New L.A. Times/Bloomberg Poll

John McCain's presidential candidacy clearly is struggling, and a just-completed Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll is not going to buoy his camp's spirits.

We won't reveal the exact numbers here; for that, you can check The Times website later today later today for all the numbers and analysis. But here's the bad news for McCain in a nutshell: Not only do Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson enjoy more support among GOP-leaning voters, but the Arizona senator finds himself in heated competition with the "Don't Know" category.

The survey won't hearten Mitt Romney, either. He's risked the dreaded "flip-flopper" label to tack hard to the right in hopes of emerging as the choice of conservatives. But the poll found little evidence that this is happening. Indeed, when the candidate field is de-littered and Republican-leaners are asked to pick among the Big Four — Giuliani, McCain, Romney and Thompson — the latter easily carries the conservative bloc.

On the Democratic side of the ledger, the race remains stuck in place: Hillary Clinton is the party's solid favorite; Barack Obama runs a solid, but clearly distant, second.

One piece of good news for Obama: When all registered voters are presented with various general election matchups, an "electability" argument emerges for the Illinois senator, compared to Clinton.

The poll will not be welcomed by John Edwards. His showing among Democratic-leaning voters appears to raise the question of whether he should be considered a "top tier" contender.

— Don Frederick

Comments

[Geek, Esq.]

I can't tell if this poll would be good or bad news for Edwards? I thought he was a top-tier contender already.

[towalk]

The poll will "not be unwelcomed" by John Edwards? Is that a typo? I would think any poll that casts doubt on his top tier status would be unwelcomed, no?
(Thanks. You're right. Typo. Keep reading. Don)

[Greg]

Fred T has hugh support among the web saavy and true conservatives. I think Fred can bring the conservative dems in droves. every poll I see has him blowing away the compitition. He over took Rudy at the tshirtpoll.com and that you have to actually buy a shirt to get your vote to count means something.

[Qwkfingers]

Clearly, Fred Thompson will be the front runner for the GOP. The moment he announced, the whole campaign will change.

Qwkfingers

http://www.vote4fredthompson.com

[Alex Forshaw]

The link goes to an April poll.
(Answer: As the blog item notes, the latest poll numbers won't be fully released until late this afternoon, Pacific time. Check it again later--Andrew)

[anon]

One more time. IMHO, national poll numbers don't mean anything. What would make sense is to take polls in each of the 50 states individually and then add up the electoral votes from those results to see what the totals would be. That would make more sense. If you don't want to do all 50 states, then at least do individual polls in the "purple" states that were close last time around to see if there will be any difference this time. Who is winning in OH, FL, PA, NJ, MI, CO, AZ, NM, NV....

[Mike Lewyn]

At this stage, polls in Iowa and New Hampshire matter more than national polls. If Romney (for example) wins those states, the national polls will turn upside down.

[Tony_Daysog]

That's a strange sentence . . . "The poll will not be unwelcomed by John Edwards." Will you re-write that for clarity? Thanks.

[ignatious]

I think Fred Thompson is unproven, though Qwkfingers and Greg are clearly optimistic about his chances. No one is going to support Republicans more of the same stance on the war. I think Thompson's participation in the Libby defense fund also harms him. He looks like a Bush insider, party loyalist and not the honest, straight shooter conservative America is looking for. Only a straight shooter will get the conservative Democratic vote. Both conservatives and Democrats are tired of this mismanaged, unnecessary war aas well as the Republican culture of corruption and general disregard for the rule of law which no high profile Republican appears ready to reject.. Even Colin Powell is not saying he will vote for a Republican this time around.

[Proud Primate]

RE Fred Thompson, this from MSNBC (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18984877)

"Over the past few weeks, Thompson has begun surrounding himself with advisers who served under Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush. Among those also expected to play a role: Mary Matalin, a former adviser in the current Bush administration, and Tim Griffin, an ex-aide at the Republican National Committee who as a U.S. attorney in Arkansas was involved in the controversy over the firings of federal prosecutors."

Hah! Tim Griffin, whose credentials are that he prepared "caging lists" (and then emailed them to George W Bush.ORG instead of .COM -- oops! that's a parody site)
-- lists soon to be vetted by the House Judiciary Committee
-- lists which rewarded (black/hispanic) soldiers in Iraq for their sacrifice by challenging their absentee ballots on the basis of their being "not at this address"
-- lists which are a felony
-- lists which the GOP signed a 1986 consent decree promising never to use again.

Tim Griffin (the non-lawyer serving in the stead of the fired US Atty in Eastern Arkansas) who resigned in disgrace (and in haste) last week.
He's perfect for GOP style elections, in the grand tradition of Rove, Atwater, and Segretti !!

[Kestutis D]

I couldn't believe that the LA Times chose not to include Ron Paul in this poll ! If this isn't an example of deliberate sabotage of a viable candidate, I don't know what is. Paul is the only one of the second tier candidates generating any significant buzz, and other recent polls have placed him squarely in the middle of the pack of Republican contenders.

There is absolutely no reason why Paul should be overlooked here, and the LA Times has a responsibility to not to frame the poll in a way that has a bias against Ron Paul.