Did BAFTA slip Sean a Mickey? Actor race on fire

It was another weekend of awards, awards, awards, including the all-important BAFTAs and WGA honors, which added up to one unmistakable conclusion: Fox Searchlight is headed for a stunning victory Oscar night with "Slumdog Millionaire." It hasn't stumbled yet. If the film were out in time for Grammy eligibility, "Jai Ho" probably would have been record of the year too. That's just the way it's going. And with the BAFTA best actor honor for Mickey Rourke in their other contender, "The Wrestler,"  Searchlight just may be holding a full house.

Or not.

I spent some of Sunday at the UCLA Faculty Center for BAFTA-LA's wonderfully civilized brunch and live viewing party of the British Academy Awards. It was a nice affair and a big improvement over a similar brunch last year, when they couldn't get the right satellite feed from London and instead we sat and watched BBC America promo spots for two hours.

There were a lot of great moments in the show, including the appearance of a very wry and witty Mick Jagger as best picture presenter; the real David Frost teamed with Michael Sheen, the man who plays him in "Frost/Nixon"; and a nice shout-out to "Slumdog's" best director winner, Danny Boyle, from his son Gabriel, who stood up during his father's acceptance speech and yelled, "I love you, Dad!"

The room was full of BAFTA voters (with some holding dual memberships in the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences), and when Marion Cotillard announced Rourke's name as winner in the best actor race, it got the biggest ovation of the day.  His speech also went over very big with this crowd, especially when he thanked his director, Darren Aronofsky, for giving him a second chance after "... up my career for 15 years." You could see the pleased reactions of many in the London audience as well, including from Sharon Stone, Christian Slater and Harvey Weinstein. Host Jonathan Ross got a big laugh saying, "After that speech he's now suspended for three months." I asked some BAFTA/Oscar voters afterward what they thought, and they confidently predicted a Mickey repeat win at the Kodak on Feb. 22.

But can he catch presumed front-runner Sean Penn, whose movie "Milk" did not win any trophies from the British group? They even awarded best original screenplay to local favorite, Martin McDonagh's "In Bruges," over Dustin Lance Black, a triumphant double-WGA winner this weekend. Perhaps "Milk" is just too American a story, but then "The Wrestler" is not exactly tea and crumpets material either. 

The whole actor race is beginning to look like last year's actress duel between Julie Christie and Cotillard. After losing the SAG Award, Cotillard's fortunes turned at BAFTA, where she upset home-grown Christie. Like Cotillard, Rourke now has a Golden Globe and BAFTA Award going into the Oscar stretch. Last year BAFTA correctly forecast all four eventual Oscar acting winners, and this year the academy followed its example and nominated the same five films for best picture, including "The Reader." So, interesting, eh?

Oscar history, though, would appear to be on Penn's side, since his film has eight nominations — including best picture — indicating more overall support in the academy than "The Wrestler," which has only two acting nods (Marisa Tomei is the other).  Also Penn (like Cotillard) is playing a real-life figure, Rourke is not, and recent academy voting trends point to that factor as being very big. The wrinkle here could be "Frost/Nixon" best actor nominee Frank Langella, who is also playing a very well-known historical figure, Richard Nixon. He would have appeared to be the front-runner at one time but has yet to gain any real traction, with no opportunities to try out an Oscar acceptance speech at any of the precursor award ceremonies. Sometimes that can be a big plus, as in Rourke's case, which has served as a reminder of his own remarkable comeback story. Voters are suckers for that.

Can the BAFTA speech boost Mickey at this point?

"Ballots aren't due until a week from tomorrow. That's an eternity," said someone today who is very knowledgeable about Oscar's fickle ways, and he adds he would like to see it just to add some drama to the show. Certainly a "Slumdog" sweep isn't gonna do that.

Searchlight clearly thinks this thing could fly. In an effort to counter Focus Features' huge "Milk" campaign, they have been heavily advertising Rourke's performance in the trades, including three appearances last week alone on Variety's expensive cover. The TV spots of a tearful Randy "The Ram" Robinson are pretty constant as well. They are going for it.

The Langella factor could be key in determining which way this race goes. Many older voters and non-actor members I have spoken to are casting their votes for him, and it appears he's taking more potential support away from Penn, who, like Langella, plays a real-life politician, than from Rourke. One retiree, a member of the sound branch and a longtime academy member, expressed concern to me Sunday that the academy might actually give the lead actor Oscar to "the Wrestler guy" as he put it. This voter had already sent in his ballot for Langella, whom he described as being "just like Nixon." For the record, his best picture choice was far and away "Slumdog Millionaire."

Some in the media are now portraying this as a two-way race between "bad boys" and good friends Penn and Rourke, but I would say it's more like a three-way contest with Langella's supporters confusing the issue. For the other two contenders, Brad Pitt and Richard Jenkins, it's nice to be nominated. Certainly all can be thankful the actors' branch overlooked "Gran Torino," which has turned into a huge hit. Had Clint Eastwood been nominated, things might have been really dicey.

In the other acting races, Heath Ledger is a foregone conclusion now, and Kate Winslet's BAFTA win for "The Reader" continues her strong awards run. Significantly it came for the first time in a lead actress category. Since she previously competing against her own "Revolutionary Road" performance, her two "Reader" wins were supporting nods from the Globes and SAG.

Winslet actually seemed happier to see Penelope Cruz take the supporting actress award at BAFTA for "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" after beating her at SAG and the Globes.

The cameras caught Winslet enthusiastically hugging Cruz as she passed by on her way up to accept,  and then again during the Cruz speech when she looked thrilled and delighted to see she hadn't cost Penelope yet ANOTHER statuette.

Ledger, Winslet and Cruz would seem to be best bets at this point ,but I am talking to a good chunk of voters who keep saying they actually are going for "Doubt's" one-scene wonder, Viola Davis, over Cruz, so there's still a significant contest there as we head into the stretch.

It ain't over 'til it's over — and that would be when ballots are returned by 4 p.m. Feb. 17.

— Pete Hammond

Comments

[Chicago48]

Can someone explain how come the Wrestler isn't in wider release and not among the top 5 movies? It's one of the best of the years. Where did Fox drop the ball; or maybe they're putting all their money in Slumdog and skimming off of Wrestler?

[Chris]

Can you quantify "many" and "some" BAFTA/Oscar voters? There is buzz and then there is real buzz. Is this real buzz or anecdotal buzz?

[David]

If Langella causes Penn to miss getting a second Oscar I'll be very annoyed.

[Reg]

I hate the political game the Academy seems to play. Slumdog is overrated and the Academy needs to figure that out before they bore us to death with a sweep. They've already swept every other award show, show some love to some other deserving films. These are MY winners:

Milk
Sean Penn
Meryl Streep
Heath Ledger
Viola Davis

[lady]

what if rourke causes penn to miss getting a second oscar?

[Kate]

You said: "They even awarded best original screenplay to local favorite, Martin McDonagh's "In Bruges," over Dustin Lance Black, a triumphant double-WGA winner this weekend."

And I wouldn't be so bold as to state it that way. First of all, believe it or not, McDonagh is not a local favourite and was actually snubbed in the "Directing Debut" category at the BAFTAs. In Bruges only took home one out of four nominations. To state that McDonagh is some kind of automatic favourite is simply false.

Secondly I think it's quite rude to imply that this imagined 'favouritism' is the cause of this win. It was a good script, and it hasn't gotten any promotion from its failing distributor, and it got where it is all on quality. McDonagh deserved Best Screenplay.

Last but not least the "even" in the sentence makes it all a rather snubbing whole, as if In Bruges is not a deserving winner. I beg to differ, and so do the BIFAs, Golden Globes, BAFTAs, IFTAs and Academy, apparently. You don't have to belittle other films to make the point that their opponent is also good.

[jdls08]

"Slumdog Millionaire" is the best of the Nominated and deserves to win. I also hope Boyle, Rourke, Winslet, Cruz and ledger take the other top prizes. These are all deserving as well.

[Jemima]

Just because a sweep for Slumdog has become a predictable prospect doesn't mean it's not deserving. I, for one, would like to see Slumdog break the vice-like grip that bio-pics & Forrest Gump-like big studio films have always had on the Academy. In with the fresh & risky - go Slumdog, Mickey, Viola!

[Gariot]

How hard is it for Rourke to play a down-and-out wrestler (he’s done the boxing thing, right?) with a messed-up face (compare Rourke in 9 ½ Weeks to the man today)? Is he simply playing himself with a Macho Man Randy Savage hairdo and tights? Or is he breaking new ground, moving beyond himself?

Mr. Penn, I say make room on the mantel for that second Oscar.