May polling by the American Research Group shows former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani remains the favorite among Republican primary voters in California, although his position has slipped and John McCain has jumped to within the margin of error. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has lost his luster, but Sen. Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney jumped.
| California |
| Likely Republican
Primary Voters |
Jan
2007 |
May 2007 |
|
| Brownback |
- |
1% |
| Gilmore |
- |
1% |
| Giuliani |
33% |
27% |
| Gingrich |
19% |
5% |
| Hagel |
5% |
1% |
| Huckabee |
- |
1% |
| Hunter |
1% |
1% |
| McCain |
18% |
24% |
| Pataki |
- |
- |
| Paul |
ni |
- |
| Romney |
3% |
11% |
| Tancredo |
ni |
1% |
| F Thompson |
ni |
12% |
| T Thompson |
- |
1% |
| Undecided |
22% |
13% |
Among the likely Democratic voters in the Feb. 5 primary, U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton still leads among California voters, while U.S. Sen. Barack Obama has lost a bit of support. John Edwards jumped. The results:
| California |
| Likely Democratic
Primary Voters |
Jan
2007 |
May 2007 |
|
| Biden |
1% |
2% |
| Clark |
2% |
- |
| Clinton |
36% |
37% |
| Dodd |
- |
2% |
| Edwards |
6% |
15% |
| Gravel |
- |
- |
| Kerry |
4% |
ni |
| Kucinich |
1% |
2% |
| Obama |
33% |
28% |
| Richardson |
1% |
3% |
| Vilsack |
- |
ni |
| Undecided |
16% |
11% |
The polling company conducted 600 telephone interviews among a random sample of voters from each party and independents from May 4-8. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage
points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion
is evenly split.
New Mexico Gov. Bill "Give Me a Break, I'm Only at 8%" Richardson formally announces his presidential campaign at 10 a.m. today in Los Angeles at the Millennium Biltmore. Expect a Latino-themed event. You can watch the announcement, along with Richardson's odd but compelling "Job Interview" ad, on his website here.
Rudy Giuliani's California problem: criticize the U.S. Senate's recent immigration overhaul and risk losing the endorsement of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. Stay silent, and risk losing conservatives. So says Mark Levin at the National Review Online. (I don't see Schwarzenegger endorsing any Republican before Feb. 5.)
Former Sen. Fred Thompson, the "Law and Order" star who is contemplating a run for president, is already being compared to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger for obvious reasons. TV networks may remove his movies from rotation during the 2008 campaign, just like they mercifully did with Schwarzenegger movies during the 2003 recall.
Now, Thompson reportedly has scheduled a June visit to "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno," the same non-confrontational chat show where Schwarzenegger made his own surprise announcement that he was running for governor. Let's speculate!
Schwarzenegger is scheduled to appear Wednesday on "The Tonight Show," by the way. His decision to announce on Leno in 2003 was seen as a nontraditional, populist gimmick calculated to bypass the traditional media. Or it could have been the place where Schwarzenegger felt most comfortable. It worked.
 Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's birthday is May 28, but he's nevertheless holding two "birthday celebration" fundraisers two days later in California to collect money for his presidential run. U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton is scheduled to raise money in the state the next day.
Giuliani donors who raise $23,000 for the campaign receive 10 tickets to a VIP reception and, according to the invitation, "PHOTOS and a Preferred table seating of 10 at the Birthday Lunch." Presumably this is where contributors will hear Giuliani's Speech about Fighting Terrorism and watch Giuliani Eat.
(UPDATE: A birthday luncheon is being held in Burlingame May 30, followed the same day by an evening reception at the Beverly Hilton, featuring comedian Dennis Miller.)
Giuliani - with the help of his buddy Bill Simon, the financier who lost to Gray Davis in 2004 - has rounded up some well-known Republican donors on his finance team. They include venture capitalist Tim Draper and Floyd Kvamme, and takeover artist T. Boone Pickens. Giuliani also has Steve Kram, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's former agent, and Michael Huffington, on his team.
California's only major entry in the 2008 presidential race, Republican Rep. Duncan Hunter, has $75,000 in credit card debt.
 U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton needs your help.
The presidential candidate has sent out an e-mail to supporters in California and elsewhere with this urgent plea: "We've been working on an important issue--the kind that can make or break a campaign. And your input is absolutely critical to ensuring that we make the right decision. That's right--we're picking our campaign song."
Clinton is asking people to vote on the theme song through her website, here. For political reporters, including a few friends of mine, this choice is CRITICAL. They will have to hear it four to five times a day for the next eight to 18 months. Remember "Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow?" Thanks to Bill Clinton, a lot of people now hate that song.
The potential Hillary Clinton songs include "City of Blinding Lights" by U2 and "I'll Take You There" by The Staple Singers. She also threw in "Ready to Run" by the Bush-bashing Dixie Chicks, pictured with their recent Grammy haul. Please please please don't make it "I'm A Believer" by Smash Mouth.
There is one song from Foreigner her campaign forgot to include.
(Photo: Gabriel Bouys/AFP-Getty Images)
The Democratic National Committee is going to announce shortly that California has been chosen for one of the six DNC sanctioned presidential debates. It will be December 10th in Los Angeles, broadcast on CBS. They like us, they really like us! Now we get to ask Hillary and Barack about Central Valley water storage.
Anti-immigration activists and Clinton haters are getting some mileage out of an October 1994 video showing labor organizer Fabian Nunez, now the Assembly speaker and a Hillary Clinton supporter, at a Los Angeles rally protesting Proposition 187. The initiative, which passed, was designed to cut off services to illegal immigrants but has since been eviscerated by the courts.
The video shows Nunez on stage at the rally chatting with his friend, Kevin De Leon, now an Assembly member as well, while the U.S. national anthem is played by a trumpet band. The two men, and others on the stage, snap to attention and raise their arms when the Mexican national anthem is played next. (Nunez is obscured behind another man during this, but his fist can be seen in the air.)
On stage, organizers put up U.S. flags featuring the original 13 states - as in, not including California - while members of the audience waved Mexican flags. Several thousand people attended the rally. View videos here.
Former state treasurer Phil Angelides and the wealthy Tsakopoulos family of Sacramento are planning a fundraiser this month for U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign. Angelo Tsakopoulos, a real estate developer, was a major donor to Angelides' gubernatorial campaign.
Howard Fineman at Newsweek saw something in Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's body language during the recent GOP presidential debate at the Reagan Library. Although Schwarzenegger cannot run for president, the California governor could be a leading actor in a new "independent for president" movement. Fineman writes:
"As California governor, Schwarzenegger has
prospered in the role of centrist, hybrid 'Repubocrat' — an independent
force. As he watched the ten GOP presidential candidates take turns
bowing to the GOP's conservative base, the Governator bore the fixed
smile of a man who had a desire to be elsewhere.
"If
I were a GOP strategist — or a Democratic one — I would be worried by
Arnold's body language. He and other major independent actors on the
political scene — New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former Vice
President Al Gore, chief among them — comprise a Third Force that could
upset two-party politics as we know it in the 2008 presidential race."
Fineman says that Schwarzenegger, Bloomberg and
Gore "have formed a mutual admiration society that has huge potential
implications for 2008. They have come to share similar visions on the
urgency of the global warming and health care crises, and a similar
impatience with politics as usual."
Schwarzenegger has said repeatedly that he remains a loyal Republican, despite obvious splits with the core of the conservative California Republican Party. I don't see him as the next Ross Perot spoiler - or, rather, as someone who would have to stand on the sidelines supporting an independent for president. It's an intriguing proposition, but MotherJones says the Schwarzenegger-Bloomberg-Gore theory should be taken with a grain of salt.
(Photo: Mark J. Terrill/AP)
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's office sent out a press release today touting a global warming plan by U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, a Democrat. The presidential candidate from Illinois has introduce a national carbon-reduction initiative based on Schwarzenegger's own efforts in California unveiled in January.
Schwarzenegger has said he's inclined to endorse a Republican for president, but may not make any decision in the primary. The GOP governor already has held a high-profile meeting with U.S. Sen. John McCain, also about global warming standards, and with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Former Gov. Mitt Romney received a private meeting last week. Schwarzenegger spokesman Aaron McLear said the governor and Obama have never talked.
Schwarzenegger's log-rolling with candidate Obama came after the senator's campaign issued a press release that said: "I've introduced a proposal known as a National Low-Carbon Fuel Standard, based on the one introduced by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in California just a few months ago. Like raising our fuel-efficiency standards, this approach simultaneously reduces our dependence on oil and reduces greenhouse gas emissions."
The governor's office made sure reporters knew this fact, buried inside Obama's release today about a speech he gave to the Detroit Economic Club. Obama's plan would require oil producers to reduce the carbon content in their fuels by 1% a year. Like with Schwarzenegger's California plan, this presumably would spur them to produce renewable fuels such as biodiesel - in turn creating another incentive for car makers to churn out more hybrids. It would also install a carbon trading scheme allowing slower-moving oil companies to purchase credits from refineries that are producing cleaner fuel.
Meanwhile, this next global warming story was probably inevitable: "STEVE Bracks produced almost 2 tonnes of
greenhouse gas when he flew to Los Angeles for a photo shoot with
Californian Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger to spruik the dangers of
climate change. The Premier's flight from Melbourne to LA last week
produced 1.96 tonnes of carbon dioxide for each individual on board." Herald Sun (Australia).
(Photo: Stefano Paltera/AP)
Los Angeles County Sheriff Lee Baca is endorsing U.S. Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign.
The politically ambitious Baca, who has been the elected L.A. sheriff for about a decade, "commands the largest sheriff's department in the world, supervising more than 17,00 sworn and civilian personnel," McCain's campaign said this morning.
"I am proud to support John McCain. He has an impressive record of public service,
and his strength on the issues that are critical to keeping us safe sets him
apart," said Baca said in a statement released by the campaign. "John McCain is a steady hand who will be able to
step into our country's most important leadership role with the experience to be
successful."
In March, Baca appeared at a press conference with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to discuss the county's gang problem.
The L.A. Times recently named Baca as one of the 100 most powerful figures in Los Angeles, writing: "His 8,000 deputies protect 2.7 million people and guard America's
biggest jail system. Turnover is high, homicides are up and 150,000
inmates have been released early over the last four years amid crowded
conditions that a federal judge called 'not consistent with basic human
values.' Yet Baca - so quirky that he is known within law enforcement
circles as 'Sheriff Moonbeam' - just won a third term with ease.
(Photo:
Robert Mora/Getty Images)
 More proof there is more than one Clinton running for president:
Former President Bill Clinton came to San Francisco for a recent health care summit, but found himself in a long explanation about U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton's vote to authorize the Iraq war during a question-and-answer session. Mike Sugerman, a reporter moderating the event, tried to move on to health care policy but the former president persisted and waged his finger at Sugerman to let him continue.
Clinton went so long that Sugerman's musical ensemble, the Eyewitness Blues Band, didn't get to play its final set. The star-struck band had hoped Clinton would join them on the sax, like he did on "The Arsenio Hall Show" in 1992. Clinton autographed their set list instead.
Ben Fong-Torres writes that Sugerman received a cell phone call from Clinton shortly afterward: "He was driving toward Monterey after the event when his cell phone
rang. The former president wanted him to e-mail the story of his 2001 heart
attack and recovery, so that he could use it as another example of 'the good
things in the American health-care system.'
"Regarding the finger-wagging
incident, he told Sugerman, 'I know I went long, but I wanted to tell the whole
story. Hillary is getting hammered on her vote, and I wanted to help explain
it.' Finally, he told Sugerman, 'Next time I'm out here I'll prepare and I'll
play my horn with you guys. I just have to get ready.' "
(Photo: Reed Saxon/AP)
Hollywood cash isn't just for Democrats. The Associated Press looked at the entertainment industry's donations to Republican presidential candidates, who are arriving in California this week for a debate at the Reagan Library. Rudy Giuliani has the highest-profile donors:
"Adam Sandler, who shares a love of the New York Yankees with Giuliani and
tapped him for a cameo in his 2003 movie 'Anger Management,' contributed $2,100. 'Frasier' star Kelsey Grammer and his wife donated $6,900.
Mark Vahradian, who produced 'Annapolis' for Paramount, gave $2,100.
Writer- producer Lionel Chetwynd, an Oscar nominee for co-writing 1974's 'The Apprenticeship of Duddy Kravitz,' gave more than $4,200. Brad Grey,
who helped the mayor negotiate a book deal, kicked in $4,200 to
Giuliani's campaign. Grey, the former executive producer of a Giuliani
favorite - the acclaimed HBO mob drama, 'The Sopranos,' also
contributed to Clinton and Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn."
U.S. Sen. John McCain scored mega-producer Jerry Bruckheimer and "Saturday Night Live" creator Lorne Michaels. "Romney had only a single donor in the
first-quarter report listed as an actor, Tamara Gustavson, though he
collected money from producers and writers," the AP reports.
The Simi Valley debate tomorrow is allowing the major Republican candidates to hold fundraisers to scoop up more California cash. McCain has a reception in Beverly Hills today, while Giuliani has events in L.A. and Orange County. Romney held a fundraiser last night in Sacramento, and is planning an appearance on "The Tonight Show With Jay Leno" tonight.
(Photo:
Kevork Djansezian/AP; Matthew Peyton/Getty Images)
Jack Pitney Jr., professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, is playing Nostradamus today on Politico.com, and the immediate future of California doesn't look pretty.
Pitney says the current dry season - the Sierra snowpack is just 29% of normal - could lead to a devastating drought and then scary mudslides when rains come. Add in a major earthquake, along with cats and dogs living together, and the presidential candidates better start packing their disaster-appropriate windbreakers for the Apocalypse Tour 2008.
"The final months of the primary campaign, in fall and winter 2007-2008, may unfold amid frequent disasters and universal anxiety. In the event of wildfires, Democrats will link the charred landscape to global warming. Whatever form the state's misfortune takes, they will blame the Bush administration for skimpy preparation and shoddy response. [Snip.]
"In a post-disaster California primary, Republican candidates will face an electorate demanding federal action. It is not too early for them to develop and discuss ideas for emergency management."
Head for the hills.
U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton has hired "longtime Democratic operative" Ace Smith as her California director for the presidential campaign. He'll be organizing the day-to-day operations in California, rounding up endorsements, corralling volunteers, setting schedules, and offering advice on politics.
"Ace is a talented organizer who knows California and knows what it takes to win," Clinton said in a statement. "We're lucky to have him leading our effort in the Golden State."
Smith once was hired to dig up information about presidential candidate Bill Clinton - for Clinton, to see how vulnerable he would be as a candidate.
Smith is well known to California media as one of the most effective opposition researchers in the state - he can get the goods on almost anyone. Lately, he's been sitting in the front of the bus - managing Democrat Jerry Brown's campaign for attorney general and Antonio Villaraigosa's bid for Los Angeles mayor. They both won. He also worked for Gov. Gray Davis in 2002, researching Republican opponent Bill Simon.
In a 2002 profile by Dion Nissenbaum at the San Jose Mercury News, Smith was described as working out of North Beach building in San Francisco that "once served as a crazed
sniper's perch in 'Dirty Harry'' ... amid stacks of
classical music records doing the governor's dirty work." Smith's father was San Francisco district attorney, but lost a close race for California Attorney General in 1990 against Republican Dan Lungren.
Smith was hired in 1988 by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, where he met Rahm Emanuel, now a congressman. They launched a political consulting firm in 1989 that produced, Nissenbaum writes, "one of Clinton's earliest 'vulnerability
studies' - research reports candidates order on themselves so they
know what their opponent can find out and prepare for the attacks."
(Photo: David B. Parker/Reno Gazette-Journal via AP)
In 2000, then-Secretary of State Bill Jones did something surprising for such a seemingly mild-mannered politician from Fresno. In the middle of a tough Republican primary battle, Jones yanked his support from Texas Gov. George W. Bush and switched to U.S. Sen. John McCain.
Jones, a former Assemblyman who lately has been running an ethanol business, was the highest-ranking Republican in California at the time. The defection embarrassed Bush loyalists who saw the switch as a betrayal - but Jones said McCain was "clearly the Republican Party's best hope for
attracting new voters and winning back the White House this
November."
Bush spokeswoman Margita Thompson, who later worked for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, dismissed the 2000 switch was
insignificant. "Californians are going to respond to Governor Bush's message," she
said. "I don't think this is going to be that significant."
Seven years later, look where Bush is now. Nowhere! And McCain is running for president again - with Jones as his California chairman, the campaign announced today. "He and I share a belief in the need for renewed
leadership in America and I look forward to the discussion with Californians
about what our country can be capable of in the future," McCain said in a statement.
Jones, according to the campaign, "will take the lead on Sen. McCain's political outreach and
use his years of statewide experience on major issues to help advise a
successful statewide effort."
(Photo:
Charlie Neibergall/AP)
Hillary Clinton's boo birds at the California Democratic convention: "Mrs. Clinton isn't the first female politician to get booed onstage at
the California Democratic Convention. In 1994 Dianne Feinstein, running
for U.S. Senate against Republican Michael Huffington (Remember him?
No, I didn’t think so), was widely booed on stage by the delegation for her support of the death penalty.
She then turned around and used the footage in a campaign ad to promote
her tough-on-crime position." Karen Hanretty, The Hill.
(*The booing actually occurred during the 1990 Democratic primary for governor, not 1994 campaign for U.S. Senate.)
The California Democratic Party convention this weekend left some progressive activists with a sour taste, after a procedural move late Sunday killed all debate on toughening up a resolution on the Iraq war. They left vowing to uncover who was responsible ... and study up on Roberts Rules of Order.
For insider-insiders, this is what the convention is all about. Activists said they put a lot of energy into a compromise resolution on impeaching President George W. Bush, which passed, while other issues fell by the wayside. dday writes: "All of the energy put into the impeachment
resolution took away from many of the other priorities of the
Progressive Slate, priorities on which I ran - single-payer health
care, clean money, election protection, net neutrality. None of these
made it out of committee."
But on the floor Sunday, another resolution urged "President Bush to end the U.S. occupation of Iraq and immediately begin the safe and orderly withdrawal of all United States combat forces." Amendments were offered that would "cut off funding totally for the occupation of Iraq, and another
to de-authorize the legislation that took the country to war," dday says.
Then, someone called for a quorum. Since it was the end of the convention, many people predictably had already left the convention hall. No quorum, no vote. Calitics writes that "a lot of people are upset about this - there are people who are saying
they expect parliamentary crap like this to be pulled by the Republican
party, not by Democrats. A quorum is 1155, and there are only 623 delegates. No more business can be conducted. The convention is over."
Sunday also featured speeches by John Edwards, who entered the hall to a pounding hip-hop rhythm and took
more than five minutes to work his way from a side entrance to the
stage, the L.A. Times reports. "He received one of the strongest receptions of the weekend after
delivering perhaps the widest-ranging speech. Bill Richardson delivered a looser, joke-filled address, lamenting at one
point his low standing in opinion polls by referring to a conversation
with his 92-year-old mother. When he told her he was running for
president, he said, she responded, 'President of what?' "
Meanwhile, Barack Obama was at South-Central's First AME Church to commemorate the 15th anniversary of the Los Angeles riots yesterday. "There wasn't anything going on in Los Angeles that was unique to Los
Angeles," Obama told the crowd, which featured singer Stevie Wonder. "If you traveled to Chicago, you would see the
same young men on street corners without hope, without prospects, and
without a sense of any destiny other than ending up in prison or in a
casket."
(Photos:
Lenny Ignelzi/AP; Denis Poroy/AP; Stefano Paltera/AP)
(Photos: Denis Poroy/AP)
"It's time for us to show the world that we are not a country that ships
prisoners in the dead of night to be tortured in far off countries. That we are not a country that runs prisons which lock people away
without ever telling them why they are there or what they are charged
with. We are not a country which preaches compassion to others while
we allow bodies to float down the streets of a major American city."
- U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, in prepared remarks for the Democratic Party convention this afternoon. Full text of Obama's speech to the California convention after the jump.
Democrats at the convention with early reaction to Obama's speech and California visit on their blogs:
- "Unfortunately, the speech is all we get from Obama this weekend. Political hacks speculate that the Senator didn’t want the 3
legislative endorsements he announced to be compared to the more
robust "Hillary caucus" showcased earlier in the day. While Hillary won
the key endorsements, and probably displayed a more disciplined
campaign operation, from where I was sitting, it was Obama that
generated the most enthusiasm." Dave Rand.
- "I strongly disagree with the 'let's not blame anyone and let's come together' generalizations. There is fault to be assigned here. This isn't about the 'same old politics.' We can change the way Washington works, but for hell's sake, this isn't just about how Washington works. It's about reversing evil ideologies. Just my opinion. Still -- excellent section on Iraq. And overall, he crushed Hillary. Absolutely." Calitics.
- "This is what genuine enthusiasm looks and sounds like." Lucas O'Connor.
(Photo: Mike Blake/Reuters)
Read on »
"Somebody said to me that he
wished we could just rewind the 21st century and just eliminate the
Bush-Cheney administration, with all their mistakes and misjudgments. People are ready for leaders who understand it is
our votes who put them in power, our tax dollars that pay the bills." - U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, speaking at the California Democratic Party convention today, from the AP story.
Here are the early reviews from Democrats who listened to Clinton's speech today in San Diego:
"So far I am not wowed by Hillary's speech, and I would say the reaction
of the crowd is tepid at best. The highlight: she talked about
immigration reform and wanting to 'bring people from the shadows.' The
lowlight: The whole 'you are invisible" refrain is really not working
for me.' [Snip] "Ouch. Senator Hillary devoted barely any time to Iraq in her CDP
Convention speech. She didn't admit she made a mistake, even though she
had the perfect opportunity. Really, I'm shocked by what she didn't say."
"She had a nice laundry list, but how can she avoid the biggest issue in
the race? When she finally mentioned Iraq, she lost the crowd. I really
don't see how she can campaign in this environment without admitting
her mistake." Calitics. - Clinton gets a smattering of boos, but passes Democratic convention test. Jason Kinney.
- UPDATE: "Hillary's speech was going fine, IMO, until she got to Iraq. Then she
lost the crowd (and she had them earlier). It was interesting to see
Art Torres and Fabian Nunez shooting daggers with their eyes from the
podium at those delegates hissing and shouting about Hillary's Iraq
policy, particularly when Nunez motioned to have people ejected from
the hall (nobody was AFAIK). Still, I do believe that Hillary was
fairly wide support. I can't tell you how many delegates I saw yelling 'Impeach Bush! Impeach Cheney!' and then holding up their Hillary
signs. I don't think her support is as soft as the netroots think." dday on Calitics.
- UPDATE 2: L.A. Times: Blistering critique on Bush.
(Photo: Lenny Ignelzi/AP)
Family business has kept me from the Democratic convention this weekend, but Calitics has insider stuff for hardcore Democrats, along with the California Majority Report and the California Progress Report. The S.F. Chronicle should have some good stuff through the weekend on their blog, and of course the L.A. Times will have comprehensive coverage from our fine staff.
Speaking of bloggers, Carla Marinucci of the Chronicle says "a record 50 Internet-publication bloggers will join the
estimated 400 credentialed 'mainstream' media in the press room to track the
doings of seven Democratic presidential candidates and 2,100 California party
delegates this weekend" in San Diego.
Brian Leubitz, a UC Berkeley master's candidate in public policy, for example, is attending the convention with nine Calitics staffers - a larger team that many major newspapers, Marinucci reports. Leubitz's site has 5,000 readers daily. She continues:
"But one key state Democratic strategist, speaking on the condition of
anonymity because of concern for riling the netroots crowd, warns that such
efforts are potentially positive and negative.
"Netroots commentary can frequently be intensely personal, even "totally
mean and irrational," the strategist said, with some bloggers finding power in
their ability "to assassinate political characters online."
"It's amplified by the anonymity, and it can be scary that it's so
irresponsible," the insider said. "And it's pulling the mainstream media in
that direction."
Even a night auditor at a San Diego hotel is blogging about this weekend's convention. As they used to say on the Internets: LOL.
(Photos: Denis Poroy/AP)
State treasurer Bill Lockyer, former Gov. Gray Davis, music mogul Quincy Jones, and Motown founder Berry Gordy are endorsing U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton for president, her campaign announced today on the eve of the California Democratic Party convention. Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, who is joining Clinton at a press conference tomorrow in San Diego, received his own special endorsement announcement and conference call with reporters earlier in the week. Full list after the jump.
Read on »
Someone has created a website suggesting that former California controller and failed gubernatorial candidate Steve Westly should be tapped as U.S. Sen. Barack Obama's vice presidential running mate. Westly, you may remember, couldn't get past Democrat Phil Angelides in the primary last year.
The site links to what appears to be a legitimate Westly political site, but the language on ObamaWestly.com doesn't look like anything Westly would approve. Unless he's completely insane. (Checking on that.) A link to the website was sent to me anonymously by the "Info Team."
Here is the information on the site, which was registered Tuesday through a service called Domain Discreet.
ObamaWestly.com includes a doctored Newsweek cover featuring the two men together, and a few lines about how Westly "is a wealthy policy wonk. He is one of the founders of eBay and made a small to medium sized fortune. He can easily raise the big money for the California primary." Sounds like Fat Cat - the costumed plutocrat who followed Westly around in 2006 - is back in action!
UPDATE: Westly spokesman Jacob Hubert said the controller had nothing to do with the site, which appears to have been started by a "misguided supporter." He confirmed that Westly is not completely insane.
Former Clinton spinner Chris Lehane lays out some nuts and bolts for this weekend's Democratic party convention in San Diego, which will feature Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel. (What, no Joe Biden? Snub!)
 Lehane, writing in the Majority Report, says California's new early primary will have an impact on the presidential race if "the situation is like 1992 where there was a more muddled picture coming out of the early states."
But California is important because campaigning here is the best petri dish to judge how a candidate would perform nationally. This is not Iowa, where retail face-time with voters wins elections. He writes:
 "Rather, a broad based message, the ability to communicate over the tube, capacity to manage a large campaign and being able to raise oodles of money are the keys to success in a modern presidential campaign.
"Outside of a national primary, a California primary where candidates are actually competing to win on the ground in the state comes the closest to replicating a national election and, in doing so, will help the party identify that candidate with the skill set that will best translate into a national campaign."
Then Lehane takes a big jump and says the national stage bodes well for people such as Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez and Mayor Gavin Newsom: "Moving the primary up will greatly increase the chances that after a yet-to-be-determined Democrat leaves the White House in 2016, America’s 45th president will be a California Democrat."
Some people thought Gray Davis could be president, too. Also, Lehane has San Diego steakhouse recommendations.
(Photos: Chris Hondros and Brad Barket/AFP-Getty Images)
Here's a video of Fabian's pre-taped endorsement of Hillary in English and here one is in Espanol.
In an unforgivable slight to California's Pig Latin community, there is no anslationtray orfay uoyay. Ummerbay.
-- Jordan Rau
Hillary Clinton has snagged one of the bigger endorsements in California: that of Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez. They are announcing it in Sacramento in about a half hour. Though less well known than LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San Fran mayor Gavin Newsom, Nunez is a big get because of his close relationships with the state's unions and Democratic funders. More in a bit...
Update: Nunez will be a co-chairman of her national campaign.
-- Jordan Rau
This weekend marks perhaps the biggest California Democratic Party convention in decades. Over two days, every major presidential candidate is expected to speak in San Diego - Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Bill Richardson - the best the party can offer in the first presidential race without incumbents since 1952.
The same holds true for the California Libertarian Party, which held its annual state convention in San Ramon last weekend. The five candidates seeking the presidential nomination each spoke for about 30 minutes to Libertarian delegates. From Ballot Access News, emphasis added: "Dave Hollist, a California Libertarian who has sought the party's
presidential nomination twice before, started to use his 30 minutes by
showing a video of himself making a speech. The sound quality was poor.
After ten minutes, state party chair Aaron Starr interrupted the video
presentation and persuaded Hollist that the video was a bad idea, so
Hollist then spoke for himself for ten minutes more. He criticized the
other presidential candidates for not proposing an immediate end to
taxation, and suggested that his idea for contract insurance could
replace the lost tax revenue."
But the crowd really responded to Wayne Allyn Root, the American gambling legend and host of "The Winning Edge." Displaying "impressive oratorical skills," Root said his father helped establish the New York Conservative Party and named Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan as his heroes. Then Root said he wanted to film a reality TV show about his campaign. He took no questions.
Also speaking was Mike Jingozian, whose campaign literature labeled himself as an "independent candidate." Jingozian said it was a catchy phrase to draw attention to his campaign. "His answers probably didn't dispel a feeling among the audience that he may not be sufficiently in sync with party core beliefs," Richard Winger writes. Daniel Imperato, who spoke a smattering of Arabic, followed and said U.S. military forces should stop fighting in Iraq, but remain there. Imperato, Winger writes, "may not be a match for the party"
Looks like Steve Kubby for president again!
No wonder U.S. Sen. Barack Obama is doing so well in fundraising. The presidential candidate from Illinois is sending campaign solicitations to reporters at their offices. (Pictured.)
Obama's solicitation includes a "Dear Friend" letter informing me he is running for president and promising to "rebuild an ethic of politics as broad as our nation's spirit," a business reply envelope, and a color brochure.
Obama's mass mailing is apparently directed at non-Democrats as well as members of his own party, since I'm registered decline-to-state. That's because independents can vote in the Democratic primary this year, unlike with the Republican Party and my dead grandmother. A year after she died at age 94, she is still receiving fund-raising mail from Obama's campaign. For the record, I'm not sending Obama any money and neither is my grandmother.
The Center for Responsive Politics reports that Obama raised $4,156,450
in the first quarter from California, leadings all other candidates in
the cities of Merced, Oakland, San Diego and Santa Cruz. But U.S. Sen.
Hillary Clinton was first in the state, with more than $5 million
overall.
A state-by-state breakdown of presidential campaign contributions shows Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mitt Romney cleaning up in California compared to their counterparts, and the entertainment industry favoring Clinton more than Barack Obama as well. LA Observed. And Center for Responsive Politics.
UPDATE: Also check out the city-by-city rankings (click on the "Metro" tab.) Rudy Giuliani does fairly well in smaller areas such as Salinas, and he leads Republicans in the Riverside-San Bernardino sprawlopolis. John Edwards takes Sacramento and Chico, and Obama does well in Oakland.
Spiderman, Zoolander and Mr. Spock went for Barack Obama, but Hillary Clinton can count on Hugh Hefner and Marla Maples. That's the news from the freshest presidential campaign reports, which show a long list of Hollywood donors to seven major candidates.
A few contributors sat on the fence, such as Steven Spielberg, who donated to both Clinton and Obama. The Illinois senator seemed to attract a hipper crowd than the New York senator, whose celebrity stable looks straight out of a Trousdale Estates cocktail party, circa 1986.
Here's the list, culled from The Hill and the New York Post:
- Clinton:
Candice Bergen,
Christie Brinkley (pictured),
Chevy Chase,
Hugh Hefner,
Christine Lahti,
Barry Manilow,
Rob Reiner, Marla Maples,
Rosie O'Donnell,
Jerry Springer,
Elizabeth Taylor, Steven Spielberg, Timbaland, Barbra Streisand.
Obama:
Jennifer Aniston, Steven Spielberg, Jackson Browne,
Morgan Freeman,
Tom Hanks,
Dennis Haysbert,
Tobey Maguire (pictured above),
Zach Braff, Angela Bassett, Barry Manilow,
Branford Marsalis,
Eddie Murphy,
Ed Norton,
Ben Stiller,
Gene Wilder, Leonard Nimoy.- Christopher Dodd:
Edie Brickell,
Michael Douglas,
Steve Martin,
Lorne Michaels,
Paul Newman,
Elisabeth Shue,
Paul Simon,
Joanne Woodward.
- John Edwards:
Larry David,
Seth Green (pictured),
Don Henley.
- Dennis Kucinich:
Mark Ruffalo
- Bill Richardson:
Michael Douglas,
Rosie O'Donnell,
Rob Reiner
- Rudy Giuliani:
Kelsey Grammer,
John O’Hurley,
Adam Sandler,
Ben Stein.
Seth Green?
Anyway, hat-tip to Wilshire & Washington, which also featured this item: "Christophe, Deja Vu?: According to The Politico, the Edwards campaign paid $400 for a haircut at Beverly Hills-based Torrenueva Hair Designs on Feb. 20 and another $400 on March 7."
(Photos: Ed Betz/AP;
Franck Robichon/EPA;
Charley Gallay/Getty Images)
"Political scientists speak of the communications skills of Reagan,
Thompson and California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, but that is a
tad solemn. Better to call what they do by its simple, professional
name -- acting." - Richard Brookhiser, in the April 16 Time magazine.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney announced his California leadership team this morning. The chairmen are Senate Republican leader Dick Ackerman of Fullerton and former Assemblyman Tony Strickland, who lost his bid to become state controller last year. Romney described Strickland as having "earned a reputation as a taxpayer advocate and for holding government accountable."
Other Romney supporters in California include Assemblyman Anthony Adams of Monrovia; former Assembly Leader Scott Baugh of Huntington Beach; former Assemblyman and Republican Caucus Chair Russ Bough of Yucaipa; Rep. John Campbell of Newport Beach, former California Republican Party Chairman Mike Schroeder, and Strickland's wife, Assemblywoman Audra Strickland of Moorpark.
I'll leave it to the reader to judge the political wattage of that group, but Romney certainly is raising a lot of money in California. He recently told the "Today" show that the bulk of his money has come from the Golden State. Dan Morain reports Romney raised $20.63 million in the first three months of
2007, not counting $2.35 million that he lent himself. Romney out-raised the two Republicans who lead him in the polls -- former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani with $15 million and McCain with $12.5 million. Out of the 50 top donors who contributed a total of $4.1 million in the first quarter, the NY Times reported, $646,500 came from California - second only to Michigan, where his father was governor.
(Photo:
Michael Conroy/AP)
Barack Obama - father of two, Harvard grad, U.S. Senator - tries to get all hip and stuff. Wilshire & Washington, which is produced by Variety, reports there is $500 per-person Obama fundraiser scheduled at trendy Boulevard 3 on April 28.
The host committee includes Taye Diggs (pictured) and Jessica Biel. The nightclub was described by the LA Times as "Hollywood's one-stop shop for conspicuous nightlife consumption, negating the need for a show or a bar or a cab, or anything else save a nearby parking spot."
Laura Kurtzman with the AP is getting a good ride with international and national newspapers over a story today about Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's might-have-been presidential race.
As Lou Cannon, the Reagan biographer, says in the piece: The lovefest by the national media over Schwarzenegger is a safe bet because they will "never have to write about what Arnold does in office, because he'll never be in office." Nevertheless, Kurtzman writes: "However much attention he garners,
Schwarzenegger will have difficulty influencing the terms of the
presidential debate. During the primary, the leading GOP candidates
will be scrambling to appeal to the Republican base – conservative
voters whose views on many issues, from abortion to gay rights, are at
odds with Schwarzenegger's.
"To get the nomination, they're having to move away from who
they are and move away from what Arnold represents," said Chris Lehane,
a Democratic strategist in San Francisco. "One of the reasons why
Arnold is so popular right now is because he's the anti-Bush."
A Field Poll shows former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani with a twelve-point lead
over U.S. Sen. John McCain (36% to 24%) for the 2008 Republican nomination in California's Feb. 5 primary election. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is a distant
third at 7%. No other Republican candidate receives more than 4% of
voter preferences, the poll reported.
In a head-to-head partisan matchup, however, U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Giuliani 53% to 40% in California, the new Field Poll reveals. That lead narrows when Clinton is paired against Sen. John McCain of Arizona (48% to 43%).
Sen. Barack Obama holds his own against the GOP lineup as well. The Illinois senator would maintain a nearly equivalent lead over both Giuliani (51% to 40%) and McCain (51% to 39%), in California. Former Sen. John Edwards currently runs ahead of Giuliani 51% to 41%, but leads McCain by a smaller 49% to 42% margin.
The Field Poll said "very large majorities of state Republican primary voters are familiar with Giuliani and McCain, and both are viewed in a very favorable light. Romney is not as well-known to this state’s likely GOP electorate, with nearly half (47%) having no opinion. However, among those able to rate Romney, more than twice as many view him favorably as unfavorably." Eight percent said they had a favorable opinion of Giuliani, compared to 71% for McCain.
Other tidbits from the Field Poll:
- "Giuliani receives his strongest support among Republican primary voters in Northern California, those age 50 or older and Republicans who do not identify themselves as born-again Christians. McCain does better among Republicans who are ideologically moderate or moderate conservatives, and among voters in Southern California."
- "When Newt Gingrich and Fred Thompson are offered as GOP Presidential possibilities along with the other candidates, Gingrich draws heavily from the state’s strong conservatives and born-again Christians. Thompson’s support is more evenly distributed across the voter subgroups."
Read PDF of the poll results here.
(Photos:
Charles Rex Arbogast/AP; Sgt. Matthew Roe/US Army via AP)
A new Field Poll shows Sen. Hillary Clinton with a comfortable lead among California voters - unless former Vice President Al Gore is added to the mix. Then she's far less comfortable. From the Bee today: 
"The poll found Clinton with a comfortable 13-point head start over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, 41 percent to 28 percent, with former North
Carolina Sen. John Edwards lagging at 13 percent. But when Gore's
name was offered as an alternative, Clinton's support dropped 10 points
to 31 percent, followed by Gore's 25 percent and Obama's 21 percent.
Edwards fell to 8 percent."
In some political circles, Clinton gets a bad rap for being too calculated and cold, while Obama is seen as the fresh face with brash new ideas. But the Field Poll showed likely Democratic voters in California have a fairly high opinion of the former First Lady. Gore scored the highest, with 85% in the Field Poll saying they had a favorable opinion of the former vice president. He was followed closely by Edwards with 83% of those surveyed. Clinton came in third, with 76% saying they liked her - ahead of Obama, with 73%.
Other tidbits from the poll, which is available here by PDF:
- Clinton runs strongest among Latinos, voters with no more than a high school education,
older voters and those living in Los Angeles County.
- Obama possesses strong appeal to younger voters, and leads Clinton narrowly among this
segment.
- Edwards currently runs a little stronger in Northern California than Southern California and
among voters who are permanent absentee voters.
(Photo: Mario Tama/AFP)
Former Senate Republican leader Jim Brulte has endorsed U.S. Sen. John McCain, the Arizona senator's presidential campaign announced today. Brulte is still considered influential in California Republican circles for his ties to the Bush White House and the Schwarzenegger administration.
Since 2004, he has worked for California Strategies, the political and corporate consulting firm run by Schwarzenegger patron Bob White, out of an Inland Empire office.
Brulte served 14 years in the Legislature and was a senior advisor to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's re-election campaign and co-chair of the Bush-Cheney 2000 campaign in California. "With his distinguished record of public service and history of standing up for much-needed reforms, John McCain is the right leader
for these historic times," Brulte said in a statement.
If Fred Thompson, the former Tennessee senator and "Law and Order" actor, runs for president (the real president, not a fake movie one), TV stations across the country likely would cancel any shows featuring him, the Washington Post reports today.
In his career, Thompson has played the president, a White House chief
of staff, a senator, an arms dealer, a rear admiral, a major general, a
lieutenant colonel, the CIA director, a doctor, a detective, an FBI
agent, and a "politician."
The FCC regulations on requiring equal airtime for candidates has been a problem with California politicians as well, the newspaper reminds us: 
"During the 2003 gubernatorial race in California, television
stations dropped all Arnold Schwarzenegger movies out of fear that
showing them would require them to give countless hours of free airtime
to all 134 other candidates for governor. Stations also dropped 'Bedtime for Bonzo' and other Ronald Reagan movies during his campaigns
for governor of California and president."
Still, wasn't it helpful to Schwarzenegger during the 2003 recall to have his action movies removed from the airwaves? He was trying to look serious, while his opponents were painting him as cartoonish and violent. These days, it seems as if a Schwarzenegger movie is playing 24 hours a day somewhere on cable. For a few months in 2003, the FCC was being merciful. (Sarcasm does not apply to "Total Recall" and "Terminator" 1 and 2.)
The liberal Courage Campaign has launched a new website aimed at tracking presidential candidates that use California as a cash ATM rather than talking about "our issues." Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has been selling the same idea - making sure the national candidates are asked tough questions about California.
I'm a bit skeptical - I think presidential candidates do talk about the issues. And what is the functional equivalent in California of an ethanol subsidy to an Iowa voter? Offshore oil drilling perhaps. Otherwise, California voters tend to care about the same things that other voters care about: immigration, health care, traffic, the environment. Still, it does feel cheap when presidential candidates hold California fundraisers without a single public event. Check out ATM Watch, inaugurated by Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez (pictured).
Just a quick follow-up to the Public Policy Institute of California poll. It wasn't included in the main PPIC report, but there are data on what California Latinos think about the Democratic presidential candidates.
The polling samples were too small to draw any conclusions about "likely" Democratic voters or any Republicans by ethnicity or race. The GOP presidential primary is closed to decline-to-state voters; asking Latino Republicans how they would vote in the presidential primary wouldn't give you a large enough statistical sample.
Nevertheless, here is what all registered Democrats say about their presidential choices:
Democratic primary registered voters only |
Latinos |
Whites |
|
| |
