Florida's punishment might be a reward

This morning Florida has only 27 days left to delay its Jan. 29 primary back into February or lose all of its delegate seats at next August's Democratic National Convention in Denver.  The Democratic National Committee set the deadline after a hearing Saturday to protect the primary/caucus primacy of Iowa and New Hampshire.

The stampede by states to move up into early voting, which could soon include Michigan, threatens to turn a traditionally drawn-out primary process into a truncated, high-stakes blizzard of voting with little time for winners of some states to benefit from any  momentum or for others to recover.  Theoretically, by the first week of February we could know the identities of the parties' nominees, who must then wait around for six months to be ratified at conventions that have become mere formalities.

So far, there's no sign of any change of heart by Florida, the nation's fourth most populous state and the one that determined the final outcome of the 2000 election.  The loss of its official delegates would turn the state vote into a beauty contest.  But a very big beauty contest.

Although most of the attention has focused on Florida's potential loss of convention delegates, a strong argument could be made that in terms of actual clout or influence over candidates and their ...

policies, the state is better off having a primary when candidates are forced to listen to its voters than merely attending a convention and helping to ratify selections made in other states.

Once there was a point to national party conventions, where delegates gathered in one place at one time to hash out deals and compromises on candidates.  Many of the deals were consummated secretly in smoke-filled rooms.  As a reform after the chaos of 1968, primaries grew in importance to give some of the power back to the voters instead of a few kingmakers.

There is also an educational point to the primary process.  Candidates from faraway and very different states are forced to trek to primary states and travel around them and actually listen and be questioned and develop positions to address the specific concerns of that particular state's voters at a time when those folks actually hold some leverage, their votes.

Does anyone think, for instance, that, say, ethanol would be on the lips of so many candidates if it wasn't a major concern of Iowans in the first caucus state?

Primaries also force candidates to campaign in many places they will surely be flying straight over at 35,000 feet come the fall campaign of 2008.  Candidates not only learn the local issues, they hone their speaking and response skills for months while campaigning for primaries.  As Fred Thompson finally eases down the entrance ramp onto the campaign freeway early next month, he may be shocked to find how fast the traffic is already moving.  He'll have a very short period of time to get up to full speed.  Early slips by other candidates, which happened last spring, are largely forgotten by now.  Next month they'll be in the full spotlight of prime time.

Even in a primary beauty contest, Florida has the opportunity to force participating candidates to listen and speak to the concerns of Floridians.  What would voters think of candidates who skip such an important state?  The same for Michigan?  Come next August, what would Florida's official delegate votes matter with the candidate already selected and the droning roll call of states a boring formality?

The stampede for primary primacy is another nail in the coffin of national conventions.  They are very expensive rituals that have in recent decades become designed for major television networks, which actually aren't broadcasting much of them anymore.  Conventions do give rising stars a chance to be seen.  Recall the speech by someone named Barack Obama just three years ago?  Candidates also get an opportunity to present their campaign themes.  Remember John Kerry saluting and reporting for duty?

But if you thought Friday afternoon high school football pep rallies were a questionable investment of a half-hour's energy and vocal cords, wait till you spend five days at a giant national convention.  There, thousands of party loyalists get to wear funny hats and colorful pins and stickers, proclaiming their loyalty to the same candidate that every one they encounter is also supporting.

And the conventions will be great for local restaurants, bars, hotels and taxi companies in Denver and St. Paul-Minneapolis, where Republicans will congregate.  You don't want to think about trying to claim luggage at the airport the day before those affairs open.

But in terms of actual influence on the political candidates and process, Florida, if it does not succumb to the national party's threats, may well find that even a beauteous primary is a much better long-term investment.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Comments

[LT]

I'd really like to see the candidates address global poverty.

[Madison]

I like the bit about the nails in the coffin, because it is so true. The system is not very good, it needs to be changed.

[charles]

I would say GO FOR IT FLORIDA!!!!!! I grow tired of other states having select who I would like to run... Iowa has nothing in common about politics that would be damaged on letting others decide who we want to run so cram the convention in your ear and save the blackmail for later!!!!! What are you afraid of? Might suprise you anyway

[Edmund J. Freedom]

Why not forgo the conventions and the outdated electoral college and elect our president by popular vote.