Primary snapshot

May polling by the American Research Group shows former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani remains the favorite among Republican primary voters in California, although his position has slipped and John McCain has jumped to within the margin of error. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has lost his luster, but Sen. Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney jumped.

California
Likely Republican Primary Voters	Jan 2007	May 2007
Brownback	-	1%
Gilmore	-	1%
Giuliani	33%	27%
Gingrich	19%	5%
Hagel	5%	1%
Huckabee	-	1%
Hunter	1%	1%
McCain	18%	24%
Pataki	-	-
Paul	ni	-
Romney	3%	11%
Tancredo	ni	1%
F Thompson	ni	12%
T Thompson	-	1%
Undecided	22%	13%

Among the likely Democratic voters in the Feb. 5 primary, U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton still leads among California voters, while U.S. Sen. Barack Obama has lost a bit of support. John Edwards jumped. The results:

California
Likely Democratic Primary Voters	Jan 2007	May 2007
Biden	1%	2%
Clark	2%	-
Clinton	36%	37%
Dodd	-	2%
Edwards	6%	15%
Gravel	-	-
Kerry	4%	ni
Kucinich	1%	2%
Obama	33%	28%
Richardson	1%	3%
Vilsack	-	ni
Undecided	16%	11%

The polling company conducted 600 telephone interviews among a random sample of voters from each party and independents from May 4-8. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Another poll bolsters term limits change

Two thirds of California voters believe that the terms of elected officials should be limited. But voters are nevertheless inclined to modify the state's term limits law and allow lawmakers to serve 12 years in a single house, rather than 14 years divided between the Assembly and Senate, a new survey found. The Field Poll found 53% of likely primary voters would support such a modification, with 39% opposed. PDF poll results here.

Two countries

Californians generally believe the state is headed in the right direction, like Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, hate the war in Iraq and think President George W. Bush lies to them, according to a new survey by the Survey and Policy Research Institute at San Jose State University. The difference of opinion about the direction of the country compared to the direction of California is striking: voters apparently see the Golden State as an island. PDF version here.

Here are the results of the survey among voters:

Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track?

• Right direction 52%
• Wrong track 38%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor?

• Approve 62%
• Disapprove 29%

Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track?

• Right direction 27%
• Wrong track 66%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

• Approve 23%
• Disapprove 72%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?

• Approve 21%
• Disapprove 75%

Do you think the war in Iraq has made the United States safer, less safe, or hasn’t it had an effect on the safety of the United States?

• Safer 20%
• Less safe 51%
• No effect 24%

Generally speaking, do you believe that what President Bush tells the American people is true?

• Yes 28%
• No 67%

Polls differ on assisted suicide

The League of United Latin American Citizens is circulating a poll by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates about an assisted-suicide measure making its way through the California Legislature. The poll wound up here (LULAC didn't send it to me), and it shows Latinos have big problems with the bill.

The legislation has been endorsed by Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, who is Catholic, leading to bitter condemnation from Cardinal Roger Mahony.

Not surprisingly, the heavily Catholic Latino community is overwhelmingly opposed to assisted suicide, the poll found. Almost two thirds - 64% - of California Latinos said they disapproved of doctor-assisted suicide. Only 29% said they approved. About half of the Latino voters surveyed "strongly" disapproved of the practice, while only 12% "strongly approved."

However, a Field Poll last year found almost exactly the opposite result: 65% of Latinos in favor of assisted suicide, with 31% opposed. Among all California adults, 70% said they supported a change in the law. Previous statewide Field polls have shown majority support from Latinos for assisted suicide as well. Another recent poll by David Binder conducted for supporters found 54% support from Latinos, and 31% opposed.

In the Fairbank poll, Latinos found arguments against doctor-assisted suicide much more persuasive than messages in favor of the practice, the poll showed. The survey-takers went through several arguments surrounding the controversial debate. At the very least, this gives a good idea of how the opposition will fight the legislation. The polling firm said:

"Specifically, Latinos are strongly influenced by the argument that the most basic law is 'thou shall not kill,' and it is morally wrong to legally sanction a form of murder. Latinos also regard improvements in end-of-life care, such as advancements in pain and anti-depression medications, as a valid reason to oppose doctors assisted suicide. Further, the survey results indicate that Latinos are concerned that legalizing doctor-assisted suicide could lead to insurance companies denying life-sustaining treatment to a patient diagnosed with a terminal illness." [Emphasis added.]

The sample for the Fairbank poll was 325 adult Latinos. The margin of error was plus or minus 5.4%. The legislation, co-authored by Assemblyman Lloyd Levine (pictured with Nunez), is awaiting a vote in the Assembly Appropriations Committee.

(Photos: Rich Pedroncelli/AP)

Bass Player

Some well-known politicians in Compton and Inglewood want the state Senate seat now held by Ed Vincent, who is termed out next year. The crowded field includes Assemblyman Mervyn Dymally, former assemblymen Rod Wright and Jerome Horton. But "the most likely candidate to win the Senate 25th District seat isn't even in the race. Yet. That's one conclusion you could draw from an early, very early, poll showing that Karen Bass could steal the election from the crowded field of Democrats already in the race." Capitol Weekly.

Clinton Has Big Lead Among California Latino Democrats

Just a quick follow-up to the Public Policy Institute of California poll. It wasn't included in the main PPIC report, but there are data on what California Latinos think about the Democratic presidential candidates.

The polling samples were too small to draw any conclusions about "likely" Democratic voters or any Republicans by ethnicity or race. The GOP presidential primary is closed to decline-to-state voters; asking Latino Republicans how they would vote in the presidential primary wouldn't give you a large enough statistical sample.

Nevertheless, here is what all registered Democrats say about their presidential choices:

Democratic primary registered voters only	Latinos	Whites
Hillary Clinton	42%	31%
Barack Obama	14	24
John Edwards	12	18
Bill Richardson	8	6
Other candidates	8	8
Don't know	16	13

The lone Latino in the Democratic field, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, scores low among California Latinos probably because his name is "Bill Richardson"—very Anglo. Not that Latinos would vote for him just because he's the same ethnicity, but Richardson must get his name identification higher in California if he wants to go anyplace here. He's scheduled to speak next month at the state Democratic convention.

California Hearts New York: Clinton, Giuliani Lead Early Pack

U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani are leading among likely voters in the Feb. 5 California presidential primary, according to the new Public Policy Institute of California survey. The poll was based on a telephone survey of 2,000 California adult residents interviewed from March 13 to 20.

Democrats:

• Hillary Clinton ... 35%
• Barack Obama ... 24%
• John Edwards ... 14%
• Bill Richardson ... 6%
• Others ... 8%
• Don't know ... 13%

Republicans

• Rudy Giuliani ... 33%
• John McCain ... 19%
• Newt Gingrich ... 14%
• Mitt Romney ... 7%
• Others ... 14%
• Don't know ... 13%

In the crosstabs a few interesting things emerged. Perhaps not surprising, there is a big gender gap with Clinton, who received 28% support from the men surveyed and 40% from the women.

Conservative voters also favored Giuliani with 32% support in the survey, compared to 18% for former House Speaker New Gingrich and only 9% for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Both men are considered far more conservative than the former New York mayor, but Giuliani has campaigned in California multiple times over recent weeks—including the last state GOP convention. He's also actively courting conservatives using his friend, Bill Simon, the financier who ran against Gray Davis for governor of California in 2002.

Incidentally, the PPIC survey also found Maria Shriver is polling better than her husband:

"Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California?"

• 51% approve
• 38% disapprove
• 11% don’t know

"Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Maria Shriver, California's First Lady?"

• 53% favorable
• 14% unfavorable
• 33% don’t know

(Photos: Charlie Neibergall / AP; Jae C. Hong / AP)

A Light Bulb Goes Off

State Sen. Sheila Kuehl has one of the wealthiest and most liberal districts in the country--a key Democratic prize when she is termed out next year. Although the primary is more than a year away, a new private poll shows possible contender Assemblyman Lloyd Levine, pictured, must make some noise in the "Valley-to-the-Sea" district if he wants to be noticed.

The March 8-11 Greenberg/Quinlan/Rosner Research poll showed only 26% of voters surveyed in the 23rd Senate district could identify Levine. The survey was conducted for EdVoice.

Levine, who represents the 40th district, scored just four points higher than a guy named Dan Weitzman, a Democratic fund-raiser who doesn't live in the district and almost never appears in the media. Assemblywoman Fran Pavley, who is expected to compete for the Kuehl senate seat as well, did far better. The name-identification results:

• Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger ... 98%
• Former State Sen. Tom Hayden ... 80%
• State Sen. Sheila Kuehl ... 64%
• U.S. Rep. Howard Berman ... 54%
• Assemblywoman Fran Pavley  ... 42%
• Assemblyman Mike Feuer ... 38%
• Assemblywoman Julie Brownley  ... 37%
• Assemblyman Lloyd Levine  ... 26%
• Dan Weitzman  ... 22%

Levine, however, could have already boosted his profile with 2007 legislation to outlaw the sale of incandescent light bulbs and with his opposition to building a liquefied natural gas facility in Malibu. The light bulb bill has brought Levine international attention, not all of it favorable. But it will be hard to top the publicity Pavley received for sponsoring global warming legislation under two governors (pictured with Gov. Gray Davis in 2002)--undoubtedly the reason she is recognized by 42% of those surveyed.

(Photos: Marsaili McGrath / Getty Images; Bob Pepping / AP)

Voters Like the New Schwarzenegger, Mostly

Four weeks after his reelection, a SurveyUSA poll shows Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger with a 55% approval rating. The poll reveals a partisan split: Eighty percent of Republicans approved of Schwarzenegger's job performance, while just 39% of Democrats were satisfied. Fifty-four percent of Democrats disapproved.

Union members were evenly split in their opinion of Schwarzenegger, while gun owners favored him. Majorities of both anti-abortion and pro-choice voters approved of his performance. The poll was conducted by telephone with a recorded voice asking the questions. Read the results here.

Voters Say They Want Initiative Reforms, More Debates

The Public Policy Institute of California has a sort of exit poll taken over 12 days after the November election and focused on the mood of voters. The state seems to be a lot happier than during The Troubles when Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger tried to inflict pain on Democrats.

Now, voters are giving the Republican governor much higher marks than last year. His approval rating has jumped from just 39% of those surveyed to 60%. In the 2006 election, Schwarzenegger even received 26% support from self-described "liberals," the poll found. The state Legislature, meanwhile, still has fairly low approval ratings - just 36%.

Some interesting results about the initiative process, which voters think is awash in too much money: Eighty percent said they favor a cooling-off period before initiatives go to the ballot - to see if the Legislature and initiative backers could find a compromise solution. Eighty-four percent said they want better disclosure of who is paying for the signature gathering for initiatives. Sixty-seven percent said they would favor requiring the candidates for governor to participate in five televised, prime-time debates.

Read a PDF file of the poll here.

Tuesday Afternoon Quarterbacking

The Times' Nancy Vogel just returned from an election analysis session at the Sacramento Press Club with leaders of the state's two big public polls: Mark DiCamillo of the Field Poll and Mark Baldassare of the Public Policy Institute of California. The highlights:

The Schwarzenegger Straddle: "He held on, according to the exit polls, to 93% of the GOP base," said DiCamillo. "And while he was able to hold on to that base he was winning over swing voters — he won 59% of independents, 58% of moderates — and making inroads in traditional Democratic constituencies. He won 39% of the Latino votes according to media exit poll, 27% of blacks, 55% of women. Those are impressive numbers for a Republican."

Every Reep for Himself: "Yet the governor's reelection win was more a personal win for the party of Arnold Schwarzenegger than for the GOP," DiCamillo said. "The governor chose not to campaign with other GOP candidates and by design distanced himself from the president at almost every opportunity. This resulted in an election with no real coattails, the Democrats winning all statewide down-ballot races except insurance commissioner and the reason for their winning insurance commissioner had more to do with the Democratic candidate than the Republican candidate."

Craptacular Turnout: "Another way that California distinguished itself from the U.S. in this election was voter turnout," DiCamillo said. "While turnout was up nationally, interest was high, here in California we probably set an all-time low for a statewide election in turnout. It's hard to believe that we would have a lower turnout than the [Gray Davis-William Simon gubernatorial] race of four years ago, but it seems that way, all the votes are not yet counted but it will probably be somewhere in the 50% of registered voters as a turnout. We're probably looking at a structural, long-term factor of low turnout. In primary elections we're looking at 1 out of 3 registered voters turning out. In general elections we're looking at about 1 out of 2. I think that's going to carry on for the foreseeable future."

Really Absentee Voters: "A lot of this has to do I think with the changing demographics of California voters," DiCamillo said. "If you look at the two fastest-growing voter registration groups...they're Latinos and nonpartisans. Both of those voting groups are much less frequent voters than older voters, white voters, partisans. In the primary, for example, 89% of all voters were Democrats or Republicans. So even though we have this massive increase in nonpartisan registration, they don't show up at the polls. They're infrequent voters."

The Parties Over: "The absolute number of Democrats and Republicans have declined since the recall, as have the Greens, Peace & Freedom, Natural Law and libertarians," Baldassare said. "Independents grew by about 484,000 while the overall voter roll grew by 400,000. The lack of party loyalty explains why, in a state like California, Phil Angelides can lose, Schwarzenegger does not have coattails, California has returned a divided government to Sacramento and partisan appeals fail to sway voters on state propositions."

The Man is Still The Man: Exit polls show the majority of voters are white, 45 and older, college-educated and homeowners, said Baldassare. "Voters do not come close to reflecting the ethnic, racial and economic diversity of the state and the GOP and Democratic parties show a lack of ability and interest to expand the size and composition of the state's electorate."

Bad News for Red (and Orange) California: Baldassare said both parties seem to be struggling with low turnout across the Central Valley, Orange County, Riverside and San Bernardino — "all growing regions that are undergoing significant demographic and economic changes in the voting age population."

—Jordan Rau

Schwarzenegger and the Ethnic Vote

The L.A. Times exit poll shows Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's courting of Latinos, Asian Americans and other ethnic communities proved effective, even if his margin of victory was so great the Republican likely would have won reelection without making the effort.

In fact, the 2006 gubernatorial race was fairly lopsided — 75% of voters were white, in a diverse state where whites make up about 46% of the population. While about 32% of California's adult population is Latino, only 12% voted Tuesday, the exit poll showed. Schwarzenegger's attention to ethnic minorities may have helped his cause a bit, it didn't push up turnout. Here is a good PPIC report on voting patterns.

But Schwarzenegger's fundraising among Indian Americans, courting of the African American press and churches, outreach to Filipino, Korean and Chinese Americans and airing of Spanish language ads could help the Republican party make inroads in the future where they often have failed.

Some excerpts from the poll, which is available here.

• DEMOCRATS: Schwarzenegger 26% - Angelides 70%
• REPUBLICANS: Schwarzenegger 91% - Angelides 6%
• INDEPENDENTS: Schwarzenegger 53% - Angelides 34%
• WOMEN: Schwarzenegger 53% - Angelides 42%
• MEN: Schwarzenegger 59% - Angelides 36%
• WHITE: Schwarzenegger 62% - Angelides 33%
• BLACK: Schwarzenegger 31% - Angelides 64%
• LATINO: Schwarzenegger 33% - Angelides 61%
• ASIAN: Schwarzenegger 57% - Angelides 41%
• STRAIGHT: Schwarzenegger 59% - Angelides 36%
• GAY: Schwarzenegger 32% - Angelides 61%

L.A. Times Exit Poll: Bonds Doing Well, Arnold Up

Statewide Races: Preliminary results from an L.A. Times exit poll show Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger leads Democrat Phil Angelides by a comfortable margin.

The race between Democrat John Garamendi and Republican Tom McClintock for lieutenant governor is much tighter. In the race for attorney general, Democrat Jerry Brown also is leading Republican Chuck Poochigian in the preliminary results.

Voters seem to be very discerning. Angelides is getting fewer nods from Democrats than Schwarzenegger is getting from Republicans. Independents seem to be heading in Schwarznegger's direction. Voters who made a decision for governor since the weekend were evenly split between Angelides and Schwarzenegger, but Schwarzenegger was getting voters who decided awhile back on the race. A majority of union members favored Angelides, but Garamendi and Brown were getting larger margins of union households.

Two major initiatives — Proposition 86, the cigarette tax, and Proposition 87, the oil tax to pay for alternative fuels — were too close to call based on exit polling. The oil tax increase was doing slightly better than the cigarette tax increase. The absentee ballots were trending heavily in the "no" category for the initiatives, but poll voters were making the race tighter.

The infrastructure bonds are doing well, all leading with healthy margins. Independent voters were trending heavily toward approving the bonds.

Housing For The Poor Trends Down, Others OK

A new Field Poll shows a majority of voters approving five bonds on Tuesday's ballot to rebuild California's infrastructure. All of the bonds -- supported by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Democratic Legislature -- have been trending upward, except a $2.9 billion bond to build low-income housing, shelters for battered women and services for the homeless.

The poll shows that people voting for state Treasurer Phil Angelides are supporting the bonds by a far wider margin than people voting for Schwarzenegger, even though the Republican governor made the infrastructure package a centerpiece of his 2006 agenda.

Congressional Poll: Pombo Endangered, Doolittle Slim Lead

Since we're in a polling mood today, here is an update on the two closely watched congressional races in California.

Constituent Dynamics, a polling firm that operates out of Seattle and Nagoya, Japan, has a poll showing Democrat Jerry McNerney slightly ahead of incumbent Republican Rep. Richard Pombo, the target of a big push by environmentalists to unseat him. The poll of 900 likely voters shows McNerney with 48% of those surveyed compared to 46% for Pombo.

The other contested congressional seat in California looks somewhat better for Republicans. Rep. John Doolittle leads Democrat Charlie Brown by three points, 49% to 46%. Doolittle benefits from a rural Northern California district with an 18-point registration advantage for the Republican Party, while the GOP has a 6-point lead in Pombo's Bay Area/Central Valley district.

In celebrity news, Jennifer Garner and Ben Affleck are set to appear Saturday at a Defenders of Wildlife rally to defeat Pombo. First Lady Laura Bush shows up for Pombo on Friday, and former President Clinton headlines a get-out-the-vote rally for McNerney in Stockton tonight.

Reaction to the Field Poll: Tidal Wave for Schwarzenegger

A new Field Poll shows Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger with a 16-point lead over state Treasurer Phil Angelides. From the news today: It's the widest margin in two decades for a front-running gubernatorial candidate just days before the election. Angelides campaign office, meanwhile, has been plastered with posters and images of waves — as in, the Democratic tidal wave from the East Coast they hope won't stop at Reno.

• Schwarzenegger and his aides "grow more and more confident every day,'' strategist Matthew Dowd told the San Jose Mercury News. If Schwarzenegger emerges from the election with a mandate, he said, it will be a mandate for bipartisanship and consensus. "I hope people in Washington and around the country are paying attention, because that's what people want.''

• "Every poll we've taken this year has been better for the governor," Mark DiCamillo, the poll's director told the S.F. Chronicle. "This incredible turnaround is continuing through election day.... For Angelides, they're just voting for the 'D.' Schwarzenegger has been more bipartisan this year, and people are rewarding him for it."

• "That's why I have to admit that there are a few things that don't seem to jive in the poll. First, the Angelides lead over Schwarzenegger among Latinos is just 40% to 36%. That's wildly off from every other poll I've seen. There's also a statistical tie among union households at 40% to 39% for Arnold. Hard to believe," said Steve Maviglio, spokesman for Angelides, on his blog.

• "Adios, Angelides." Red State.

• "My sense is that Angelides lost the race in the summer, and consequently he's not in position to win now," Tony Quinn, an editor of the California Target Book, which handicaps political races, told the Sacramento Bee. "You've got to be on the surfboard before the Democratic wave hits, and he's not even on the surfboard."

• "But the interesting nuggets seem to be this...first, 63% of those who said they will vote for the governor say it's because his stance on the issues, an indication among many of how Schwarzenegger continues to avoid his party's pigeon hole. In fact, the governor leads his challenger by 11 points (39% to 28%) among the all-important independent voters." KQED'S John Myers weblog.

Palo Alto Firm Releases New Poll

An Internet poll by Polimetrix, developed by a Stanford political science professor, shows Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger with a 10-point lead over state Treasurer Phil Angelides. The polling company claims to have developed "a unique sample selection methodology that combines a large Internet panel with voter and consumer databases to create representative voter samples."

The poll was conducted for the Hoover Institution. Take the following results for what you will.

• Governor: Schwarzenegger 50%, Angelides 40%



• Lieutenant governor: John Garamendi 51%, Tom McClintock 45%



• Attorney general: Jerry Brown 58%, Chuck Poochigian 37%



• Controller: John Chiang 52%, Tony Strickland 40%



• Secretary of state: Debra Bowen 50%, Bruce McPherson 43%



• Treasurer: Bill Lockyer 55%, Claude Parrish 37%



• Insurance commissioner: Steve Poizner 55%, Cruz Bustamante 36%



• U.S. Senate: Dianne Feinstein 57%, Richard Mountjoy 39%

Initiatives

• Prop. 85, parental notification: 42% yes, 51% no



• Prop. 86, cigarette tax: 49% yes, 47% no



• Prop. 87, oil tax: 49% yes, 44% no



• Prop. 88, parcel tax: 31% yes, 60% no



• Prop. 89, campaign finance: 35% yes, 52% no



• Prop. 90, eminent domain: 58% yes, 28% no

The company said about the poll: "Participating in the survey were 877 likely voters belonging to the PollingPoint Internet panel. Panelists were selected to match a random sample drawn from the California voter list by age, gender, race, party registration and residence. The margin of error for the survey estimates is approximately plus or minus 3.5%."

Now They Tell Me: No Times Poll

Kevin Roderick reports that my newspaper isn't doing a preelection poll. "Apparently the LAT-Bloomberg partnership doesn't include state polls, and The Times didn't want to absorb the cost alone this time around," Roderick reports. However, L.A. Times editor Doug Frantz "confirms that The Times will conduct an election day exit poll, usually a more labor-intensive and costly endeavor than the preelection poll."

Exit polls are far more valuable than preelection polls. You get a good snapshot of the electorate when it actually has meaning: just after they vote, not before. Candidates and reporters may care about the horse-race, but I'm much more interested in where voters ended up when the dust clears.

Getting to Know You

Deep inside in the new Public Policy Institute of California poll is this nugget: "Whose ads have you seen the most?" Surprisingly, a large percentage of those surveyed said they had seen Phil Angelides' TV ads more than Arnold Schwarzenegger's ads.

Angelides won by a 12-point margin in this category, 37% to 25%. And yet, Angelides remains mired behind Schwarzenegger in the poll. Voters see him on TV, and nothing changes. To be fair, these people may be thinking they are seeing an "Angelides ad" when in fact they've absorbed tens of millions of dollars of negative ads attacking him. They just see him on TV a lot, thanks to his opponents.

Nevertheless, Angelides has been running TV ads supporting himself and attacking Schwarzenegger on and off for nearly two years. The photo at right is of Angelides at a Jan. 4, 2005, press conference releasing ads criticizing the governor for failing to deal with the state's budget shortfall.

Bill Carrick, Angelides' media consultant, dismissed the PPIC poll in a press conference today announcing a new Angelides TV ad. He said the poll didn't reflect a growing Democratic surge and was a "very static look at the electorate, very conservative, very old and a very low-turnout electorate. My own view is we're going to have Democrats turn out in disproportionate numbers to Republicans."

With only 57% of Democrats supporting Angelides in the new poll, Angelides is spending the rest of the week with prominent members of his own party. Democratic chairman Howard Dean appears with him today and U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois shows up tomorrow. The new Angelides TV ad shows him standing in front of photographs of Schwarzenegger saying the governor wins the award for "best performance by a Republican pretending to be someone he's not."

(Photo: Rich Pedroncelli / AP)

Schwarzenegger Holds Steady Lead in New Poll

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is leading state Treasurer Phil Angelides by 18 points in a new Public Policy Institute of California poll released tonight. The poll shows Schwarzenegger with 48% of Californians surveyed compared to 30% for Angelides. Significantly, Angelides has lost ground in the Democratic Bay Area but gained considerable ground with Latinos. Only 57% of Democrats said they supported Angelides. Full details after the jump.

Tracking Poll Shows Bonds in OK Position

The bond package Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Legislature put on the November ballot is getting enough support from voters to pass — in one case, barely enough — according to an internal poll released by the bond campaign. Here are the poll results from J. Moore Methods:

• Proposition 1A (protection for transportation funding): YES-56% ... NO-21% ... NO OPINION-23%
• Proposition 1B ($19.9 billion for roads, ports): YES-50% ... NO-36% ... NO OPINION-14%
• Proposition 1C ($2.9 billion for housing): YES-54% ... NO-32% ... NO OPINION-15%
• Proposition 1D ($10.4 billion for schools): YES-52% ... NO-34% ... NO OPINION-14%
• Proposition 1E ($4.1 billion for levees): YES-55% ... NO-31% ... NO OPINION-15%

Reporters don't usually print campaign tracking polls because they are much less reliable than full-blown polls with larger samples. So treat this as a snapshot from inside the campaign.

New Poll Has Angelides 9 Points Behind Schwarzenegger

A new Rasmussen Research Poll shows Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger leading state Treasurer Phil Angelides by 9 percentage points, campaign sources said. Other recent polls, including the L.A. Times survey, have shown Schwarzenegger as much as 17 points ahead of Angelides. (But the last Rasmussen Poll showed Schwarzenegger with an eight point lead, so not much change when comparing the same polling company.)

The new Rasmussen poll — taken last Tuesday and Wednesday — has Republican Schwarzenegger with 49% of those surveyed compared to 40% for Democrat Angelides. Seven percent said they were undecided, and 5% had picked another candidate. The Rasmussen poll surveyed 500 likely voters.

In the Rasmussen cross tabs, 24% of voters said they had a "very favorable" view of Schwarzenegger, compared to 10% for Angelides. Thirty-three percent said they had a "somewhat favorable" view of Schwarzenegger, while 34% were in that category for Angelides.

In total, 57% of those surveyed had a favorable view of the governor, compared to 44% for Angelides. As for the negatives, 42% of those surveyed had an unfavorable view of Schwarzenegger, while 53% disliked Angelides.

Remember, folks, this is just a snapshot. Some people don't like the Rasmussen poll because it uses automated questions. Others think they have done well.

After the 2004 presidential race, David Kenner and William Saletan in Slate.com found Rasmussen and SurveyUSA did better than polls conducted by humans. Rasmussen and SurveyUSA use recorded voices to read poll questions, which Slate had originally derided. "Look who's laughing now. Rasmussen and SurveyUSA beat most of their human competitors in the battleground states, often by large margins," they wrote.

Why They Dislike Schwarzenegger and Angelides

The new L.A. Times poll asked Californians who had an unfavorable opinion of Schwarzenegger and Angelides to explain why. Here are the top answers.

For Schwarzenegger haters:

• Not honest (17%)
• Poor record on education (15%)
• Ineffective/poor track record (11%)
• Personality/arrogant (10%)
• No reason/just dislike him (9%)
• Doesn't understand the problems of California (9%)
• Celebrity (8%)
• Illegal immigration/supports reforms-guest worker (8%)
• Beholden to special interests (6%)

For Angelides haters:

• Not honest/has no integrity (18%)
• Tax plan/will raise taxes (15%)
• No reason/just dislike him (15%)
• Weak leadership qualities (10%)
• Don't agree with him on the issues (10%)
• Negative campaign ads (8%)
• Democrat (8%)
• Lacks charisma (6%)
• Flip-flops on certain issues/Jessica's Law (6%)
• Typical politician (5%)

It's the Leadership, Stupid

In an L.A. Times Poll released just before the 2003 recall, 74% of likely voters said California was headed in the wrong direction, compared to a paltry 19% who were satisfied. Now, 46% believe the state is on the wrong track, compared to 41% who think things are just peachy.

That's a considerable difference, but voters remain grumpy. Why, then, is Schwarzenegger doing so well among this downer group of likely voters? After all, he's in charge. Going deep into the new L.A. Times poll shows the governor's fundamental asset: people believe he would be a better leader.

It's all about power. The governor used the full force of his office to project himself as a chief executive; courted Democratic leaders and embraced their issues; cut back on the harsh rhetoric (even while his campaign amped it up against Angelides); and distanced himself from his corporate supporters (even while vetoing "job-killer" legislation they hated).

Except for cutting back on his harsh rhetoric, Phil Angelides had no power to do any of these things. He can only talk about what he wants to do. That's not leadership, at least not in the eyes of voters.

On major issues, except the environment and public education, Schwarzenegger holds healthy leads among voters who think he would do a better job. But he even leads Angelides by small margins on those two critical issues as well. From the poll:

"Voters, overwhelmingly, think the governor has strong leadership qualities and this may be at the heart of the problem Angelides is facing. Three-fifths of all likely voters believe Schwarzenegger has this attribute, while just a fifth think Angelides does. (This perceived lack of leadership was seen by the voters as a problem for Gray Davis while he was fighting to keep his governor's job during the recall campaign. At that time, only 28% of voters said Davis had shown decisive leadership while serving as governor of California. And the rest is history — he was one of the only governors to be recalled.)"

Who would do a better job handling:

• California's economy: Schwarzenegger 52% Angelides 29% Both/Neither 12%
• The state's budget: Schwarzenegger 49% Angelides 29% Both/Neither 12%
• Immigration issues: Schwarzenegger 43% Angelides 30% Both/Neither 17%
• Public education: Schwarzenegger: 40% Angelides: 38% Both/Neither 12%
• Environmental issues: Schwarzenegger: 37% Angelides 36% Both/Neither 13%

Who do you think has:

• Stronger leadership qualities: Schwarzenegger 60% Angelides 20% Both/Neither 12%
• More honesty and integrity: Schwarzenegger 43% Angelides: 25% Both/Neither 25%

Poll: Spanish Speakers Favor Angelides

A group of Democratic consultants releases a poll tomorrow of 600 Spanish-speaking Californians. It was conducted by a group called the NDN Political Fund and PowerPac.org, both of which describe themselves as progressive. Among the NDN political advisors: Mike McCurry, former press secretary to President Clinton, and Mack McLarty, former Clinton chief of staff.

Here's what they found:

• Among Spanish speakers, Phil Angelides leads Arnold Schwarzenegger 64% to 21%, despite more than half of these voters having no positive or negative opinion of Angelides (54% say he is unknown to them).



• 69% hold a negative view of Schwarzenegger.

Mind you, this is a snapshot from a partisan group looking at people who vote in numbers far smaller than their proportion of the population.

Bad News for Schwarzenegger. Yeah, That's Right

The Field Poll has some interesting tidbits about Schwarzenegger that could embolden the union-backed effort to defeat him. The union message is that Schwarzenegger is a shape-shifter, someone who can't be trusted one year to the next. Here is what Field found:

• One negative shift in voter perceptions of the Governor that has occurred over the past two years is that more voters now believe that when making decisions on important policy matters Schwarzenegger is more likely to do what is politically popular (48%) than what he believes is right (41%). This contrasts with the views that voters held in 2004 when, by a 61% to 28% margin, voters felt Schwarzenegger made such decisions more on what he believed than what was politically expedient.
• Another area where voters are now more critical of the Governor relates to his 2003 recall election campaign promise to reduce the power of special interests in Sacramento. The current survey finds that a majority (51%) of voters thinks Schwarzenegger has done little or nothing to reduce the influence of special interests, while 41% feel he has done a great deal or some in this regard. Two years ago fewer voters (41%) felt the Governor had done little or nothing in reducing the power of special interests.

Angelides Drops in PPIC Poll

The Public Policy Institute of California just released the following information about its new statewide poll:

"Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger now has a 17-point lead over State Treasurer Phil Angelides in the governor's race (48% to 31%). The incumbent GOP governor previously led his Democratic challenger by a 13-point margin in our August (45% to 32%) and July surveys (43% to 30%). In the current survey, 15% of likely voters are still undecided and six percent name another candidate.

"Schwarzenegger holds the lead today because he is favored by 82% of Republicans, and is ahead of Angelides by 15 points among independents (42% to 27%). Meanwhile, 57% of Democrats support Angelides, while 21% favor Schwarzenegger. Significantly, many Democrats (17%) and independents (21%) still say they are undecided in the governor's race. Nearly six in 10 liberals favor Angelides, and seven in 10 conservatives support Schwarzenegger, while the majority of political moderates favor the GOP incumbent (50% Schwarzenegger, 29% Angelides).

School Bonds in Trouble, and Angelides Too

Another poll shows Angelides trailing Schwarzenegger by large margins. The Datamar poll of "high-propensity voters" also shows lagging support for the $10.4 billion public school construction bond but a somewhat comfortable margin for a $2.5 billion bond for affordable housing.

This is counterintuitive to Sacramento logic. Normally, conventional wisdom here assumes any education bond will do well because it's about the children and affordable housing bonds for poor people do poorly. But there appears to be some voter fatigue when it comes to spending money for schools. Since 2002, California voters have approved $25.35 billion in school and college construction bonds.

EdSource has a nice primer on how school financing works, for those who still care.

Angelides Slides in New Poll

The S.F. Chronicle's Phil & Andy report (at the bottom of their column):

"Blowout? There's a new poll floating around among insiders showing that the gap between Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democratic challenger Phil Angelides has widened to 20 points. Democratic pollster Jim Moore included a question on the governor's race in a statewide survey taking the pulse on the $37 million bond package on the November ballot. The results among the likely voters surveyed (before Arnold's hot-blooded Latino remarks): 55% for Schwarzenegger, 35% for Angelides."

(Photo: Nick Ut / AP)

Trading in Arnold and Phil

The Washington Stock Exchange has a cool new feature: trade Phil Angelides and Arnold Schwarzenegger like stocks.

The innovative site gives everyone $1 million fake dollars they can use to buy and sell investments, not only in candidates, but also in potential developments, such as whether the U.S. will strike Iran or Democrats will take over Congress.

It's a speculative prediction market that can often be a good indicator of future events.

A little Wikiality on this: "The Hollywood Stock Exchange, a virtual market game established in 1996, in which players buy and sell prediction shares of movies, actors, directors, and film-related options, correctly predicted 35 of 2005's 40 big-category Oscar nominees and 7 out of 8 top category winners. HedgeStreet, designated in 2004 as a market and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, enables internet traders to speculate on economic events."

Arnold's stock ticker symbol on the Washington Stock Exchange is GVARSC06, and today he is trading at $75.30.

Today Phil is trading at $32.08. His stock ticker symbol is GVPHAN06.

Green Party candidate Peter Camejo -- ticker GVPECA06 -- is a bargain at $24.97.

Political Muscle is going to monitor this site to provide regular updates for readers. Invest early and often, folks, before the bottom falls out.

(Photo of NYSE: Richard Drew / AP)

Poll Watch: Green Party Alternative

Could Green Party candidate Peter Camejo pull enough votes from Phil Angelides to make a difference?

A new Wall Street Journal/Zogby poll shows that when Camejo enters the mix, Angelides drops from about 3 percentage points behind Schwarzenegger to nearly 6 points behind.

Camejo, a Bay Area "green" investment expert, ran during the 2003 recall and received only 2.8% of the vote. The new poll shows him getting 6.1% of those surveyed. Schwarzenegger also drops, but by a lesser margin, when Libertarian Art Olivier is added to the mix.

Either way, the poll is somewhat better news for Angelides than previous surveys that found him trailing Schwarzenegger by double-digit margins. It's way too early, however, to make predictions based on polls. Just a snapshot, folks, just a snapshot.