Fresh Iowa, N.H. & S.C. poll results

These are the polls that count in the primary season --- the ones that eschew a national sampling, focusing instead on voter preferences in the key early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. American Research Group has released fresh surveys from these battlegrounds and here's the overview:

*** For Republicans, the results underscore the increasingly competitive and unpredictable nature of the race for the GOP's presidential nod.

*** For Democrats, the findings in one state will gladden the Hillary Rodham Clinton camp, while figures from the other two will sadden it. For Barack Obama, exactly the reverse is true.

Now, the specifics. ....

Giuliani to the uninsured: Good luck

Rudy Giuliani at least gets credit for not trying to paper over the obvious.

As previewed in an earlier item here, he unveiled today his plan for grappling with the nation's health care problems. The proposal is centered around creating a tax deduction of up to $15,000 for families to buy their own health insurance from private companies, rather than relying on benefits provided by employers. The idea is very similar to one President Bush has pushed --- to absolutely no avail in Congress.

As for the uninsured, Giuliani is taking a laissez-faire approach to getting them coverage. Newday's Craig Gordon was with the former New York mayor on the campaign trail, and he writes that Giuliani agreed the uninsured "would find relief in his plan only after the free-market forces pushed the cost of private health insurance down far enough for the uninsured to afford it --- a process he acknowledged could take years."

Giuliani also echoed his past criticism of the various health care ideas promoted by Democratic presidential candidates, dismissing them as "socialized" medicine (a favorite GOP attack line that some party stalwarts used in the 1960s to oppose Medicare).

Giuliani is the first of the major Republican presidential contenders to offer anything close to a detailed blueprint on the health care issue. Although the others may present plans that envision a more direct federal role in efforts to reduce the ranks of the uninsured, it is highly doubtful any will be as ambitious as proposals pushed by the Democrats. By the time the general election campaign commences, the question of how aggressively the government should address this subject almost assuredly will loom as a major divide between the two parties.

-- Don Frederick

Book news

Joseph Biden has a busy schedule over the next few days as he promotes his just-published autobiography -- and in the process tries to energize his presidential campaign.

Biden got strong reviews for his performance in last week's CNN/YouTube debate, and he boasts especially impressive foreign policy credentials.  But in virtually every expert prediction of how the Democratic race might play out, he remains an afterthought.

The main buzz around him has been that he would be a prime contender for secretary of State in a Democratic administration.  The New York Observer wrote up such speculation in June; the New York Times followed with a similar piece on Sunday.

Biden began the media blitz that ostensibly plugs his new book, "Promises to Keep," with an appearance this morning on the "Today Show."  Tonight he'll drop by the "Late Show with David Letterman."  And over the next couple of days he's scheduled to pop up on talk shows on CBS, Fox News, CNN, MSNBC and National Public Radio.

The senator from Delaware, however, isn't alone these days in hawking a book aimed at political junkies.  In all-important Iowa, the executive director of the state Republican Party decided to try his hand at fiction.  The result: "Stand and Deliver," a novel focused on the Iowa caucuses (well, it's often been said that all the great themes in literature have been taken).

Chuck Laudner recently told a political blogger for the Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier that his book depicted "a little bit of what goes on behind the scenes and the decision-making process and the mistakes that are made” as a gaggle of make-believe GOP presidential contenders campaign in the state.

The author may have limited his audience a bit; according to the state party's website, all proceeds from the novel's sale -- the cost is $25 -- will go to help Republicans "take back control of the Iowa Legislature."

Somehow, we don't think Laudner will be trailing Biden on the talk-show circuit.

-- Don Frederick

Giuliani wades deeper into healthcare policy

Rudy Giuliani expands the policy debate on the Republican side of the presidential race today, becoming the first major GOP contender to offer a detailed plan to address an issue that polls consistently show ranks high among voter concerns: healthcare.

As Newsday's Craig Gordon reported while on the trail with the former New York mayor Monday, the contours of Giuliani's proposal have been apparent, but the particulars will be provided as the candidate continues stumping in New Hampshire.

To varying degrees, the major Democratic candidates have been ahead of the Republican pack in offering specific ways they would attack healthcare problems, especially the complex challenges of controlling costs and providing insurance for the almost 45 million Americans who lack it.

In line with the parties' differing philosophies, the Democrats envision a more aggressive role for the federal government in pursuing these goals. Giuliani, in making the preliminary case Monday for his prescription, asserted that the way to repair the healthcare system "is by relying on American principles, not Cuban and European principles, like the Democrats want to do."

That, of course, overstates the distinctions while linking the Democrats to left-wing filmmaker Michael Moore, whose new documentary "Sicko" touts the quality and availability of medical services in Cuba. Giuliani's rhetoric notwithstanding, no Democrat is promoting "socialized" medicine as practiced by Fidel Castro's government.

A less partisan, more carefully calibrated overview of the basic differences between the Democratic and Republican approaches to the healthcare issue can be found in this recent column by The Times' Ron Brownstein.

Among the other top Republicans, John McCain has pledged to outline his healthcare plan later this summer. Fred Thompson, obviously, won't be detailing his thoughts on the subject until he finally officially enters the contest. Meanwhile, the most interesting waiting game on this front involves Mitt Romney.

Just last year, as his tenure as governor of Massachusetts neared an end, Romney significantly burnished his political credentials by presiding over passage of a sweeping, innovative law requiring all state residents to obtain health insurance. Those who can afford coverage and don't get it face penalties on their state income taxes. Those who need financial help to pay for insurance get it from the state, with the size of the subsidy determined by whether they are below or just above the federal poverty level.

The law did not require a tax increase and Romney sang its praises in a 2006 commentary piece in the Wall Street Journal that was headlined, "Health Care for Everyone? We've found a way." As a presidential candidate intent on wooing the GOP's conservative base, however, he has been reluctant to extol the legislation or offer it as the approach he would adopt as president.

-- Don Frederick

Bob Dole on John McCain--and the Newt

Former Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas, who knows a little something about losing presidential campaigns, having been thumped by Bill Clinton 11 years ago (has it been that long already?), is feeling sorry and puzzled for Sen. John McCain, whose one-time front-running candidacy for the '08 GOP nomination has spiraled downward in recent weeks.

And Dole has some sharp words for former House speaker Newt Gingrich.

Dole was on Bloomberg TV's "Political Capital with Al Hunt" over the weekend, ostensibly to talk about co-authoring the report on improving healthcare for wounded veterans. But Hunt also asked the senator who would be the strongest Republican candidate next year?

"You know," Dole replied, "my heart has always been with my good friend John McCain. But it's just not happening. The buzz is gone. I mean, he's a great guy and thought he--he sticks to his guns. Whether it's campaign finance reform, which has cost him some people, and whether it's immigration, where I think he was on the right track....Or whether it's his support for the war. They are all very principled, but I don't know how he puts it all back together."

Hunt then asked Dole who would benefit from the McCain fade?

Obama, Clinton and religion

The continuing effort by many Democrats to more publicly discuss their religious faith and how it infuses their politics is highlighted by a new e-mail exchange between Christian Broadcast Network reporter David Brody and Barack Obama. The communication includes the presidential candidate discussing his recent comment that, "Faith got hijacked, partly because of the so-called leaders of the Christian Right, all too eager to exploit what divides us."

Brody, in e-mail questions he submitted to Obama's campaign a few weeks back, noted that some evangelicals were "taken aback" by the remark and asked Obama to expand on it. Obama, in answers Brody posted on his website Sunday, replied that his goal was to "contrast the heated partisan rhetoric of a distinct minority of Christian leaders with the vast majority of Evangelical Christians --- conservatives included --- who believe that hate has no place in our politics."

Obama also elaborates, to a degree that had been rare within Democratic circles, on what he describes as "the role that values and culture play in addressing" social problems.

For instance, after reiterating his support for "keeping guns out of the inner cities" --- and the need to fight the firearms' lobby on this issue --- he goes on to say that, "I also believe that when a gang-banger shoots indiscriminately into a crowd because he feels somebody disrespected him, we've got a moral problem. There's a hole in that young man's heart --- a hole that the government alone cannot fix."

Today, Brody offered his reflections on Obama's responses, as well as ...

DLC ignored by all but its beloved Bill

Former president Bill Clinton returned, in triumph, today to the "national conversation" of the Democratic Leadership Council, the centrist party group that played such a key role in his two White House wins.

The DLC has fallen into disrepair recently as the party and its presidential candidates moved to the left, abandoning the center of the political spectrum that allowed Clinton to build such successful political coalitions in the 1990s. In fact, none of the current Democratic candidates including Clinton's wife, Hillary, could find time to appear at the DLC's two-day national meeting in Nashville.

According to The Times' Robin Abcarian, who covered the sessions, Clinton was described as "our beloved President Clinton," treated to rousing ovations and mobbed after his remarks. "The good thing about being a former president," said the former president, "is you can say anything you want. The bad thing is no one has to listen."

Looking sunburned from a recent six-day African trip, Clinton wore a brown suit with a...

Maybe two grand gets you Eggs Benedict

In communities throughout America, pancake breakfasts are a friendly, low-key way for service organizations and other groups to raise a little bit of cash and for neighbors to pass a convivial weekend morning.  But here comes the modern presidential campaign ready to bend such events to its fundraising imperative.

As Newsday reports today, Hillary Rodham Clinton (with husband, Bill, in tow) will be in the Hamptons this weekend with more than just summer fun on their minds. Clinton aims to raise as much as $1 million for her presidential campaign during a series of appearances that include a pancake breakfast Saturday at the home of Democratic philanthropists Alan and Susan Patricof.

Cost of a plate of grilled batter: $1,000 (no word on whether bacon is extra). Want a keepsake to remind you of the meal for years to come?  Pose for a photo with the Clintons -- for $10,000.

Let's hope the photographer knows what he's doing.

-- Don Frederick

John and Elizabeth Edwards' fast-food ritual

As we previewed in an item last week, the best-known national group of Democratic centrists wraps up its annual convention today scorned by every one of the party's presidential contenders. But at least one of those candidates -- John Edwards -- had a good reason for skipping the gathering in Nashville.

It's his 30th wedding anniversary, and he and his wife, Elizabeth Edwards, are at home in North Carolina.  Presumably, their day includes a trip to a local Wendy's, a tradition that stems from what obviously was a particularly memorable order of fast-food fare on their first anniversary.

The ritual received a fair amount of attention after John F. Kerry picked Edwards as his running mate for the 2004 Democratic presidential ticket. At that time, Edwards explained to Katie Couric on the "Today Show" that on that first anniversary, "we were in the middle of moving. We were grungy and awful. And so instead of trying to go someplace fancy ... we just went to Wendy's."

Not surprisingly, Edwards still gets asked about the "celebration" (some may doubt whether that noun truly applies in this case). "Now that you're successful, do you get the double burger?" Jay Leno asked recently when Edwards appeared on "The Tonight Show."

The candidate responded by poking fun at another personal peculiarity that was much in the news earlier this year. "Well see," he said, "you can't spend money on food when you're spending money on haircuts."

The absence of Edwards, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama and other White House aspirants from the Democratic Leadership Council's convention spawned quite a bit of comment over the weekend, including this piece by the Politico's David Paul Kuhn and this commentary in the New York Times.  Providing some solace for the DLC, Bill Clinton will be there as today's featured speaker.

-- Don Frederick

So easy even a politician can do it

It's been a rough few weeks for the world's Pygmies.

First, during the recent Festival of Pan-African Music in the Republic of Congo, host officials housed a group of diminutive Pygmy musicians in the cages at the Brazzaville zoo, while other performing delegates got air-conditioned hotel rooms. Officials explained it was not discrimination; they just thought the group of 20 jungle natives would feel more at home amid the trees and animals.

But worse than that for the world's Pygmy people, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich recently called the nine-man field of fellow Republicans running for president a "bunch" of "pygmies." Can you imagine  the insult if Pygmies ever heard about it?

Gingrich said it last week at one of those regular Washington breakfasts where hurried journalists looking for a free meal and some quotes gather with someone who desperately wants to be quoted. It's a symbiotic relationship, like those blackbirds that pick insects off the backs of rhinos.

Gingrich, a leading critic of President Clinton as an adulterer at a time when Gingrich himself was one, is always ready with a quote, sometimes intelligent, usually sharp-tongued, always self-promoting. Recently, he's been trying to stay in the news because on some days he hints he might join the field of Pygmies seeking to lead a nation of non-Pygmies and on other days it's beneath him. On humid summer days in Washington with Congress about to go on vacation, such vacillations can pass for news.

Always thorough, we did a little research into the aptness of the former speaker's remarks and...