How 'W.' plans to run an Oscar election - Step One: Throw star-studded premiere | Notes on a Season

Josh Brolin and Oliver Stone at the 'W.' premiere

Chalk up another surefire contender for this year's Academy Awards. Maybe.

Stars, industry honchos and academy members, select press and many actors from the movie all gathered at the Landmark Theatre in West L.A. on Monday night for a first look at Oliver Stone's latest political film, "W.," a surprisingly measured and entertaining take on President George W. Bush.

Among those attending the "special screening" (it wasn't labeled a premiere) were stars Josh Brolin (George W.), Richard Dreyfuss, who plays Dick Cheney, James Cromwell (George H.W. Bush), Scott Glenn (Rumsfeld), along with director Oliver Stone.

Noted guests included Brett Ratner, Bill Maher, Ed Zwick, Paul Haggis, Al Pacino, Martin Sheen, Diane Lane, Academy President Sid Ganis and Maria Bello. Proud father James Brolin and stepmom Barbra Streisand huddled in a corner of the Landmark wine bar at the after-party with her "Meet the Fockers" director, Jay Roach. Jodie Foster, Martin Sheen and Jonah Hill amiably chatted and posed for photos.

Word on the movie, albeit from this clearly partisan crowd, was a near-unanimous thumbs up. Lionsgate execs were bullish on the picture's box-office chances as it opens Oct. 17 in more than 2,000 theaters and right in the heart of a heated presidential campaign.

How it fares among the box-office electorate (and with critics of course) will determine exactly how enthusiastically the distributor will be campaigning the movie for that other important constituent out there: Oscar.

Lionsgate execs we talked to weren't too forthcoming even though more than one well-known awards consultant was seen hovering, apparently eager to get the assignment.

One exec told us they were most likely going to go with a campaign but wanted to gauge the reaction and test the waters "before committing millions of dollars" on an Oscar bid. A sign of the financially cautious times, even in show biz.

Another told us they admired the approach a couple of years ago for eventual best picture winner "The Departed," which ran a sort of non-campaign initially with its consultants trying to play down any talk. "We want people to tell us it's worthy," the exec stated.

It's all about lowered expectations, certainly a debate strategy that recently worked for Sarah Palin.

In any case, Lionsgate has turned out to be the shrewdest of awards-season players, both at the Oscars with its upset 2005 best picture win for "Crash" and its first-ever (for basic cable) best drama series Emmy win for "Mad Men" last month.

And certainly "W." has the stuff Oscar nominations are made of. It's well crafted from a director with a long history of success at the Academy Awards. Stone's "Platoon" took best picture and director in 1986.

He also has another directing Oscar for "Born on the Fourth of July" and a screenplay statue for "Midnight Express." Then Stone's two previous films dealing with famous presidents,"JFK" and "Nixon," grabbed a total of 12 nominations between them.

It's not a stretch to surmise a largely liberal academy could shower love on this insightful, funny and oddly empathetic look at our current president.

Certainly, you could find no one in the room who wasn't raving about Brolin's spot-on portrayal of Bush, one sure to put him in major contention for lead actor, especially considering the academy's recent penchant for rewarding stars who play real-life figures.

Supporting possibilities abound as well, with Cromwell and Dreyfuss, along with Ellen Burstyn as Barbara Bush and Elizabeth Banks as Laura, all likely to get consideration. On the other hand, disdain for an unpopular president could dampen enthusiasm for any movie focused on his life.

"W." was rushed into production in May to make a mid-October release, just in time to become part of the '08 election dialogue. If the plan backfires and the public decides they get enough of the real W. on the news (particularly with an economic crisis accelerating), then the film's Oscar chances could diminish considerably.

Costar Noah Wyle ("ER") told us he hopes the film (which is largely about the Bush administration's march into Iraq) works and, if it does, a sequel, "W2," could focus on the president's handling of the economy.

It's worth noting another new film dealing with a famous president, Ron Howard's superb adaptation of Peter Morgan's Broadway and London hit, "Frost/Nixon," is purposely sitting out the election cycle even though it was completed last April.

Universal decided to release it Dec. 5, a full month after the new president is elected, hoping the film would be looked at on its own and not get lost in the political fever sweeping the nation. A festival premiere is planned for London later this month, farther from the heat of the campaign.

These two differing strategies for two very personal and political films each meriting serious best picture consideration may both turn out to be smart ones -- or not. A volatile electorate could mean a box-office challenge that influences award voters down the road. Who wants to be with a loser, in an election or at the movies?

After all, no one has ever said the Academy Awards are not capable of some politics of their own.

Photos: Top, Josh Brolin, star of "W.," who plays an uncanny George W. Bush, with director Oliver Stone in the Landmark Theatre lobby; right, James Brolin and Barbra Streisand; left, Bill Maher with an unidentified guest. Credits: Wire Image

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