Primary snapshot

May polling by the American Research Group shows former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani remains the favorite among Republican primary voters in California, although his position has slipped and John McCain has jumped to within the margin of error. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has lost his luster, but Sen. Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney jumped.

California
Likely Republican Primary Voters	Jan 2007	May 2007
Brownback	-	1%
Gilmore	-	1%
Giuliani	33%	27%
Gingrich	19%	5%
Hagel	5%	1%
Huckabee	-	1%
Hunter	1%	1%
McCain	18%	24%
Pataki	-	-
Paul	ni	-
Romney	3%	11%
Tancredo	ni	1%
F Thompson	ni	12%
T Thompson	-	1%
Undecided	22%	13%

Among the likely Democratic voters in the Feb. 5 primary, U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton still leads among California voters, while U.S. Sen. Barack Obama has lost a bit of support. John Edwards jumped. The results:

California
Likely Democratic Primary Voters	Jan 2007	May 2007
Biden	1%	2%
Clark	2%	-
Clinton	36%	37%
Dodd	-	2%
Edwards	6%	15%
Gravel	-	-
Kerry	4%	ni
Kucinich	1%	2%
Obama	33%	28%
Richardson	1%	3%
Vilsack	-	ni
Undecided	16%	11%

The polling company conducted 600 telephone interviews among a random sample of voters from each party and independents from May 4-8. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Another poll bolsters term limits change

Two thirds of California voters believe that the terms of elected officials should be limited. But voters are nevertheless inclined to modify the state's term limits law and allow lawmakers to serve 12 years in a single house, rather than 14 years divided between the Assembly and Senate, a new survey found. The Field Poll found 53% of likely primary voters would support such a modification, with 39% opposed. PDF poll results here.

Two countries

Californians generally believe the state is headed in the right direction, like Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, hate the war in Iraq and think President George W. Bush lies to them, according to a new survey by the Survey and Policy Research Institute at San Jose State University. The difference of opinion about the direction of the country compared to the direction of California is striking: voters apparently see the Golden State as an island. PDF version here.

Here are the results of the survey among voters:

Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track?

• Right direction 52%
• Wrong track 38%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor?

• Approve 62%
• Disapprove 29%

Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track?

• Right direction 27%
• Wrong track 66%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

• Approve 23%
• Disapprove 72%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?

• Approve 21%
• Disapprove 75%

Do you think the war in Iraq has made the United States safer, less safe, or hasn’t it had an effect on the safety of the United States?

• Safer 20%
• Less safe 51%
• No effect 24%

Generally speaking, do you believe that what President Bush tells the American people is true?

• Yes 28%
• No 67%

Polls differ on assisted suicide

The League of United Latin American Citizens is circulating a poll by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates about an assisted-suicide measure making its way through the California Legislature. The poll wound up here (LULAC didn't send it to me), and it shows Latinos have big problems with the bill.

The legislation has been endorsed by Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, who is Catholic, leading to bitter condemnation from Cardinal Roger Mahony.

Not surprisingly, the heavily Catholic Latino community is overwhelmingly opposed to assisted suicide, the poll found. Almost two thirds - 64% - of California Latinos said they disapproved of doctor-assisted suicide. Only 29% said they approved. About half of the Latino voters surveyed "strongly" disapproved of the practice, while only 12% "strongly approved."

However, a Field Poll last year found almost exactly the opposite result: 65% of Latinos in favor of assisted suicide, with 31% opposed. Among all California adults, 70% said they supported a change in the law. Previous statewide Field polls have shown majority support from Latinos for assisted suicide as well. Another recent poll by David Binder conducted for supporters found 54% support from Latinos, and 31% opposed.

In the Fairbank poll, Latinos found arguments against doctor-assisted suicide much more persuasive than messages in favor of the practice, the poll showed. The survey-takers went through several arguments surrounding the controversial debate. At the very least, this gives a good idea of how the opposition will fight the legislation. The polling firm said:

"Specifically, Latinos are strongly influenced by the argument that the most basic law is 'thou shall not kill,' and it is morally wrong to legally sanction a form of murder. Latinos also regard improvements in end-of-life care, such as advancements in pain and anti-depression medications, as a valid reason to oppose doctors assisted suicide. Further, the survey results indicate that Latinos are concerned that legalizing doctor-assisted suicide could lead to insurance companies denying life-sustaining treatment to a patient diagnosed with a terminal illness." [Emphasis added.]

The sample for the Fairbank poll was 325 adult Latinos. The margin of error was plus or minus 5.4%. The legislation, co-authored by Assemblyman Lloyd Levine (pictured with Nunez), is awaiting a vote in the Assembly Appropriations Committee.

(Photos: Rich Pedroncelli/AP)

Bass Player

Some well-known politicians in Compton and Inglewood want the state Senate seat now held by Ed Vincent, who is termed out next year. The crowded field includes Assemblyman Mervyn Dymally, former assemblymen Rod Wright and Jerome Horton. But "the most likely candidate to win the Senate 25th District seat isn't even in the race. Yet. That's one conclusion you could draw from an early, very early, poll showing that Karen Bass could steal the election from the crowded field of Democrats already in the race." Capitol Weekly.

Clinton Has Big Lead Among California Latino Democrats

Just a quick follow-up to the Public Policy Institute of California poll. It wasn't included in the main PPIC report, but there are data on what California Latinos think about the Democratic presidential candidates.

The polling samples were too small to draw any conclusions about "likely" Democratic voters or any Republicans by ethnicity or race. The GOP presidential primary is closed to decline-to-state voters; asking Latino Republicans how they would vote in the presidential primary wouldn't give you a large enough statistical sample.

Nevertheless, here is what all registered Democrats say about their presidential choices:

Democratic primary registered voters only	Latinos	Whites
Hillary Clinton	42%	31%
Barack Obama	14	24
John Edwards	12	18
Bill Richardson	8	6
Other candidates	8	8
Don't know	16	13

The lone Latino in the Democratic field, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, scores low among California Latinos probably because his name is "Bill Richardson"—very Anglo. Not that Latinos would vote for him just because he's the same ethnicity, but Richardson must get his name identification higher in California if he wants to go anyplace here. He's scheduled to speak next month at the state Democratic convention.

California Hearts New York: Clinton, Giuliani Lead Early Pack

U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani are leading among likely voters in the Feb. 5 California presidential primary, according to the new Public Policy Institute of California survey. The poll was based on a telephone survey of 2,000 California adult residents interviewed from March 13 to 20.

Democrats:

• Hillary Clinton ... 35%
• Barack Obama ... 24%
• John Edwards ... 14%
• Bill Richardson ... 6%
• Others ... 8%
• Don't know ... 13%

Republicans

• Rudy Giuliani ... 33%
• John McCain ... 19%
• Newt Gingrich ... 14%
• Mitt Romney ... 7%
• Others ... 14%
• Don't know ... 13%

In the crosstabs a few interesting things emerged. Perhaps not surprising, there is a big gender gap with Clinton, who received 28% support from the men surveyed and 40% from the women.

Conservative voters also favored Giuliani with 32% support in the survey, compared to 18% for former House Speaker New Gingrich and only 9% for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Both men are considered far more conservative than the former New York mayor, but Giuliani has campaigned in California multiple times over recent weeks—including the last state GOP convention. He's also actively courting conservatives using his friend, Bill Simon, the financier who ran against Gray Davis for governor of California in 2002.

Incidentally, the PPIC survey also found Maria Shriver is polling better than her husband:

"Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California?"

• 51% approve
• 38% disapprove
• 11% don’t know

"Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Maria Shriver, California's First Lady?"

• 53% favorable
• 14% unfavorable
• 33% don’t know

(Photos: Charlie Neibergall / AP; Jae C. Hong / AP)

A Light Bulb Goes Off

State Sen. Sheila Kuehl has one of the wealthiest and most liberal districts in the country--a key Democratic prize when she is termed out next year. Although the primary is more than a year away, a new private poll shows possible contender Assemblyman Lloyd Levine, pictured, must make some noise in the "Valley-to-the-Sea" district if he wants to be noticed.

The March 8-11 Greenberg/Quinlan/Rosner Research poll showed only 26% of voters surveyed in the 23rd Senate district could identify Levine. The survey was conducted for EdVoice.

Levine, who represents the 40th district, scored just four points higher than a guy named Dan Weitzman, a Democratic fund-raiser who doesn't live in the district and almost never appears in the media. Assemblywoman Fran Pavley, who is expected to compete for the Kuehl senate seat as well, did far better. The name-identification results:

• Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger ... 98%
• Former State Sen. Tom Hayden ... 80%
• State Sen. Sheila Kuehl ... 64%
• U.S. Rep. Howard Berman ... 54%
• Assemblywoman Fran Pavley  ... 42%
• Assemblyman Mike Feuer ... 38%
• Assemblywoman Julie Brownley  ... 37%
• Assemblyman Lloyd Levine  ... 26%
• Dan Weitzman  ... 22%

Levine, however, could have already boosted his profile with 2007 legislation to outlaw the sale of incandescent light bulbs and with his opposition to building a liquefied natural gas facility in Malibu. The light bulb bill has brought Levine international attention, not all of it favorable. But it will be hard to top the publicity Pavley received for sponsoring global warming legislation under two governors (pictured with Gov. Gray Davis in 2002)--undoubtedly the reason she is recognized by 42% of those surveyed.

(Photos: Marsaili McGrath / Getty Images; Bob Pepping / AP)

Voters Like the New Schwarzenegger, Mostly

Four weeks after his reelection, a SurveyUSA poll shows Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger with a 55% approval rating. The poll reveals a partisan split: Eighty percent of Republicans approved of Schwarzenegger's job performance, while just 39% of Democrats were satisfied. Fifty-four percent of Democrats disapproved.

Union members were evenly split in their opinion of Schwarzenegger, while gun owners favored him. Majorities of both anti-abortion and pro-choice voters approved of his performance. The poll was conducted by telephone with a recorded voice asking the questions. Read the results here.

Voters Say They Want Initiative Reforms, More Debates

The Public Policy Institute of California has a sort of exit poll taken over 12 days after the November election and focused on the mood of voters. The state seems to be a lot happier than during The Troubles when Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger tried to inflict pain on Democrats.

Now, voters are giving the Republican governor much higher marks than last year. His approval rating has jumped from just 39% of those surveyed to 60%. In the 2006 election, Schwarzenegger even received 26% support from self-described "liberals," the poll found. The state Legislature, meanwhile, still has fairly low approval ratings - just 36%.

Some interesting results about the initiative process, which voters think is awash in too much money: Eighty percent said they favor a cooling-off period before initiatives go to the ballot - to see if the Legislature and initiative backers could find a compromise solution. Eighty-four percent said they want better disclosure of who is paying for the signature gathering for initiatives. Sixty-seven percent said they would favor requiring the candidates for governor to participate in five televised, prime-time debates.

Read a PDF file of the poll here.