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'American Idol' odds-maker says it’s sayonara Syesha Mercado

Syeshamercado Nobody wants to miss out on the fun of “American Idol,” least of all the Vegas odds-makers.  That’s why Johnny Avello, director of the Race and Sports Book at Wynn Las Vegas, has come out with his own predictions for the fates of the top four. 

According to Avello, David Archuleta is leading the race, with odds of 6 to 5, David Cook is trailing Archuleta, with 3-to-2 odds, and Jason Castro follows, with 10 to 1 odds. The last woman standing, Syesha Mercado, has the weakest chance of winning, with odds of 12 to 1.

Avello is proud of his “Idol” predictions thus far. He’s been at it since the first season, and he’s never far off. “The only real surprise was Taylor Hicks,” confessed Avello.   

As for this season, Avello said, “if there’s a surprise for me, it’s David [Cook] so far. I had him down in the ninth spot.”

Hooked on horse racing since age 5 and naturally gifted with numbers, making odds came easily to Avello. When he’s not toiling over the fates of the two Davids, Avello is making odds for sporting events, award shows, horse races and other reality shows, such as “Survivor.” He even chats with Us Weekly about the odds that various Hollywood couples will get hitched.

For Avello, watching “Idol” is all in a day’s work, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a fan. “My favorite is David Archuleta,” declared Avello.  “He doesn’t make mistakes, he’s always on key and his arrangements are good.”

Who knew Archuleta was scoring with the Vegas odds-maker demographic?

-- Stephanie Lysaght

(Photo courtesy Getty Images)

Comments () | Archives (9)

Interesting, but I disagree. I believe Castro will go this week. Syesha, as the only female left, will have a constituency of her own, and Castro and the Davids will have to split the "vote for a male" constituency 3 ways, and Castro will be on the short end of that vote (by a long shot).

Winning AI is about getting people to vote multiple times for you. David A and Jason C have fans that will do that for them. That leaves the most talented of the bunch David C and Syesha. Syesha is the only woman and the only African American left. There is always a woman left in the finals, and the the time there wasn't, it was Reuben vs. Clay, so one not so manly man and an African American man. Shocker prediction for this week---David Cook is leaving us this week! Hey Chris Daughtry came in fourth too and he was a rocker. The multiple vote thing is the only explanation for the lame Taylor Hicks, his soul patrol must have got calluses on there fingers dialing.

Archie for the win. Hopefully he wins
go Archie!

I gotta give props to soothsayer for the bold prediction on Cook. I think you're wrong, but the logic is sound and it's a bold, contrarian pick. I really think Cook is going all the way, but I've softened on David A. since I found out his dad works in the tech industry (like me) and I read the first fairly positive story about the guy who, until now, has been portrayed as a but of an obsessive nutbag. Check it: http://blog.channelinsider.com/content001/channel_chatter/american_idols_david_archuleta_has_one_lucky_var_dad.html

I'm thinking that the "Rock 'n Roll" theme may not work to David Cook's advantage. His worst performance in the Top 12 came on the Inspirational Themes night (the week of Idol Gives Back). He sang a song from his favorite band Our Lady Peace, and his so-called originality seemed lacking while in his own genre. I'm sure his most rabid fans loved it, but the general public probably did not. He is going to have to make a choice for tomorrow night: He'll either stay true to himself and his hard core fans, venturing outside the box and risking getting voted off. Or, he'll take the soft sell approach and do a "lite" version, thus probably capturing more votes but setting himself up as a sell-out. Rock 'n Roll night could actually end up working to the advantage of the other remaining Idols. This time they will be the ones taking on a particular genre and shaping it to showcase their own styles.

Please don't let DavidA go home this week. I love him! He's so talented, humble and respectful! DavidA for the win!

Glad to see David's odds are tracking with a pro like they are tracking with us.

David's musicality and rare interpretation of the song & music by his voice has mass appeal. He has a new sound and a new interpretation of music. His music invites you in, to enjoy & relax--a natural high, awash in endorphins.

The entertainment media hasn't known what do do with this kid b/c it isn't cook to like a nice, kind, humble kid so they have taken the easier road and bashed and lampooned him at every juncture. He has run the negative media gauntlet since late February with a poise and courage rare for a 17 year old. He has already won one victory. Bravo David.

BTW, I am a music/communications major at a university. A lot of my firends in the collegial music world (those 20-somethings that people say don't get David A0 are looking forward to DA's first album. Maybe the odds makers know something about David's fanbase that the media keeps disregarding?

If I was a gambler I'd bet on David Cook. Once Jason and Syesha leave, their fans are more likely to vote "against Archuleta". Plus David Cook is both mainstream and edgy enough to gather support from a variety of people. He and Jason are my favorites since the beginning of this season. I also liked that crazy kid Josiah Leming that got booted off on Hollywood Week for being too much of a prima dona.

Like the judges, this guy has blinders on. Archie never makes a mistake? What about flubbing the lyrics on multiple occasions and no comment from the judges? Arrangements good? Sweet Carolyne was excruciating. David A has a lovely voice but is kinda bland and overhyped. If Jason gives a good performance his fans will power him into the top 3. I would love to see a David Cook/Jason Castro finale. That would be the most exciting and unexpected pair of unique performers to grace the Idol stage.


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