Four Continents skate doesn't boost U.S. slim medal chances for worlds

So what did the Four Continents Championships reveal about U.S. chances at next month's World Figure Skating Championships in Tokyo?

Precious little more than what I already knew after last month's U.S. Championships, and that wasn't good.

The results from the Taipei meet that ended Saturday only reinforced my feeling that ice dancers Meryl Davis and Charlie White will be the lone U.S. medalists at worlds.  Davis and White took Four Continents gold in a walkover after reigning world and Olympic champions Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir of Canada withdrew after winning the short dance because Virtue had a thigh injury.

I'll make a few more observations, now that I have had time to look at some of the Four Continents video posted by the dedicated fans on the newsgroup Figure Skating Universe. 

Those fans snagged the video from Asian television networks, since there was not even live Internet coverage of the event in the United States.   Shame on U.S. Figure Skating for not spending the pittance it would have cost to get Four Continents live feed rights for its own web property, icenetwork.com.

The top finishers of every event at U.S. nationals but men's singles went to Four Continents, where the opposition included many of the leading skaters from China, Japan and Canada -- but none from Europe, which has its own championships.

Women's singles had the best field, including two skaters with world titles (Miki Ando and Mao Asada of Japan), three with U.S. titles (Mirai Nagasu, Rachael Flatt, Alissa Czisny)  and the reigning Canadian champion (Cynthia Phaneuf).  So I'm confining my comments to that event.

Both Ando and Asada skated impressively and deserved the top two places, although Ando's utter emotionlessness in the free skate was in jarring discord with the romanticism, intensity and passion of her music, Grieg's "A Minor Piano Concerto."

Reigning world champion Asada showed she has recaptured her jumping skills after a decision to rework technique under a new coach had turned the Grand Prix portion of her season into a messy exercise.  Not only that, but Asada's feathery footwork sequence in the long program perfectly captured the essence of her music, Lizst's "Dreams of Love."

Nagasu, who finished third, made it abundantly clear she is the best U.S. woman skater, her third place at nationals notwithstanding. 

How Nagasu must rue the brain cramps on two no-brainer elements at the end of the free skate at nationals, a spin she botched so thoroughly it was worth zero points on the scoresheet and a double-axel jump so poorly executed it earned just 2.63.

Philip Hersh: World Figure Skating Championships unlikely to produce a big haul for U.S.

One medal.

That's what the United States figures to get at the March World Figure Skating Championships.

That's all that the results -- and quality of skating -- from the U.S. Championships that ended  Sunday would augur.

One medal would be the same as last year, when the outlook was better, even if you don't include eventual Olympic champion Evan Lysacek  (who skipped worlds) in the equation.

It would be the fourth time in five years dating to 2007 that Team USA has won just one medal.  That lone bronze medal in 2007 had been the lowest U.S. total at worlds since 1994.

The difference is the one medal this year could be special, since Meryl Davis and Charlie White, who earned the sole prize (silver) in 2010,  have a shot at the first ice dance gold in U.S. history.

Whether they can get it should be clearer after next month's Four Continents Championship, where reigning world and Olympic champions Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir of Canada plan a season debut delayed by her injury.

If Davis and White can't beat the Canadians at Four Continents , it's unlikely they will do it at worlds a month later in Tokyo.

And here is the outlook in the other three disciplines:

MEN -- The story here will be whether the United States can hold onto a third spot for the 2012 worlds.  To do that, the top two U.S. finishes have to add up to 13 or fewer points.

It doesn't look good.

Since he did not come out of retirement until October, new U.S. champion Ryan Bradley has not done any international events this season.  The last memory international judges have of Bradley is that of an injured skater who staggered to 18th at the 2010 worlds.  He was 15th at his other world appearance in 2007.

While Bradley's victory at nationals was deserved, his free skate was sloppy, and he skated much of it at about 2 miles per hour.  The two months between now and worlds should give him a chance to build stamina that was lacking because he began serious training so late.

The other two members of the team for Tokyo, world meet rookies Richard Dornbush and Ross Miner, could surprise if a) each feels as little pressure as he did as a podium longshot at nationals; and b) each skates an error-free program as he did at nationals.

Realistically, though, either would succeed by breaking into the top 10 at worlds.

After all, Dornbush still was on the Junior Grand Prix circuit this season, and Miner finished seventh and ninth in his two senior Grand Prix appearances, where each field included only about one-third of the world's top men.

WOMEN -- The U.S. medal drought in the women's event at worlds, four years, already is the longest since Hedy Stenuf's bronze in 1938 ended a seven-year shutout.

Will the top three U.S. women skaters still be there in 2014?

A couple hours after the women's final Saturday at the U.S. Figure Skating Championships, I was in a group of longtime figure skating writers discussing what we might expect between now and the next Olympics, and one of my colleagues said, "I don't think any of the top three will be in Sochi."

My first reaction was that it sounded ridiculous that neither Alissa Czisny nor Rachael Flatt nor Mirai Nagasu would make the 2014 Olympic team.

The longer we talked, though, the less implausible it seemed.

Why?

First of all, none of the three medalists at nationals in the year after the 2006 Olympics -- Kimmie Meissner, Emily Hughes and Czisny -- made it to Vancouver in 2010.  Meissner got injured, and both Hughes (ninth) and Czisny (10th) were also-rans at last year's nationals, when the Olympic team was selected.

Nagasu, still a junior-level skater in 2007, and Flatt, who debuted at senior nationals that year but was a junior internationally, made the 2010 Olympics, finishing fourth and seventh, then seventh and ninth, respectively, at worlds.