Schwarzenegger and the 'Third Force'

Howard Fineman at Newsweek saw something in Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's body language during the recent GOP presidential debate at the Reagan Library. Although Schwarzenegger cannot run for president, the California governor could be a leading actor in a new "independent for president" movement. Fineman writes:

"As California governor, Schwarzenegger has prospered in the role of centrist, hybrid 'Repubocrat' — an independent force. As he watched the ten GOP presidential candidates take turns bowing to the GOP's conservative base, the Governator bore the fixed smile of a man who had a desire to be elsewhere.

"If I were a GOP strategist — or a Democratic one — I would be worried by Arnold's body language. He and other major independent actors on the political scene — New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former Vice President Al Gore, chief among them — comprise a Third Force that could upset two-party politics as we know it in the 2008 presidential race."

Fineman says that Schwarzenegger, Bloomberg and Gore "have formed a mutual admiration society that has huge potential implications for 2008. They have come to share similar visions on the urgency of the global warming and health care crises, and a similar impatience with politics as usual."

Schwarzenegger has said repeatedly that he remains a loyal Republican, despite obvious splits with the core of the conservative California Republican Party. I don't see him as the next Ross Perot spoiler - or, rather, as someone who would have to stand on the sidelines supporting an independent for president. It's an intriguing proposition, but MotherJones says the Schwarzenegger-Bloomberg-Gore theory should be taken with a grain of salt.

(Photo:  Mark J. Terrill/AP)

Independents Rule Three Big Liberal Counties

You can see why conservatives in the California Republican Party won't allow decline-to-state independents to vote in their presidential primary next year. The GOP has effectively closed its Feb. 5, 2008, presidential ballot to party members only, to avoid mischief or undue influence from people who aren't true believers. The Democratic Party is, however, allowing decline-to-state voters inside the tent.

Although independent voters hold a wide variety of political viewpoints, the San Francisco, Marin and Alameda county voting blocs are rather large and could indeed favor moderate GOP candidates. That is, if those independent voters 1) were allowed to participate in the Republican presidential primary and 2) didn't want to vote in the equally exciting Democratic presidential race.

Not a single Top 10 Republican county shows up in the Top 10 list of decline-to-state counties, but three big-and-liberal Bay Area counties are cross-pollinating between Democratic and independent. Here are the newest numbers from Secretary of State Debra Bowen.

         Democrats                              Republicans                  Declined to State

1. Alameda 55.2%    ...             Placer 51.2% ...            San Francisco 29%
2. Imperial 55%   ...                  Modoc 49.4% ...             Mono 24.3%
3. San Francisco 54.3% ...     Sutter 49.4% ..               Santa Clara 24%
4. Santa Cruz 53%  ...              Shasta 49% ...               Alpine 23%
5. Marin 52.2%  ...                     Madera 49% ...              San Mateo 22%
6. Sonoma 50%  ...                   Tulare 48% ...               Alameda 22%
7. Los Angeles 49.7%  ...        Orange 47.7% ...          San Diego 21.8%
8. San Mateo 49.4%  ...            Kern 47.5% ...               Yolo 20.7%
9. Solano 48.6%  ...                  Glenn 47% ...                Humboldt 20.5%
10. Monterey 48.27%  ...            Mariposa 46.76% ...     Marin 20.28%

Meanwhile, the report shows a depressingly low number of Californians registered to vote. These numbers should increase because it's a presidential election year. Voter registration tends to drop in off years, so the numbers don't truly reflect how many people will participate in the wide-open, super-duper exciting 2008 race.

1 Million Fewer Voters In California

A newly purged registration roll has reduced the number of California voters by about 1 million people, Secretary of State Debra Bowen reports this afternoon. Instead of 16.6 million voters, now 15.7 million are registered - after Bowen's office subtracted duplicates, ineligibles, dead people and others who have fled the Golden State.

Registration in both the Republican (34.2%) and Democratic parties (42.5%) declined slightly, while independent voters increased to nearly 19% of the electorate. The loss of registered voters came despite a 1.25% increase in the state's population between July 2005 and July 2006. The state has more than 37 million people. "The unfortunate reality is, while 22 million Californians are eligible to vote, only 69% of them are taking the first step to engage in our democracy by registering to vote," said Bowen said.