Primary snapshot

May polling by the American Research Group shows former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani remains the favorite among Republican primary voters in California, although his position has slipped and John McCain has jumped to within the margin of error. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has lost his luster, but Sen. Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney jumped.

California
Likely Republican Primary Voters	Jan 2007	May 2007
Brownback	-	1%
Gilmore	-	1%
Giuliani	33%	27%
Gingrich	19%	5%
Hagel	5%	1%
Huckabee	-	1%
Hunter	1%	1%
McCain	18%	24%
Pataki	-	-
Paul	ni	-
Romney	3%	11%
Tancredo	ni	1%
F Thompson	ni	12%
T Thompson	-	1%
Undecided	22%	13%

Among the likely Democratic voters in the Feb. 5 primary, U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton still leads among California voters, while U.S. Sen. Barack Obama has lost a bit of support. John Edwards jumped. The results:

California
Likely Democratic Primary Voters	Jan 2007	May 2007
Biden	1%	2%
Clark	2%	-
Clinton	36%	37%
Dodd	-	2%
Edwards	6%	15%
Gravel	-	-
Kerry	4%	ni
Kucinich	1%	2%
Obama	33%	28%
Richardson	1%	3%
Vilsack	-	ni
Undecided	16%	11%

The polling company conducted 600 telephone interviews among a random sample of voters from each party and independents from May 4-8. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Richardson picks L.A. for announcement

New Mexico Gov. Bill "Give Me a Break, I'm Only at 8%" Richardson formally announces his presidential campaign at 10 a.m. today in Los Angeles at the Millennium Biltmore. Expect a Latino-themed event. You can watch the announcement, along with Richardson's odd but compelling "Job Interview" ad, on his website here.

Rudy's (alleged) dilemma

Rudy Giuliani's California problem: criticize the U.S. Senate's recent immigration overhaul and risk losing the endorsement of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. Stay silent, and risk losing conservatives. So says Mark Levin at the National Review Online. (I don't see Schwarzenegger endorsing any Republican before Feb. 5.)

Will Fred Thompson pull a Schwarzenegger?

Former Sen. Fred Thompson, the "Law and Order" star who is contemplating a run for president, is already being compared to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger for obvious reasons. TV networks may remove his movies from rotation during the 2008 campaign, just like they mercifully did with Schwarzenegger movies during the 2003 recall.

Now, Thompson reportedly has scheduled a June visit to "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno," the same non-confrontational chat show where Schwarzenegger made his own surprise announcement that he was running for governor. Let's speculate!

Schwarzenegger is scheduled to appear Wednesday on "The Tonight Show," by the way. His decision to announce on Leno in 2003 was seen as a nontraditional, populist gimmick calculated to bypass the traditional media. Or it could have been the place where Schwarzenegger felt most comfortable. It worked.

Giuliani: happy birthday to me, California

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's birthday is May 28, but he's nevertheless holding two "birthday celebration" fundraisers two days later in California to collect money for his presidential run. U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton is scheduled to raise money in the state the next day.

Giuliani donors who raise $23,000 for the campaign receive 10 tickets to a VIP reception and, according to the invitation, "PHOTOS and a Preferred table seating of 10 at the Birthday Lunch." Presumably this is where contributors will hear Giuliani's Speech about Fighting Terrorism and watch Giuliani Eat.

(UPDATE: A birthday luncheon is being held in Burlingame May 30, followed the same day by an evening reception at the Beverly Hilton, featuring comedian Dennis Miller.)

Giuliani - with the help of his buddy Bill Simon, the financier who lost to Gray Davis in 2004 - has rounded up some well-known Republican donors on his finance team. They include venture capitalist Tim Draper and Floyd Kvamme, and takeover artist T. Boone Pickens. Giuliani also has Steve Kram, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's former agent, and Michael Huffington, on his team.

The common man

California's only major entry in the 2008 presidential race, Republican Rep. Duncan Hunter, has $75,000 in credit card debt.

Clinton campaign contest includes Dixie Chicks

U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton needs your help.

The presidential candidate has sent out an e-mail to supporters in California and elsewhere with this urgent plea: "We've been working on an important issue--the kind that can make or break a campaign. And your input is absolutely critical to ensuring that we make the right decision. That's right--we're picking our campaign song."

Clinton is asking people to vote on the theme song through her website, here. For political reporters, including a few friends of mine, this choice is CRITICAL. They will have to hear it four to five times a day for the next eight to 18 months. Remember "Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow?" Thanks to Bill Clinton, a lot of people now hate that song.

The potential Hillary Clinton songs include "City of Blinding Lights" by U2 and "I'll Take You There" by The Staple Singers. She also threw in "Ready to Run" by the Bush-bashing Dixie Chicks, pictured with their recent Grammy haul. Please please please don't make it "I'm A Believer" by Smash Mouth.

There is one song from Foreigner her campaign forgot to include.

(Photo: Gabriel Bouys/AFP-Getty Images)

New Democratic debate for California

The Democratic National Committee is going to announce shortly that California has been chosen for one of the six DNC sanctioned presidential debates. It will be December 10th in Los Angeles, broadcast on CBS. They like us, they really like us! Now we get to ask Hillary and Barack about Central Valley water storage.

Opposition research

Anti-immigration activists and Clinton haters are getting some mileage out of an October 1994 video showing labor organizer Fabian Nunez, now the Assembly speaker and a Hillary Clinton supporter, at a Los Angeles rally protesting Proposition 187. The initiative, which passed, was designed to cut off services to illegal immigrants but has since been eviscerated by the courts.

The video shows Nunez on stage at the rally chatting with his friend, Kevin De Leon, now an Assembly member as well, while the U.S. national anthem is played by a trumpet band. The two men, and others on the stage, snap to attention and raise their arms when the Mexican national anthem is played next. (Nunez is obscured behind another man during this, but his fist can be seen in the air.)

On stage, organizers put up U.S. flags featuring the original 13 states - as in, not including California - while members of the audience waved Mexican flags. Several thousand people attended the rally. View videos here.

New Clinton fundraiser planned for California

Former state treasurer Phil Angelides and the wealthy Tsakopoulos family of Sacramento are planning a fundraiser this month for U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign. Angelo Tsakopoulos, a real estate developer, was a major donor to Angelides' gubernatorial campaign.