Oscar stunner? Close votes shake up some races

Could it be closer than we think?

Based on my own highly unscientific polling among academy voters, the best picture Oscar would appear to be secured for "Slumdog Millionaire" as even your grandmother in Provo could safely predict.

Other categories like actor, supporting actor, original screenplay, foreign film and even actress seem to be open for discussion.  Now that may be just because it's silly season and two days out and we're looking for any excuse to pump up interest in the race but there are genuine strong indications of tighter than usual voting.

Some bloggers were even seen to be taking seriously a bogus item purporting to be "leaked" official results of the actual winners. The list, which included Amy Adams as supporting actress and "The Reader" over "Slumdog Millionaire" in adapted screenplay among many other unlikely scenarios, COULD NEVER HAPPEN (even in the age of the Internet).

The academy's system of voting integrity is foolproof and it pains me to say that my dream book entitled "Academy Award Vote Totals 1927 to 2008 By Pete Hammond" can never be written because after a certain number of years the results (usually known only to two execs at PricewaterhouseCoopers) are destroyed.

It would be fascinating to see how close "Cabaret" came to beating "The Godfather" for best picture in 1972 or "The Pianist" vs. "Chicago" 30 years later or what the final tally was between Judy Garland and Grace Kelly in 1954 or what number really separated "Crash" and "Brokeback Mountain,"  etc., etc. We will never know. That's a fact, not a prediction, and it's part of Oscar's peculiar charm that we won't and can't.

Looking at the tightest contests, Saturday's Independent Spirit Awards will give us our last pre-Oscar matchup between Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke as both are up for best actor (along with fellow Oscar nominee Richard Jenkins). This gives the Indie Spirits, one of my favorite events of the season, even more interest than usual. Will this continue Mickey's momentum after his impressive win at BAFTA or put Sean back in the driver's seat? My guess is Mickey takes the indie crown but Sean squeaks out an Oscar. The X factor is the closeness of the academy balloting in this category and the Frank Langella contingent is out there in force as previously noted in this column. If Frank can drive up a decent number of votes that might otherwise go to Sean, the Mickey Rourke supporters could sneak their guy through in a squeaker.

As for best actress, suddenly a lot of bloggers have been throwing out Melissa Leo as a threat to  presumed winner Kate Winslet. Really? How can Kate lose? She's on the cover of Time Magazine this week. TIME FRIGGIN' MAGAZINE has named Kate Winslet best actress so it's over, right? Again, just as in the actor race a strong three-way contest can produce an unexpected result. A lot, I mean A LOT of voters have told me they went with Meryl Streep. A LOT have said the same thing about Winslet. One guy I know voted for Melissa Leo, but apparently many voters outside of the actors branch caught up with her small indie film, "Frozen River," quite late in the game even though Sony Classics got it out to the academy first  back in September. That fresh front-of-mind factor could work in her favor. If it were just actors voting I would make Leo the front-runner. They love her and they've all worked with her, but it's the entire academy voting so the main contest is Streep vs. Winslet. And don't forget there is a lot of academy love for Winslet's film, "The Reader." It would indeed be a stunner for me if she lost here. But a REALLY close vote between those two could make Leo a real, not imagined, factor.

Leo, by the way, is pretty much a certainty to take the Indie Spirit Best Actress prize Saturday. Anne Hathaway is her only really serious competition but Leo and "Frozen River" are the stuff the Spirits are made of.

Then there's supporting actress. I called this in May for Penelope Cruz after seeing "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" in Cannes. I am sticking with her. She certainly deserves this and voters I am talking to seem to agree, although Viola Davis would appear to have a more than decent shot at upsetting for her 10  minutes in "Doubt." It's the impact that lingered for Davis voters, but Cruz should pull it out. Again it's too close for comfort.

"Milk" is still likely to take original screenplay but there is still a lot of "Wall-E" love out there, just enough to make this category a little shaky as well. For those who got it, "Wall-E" represented a special connection more than any previous animated screenplay nominee. Still, the academy being the academy, it's tough to beat Dustin Lance Black and the social significance of his Harvey Milk biopic. But don't count the robot out quite yet.

For foreign language film, most pundits seem to be thinking "Waltz With Bashir." It's won the majority of the precursors but it is also uncharted territory for this category. No animated film, no documentary and no film from Israel has ever won here so it would be three firsts. If not "Bashir," most pundits then move to the Palme d'Or winner from France, "The Class" but some voters I talked to thought it was dull. One even left after the first half. The committee at large likely did not vote this in on the first round and the academy's executive committee put in it in the mix (they won't confirm this but sources indicate that was the case). If you are looking for a pool winner go with Japan for the upset. That country's film,"Departures" is one the original foreign language committee LOVED. It just might surprise on Oscar night particularly since this is one category members must prove they have seen ALL the nominated films in a theater.  The result often depends on who is getting out their vote. Since Sony Classics has both "The Class" and "Bashir" could that vote be split allowing "Departures" to sneak in for the surprise?

At any rate all this speculation and desire for upsets or anything but the status quo is what keeps us going until the big night. Often this last minute debate is all for naught as the obvious winner becomes the obvious winner and we all claim later that's exactly what we knew was gonna happen.

Still  after going to one award show after another this season where the big winner was always the same movie, "Slumdog Millionaire," an unexpected name that pops out of the envelope at least in one or two categories would at least ramp up the drama factor.

Lots more words to write as the weekend progresses but until the envelopes start getting ripped open for real ,here's some cinematic advice for Oscar junkies who just CAN'T wait until Sunday.

Check out some of my favorite movies that feature our boy Oscar in a key role:

"A Star Is Born,"  both the 1937 and 1954 versions. Watch the classic scene where a drunken Norman Maine disrupts his wife's big Academy Award moment.

"California Suite" (1978), a Neil Simon comedy in which Maggie Smith became the first person  to actually WIN an Oscar for playing an Oscar also-ran for spitting out lines like, "I won't really get pissed until AFTER I lose".

"Susan Slept Here" (1954), Debbie Reynolds and Dick Powell comedy which is actually narrated by the Oscar statuette itself!

"The Star" (1952), Bette Davis got a nomination as a drunken has-been actress with only an Oscar to keep her warm at night.

"The Oscar" (1966), of course the granddaddy kitsch classic of all Oscar's movie roles. The story of Frankie Faine, an up-from-the-gutter contender for the industry's highest award who wanted to "swallow up Hollywood like a cat swallows a canary."

The interesting thing is all of these movies dealing with Oscar in one way or another actually received Oscar nominations of their own proving that Oscar loves seeing himself on the big screen.

So before the REAL LIFE Academy Awards happen on Sunday, cuddle up with some popcorn and a bottle of wine and check out the REEL LIFE versions.

As Davis' washed-up star Margaret Elliott in "The Star" so aptly puts it:

"Come on Oscar, let's you and me go get drunk!"

-- Pete Hammond

Photo: Universal

Comments

[wienrdog]

My all-time favorite movie in this vein is the Pia Zadora classic "The Lonely Lady." True, the award wasn't officially an "Oscar." (I'm sure they had to change the name to protect the guilty.) But it was the Oscars, nevertheless. Wouldn't it be fun to see a Pia-like meltdown by a winner during the real thing?

[Alf!]

How do members go about proving they've seen the foreign language films.

[Bork]

"Other categories like actor, supporting actor, original screenplay, foreign film and even actress seem to be open for discussion."

Supporting actor category open for discussion? Seriously? I would love it if it was and if the category was judged solely on the performances, but I don't believe anybody can honestly say it is this year.

[Pete Hammond]

Hi Alf! (Loved your sitcom by the way).
Members who vote on Foreign Language must sign an affadavit confirming they saw the film and list the theatre or screening where they saw it. They can't see the films on DVD screeners either.