Tuesday Afternoon Quarterbacking
The Times' Nancy Vogel just returned from an election analysis session at the Sacramento Press Club with leaders of the state's two big public polls: Mark DiCamillo of the Field Poll and Mark Baldassare of the Public Policy Institute of California. The highlights:
The Schwarzenegger Straddle: "He held on, according to the exit polls, to 93% of the GOP base," said DiCamillo. "And while he was able to hold on to that base he was winning over swing voters — he won 59% of independents, 58% of moderates — and making inroads in traditional Democratic constituencies. He won 39% of the Latino votes according to media exit poll, 27% of blacks, 55% of women. Those are impressive numbers for a Republican."
Every Reep for Himself: "Yet the governor's reelection win was more a personal win for the party of Arnold Schwarzenegger than for the GOP," DiCamillo said. "The governor chose not to campaign with other GOP candidates and by design distanced himself from the president at almost every opportunity. This resulted in an election with no real coattails, the Democrats winning all statewide down-ballot races except insurance commissioner and the reason for their winning insurance commissioner had more to do with the Democratic candidate than the Republican candidate."
Craptacular Turnout: "Another way that California distinguished itself from the U.S. in this election was voter turnout," DiCamillo said. "While turnout was up nationally, interest was high, here in California we probably set an all-time low for a statewide election in turnout. It's hard to believe that we would have a lower turnout than the [Gray Davis-William Simon gubernatorial] race of four years ago, but it seems that way, all the votes are not yet counted but it will probably be somewhere in the 50% of registered voters as a turnout. We're probably looking at a structural, long-term factor of low turnout. In primary elections we're looking at 1 out of 3 registered voters turning out. In general elections we're looking at about 1 out of 2. I think that's going to carry on for the foreseeable future."
Really Absentee Voters: "A lot of this has to do I think with the changing demographics of California voters," DiCamillo said. "If you look at the two fastest-growing voter registration groups...they're Latinos and nonpartisans. Both of those voting groups are much less frequent voters than older voters, white voters, partisans. In the primary, for example, 89% of all voters were Democrats or Republicans. So even though we have this massive increase in nonpartisan registration, they don't show up at the polls. They're infrequent voters."
The Parties Over: "The absolute number of Democrats and Republicans have declined since the recall, as have the Greens, Peace & Freedom, Natural Law and libertarians," Baldassare said. "Independents grew by about 484,000 while the overall voter roll grew by 400,000. The lack of party loyalty explains why, in a state like California, Phil Angelides can lose, Schwarzenegger does not have coattails, California has returned a divided government to Sacramento and partisan appeals fail to sway voters on state propositions."
The Man is Still The Man: Exit polls show the majority of voters are white, 45 and older, college-educated and homeowners, said Baldassare. "Voters do not come close to reflecting the ethnic, racial and economic diversity of the state and the GOP and Democratic parties show a lack of ability and interest to expand the size and composition of the state's electorate."
Bad News for Red (and Orange) California: Baldassare said both parties seem to be struggling with low turnout across the Central Valley, Orange County, Riverside and San Bernardino — "all growing regions that are undergoing significant demographic and economic changes in the voting age population."
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