The 2010 elections: Twitter isn't a very reliable prediction tool

There's nothing quite as much fun as watching the election returns on CNN, whose newsroom, packed with all sorts of goofy push-button video monitors and high-tech gadgetry, looks like it could double as the set for the next "Star Trek" movie. I guess all that technology didn't entirely go to waste, as CNN proved during its coverage of the high-stakes Nevada Senate battle between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and "tea party" insurgent Sharron Angle.

It was an ugly race, with each side slinging mud left and right. In the end, Reid won surprisingly handily, perhaps thanks to a host of Angle whoppers, including an interview she did in June in which she said that if she were counseling a 13-year-old rape victim who was considering an abortion, she would tell her that "two wrongs don't make a right." But CNN came up with the most fascinating social media take on the race, illustrating the fluctuating opinions that voters had of each candidate through the number of tweets sent that registered support of or opposition to each candidate.

As you can see from this interactive chart, CNN found nearly 572,000 tweets involving the two candidates. As it turned out, Reid was hardly a Twitter favorite; 54% of the tweets were anti-Reid while only 12% were anti-Angle, while Angle edged out Reid among favorable tweets, 11% to 8%. You can play around with the chart yourself to get an overview how many tweets were sent during each week of the campaign.

But one big question remains, which CNN didn't seem prepared to answer: Why did Reid win the most votes if he got so thoroughly trounced in the Twitter race? Does that mean that candidates such as Angle, who was clearly propelled by passionate "tea party" supporters, were natural magnets for Twitter-friendly voters? Were Reid voters more comfortable with old-media habits? Did "tea party" supporters simply send out far more tweets, drowning Reid in negative messages? Or, ahem, is Twitter just not an especially reliable indicator of what people are going to do once they enter the voting booth? 

It would be interesting to see the Twitter traffic for a separate race, such as the Jerry Brown versus Meg Whitman gubernatorial contest in California, to see if the patterns of support were any different. But my own takeaway here is that Twitter may be a great way for a community of like-minded people to stay in touch -- like Justin Bieber fans -- but so far it doesn't seem to be a particularly useful barometer for more complex, important decisions, such as political voting patterns.

It's a conclusion that Malcolm Gladwell arrived at in a recent piece he did in the New Yorker, which demolished a lot of myths about Twitter's supposed impact on social revolutions in Moldova and Iran. It turns out that what got Harry Reid re-elected was party discipline and get-out-the-vote strategy, two things that existed long, long before anyone was making inflated claims about the so-called Twitter Revolution.

Photo: Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev) at an election night party in Las Vegas after defeating Sharron Angle. Credit: Jae C. Hong/Associated Press

Comments

[Brittanicus]

WHAT THE TEA PARTY EXPECTS?

I’m proud of being a supporter for the Tea Party of West Michigan, that as-one-people of Americans, we believe in an overhaul of our government. Not Just the majority party, but the Republicans as well, who have both run away with the idea that they are shielded from the people’s intervention of the financial mess they have brought our children and their grandchildren. I noticed there is a bad taste in the mouths of the Lib-ocrats, as they now must swim the same way as the moderate Conservatives or get caught up in the Tea Party rip tide. These election results are an ultimatum that this is a growing revolution; it is the mounting anger of the Tea Party. Both parties are notified now that even though the midterm election is over, the Tea Party has only just begun to clean house in the halls of Congress. The people have spoken and it’s about the revulsion of the corruption in Washington and in State Capitols.

The Republicans have taken back the house, but they better understand the consequences of playing the same old, tired game over and over again against the people’s interest will not work anymore. We as Americans have become too passive, entrusting our future to career politicians who are busily filling their own pockets; promising the public to carry out their wishes, but instead negotiated behind closed doors with nefarious lobbyists to slit our fiscal throats. We--as Americans are poor defenders of our rights under the US Constitution, and we should bare our chests and close down shop, across this country as the Europeans do and organize nationwide strikes? The Tea party will not tolerate senile Senator Harry Reid’s drive to reward the 13 to 20 illegal alien criminals. Yes! Illegal aliens who affronted our laws, and stole into a sovereign country must be punished.

Rand Paul, a Kentucky Republican who won the Senate seat removed pro-illegal immigrant Democrat Jack Conway. Paul supports state-led solutions to illegal immigration such as Governor Brewers Arizona SB 1070 immigration law. He also wants to build an electric fence between the United States and Mexico, which would certainly be a major deterrent. Unlike the open border zealots and business special interest groups he is prepared enforce the “Rule of Law” and protect the US; Paul also want to move military reservations abroad, back to this nation to protect us and to guard the porous border . It’s very obvious that many of the hard- nosed Liberal lawmakers and Governors lost the race, owing to their sickening agenda of giving criminal aliens some kind Immigration reform. Hopefully the new make-up of the house will investigate illegal aliens being released as they have no criminal record, other than entering America through the backdoor.

The majority of American citizens are now very much aware, that decades of government have been pilfering tax money to support illegal alien families. That also goes for expectant women who intentionally come to our nation, to have their instant citizenship baby (A-n-c-h-o-r Baby), by the hundreds of thousands annually. With no insurance and no money, leaving taxpayers to pay for pre-natal debt to hospitals, then collect thousands of dollars from the unaware citizen in welfare. It’s doubtful we can repeal the instant citizenship act, but it can be revised to stop this draining of public welfare treasuries? The Tea Party new elected politicians better table any chance of Immigration Reform, and start creating obstacles to Senator Harry Reid and Boxer, who have a appalling history of immigration enforcement. My guess that countless of numbers of illegal aliens voted for them, as they all carry deceiving identification such as the housemaid who worked for Meg Whitman?

California has a poorly managed welfare system where many people want something for nothing, including illegal aliens who use false ID. We must sever all welfare and public subsidies to non citizens that will save billions for the overtaxed US. August 11, 2009--Los Angeles County Supervisor Michael D. Antonovich announced that welfare to foreign nationals with nationalized babies projected a cost over a 12 month period – this would exceed $575 million dollars. Those infants of illegal aliens in the County collected nearly $22 million in welfare and over $26 million in food stamps. Annually the cost of illegal immigration to Los Angeles County taxpayers exceeds over $1 billion dollars, which includes $350 million for public safety, $400 million for healthcare, and $500 million in welfare and food stamps allocations. Twenty-four percent of the County’s total allotment of welfare and food stamp benefits goes directly to the children of illegal aliens born in the United States. This is the legacy of the Liberals for decades of extorting money from citizens, to pay the way for foreigners. 8.5 Million illegal aliens working, as the 15 million American drudge the streets, trying ro feed their families.

Ex Speaker Pelosi has been shepherded out of her contented position as House speaker and all other politicians are under the gun to be carefully watched and any deviation and spat out in 1220, if not committed to the people. The Dream Act or any form of another Amnesty must be confronted by an iron fist. Any form of Amnesty will attach access to our Social Security, even for those who have paid nothing into the system. With Amnesty comes chain migration of family members; mothers, fathers and siblings bring all there ills; the sick and infirm that taxpayers will be further burdened with. This is an absolute travesty against the American people, who have paid towards their retirement all their lives. All Tea Party newcomers going to Washington will be carefully analyzed for their voting on issues that does not conform to our will.

They will be dislodged from their seat if they vote during a Lame Duck bill to do with given criminal foreigners a pass to Amnesty. America is drowned in debt from previous administrations that has spiraled to an amount of 14 Trillion dollars, and now the Senate leaders Reid and Boxer wants to give criminals— Amnesty? That the Heritage Foundation has stated it will add a cost 2.6 Trillion to settle them indefinitely. Various issues will be either repealed or revised according to the Tea Parties platform. To return empowerment back to states and shrink the Federal Government, which means giving education policies back to states, and reduce bloated entities such as the Department of Education. This should be invested in the schools and parents, not run by the federal authorities or layer upon layer of civil administrators.

Over the years both parties have taken the money from the people, to fund irrational earmarks that are become a serious problem today and must exempt from any new laws enacted. Perhaps introduce a flat tax, so nobody is exempt from paying taxes on any item purchased and reduce the size of a bureaucratic nightmare called the IRS (Internal Revenue Service.) The stimulus- tarps and special overhauls of financial institutions will stop now, same as special trade privileges for China. Hasn’t anyone notice that they are building a giant war machine on our dollars exported. All free trade agreements must be renegotiated or we better still, withdraw from the humiliating genuflecting to foreign countries. Over abundance of foreign trade has wrecked this countries manufacturing commerce. My spouse has a habit of buying cheap goods, made in cheap labor countries that break down or never work as promised. Start loaning money to small and medium business enterprises, as they are the job generators--banks, financial investment firms or the auto industry. Start taxing all good coming into the country and use other deterrents to stop the importation of cheap labor goods; lordy! we don't even produce our own televisions anymore?

The strong arm of Unions such as SEIU is stealing the lifeblood from taxpayers, with huge pension agreements especially in Liberal extremist States like California. These Unions are full of Marxists and violent people, who will do anything to get what they want. The example is Jerry Browns, and ultra Liberal Senators like Boxer, a senior citizen that will also kowtow to the Unions and drain money from the State. Under Jerry Brown California will stagnate as he is another demented Liberal that because of millions of dollars in Union dues, provided to him will be indebted to the Union mob. It’s almost laughable that he has been reinvented, after the years when he almost bankrupt Oakland. In the 1960's Los Angeles—a Sanctuary City--was never the open toilet it has become now, full of illegal aliens, criminal nationals and the likelihood of cells of hidden terrorists.

The Tea Party and is propagating membership has much to do, in voicing their opinion of how to train their legislators in fighting the political slime along the Capitol beltway. The battle to return America to its roots has just began, the revisiting the priceless words of the constitution and making this nation great again. No more of this garbage spread by the liberal fringe groups to our schools, to our young. Place political correctness doctrine in the garbage fill, where it belongs. Free Speech is what it is--FREE SPEECH, given to us by our founding fathers, not the communist’s insurgency in our society. As for Voter fraud--nobody has truly investigated the chicanery that happened around the country, specifically in Nevada. But the voting system needs updating so only real citizens can vote without the worry of strange goings on in Polling place; absentee ballots are not safeguarded enough in California, Nevada or border States.

[Robin]

You could probably do a pretty quick test of your hypothesis using the New York Times's Twitter tracker. By its reading, Carly Fiorina generated much more Twitter traffic, yet still lost to Barbara Boxer. Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman looked roughly equal there.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/us/politics/2010-twitter-candidates.html

[pdd3517]

Of course Twitter isn't a reliable tool. There are more people who DON'T use Twitter than do and most voting adults do not use Twitter. Facebook, Twitter, or any other social networking tool should not be viewed as a source for deciding anything of true importance.

[John M.]

This is what passes for journalism at the LA Times these days...analyzing tweets. Embarrassing.