BAFTAs: Is 'The Dark Knight' in trouble?

As many of you slept Wednesday night, the British Academy of Film and Television Arts, a.k.a. BAFTA,  announced its final nominees early this morning London time. Mostly it mirrors what pundits are predicting for the Oscar race, but it does confirm one lingering doubt I've had and it's not about "Doubt."

This is the last list, the last stop before the Oscar nominations are announced Jan. 22. The overall membership of BAFTA includes several hundred voters who are also members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences. Ever since BAFTA changed its voting dates to correspond with the rest of the  awards season, it has been an interesting factor in trying to predict Oscar patterns.

"Slumdog Millionaire" and "The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button"  lead in overall nominations with 11 each and are nominated for best picture along with "Milk", "Frost/Nixon" and "The Reader."

Almost every pundit out there now is predicting that the fifth slot in the Oscar race will go to "The Dark Knight," which received nine BAFTA noms but all except Heath Ledger's supporting actor nod were in technical categories. No screenplay, no directing, no picture. This runs against the grain of the DGA, PGA and WGA nominations, which all named "Dark Knight" and seemed to be pointing toward a certain best picture nomination.

Yet in BAFTA, it's the British-tinged "The Reader" that has gotten those nominations, five overall including Stephen Daldry for directing and David Hare for writing. This is the movie that has cropped up again and again in conversations I have had with Academy members, not "The Dark Knight."

My guess has been that "Dark Knight's" key support is with the technical branches of the Academy and that they could put it over the top as best picture. That scenario was also possible in BAFTA but didn't happen, and "The Reader" prevailed, much like "Atonement" last year, which had been ignored by all the guilds only to rebound, winning best picture at BAFTA and a surprise best picture nomination at the Oscars after the onetime front-runner was all but dumped by the pundits.

Can this happen again, with the beneficiary being the Harvey Weinstein love child, "The Reader"?  It's an intriguing thought -- and one that's viable if you talk to enough Oscar voters. One major Oscar consultant who takes his own poll has also discovered little support for "Dark Knight" in the picture category and many "Reader" mentions. Are we both getting it wrong? Perhaps. Time will tell. Could Weinstein's insistence on putting "The Reader" in the race this year against much initial objection (particularly from producer Scott Rudin, who took his name off) actually pay off big time?

"The Reader" seems even stronger at BAFTA than "Milk," which did get a best picture mention but was snubbed for Gus Van Sant's direction and gained only three other nominations, including a minor makeup nod in addition to original screenplay and, of course, Sean Penn. "Milk" looks like the weakest link in the British race.

Incidentally the Brits correctly ruled Kate Winslet's performance in "The Reader" is a lead, so she is competing against her own performance in "Revolutionary Road" for best actress against Angelina Jolie, Kristin Scott Thomas and Meryl Streep. Oscar rules prohibit two nominatons in the same acting category so the newly minted double Golden Globe winner will just have to hope the Academy falls for her supporting "Reader" campaign the same way the Hollywood Foreign Press did.

Just for the record, while BAFTA went with hometown favorite "Atonement" for best picture last year, it correctly foreshadowed all four Oscar acting winners, Daniel Day-Lewis, Javier Bardem, Marion Cotillard and Tilda Swinton, the latter two getting a big boost as pundits had predicted Julie Christie and Amy Ryan to win instead. Oscar followed suit. Hmmmmmm.

I would also note the resurgence of another film largely forgotten by pundits, and that's Clint Eastwood's terrific "Changeling," which nabbed a very impressive eight BAFTA nominations, including those for Eastwood's direction, the original screenplay and Angelina Jolie for best actress, a category that snubbed supposed faves Anne Hathaway in "Rachel Getting Married," Melissa Leo in "Frozen River" and England's own Golden Globe winner and critics darling Sally Hawkins in "Happy Go Lucky," which got a total of zero nominations, quite surprising for a Mike Leigh film, doncha think?

"Happy Go Lucky" was released in Britain way back on April 18 so had been completely played out when awards season hit. Was it a victim of its own early release date there or were they just not that into you, Sally?

BAFTA also wasn't that into Woody Allen, whose widely praised and WGA-nominated script for "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" was snubbed by less-talked-about possibilities, "In Bruges," "I've Loved You So Long" and the aforementioned "Changeling."

As for "Rachel Getting Married," although it played the London Film Festival in October, it isn't scheduled for release in the U.K. until next week but apparently  Hathaway's performance is eligible this year as she was on BAFTA's initial longlist. One film that was disqualified is Eastwood's late inning Oscar vehicle, "Gran Torino," which hasn't opened in the UK. There's been lots of talk of a late surge for "Torino" at the Oscars by members watching it -- and LOVING it -- just  as voting was taking place, making it, like "The Reader," a genuine possibility to knock a Dark Knight out the Big One too. Or not.

And getting back to OUR Academy Awards, the balloting closed officially Monday. How many voters waited until the very last minute to get their ballots in? According to a spy for a studio with one very big dog in the race, there were approximately 81 ballots hand-delivered to the Pricewaterhouse offices in Los Angeles before the 5 p.m. deadline. That's way down from last year, when around 500 were supposedly dropped off on the last day, which would mean Oscar voters had it much more together this year than last.

How does this spy know all this? They coyly planted paid studio watchdogs to hang out at PW and watch all the messengers come in with the specifically colored envelopes that indicated Academy ballots.

The CIA has NOTHING on Oscar consultants!

-- Pete Hammond 

Photo courtesy Warner Bros.

Comments

[JUG]

As a Brit, I'll just say that I don't think this says much to discourage TDK's claim to that fifth oscar slot. Although TDK was a massive hit over here, it didn't quite have the same cultural impact as it did in America. Remember that Mamma Mia has become our highest grossing film ever (how embarrassing...) and I think the Mummy 3 was top of the box office a couple of weeks after TDK came out (even more embarrassing).

This is mostly because there is even more of a bias against comic book movies over here. The average person on the street still thinks they're all kids stories, although that might just be starting to change.

It's a shame that the Baftas didn't give rightful recognition to the British director, writers and actors who were such a big part of making TDK, but it honestly isn't surprising.

Pay no attention to the BAFTA nominations, Dark Knight hopefuls. It'll still get the Oscar nom.

[malevolentmuse]

Like I said on another site, I don't buy it. Each day a new movie is "the one" to know Dark Knight from the top five. It sounds like reporters trying to build suspense when there is none just like the election.

[frans josef]

The Dark knight will score big time when Oscar nods are announced and it will not be the weakest link

[Michael]

Jug, very well put - most americans don't see things outside their bubble.

[Linda]

What the hell does a movie have to do to garner a best picture nomination? The Dark Knight, with the re-release, will end up grossing over a billion dollars, it is the second highest rated movie of the year among the critics, it has captured the imagination of pop-culture, it has redefined and transcended the genre, and it bosts one of the best performances in years - even better than all the contenders for best actor this year. What else does a movie need to do to be considered "BEST PICTURE"????

[Adam]

Interesting views, Pete - but Rachel Getting Married was eligible. It's just that every Bafta voter I know HATED it.

[moviegoer09]

It would great to see "Changeling" my favorite film of the year as one of the five nominated for OSCAR best pic. Now that would be a huge surprise but I just don't think the Academy will ignore the huge boxoffice of TDK but then again "Changeling" could replace "Milk" as the fifth choice.

[Patrick]

In the grand scheme of things, the BAFTA's mean jack squat at the Oscars.

Example, Munich got completely shut out of the BAFTAs and that didn't hurt it getting a Best Picture nomination. The guilds have way more importance than the Globes and BAFTA.

[Lisa in Los Angeles]

Yes - The Reader is the better film. The Dark Knight is fantastic entertainment, but if you see the reader, you'll see a story of the triumph of love over hate, of the search for redemption and the extraordinary power of compassion. None of these positive themes were present in The Dark Knight, and these are the stronger themes. I loved The Dark Knight. But I would easily nominate those five films (Slumdog, Milk, Button, The Reader, and Frost/Nixon) as the five best of the year, hands down. Yes, I've seen them all. And yes, I saw Doubt as well, and while it was compelling, it too does not belong in the top five.

[Brian Robinson]

I agree with JUG that TDK just may not hold the same significance for the Brits that it does for Americans (just as "Mama Mia" isn't considered a likely candidate for any type of Oscar nom here.)

TDK is very specifically about where America is and has been for the past 7-8 years. While the US is undoubtedly an influential nation in the world, the movie seemed to really speak to Americans and actually challenge them about where we have allowed our nation to migrate to in the name of "justice".

Its ironic that the originator and captain of the story, Nolan, is British, but sometimes it takes someone from outside the school yard to be able to identify the players. TDK does what good art does -- yeah, I called it "art" -- and that is to take the recognizable, mix it up, and re-present it in a more meaningful and resonate form. It deserves to be in the running for Best Picture, capes and all!

[azza knight]

"Posted by: Michael | January 15, 2009 at 10:49 AM

What the hell does a movie have to do to garner a best picture nomination? The Dark Knight, with the re-release, will end up grossing over a billion dollars, it is the second highest rated movie of the year among the critics, it has captured the imagination of pop-culture, it has redefined and transcended the genre, and it bosts one of the best performances in years - even better than all the contenders for best actor this year. What else does a movie need to do to be considered "BEST PICTURE"???? "

Kudos to Michael who thnks of the mentality and attitude that HOLLYWOOD SHOULD as for the BAFTAS well...fair to say they hinge a bit too excessively on the traditional. Frankly, I HIGHLY doubt academy members are lukewarm about TDK furthermore, the press better be careful i sense a smear campaign building against TDK and IF that is the case expect the DK to win extra big remember 2001? or when 'Munich' was a contender? the more debate there is about the legitimacy of the rite of a film to get best pic nomination, the more likely it is to win big.

above all, each Academy member MUST NOT FORGET they stand for recognizing the best in MOTION PICTURE ARTS AND SCIENCES~!

'Why so serious OScar?" my message is: it's time to get bloody serious about ending their bais against the last of the 'fantastical' aspects of a genre- time to embrace a comic book adaptation for pushing so many boundaires if oscar do not recognize this through a best picture nom, then the public will give a big thumbs down and hence extra pressure will build on the Academy when batman3 comes out IT DOESNT HAVE TO BE BETTER THAN TDK we all know the Academy are in the business of 'I owe you's' and it stinks why can't they recognize the truly innovatyive masterpieces of our time? because they lack the gust and care to allow REAL INNOVATIVE CINEMA to be elevated to the highest level it deserves as an example- stand out of contemporary film making at the visionary scale to the world.

Im disgusted at the BAFTAS i just lot a lot of respect from their misguided decision its extraordinarily remarkable that given some people boasting the over bloated 'slumdog' has technical innovations but, major noms asideTDK is the most nominated in all technical catgoires combined?

PERSPECTIVE WILL HIT HOME COME OSCAR i could not fathom a scenario where the dark knight got noms in screenplay, director and picture guilds and be locked out of all of those major categories. see, BAFTA knew if so much as to give it a screenplay nod, it would give TDK legitimacy and more power as an oscar contender- well get ready for a few twists oscar thrown in surprisaes this unsubstantiated poorly written sepculative mulch by this writer here, is merely the cover up t an oscar surprise i DO not buy into for one minute that TDK is in trouble at all it deserbves its nominations and, with the anniversary of Heath LEdgers death, coupled with the IMAX relrelease in the us of TDK id expect TDK monetum in lead up to oscar to really pick up steam.

if the press are goign to go down the road of bashingg TDK chances this will maximise its legitimacy in its rite to not only be nominated in all the major categories, but probably a landslide win dont forget 2001 the smear campaign against "
A Beautifucl mind" i reckon warner bros are rubbing their hands with glee of the press casting doubt on TDK when they know they created the second motion picture phenomena of the 21st century maybe the press should start to consider how lucky we are to be seeing film in the 2000's.

This negativity is a vale that is conealign the big time for TDK.

sO, kUDOS TO YOU mICHAEL

[azza knight]

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[azza knight]

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[Baby Clyde]

The problem with TDK is that it's a completely incoherent mess.

[luis]

Gran Torino is the best film of the year.