NBC's 10 p.m. Jay Leno move is fraught with risk

With its decision to give Jay Leno a block of prime time Monday through Friday, NBC has essentially given up on scripted programming at 10 p.m.

This is a noteworthy shift. In the past, the 10 p.m. time slot has yielded such legendary shows as "Hill Street Blues," "L.A. Law," and "ER," which will wrap up its 15-year run in March. But as Channel Island  reported  earlier this year, the networks have mostly bombed with new 10 p.m. dramas this fall. NBC has already canceled the costly Christian Slater caper "My Own Worst Enemy," and ABC will move the cop drama "Life on Mars" to another night in search of more viewers.

The problem is that scripted dramas are expensive to produce -- episode costs routinely exceed $2 million these days -- and face increasingly tough competition from cable networks. Leno's show, which reportedly will be very similar to his version of  "The Tonight Show," will look like an exercise in thrift compared with a dramatic series that employs a large cast and writing staff.

And yet NBC's latest move is fraught with risk. For starters, if Leno's new program flops -- and remember, it will be competing not against "Nightline" and David Letterman but rather with the likes of "CSI: Miami" and "CSI: NY" -- the network will be stuck with five hours per week of low-rated programming that may be difficult to get rid of.   

Second, the network is going to have to find new homes for the current series that reside at 10 p.m., including the popular "Law & Order: SVU." Moving an existing hit is in itself dicey and can unleash a domino-like effect of lowered ratings across the schedule. And the crowding of NBC's remaining dramas, presumably into the 9 p.m. time slot, will reduce the need for new scripted one-hour series to perhaps one per season, if that (which may be exactly what NBC Universal's profit-minded boss Jeff Zucker wants to hear). The message to agents representing top writers is clear: If you have hot material, you might want to take it to a place where the executives are a little hungrier for it.

And then there's the Conan factor. A major impetus behind the Leno deal was the desire not to lose the host to a competitor next year, when "The Tonight Show" is taken over by Conan O'Brien. But the latest shift has now put O'Brien in an awkward position. Not long after O'Brien takes over the "Tonight" franchise, his predecessor will in effect be promoted to prime time, doing essentially the same show he's doing now. That will put even more pressure on O'Brien to put his own stamp on "Tonight."

And if O'Brien's ratings sink below what Leno was doing behind the late-night desk? NBC just handed him one heck of an excuse.

-- Scott Collins 

 

 

Comments

[vm]

The author has ignored the (pass) "time" aspect of viewership. Most habitual watchers of TV ( and they are the ones they should be concerned about - discerning viewers will watch what THEY want) merely tune in and flip channels until they find something they like. And they repeat the process.

For these viewers, the 11 PM slot doesn't compete with the 10 PM slot ( unless they discovered time travel). So Leno will not compete with O'brien.

Does anyone watch Law and order anymore ? Or CSI ? CSI was a slick show to being with but it looks so hackneyed now that I cannot bear myself to watch it for a couple of years now.

Popularity ratings of TV shows are WAY overblown. The ratings system is rigged. TV shows cannot be interesting if quantity replaces quality as has been the case. People CANNOT come up with a decent script for a new episode every week. Creativity does NOT work that way. What we see on TV are the same old cliches playing over and over.

[Frank Stein]

I heard NBC and Leno decided to take him prime time and I thought to myself, brilliant. I assumed it would be one night per week, a vartiety show like Ed Sullivan and they would leverage his everyman wit to reopen what Rosie tried but failed when she kept interjecting her own issues. Variety remains an open window but no one seems to have the guts to step up.

Meanwhile, they plan to push Leno to 10 doing pretty much the same old. If they think we are goint to watch that, they are fools beyond all comprehension. They think we all tune out at 11 because it is time to go to bed. They have never seen that they make 11 the time to go to bed because most of us don't want to watch talky talky - the mononlogue is good and then we go.

And they wonder why cable is succeeding. A couple of suggestions. The first cable channel to put a decently written soap of a Dallas quality at 10 or 11 will steal the time spot. Same goes with a variety show that has a boomer hit, for 10. Or one with a family hit for 8. Geeze guys, you broadcast channels are like Detroit. Making the cheapest thing, short term and never paying attention to more and more of us buying elsewhere. Get a clue.

[A Medici]

If all else fails, thank goodness we have the Seinfeld reruns at 10 pm.

[sixsteps]

previous commenter called csi and law and order "hackneyed now". i don't agree. i think that some of the best work on television is to be found in 'csi: paducah' and especially on 'law and order: jaywalking patrol'.

i can see why the networks don't want to take a chance on new work when the old is so good.

[Gerrit]

Aha! Zucker and Siverman strike again - further dragging NBC into the morass in the name of profit margins over ratings success.

It is a sign of poor management - when you can't build your business, you manage it into the ground until there is nothing left. Why? Because all you can think to do - is cut costs to increase margins. Business management has come to NBC and artistic creativity has made a quick exit (stage left). In Zucker and Silverman, NBC has their own in-house Carl Icahn.

I call this 'Kudzu Programming'. Due to a lack of fresh ideas, you take what looks to be working for you and let it creep into adjoining time slots. Witness the Today Show's creep into the daytime schedule and now Late Night's creep into Primetime. Kudzu: it looks verdantly pretty but it kills everything it touches. Kudzu Programming: pretty much the same.

Also in the press conference, they kept saying that the move is 'DVR-proof'! I'm not sure that is good news because people only DVR something they want to watch.

As well with this move, NBC creates 50 hours of programming a week that they probably won't be able to sell for rebroadcasting.

God's in his heaven - he's just not at NBC.

[Ricardo]

Yes, If I were Conan, I would feel a bit of discomfort about now. From "I'm getting the Tonight Show and now will be Top Banana" to "What the Heck just happened"?? Conan's Banana Status will still be Second. As long as the President is actively serving up the same material, why stay up for the Vice President....and this says nothing about how Mr Fallon will take all this.