Are the Angels really 'baseball's luckiest team'?

Are the Angels really "baseball's luckiest team"?

That's what the Wall Street Journal's Darren Everson wrote two weeks ago, in one of many articles this year arguing that the team's run differential -- which normally would produce an 88-win club, not a 100-win juggernaut -- shows that Mike Scioscia's success is a matter of monstrous luck. "The Angels," Everson wrote, "just might be the luckiest team of all time."

Let's leave aside the underlying argument about whether overshooting their Pythagorean expectation is a matter of luck, repeatable skill or perhaps roster construction and the timing of injuries. I'm more interested in the apparently one-to-one correlation many number-crunching baseball analysts have between exceeding run-differential expectations and "luck." After all, if you think about it, there are many other broad categories of luck over an 162-game season. My list would include, in order:

1) Injuries.

2) A bunch of guys having career or fluke seasons all at once.

3) Happened to play in a soft division.

4) Had a better record than run differential would indicate.

Were the Angels lucky with injuries? Not particularly. Their No. 2 starter missed the whole season, their opening-day shortstop is out until 2009, their .300-hitting second baseman missed 70 games, and the minor league infield depth chart was emptied out on the big league roster.

Career seasons? Maybe Mike Napoli, but he was hitting his usual .220/.337/.485 until game 152, whereupon he went totally bonkers for 10 days (and hopefully more). Ervin Santana had a strong comeback year, but 16-7 with a 3.49 ERA isn't exactly unheard of for a 25-year-old who went 16-8 with a 4.28 ERA at age 23. Joe Saunders had gone 15-8 in 31 spot starts the previous two years; he went 17-8 in 31 full starts in 2008 (though he did shave more than a run off his ERA).

Really, the only player you can say performed at an are-you-kidding-me level was Jose Arredondo.

Soft division? Yes, for the first time in Scioscia's reign, the American League West did not at least tie for the best record in the AL. This may indeed have been a lucky thing, but cutting both ways: It's easier to beat up on mediocrities, but you also become a better competitor when you have better competition.

So were the Angels baseball's "luckiest team"? Until I see their smartypants critics introduce other measures of "luck," while demonstrating to me beyond a shadow of doubt that Scioscia's three-year run of exceeding run differentials is truly an unrepeatable skill, then I'm going to vote no. But however you slice it, the team's all-time best record gave them the time to heal injuries and set up the playoff rotation. In that sense, I'd much rather be lucky than good.

(Editor's note: For Dodgers updates, check out The Times' Blue Notes blog.)

-- Matt Welch

Matt Welch is editor in chief of Reason.

Top photo: Los Angeles Angels outfielder Torii Hunter talks to the crowd with a rally monkey on his back during the postseason rally at Angel Stadium. Credit: Kirby Lee / Image of Sport-US Presswire Lower photo: Torii Hunter talks with bench coach Ron Roenicke during batting practice Tuesday as the team prepares to play the Boston Red Sox in the American League divisional playoff series today at Angel Stadium. Credit: Alex Gallardo / Los Angeles Times.

Comments

[Jason Davis]

Matt,

Maybe someone can discuss the atrocious broadcast crew last night? Mark Napoli? And, HK hasn't gone by Howard in how many years? I expected a slight bias, but Buck Martinez rambled incessantly about his (possibly more than) man-crush on John Lester, and how great the champs were, with very little knowledge or comments on the Angels. After the first pitch Vlad saw, popping up in the 1st, the FIRST words out of Buck's mouth, as if he had it scripted and a bit eager to say was, "Well, it looks like Vlad's post season struggles continue." I was disgusted, and I think a more objective and talented crew is necessary. I'm sure there is more, but I ended up muting the last half of the game...

[Greg M.]

I totally agree with Jason, the announce crew for TBS last night was atrociously biased towards the Red Sox. I also hit the mute button, not being able to stomach the blatant preference for the East Coasters. This was supposed to be a "national" broadcast, not some home town cable feed. Cary, Martinez, Sager and TBS should be ashamed of their perfomance and should make a concerted effort to deliver what baseball fans deserve.

[Matt Welch]

Fellas, I largely agree, and I'm usually not one to complain too loud about East Coast bias & all that. But the way I look at it is this: Most broadcasters are lousy, and the Red Sox are the World Champs, so you have to just kinda get the Red Sox off the table, if you will....

[Richard Bennett]

Let's look at it this way: this Angels team had the best won-lost record in the history of Anaheim baseball, but would you say they're really the most talented bunch ever to grace the Big A? I saw them play several times in Oakland this year, and they weren't nearly as intimidating as some other Anaheim crews I've seen. The addition of Texeira made a big difference for them, but they benefited from the bad year everybody else in the division had.

Only three players did well in game 1 against Boston - Tex, Hunter, and Mr. Anderson - and several were downright awful, such as Vlad, Shields, Chone, and Junior. Scioscia's over-aggressive baserunning regime ran them out of the game, and he was too slow to pull the plug on Shields when he clearly wasn't fooling anybody.

For this team to get back in the series, Scioscia's gonna have to throw out his Dodger playbook and let his boys play some ball. But don't set your hopes too high, Matt, this isn't one your better teams.

[theprideofhc]

Richard, Vlad went 2-4 which I will take considering his post season performances of years past. It wasn't Scoscia's "over aggressive baserunning regime" that killed us, Vlad flat out ran through the 3rd base coach's sign to stop at 2nd. Regardless, the bottom of the order and Figgins played miserably and need to step up in game 2.

Go Halos!!!

[Matt Welch]

Richard -- We played strangely flat against the A's this year, and basically stomped every other team (especially the Sox), except for the Rays. I *do* think this is a better team -- deeper, and with more weapons and better front-line pitching -- than the 2002 team or any of the other Scioscia clubs. Injuries forced a lot of premature Brandon Wood ABs & such (which will come in handy *next* year), but this offense can hurt from 7 lineup spots, the infield defense is terrific, and the playoff roster is as solid as anything I've seen. Maybe '82 comes close, but those dudes were pretty old and fragile, and the rotation didn't have any Lackeys.

[Richard Bennett]

True, Vladdy got twice as many hits in game 1 as he did in the whole playoff series against the White Sox, but that bonehead baserunning gaffe was a knife in the Angels' heart. And yes, he ran through a sign, but he only tried for third because of Scioscia's coaching. The dude doesn't run too well, does he?

The Angels seem to be weak at corner outfileld, on the left side of the infield, and in middle relief. This is more deficits than they can expect to overcome this year, so I'm already handicapping the Billy Rays vs the Phillies.

[Jason Davis]

Hahaha. Richard, you are basing your information on just a few observances. Our middle relief is anything but weak. Why don't you relook the stats concerning Oliver, Shields, Arredondo, and Frankie again. Jepsen was pretty good, O'Day started out very strong before pitching hurt. Speier? Next year is another year, and he's been terrific for several years prior to this one (though he's not on the ALDS roster). I think they pretty much dominate, even if they are sometimes a bit erratic to watch. Nice ERA's, nice K/BB ratio's, K/IP ratio's, AND very very solid BAA's. What's not to like?

Whether or not they bring their "A game" for the playoffs is debatable. We've proven all last year and this year that our ENTIRE infield is strong, regardless of how many HR's come from the left.

If Vlad DH's, then RF will be weak. GA is anything but weak, against even the best loogy out there... I say Kendry is ready, and that solid line drive off Papelbuns in the 9th was a good indicator....

[Jason Davis]

matt,

howie didn't double in the 9th. you heard it here last. we need a new 2B.

[sammy p.]

i am so disappionted