The Oscar race: Isn't anyone picking 'The Hangover' for best picture?

In politics -- even with pollsters hounding voters every day of the week -- whenever you look around at election time, you can find a stunning upset in the making, as we all saw recently in the Massachusetts Senate race. So why doesn't it happen in Hollywood at Oscar time? Do members of the motion picture academy really have such drearily predictable artistic tastes that any half-bright Oscar blogger can pretty much predict what films they'll nominate?

With the Oscar nominations announced Tuesday, I was pondering this imponderable, especially after reading Vulture Oscar expert Lane Brown's latest predictions for the top Oscar races. I was all set to take issue with Brown's choices, since there's nothing more fun than belittling the crazy conjectures of my favorite breathless Oscar pundits. But after talking to a few Oscar consultants and awards-season veterans, I have to admit that, for the most part, Brown seems to be right on the money, at least in terms of this year's Oscar consensus. 

When it comes to the best-picture category, it's especially intriguing (and I plan to have more to say about this on Oscar day) that no one is betting that any of the year's big studio blockbusters -- outside of "Avatar," of course -- will make the academy top 10. After the obvious favorites -- "Avatar," "The Hurt Locker," "Inglourious Basterds" and "Up in the Air" -- Brown has the same list of films that every Oscar pundit seems to have: "An Education," "District 9," "Invictus," "Precious," "A Serious Man" and "Up." Though "District 9" made a lot of money, it was an independently financed film, not one made through the studio system. But no one is picking "Star Trek," "The Hangover" or "The Blind Side," just to name a trio of well-received commercial studio hits.

Here are Brown's picks in a few other categories (the favorite listed first), along with my reaction:

Best director: Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker." James Cameron, "Avatar." Quentin Tarantino, "Inglourious Basterds." Lee Daniels, "Precious." Jason Reitman, "Up in the Air."

Hardly anyone disagreed with this list, except for one insider who thought Reitman was losing so much steam that he could drop out in favor of "An Education's" Lone Scherfig.

Best actor: Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart." George Clooney, "Up in the Air." Colin Firth, "A Single Man." Morgan Freeman, "Invictus." Jeremy Renner, "The Hurt Locker."

Pretty much a consensus here too, although there was a bit of sentiment for adding "An Education's" Peter Sarsgaard, although that would probably mean dumping Freeman, which seems unlikely, since its hard to imagine anyone in liberal Hollywood not giving a nomination to an actor playing Nelson Mandela.

Best actress: Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side." Helen Mirren, "The Last Station." Carey Mulligan, "An Education." Gabourey Sidibe, "Precious." Meryl Streep, "Julie & Julia."

No disagreements here. These are the obvious favorites.

Best supporting actor: I'm not even bothering with this one. The race is already over. Christoph Waltz from "Inglourious Basterds" has it all sewn up.

Best supporting actress: Mo'Nique, "Precious." Penelope Cruz, "Nine." Vera Farmiga, "Up in the Air." Anna Kendrick, "Up in the Air." Julianne Moore, "A Single Man."

Dissenters say the reaction to "Nine" was so uniformly lousy that even Cruz may not end up with a nomination. It's also possible that one of the "Up in the Air" actresses might get dropped out of the mix. The most likely replacement: Maggie Gyllenhaal from "Crazy Heart."

If you think all these experts are nuts, feel free to offer up your own choices. It's a free country!

Photo: Oscar statues. Credit: Al Seib / Los Angeles Times

Comments

[Terri]

I would really like to see Melanie Laurent from Basterds added to the mix. Her scene with Waltz in the restaurant and the end deserve some recognition.

[Taylor Vignali]

Fantastic Mr. Fox should get a Best Picture nomination. As well, I would say Sigourney Weaver for Avatar...she carried the entire scientific premise of the movie in her performance.

My final prediction list:
A Serious Man
Avatar
Inglourious Basterds
Up in the Air
Precious
The Hurt Locker
An Education
Up
District 9
Fantastic Mr. Fox

[Lara]

The following has been sent to the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences regarding the Oscar nominations they will be soon be announcing:

***

With respect and with determination, we ask that the Academy not to nominate the James Cameron film Avatar for any Oscar awards this year.

As you know, there was a global protest against Avatar on December 18, 2009 because of the film's exclusion of gay, lesbian and transgender characters. And because of the film's apparent denial of Evolution and because of its heterocentric suppositions.

Diversity, tolerance and health care are basic human rights and Avatar directly and indirectly assaulted those rights. To promote the cause of diversity and to send a message of tolerance we ask the Academy to ignore Avatar during its nomination process. By doing this, you would be telling the creators of Avatar and others, that it wrong to exclude people on the basis of their sexuality. That tolerance requires a rational and scientific basis. That we must celebrate diversity.

If you decide to nominate Avatar for any award we will have no choice but to speak out and to protest. We will do this on March 7, 2010. We will protest to give voice to those who have been silenced by hate and intolerance. We will speak out to defend our rights and to defend our President who working to promote the change we seek.

We thank you for your time.

[Gus Levy]

I would like to add my loud and unequivocal support for the aforementioned letter which was sent to the Academy as noted by Lara below. It is a travesty beyond any measurable scale that the movie Avatar did not have a lengthy lesbian sex scene...or two: This movie which is a seminal breakthrough in 3-D technology had one golden chance to ensure that all lesbians and most heterosexual men would have the pleasurable experience of contemplating the emotional impact of two human beings connecting at the highest and sweatiest levels that human beings can connect - with and without the use of various devices. It is clearly a conspiracy headed by Cameron and the other heterocentric mongoloids to ensure that lesbianism and 3-D technology are never allowed to be witnessed by the movie-going public...Shame on the Academy! Shame on the Academy!!!