Let's play with the dominoes

John Edwards' campaign this week began moving some of its field workers around and the end result is a drop in the number of campaign workers in Nevada, one of the early caucus states with ambitions of becoming a kingmaker – or at least to have some influence on the nominating process. The staff moves are likely a function of cash – Edwards had raised $23 million by the end of June to more than $50 million each for Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. But there also are indications that Edwards’ “domino theory” approach to winning the nomination is under pressure...

In the 2004 fight for the Democratic nomination, Edwards earned his political legitimacy with a surprise second-place showing in the Iowa caucuses. But then he watched as John Kerry’s win there became the first domino to fall in what ultimately was an easy path to the nomination.

Edwards has kept his focus on Iowa in the three years since, and that hard work gave him a lead in early polls there during the winter. The plan was to win early in Iowa and do well in New Hampshire then ride the wave of free-media coverage into the vast -- and vastly expensive -- Super Tuesday primaries. But over the past few months Clinton has edged ahead of Edwards in Iowa (some polls show them in a statistical tie), and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson has been picking up some ground, though he’s still way back in the single digits. in the 11-12% range.

Key here is that for Edwards’ domino theory to work, he needs that first domino to fall. Despite Nevadans' desire to use their role as the first state in the west to vote for a nominee to influence the race, the state’s caucuses don’t have the same weight of history that Iowa and New Hampshire share. And Nevada’s small number of convention delegates isn’t likely to push a candidate through.

So what’s Edwards to do? Simple: Pull back in a state where he’s polling a distant third and in true Vegas style stack his chips in a place where he thinks he can –- and still has a reasonable chance to -- win.

-- Scott Martelle

Comments

[Stephen Cassidy]

I agree with your comments on Edwards campaign. I disagree with your statement that Richardson, while gaining strength, is way back in single digits.

Richardson has gained considerable momentum in Iowa. The last five polls conducted in Iowa put him in the low teens. Pollster.com has Richardson's average at 12.3%, just 4 points from Obama. Richardson is polling in Iowa close to the level Kerry was at in the summer of 2003, and much better than Edwards was, who finished a surprising second in 2004.

Two other things to keep in mind: 1) Edwards is trying to do something no one has ever done in a contested Iowa Democratic caucus - go wire to wire as the frontrunner and win on election day, and 2) in 2004, almost half of the Iowa Democratic caucus voters didn't select a candidate until less than a month prior to the election.

Right now I see the Iowa race as a toss up among Clinton, Edwards, Obama and Richardson. Anyone could emerge as the winner, assuming Gore stays out.

[ans.: Good point on the polling numbers. I was looking at Nevada, where Richardson's still in the single digits. --SM