Out of 4 National GOP Debates after Poll, he was ranked 1st in 3 of them and 2nd in one.

Please, be fair and unbiased. Do not OMITT Ron Paul in your articles about Presidential Candidates.

Furthermore, he is unique and extraordinary candidate with serious policy, which can save us from US government bankruptcy, debt reaching $10 trillion, being caused by expanding warfare and welfare. He voted against Iraq war, Patriot Act, Military Comissions Act and can PROVE his principles and integrity by 20 years of flawless voting record in the Congress. Please, search for Ron Paul in Youtube.

Thank you.

(Ans: Alas, sir, in this Calif. poll he got 1% out of 348 polled. That's 3 people. Not much to write about there.)

[sonsof76]

I must agree. The more I see of Romney the more I like him. I think he can be forgiven for his change on the issues. He changed in the right direction after all. And Reagen was once a pro-abortion democrat. I respect him for his leadership, business experience, record as gov. and family man. Im losing support for Guliani, and I really dont think Fred T. has anything a presidential candidate requires. For now I think the republicans should rally behind Romney.

[Red State]

I have respect for most of the GOP candidates so I'm not going to badmouth any candidate. Sen. Mccain is a hero and deserves our respect. I just don't see him getting the traction he needs. Rudy is a proven leader and tough on crime. As a social conservative, I can't look passed the abortion thing with him, though I respect him on many levels. Fred Thompson really accomplished very little as a senator and he acts a politician better than he portrayes on in real life.

The more I investigate Gov Romney, the more I support him. People see him as a throwback to the beaver cleaver days of the 50's as a negative. I'm sorry but with the current state of D.C. I think we need some traditional amercican in the white house. He's against big government and even though his late to the game on abortion, I truly feel he's personally always been pro life and now has brought that view into line with his political platform.

He'll pound Hillary in any debate

[rearose]

no more republican pres. or no more republcian candiate rule this country is already dead and destry/messy country america under the republican party. we wont let the people suufer under the republcian party or canddiate. god will help american to put the right perosn at the top.k

[Liz]

Mr. Romney's trajectory seems to be straight up, I haven't been so enthused about politics myself for never. It's nice to have a real choice for once, Romney and fam outclasses the field by far.

[howardean]

"When he tries to go head to head with Giuliani in a debate he will be shredded in every way known to man and he will soon be a has been in American politics." - Greg

What? Head to head debate with Giuliani, Romney will be shredded in every way known to man?,... come on Greg, don't be ridiculous!

A debate is always Romney's specialty, and once Giuliani will debate with Romney head to head,... the verdict would be known and the nomination would be over, and the deadline in the newstand on the next day would be,...

"GIULIANI'S FOREHEAD SWEATS IN A HEAD TO HEAD DEBATE WITH ROMNEY."