No. 2 with a Bullock -- Sandy's Oscar chances rise

Friday night I got a call from Roger Durling, who is the artistic director of the Santa Barbara International Film Festival and a very knowledgeable and film-savvy guy. In other words, he knows what's good and what isn't. He had just wandered out of  a showing of John Lee Hancock's new film,"The Blind Side," which opened this weekend No. 2 at the box office, and said he was "BLOWN AWAY in capital letters"  by Sandra Bullock's performance.He repeatedly asked me why more people/pundits had not been touting her for awards this season (other than this writer).  

I must confess it's been awfully lonely at the Buzzmeter. I remain the only one of the 20 pundits predicting that Sandra Bullock will be one of the five Best Actress Oscar nominees. I stand by this more than ever now that the movie has opened with an over-performing $34.6 million (Bullock's best ever) and a very rare A + Cinemascore rating. That's especially impressive in the wake of the tsunami-like $140-million debut of "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" (brooding, boring, bad -- sorry Twihards).

On Nov. 4, I wrote in a blog item that drew more comments pro and con than any so far this season, that word of mouth would likely propel this inspiring movie into the winners circle at the box office and by extension launch the previously unbuzzed-about Bullock into an awards season contender slot.

Considering the commercial nature of  "Blind Side," critical response has been decent, with a 71% fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes and mostly praise for Bullock. The Times review by Betsy Sharkey pointed out the triumphant nature of her performance, but there were also a few naysayers, like A.O. Scott of the New York Times.

Still there is room in the Best Actress race -- with four likely nominees being Meryl Streep, Gabourey Sidibe, Carey Mulligan and Helen Mirren and the fifth slot up for grabs.  Many on the Buzzmeter are giving that spot to Abbie Cornish in "Bright Star," a dark drama that drew mixed reviews and disappointing box office or young Saoirse Ronan for the still largely unseen "The Lovely Bones." But "Blind Side" could easily trump them as public word of mouth for the film and Bullock's performance should be ecstatic based on that astronomically high CinemaScore rating. If enough members of the Academy's acting branch see it, they will probably react in a similar manner. It's a big star turn in the kind of real-life role that gets Oscars  attention a la Julia Roberts in "Erin Brockovich."

Of course, Universal conducted a large-scale campaign for "Brockovich" and also landed it a Best Picture nomination, something "Blind Side" won't likely be able to do. There's also the fact that Bullock has always been a popular star actress as opposed to the kind of critical darling that usually wins the bigger film awards. This, however, is arguably the best performance of her career.

What this weekend's box office success may do is spur Warner Bros. to conduct a much more substantial campaign on behalf of Bullock than it appears they have so far. On the screening brochure the studio sent out last week to awards groups, and in their most recent trade ads, "The Blind Side" has been invisible while five other films, "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince," "The Informant," "Where The Wild Things Are," "Invictus" and "Sherlock Holmes" have apparently been anointed by Warner Bros.  as their most likely-to-succeed contenders. Perhaps they initially didn't see any awards potential in "Blind Side" or Bullock or maybe just underestimated it?  It would be understandable since these kinds of sports dramas rarely translate to Academy Awards and money is tighter than ever at most studios this year for Oscar hawking.

None of Warner's films have a Best Actress contender though, so there seems to be a clear opening here for Bullock (who has never been nominated for an Oscar before). Rather surprisingly, considering some of the duds shown at the Goldwyn in the past few months,  the film isn't even included on the November or December schedule of movies being screened at the Academy for their members, an important stop for every serious candidate. On the plus side, screeners have already gone out to the Broadcast Film Critics, HFPA and other groups and Bullock and co-star Quinton Aaron did do an obligatory session Nov. 14 for the SAG nominating committee.

A source familiar with Warner's plans said the film is "gaining momentum and getting support" and  Bullock is "well-respected and liked " among her acting colleagues but that the studio "does not comment on its campaigns."

As for the Buzzmeter, any of you Oscarologists who would like to keep me company out on the Bullock limb come on in and  take a shot. Remember last year I was all alone in predicting "Departures" would win Foreign Film and that worked out quite nicely.

Photo: Sandra Bullock and Quint Aaron in "The Blind Side" / Warner Bros.

Comments

[Paul Koval]

Personally, I think that trying to guess Oscar nominees at this point in the year is a little silly. But if you are going to play this parlor game, you should probably at least try to get your facts straight. You make the following comment in your blog about which actress will garner the one Best Actress slot that is supposedly still available: "Many on the Buzzmeter are giving that spot to Abbie Cornish in "Bright Star," a dark drama that drew mixed reviews and disappointing box office..." Personally, I really liked “Bright Star” a great deal. And I suspect from your comment that you didn’t. But, really, that’s beside the point. In your blog you mentioned that Sandra Bullock’s movie got a 72% rating from the Rotten Tomatoes site. Actually, it got a 72% rating from the generally less reliable T-Meter Critics. From Top Critics, the “The Blind Side’s” rating drops to 57%. By comparison, “Bright Star” got an 83% rating from the T-Meter Critics and a jaw-dropping 97% rating from the Top Critics at Rotten Tomatoes. Yes, you read that correctly. 97%. In fact, of the 30 critics whose reviews were polled, 29 gave “Bright Star” a favorable review. So, clearly, “Bright Star” drew anything but “mixed reviews.” It was, in fact, one of the most consistently and passionately praised movies of the year. Now, I’m not saying that means Abbie Cornish will get a Best Actress nod instead of Sandra Bullock. I don’t know. I don’t care, really. But like I said, if you’re going to play your parlor game, at least keep your facts and your logic straight.

[RL]

Sandra Bullock is long overdue for praise and an Oscar...she's the perfect female comedian, smart and funny without pretensions...she can do more with a look than just tossing her hair...

[rob]

I think Bullock has a better chance of a nod than Carey Mulligan .

Meryl Streep, Gabourey Sidibe, and Helen Mirren I think are all for sure's

[Geoff]

I hope that Robin Wright gets a nom for "The Private Lives of Pippa Lee". She is always consistently great in little-seen films. Has anyone heard any buzz on her chances for this finally big, leading role?

[Bia]

I think she is also someone the public would love to root for...it would be nice for The Oscars to have a more commercial star win. Besides, like you say, she does her best work and deserves to be there.

[jtbwriter]

Thank you for seeing what Mr. Know-it-all Scott missed-Sandra Bullock brought out both the heart and feistiness of "The Blind Side's Leigh Anne Touhy. She made this fierce woman more then a one dimensional do-gooder-she showed yes, how Ms. Touhy did change and grow and become a mother to Michael Oher. This movie does deserve kudos and a place at the Oscar table!

[Jacob]

Sorry, Rob, but Bullock does not have a better chance than Mulligan. That statement is just not in line with reality.

[john]

I agree it should get Ms Bullock an Oscar nod. Her performance was fantastic
and I think it WAS her best ever. I have seen the film 3 times already and will
probably see it again. What a fantastic, heartwarming and touching story. The Oscars should try to realize that these types of movies INSPIRE people and can change their lives. Leigh Anne Touhy made a huge difference in this young man's life, and should be a role model for what the best in the human spirit can be. Oh and by the way I will buy the DVD when it comes out. Very few movies move me like this one did and it makes me want to be a better human being

[Sid]

My wife and I saw The Blind Side Saturday afternoon in a full theater and it was one of the best I've ever seen. Coming out, we felt the way we did after seeing Shakespeare in Love at the Oscar-required December showing, just sure we'd just seen a big winner, and we were right. Though I loved Bullock in The Net and Miss Congeniality, she showed her depth and strength in The Blind Side and should muscle her way into the Oscar race. Too often in recent years, the Oscars have been rewarding little pictures few people ever see, but this is a blockbuster -- up 20% in its 2nd weekend while Twilight dropped 70%. Word of mouth is propelling this movie and Sandra Bullock to new heights.

[Judy Hevenly]

Sandra Bullock favorite to win BestComedy Actress
at Globes Awards, for Best Commedy Actress,
and also in running for Comedy/Musical in Academy Awards 2010.

[Patrick]

To Paul Koval -

Guessing Oscar nominees has more than looking at rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

So if you’re going to play your parlor game, at least come up with something rather than percentages from a website.

Oscar voters are not only critics but people who work in the industry. That does not mean what critics say are not important. They definitely influence but there are more to that.

[Laura]

After reading a couple of these comments I think a few of you are the same people who commented on his blog on Nov.4 and said she didn't have a shot in the world for a nomination. I guess that crow you're eating now and may have to eat again at Oscar time is tasting pretty bad about now isn't it.