It's the battle of the vets vs. superstars in tightening best actor race

With "The Soloist" and "The Road" taking a hike to 2009 and late entries such as "Last Chance Harvey" and "The Reader" edging in for a spot, the top-tier contenders in the ever-changing Best Actor race seem to be settling into a knock-down battle between superstars and/or Oscar winners Brad Pitt, Leonardo DiCaprio and Sean Penn vs. veteran actors Richard Jenkins and Frank Langella looking for perhaps their once-in-a-lifetime shot at grabbing the gold -- the "F. Murray Abraham effect" as I like to call it.

And then there's Clint. As in superstar, Oscar winner and veteran actor Eastwood, his four previous Academy Awards coming for directing and producing "Unforgiven" and "Million Dollar Baby" and again a separate contender in those categories for "Changeling" opening tomorrow. The one thing that has eluded him so far is that acting statue despite two previous lead nominations for "Unforgiven" and "Million Dollar Baby."

I received a "this is the honest-to-God truth -- I swear on a stack of bibles" response from an insider who saw a rough cut of Eastwood's December entry "Gran Torino" earlier this week saying that "the old guy could actually win it all for this one. He's THAT good in this." The insider goes on to point out that the role gives Clint great emotional range as a racist Korean war vet hanging on to memories.

With a smart "True Grit" style campaign that takes note of the fact Eastwood has actually never won an acting Oscar, he certainly should vault to the top of any list if indeed the film and performance lives up to this earliest of hype.

He'll be competing for the veteran slot with "The Visitor's" Richard Jenkins, an actor's actor who shows if you hang around long enough you can get a major leading role and run with it. Fellow actors will certainly relate to his dream scenario and Overture will likely flood the town with DVDs of the spring release, making sure the critically acclaimed art-house surprise hit gets seen. A boatload of critics awards could keep him near the top of the list, and that's what the distributor is working overtime to land.

Alongside Jenkins is another never-nominated veteran, Frank Langella in the enviable position of brilliantly reprising his Tony-winning role of Richard Nixon in Ron Howard's "Frost Nixon" (Dec. 5). It's not just an impersonation but a fascinating, full-blooded portrayal of a fallen giant trying to put his legacy back together in a series of interviews with David Frost. Academy voters of course have not shied away recently from awarding those who portray well-known real-life people.

This fact should also help Oscar winner (for "Mystic River") Sean Penn in "Milk" (Nov. 26), in which he seems to be channeling Harvey Milk, the gay San Francisco supervisor who was assassinated in his prime. The love for biopic performances could even spread to Josh Brolin for his dead-on portrait of George W. Bush in Oliver Stone's "W.," but reaction to him, Langella, Penn and even Eastwood's race-baiting ex-Marine could all depend on what kind of political mood the largely liberal Academy actors branch is in after Nov. 4th.

This variable in the race could benefit a trio of popular superstars in non-political roles all opening in late December. First off, Brad Pitt in the film seeming to be building an early consensus as front-runner, "The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button" (Dec. 25). Paramount consultants are trying to carefully keep expectations for him in check, saying the unusual and poignant role of a man who ages backwards is an understated triumph for Pitt that requires less obvious "acting" than some others this year.

An Academy voting member (in the actors' branch) who saw the whole film at another hush-hush early screening this week (seem to be a LOT of those going on behind my back) says this while invoking a comparison to some choice Paul Newman classic roles:

"He's not chewing the scenery but he's so soulful. It's just a fascinating performance. He's powerful and so connected. It's subtle but it has to be because of what he's playing. It's very Paul Newman in that the soul, suffering and the loss is all expressed so well in his eyes."

The Academy member added that Cate Blanchett and Tilda Swinton also hit it out of the park in David Fincher's two-hour 45-minute film.

Brad's superstar competition, Leonardo DiCaprio, has proven be an Academy favorite with three nominations already and a good possibility of another for "Revolutionary Road" (Dec. 26) especially considering the dramatic fireworks inherent in the film's maritial relationship between him and Kate Winslet.

Completing the star trio, Hollywood's current box-office king, Will Smith, is said to be superb (this from a Sony insider, though) in an emotional role in the widely unseen "Seven Pounds" (Dec. 19). The film reunites him with his "The Pursuit of Happyness" director Gabriele Muccino, a film that netted him one of his two Oscar nominations.

In the comeback slot there's "The Wrestler's" (Dec. 19) Mickey Rourke, absolutely terrific in a role that will be catnip for the actors' branch, plus he will really be working it, a necessary component these days in any Oscar campaign but particularly important for smaller pictures. Rourke's is the kind of performance that also can benefit greatly from some early critics awards.

Rounding out the formidable list of possibilities:

Dustin Hoffman, who is wonderful as a down-on-his-luck 65-year-old jingle writer who finds a second chance at love opposite Emma Thompson in "Last Chance Harvey." A certain Golden Globe comedy nomination could propel the beloved two-time Oscar winner further in a quest for a third in this last-minute entry opening Dec. 26.

Ralph Fiennes in the other (controversial) last-minute add, "The Reader" (Dec. 12), as the older version of Michael. His role in "The Duchess" (presumably being campaigned in the less-crowded supporting category) will only help keep the heat on Fiennes. Harvey Weinstein told me this week he wants to let the film speak for itself and said "I don't want to hype it for you." Me thinks he knows he has the goods here. You can just see the twinkle in Oscar-hungry Harvey's eye. Bigger question is whether any of the Weinstein/Scott Rudin brouhaha surrounding the release will actually hurt the case for a film that seems to have Oscar written all over it.

Michael Sheen, playing David Frost in "Frost/Nixon" and every bit the equal of Langella in their cat and mouse interview games is probably headed for the short-end of the stick here because of increased competition and the actors' branch's reluctance to nominate two stars from one film in the same lead category. A move to supporting though is out of the question. Not gonna happen. It's a lead role and win or lose a nomination, Sheen (who quite unfairly wasn't Tony nominated when Langella won) wants it seen as such.

Tom Cruise in "Valkyrie" (Dec. 26) has a chance if the performance surprises and the movie is as good a thriller as it is said to be. Unfortunately right now it's not perceived as "an Oscar kind of movie or role" but if voters are ready to lift up Tom after a rough few years this might be the place to do it. He won goodwill with his "Tropic Thunder" extended cameo as well. The heavyweight competition may be just too much to overcome though making Cruise a real longshot.

Robert Downey Jr. is being campaigned in support for "Tropic Thunder" but there is a surprising amount of talk by Academy members we have found who are really fond of his big summer smash "Iron Man," which rewrote the rules on casting comic book movies. With his "Soloist" Oscar shot deep-sixed, "Iron Man" could be the sleeper nomination to watch here. Problem is the Academy's Downey fans are about to be hit with an onslaught of contenders in this category and it's likely that May's "Iron Man" will quickly move down the list. Still it's certainly his year and this would be just the kind of off-the-wall move that makes the Oscars so much fun.

And then there's ---

Hugh Jackman in the role Russell Crowe snubbed in "Australia" (Nov. 26), but the movie is in a fight just to get finished, so no one seems to be able to gauge Jackman's real chances here. A big question mark at the moment.

Daniel Craig in "Defiance" (Dec. 31), but we're not getting a huge vibe here. Liev Schreiber said to have the better shot in support for this one, which just moved its Oscar-qualifying run to the last day of the year and its national break to January.

Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Synecdoche, New York" (today), but no one can pronounce it so he's out.

Ben Kingsley in "Elegy," too small and not enough campaign money to make it fly despite the impressive work.

Greg Kinnear in "Flash Of Genius." The movie went by in a flash, crushing some really good work by Kinnear.

Viggo Mortensen in "Good" (Dec. 31). It's from ThinkFilm. Are they ready to wage a cash-up-front Oscar campaign? Better luck next year when "The Road" finally does hit theaters (we think).

Benecio Del Toro in "Che" (December). He won the best actor award at Cannes, but how many members are really going to sit through this thing?

From Nov. 26 through the end of Dec. 15, the above-named contenders' films will be squeezed into theaters to meet the deadlines (13 in December alone), making this the most back-loaded best actor race that anyone can remember.

With the best actress race also packed with late-breaking entries and almost as fiercely competitive as this one, Oscar '08 is shaping up to be a slugfest in the lead categories. Just the way we like it.

-- Pete Hammond

(Leonard DiCaprio, "Revolutionary Road," courtesy WireImage.com and Frank Langella, "Frost/Nixon" courtesy Universal Pictures)

Comments

[Stanger]

What planet am I on -- did you actually mention little lost Tommy Cruise in an Oscar conversation???

[richard douglass]

I saw Viggo Mortensen in "Good" at Toronto Film Festival. He's miscast and very weak in a badly written and directed film which needed a bigger budget. Largge audience's response (even with Viggo in the audience) was lukewarm. I see a limited release and right to dvd.

[Truth]

lmao Brad pitt is a horrible actor. I always laugh when I read people fawning over his acting. He's horrible. He must have good pr behind him.

[Jelaous Much?]

Truth is a moron. Must be a jealous FAT Jennifer Aniston fan.

[sami]

Thanks for your summation Mr. Hammond, it seems to be good bunch this year.

I have to say I hope that Brad Pitt does get nominated this year, he's a good solid actor.

Having watched Jesse James on DVD, the guy was robbed last year. Very underrated!

Both Leo and Will are also good actors, so we will see what the Academy does this year.

Here's hoping they leave studio, and friendship politics outside of the voting.