After the NBC late-night bloodbath: What is Conan O'Brien's future?

I've been following the NBC late-night meltdown just like everyone else, watching all the jokes about it on TV--Jimmy Kimmel's sharp-elbowed appearance on Jay Leno being the highlight--along with the kibitzing from network elders, ranging from Fred Silverman--who heaped blame on NBC Universal chief Jeff Zucker--to NBC sports guru Dick Ebersol, who trashed Conan O'Brien, calling him "chicken-hearted and gutless" for taking a few jabs at Leno. Even if it isn't absolutely official, it looks like Conan is finally a free man, getting a big payoff while Leno gets to return (after the Winter Olympics) to his old 11:35 p.m. time slot.

(And speaking of big payoffs, I can only wonder how many office pools have sprouted up in the past few weeks, with over and under bets on how long Zucker, who got everyone into this fine mess in the first place, keeps his job after the Comcast takeover is completed.)

But what about Conan? He clearly emerges with a big reservoir of sympathy as the poor guy (yes, the extremely highly paid poor guy) who got the shaft, losing his show after barely a couple of months on the job. But as some of my TV-steeped colleagues have shrewdly pointed out, where can he possibly go to replicate the kind of late-night talk show he's been doing for years? ABC has already said it's not interested in hiring him. HBO isn't prepared to get into the late-night talk show racket. And Fox, the network that normally would be most aggressive in taking advantage of a competitor's misfortune, has a lot of issues to overcome, starting with a huge lack of enthusiasm from its affiliates--who see a Conan show as a losing game--as well as the financial complications of footing the hefty bill for hiring O'Brien along with settling out the costly contracts for reruns on Fox's TV stations.

This creates quite a bind for Conan's team of WME talent agent advisers. They've sprung him from NBC, getting a big payoff, but where does he go from here? With the late-night landscape already crammed with talk shows, O'Brien (to use an analogy from his favorite sport) is like the slugging first baseman who becomes a free agent in a year where there are already loads of great first basemen on the market. 

Whatever he does, he's going to have to take a serious pay cut. Since that's a given, I'd like to see him go to where his audience already is instead of asking them to find him on an unfamiliar outlet. It's no secret that Conan's audience is at least a decade younger than Leno or Letterman's audience. We also know that the younger the TV viewer, the more likely they are to be watching cable TV, not the cobwebby programming available on network TV.

So if I were Conan, since I have to take a pay cut anyway, I'd be focusing on cable. And I'd also want to go somewhere where I had a decent lead-in for my show, not to mention a lead-in that might help me hang on to the younger audience that has been deserting TV in droves. Get my drift? If there were ever a perfect setup for O'Brien, it would be Comedy Central, which already has a powerhouse double bill of Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert. Conan would be a great fit following their shows, inheriting a small (by network standards) but intensely loyal audience of viewers primed for his droll, irony-filled comedy routines.

The money wouldn't be the same, but I think it would be a liberating, low-pressure experience for O'Brien, who looks like he could use a break from the high-stakes ratings death match of network late-night TV. Instead of being told to tone down his act and pretend to be an old fogy, as NBC was asking him to do on "The Tonight Show," he could cut loose and get back to his roots, when he was was the most inventive, loose-limbed funnyman on TV. It's time to let Conan be Conan again. 

Photo: Conan O'Brien. Photo credit: Frederick M. Brown / Getty Images

Comments

[Ed Damm]

One problem Comedy central is owned by NBC and he was already on that network in re run fashion about a year before he started the tonight show

[Dirk]

I hadn't even thought of him going to CC. But it makes perfect sense.

[John]

The Tonight Show had it's own feel from Carson all the way to Leno. When Conan took over the seat, the Tonight Show basically became the same shtick as his old Conan Obrian show. It was like watching the Conan Obrian show only earlier. You can't be the Conan Obrian show when you're now the Tonight Show. He should have left the Obrian shtick behind and developed new material for the Tonight Show. Obrian's comedy was better suited for a later night audience. For example, Triumph The Insult Comic Dog humping a real dog. I don't think it worked as well at the earlier time slot. I think the network thought they could bring the harder edged Conan Obrian show comedy to the Tonight Show but realized it wasn't working. The Tonight Show is such an iconic name in late night talk, and it has such a long-term brand, the show itself couldn't be canceled. Leno's show probably wasn't doing so well and probably destined to be canceled so the network probably thought they should just to back to what was working and probably offered Jay his old job back.

[Barnacle Bob]

I agree with your call on Comedy Central. You sure you aren't a consultant to WME? The Networks are a booby-trap for otherwise intelligent writers and performers and their handlers ($). Conan O'brien and Joss Whedon are the latest casualties.

[Phil]

Here's hoping Conan just disappears. He's the lamest act on TV since Joey Bishop. No talent, no charisma, no cachet, nothing. Well, nothing but a gawky empty suit. Conan has never been worth a network slot. One wonders that he even has a career. But good for Conan. If he's careful, that severance package can be enough to live on for the rest of his unemployed life.

[funkeodor]

Isn't Comedy Central owned by NBC????

[JBGJRESQ]

Good for Conan. A cool $40 mil will be enough to hole him over during his job hunt. I always felt he performed under the shado of Jay Leno who has a different (and I hate to admit) somewhat dated style -- more akin to Johnny carson than the more contemporary show hosts and comedians. There will be opportunities in due time.

[Ian F]

i´ve watched both Jay and Conan over the years here in Europe on NBC Europe...and i liked them both; Jay for his easy-going, pleasant, mature (NOT fogey) manner, and Conan for his crazy, irreverent stuff...i do NOT, however, like what Conan has been forced to be on the Tonight Show

[melba]

I agree cable TV is the place for Conan O'brien. I would watch him if he was
on at 10:00 CST.

[AmbroseKalifornia]

Fantastic idea. Tell EVERYONE.