That's what the United States figures to get at the March World Figure Skating Championships.
That's all that the results -- and quality of skating -- from the U.S. Championships that ended Sunday would augur.
One medal would be the same as last year, when the outlook was better, even if you don't include eventual Olympic champion Evan Lysacek (who skipped worlds) in the equation.
It would be the fourth time in five years dating to 2007 that Team USA has won just one medal. That lone bronze medal in 2007 had been the lowest U.S. total at worlds since 1994.
The difference is the one medal this year could be special, since Meryl Davis and Charlie White, who earned the sole prize (silver) in 2010, have a shot at the first ice dance gold in U.S. history.
Whether they can get it should be clearer after next month's Four Continents Championship, where reigning world and Olympic champions Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir of Canada plan a season debut delayed by her injury.
And here is the outlook in the other three disciplines:
MEN -- The story here will be whether the United States can hold onto a third spot for the 2012 worlds. To do that, the top two U.S. finishes have to add up to 13 or fewer points.
It doesn't look good.
Since he did not come out of retirement until October, new U.S. champion Ryan Bradley has not done any international events this season. The last memory international judges have of Bradley is that of an injured skater who staggered to 18th at the 2010 worlds. He was 15th at his other world appearance in 2007.
While Bradley's victory at nationals was deserved, his free skate was sloppy, and he skated much of it at about 2 miles per hour. The two months between now and worlds should give him a chance to build stamina that was lacking because he began serious training so late.
The other two members of the team for Tokyo, world meet rookies Richard Dornbush and Ross Miner, could surprise if a) each feels as little pressure as he did as a podium longshot at nationals; and b) each skates an error-free program as he did at nationals.
Realistically, though, either would succeed by breaking into the top 10 at worlds.
After all, Dornbush still was on the Junior Grand Prix circuit this season, and Miner finished seventh and ninth in his two senior Grand Prix appearances, where each field included only about one-third of the world's top men.
WOMEN -- The U.S. medal drought in the women's event at worlds, four years, already is the longest since Hedy Stenuf's bronze in 1938 ended a seven-year shutout.