Republicans: What Went Wrong?

The California Republican Party is conducting an internal audit over why its unprecedented $20 million get-out-the-vote effort didn't produce wins for their candidates on election day. Only Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and insurance commissioner Steve Poizner captured statewide offices for the GOP, which also failed to pick up any new seats in the Legislature. One Republican incumbent, Secretary of State Bruce McPherson, was unseated.

Some conservative Republicans are demanding answers from the  party. State Board of Equalization member Bill Leonard, who was reelected to his regional seat by a large margin, already has asked for the audit of the statewide effort. He has heard "rumors" that the GOP telephoned voters using scripts written by Schwarzenegger's team that only mentioned Schwarzenegger, that there was "mischief" with literature distributed on door-hangers in neighborhoods, and that the Republican Party may have called non-Republicans to encourage them to vote.

"At this point, such accusations remain just that: undocumented statements with a tinge of bitterness following a brutal defeat of most of the party ticket," Leonard wrote to his supporters this week. "Therefore, what is needed is full disclosure by the CRP leadership, a detailed political audit of how this campaign was waged. The party members, donors and volunteers deserve to know the full truth and the actual numbers."

Turnout in some important Republican counties was lower than in Democratic areas. A look at the most recent statistics, for example, shows Democrat-heavy Alameda County had a 61.2% turnout among all voters, while only 49.7% showed up in Republican-leaning Orange County. San Bernardino County, which leans Republican as well, showed a 43% turnout.

Mike Spence, another Republican activist, said other problems emerged during the get-out-the-vote effort: the GOP sparsely canvassed precincts in eastern Los Angeles County and an outreach program to churches "died wandering in the desert." He also has called for an audit. Spence said the conservative ideology of some Republicans, such as lieutenant governor candidate Tom McClintock, can't account for their losses. If so, he said, why did a moderate like McPherson not benefit from the get-out-the-vote message that swept Schwarzenegger to victory in a landslide?

California GOP chairman Duf Sundheim said he thinks the $20 million effort proved effective, particularly in early voting by mail. During the campaign, Schwarzenegger made several visits to GOP call centers, such as the one seen at right in photo. But Sundheim said a Democratic wave on the weekend before the election sunk candidates in the end.

Indeed, the L.A. Times exit poll showed that 11% of California voters made their decision for governor in the three days before the election; Angelides took a much higher proportion of these last-days voters than Schwarzenegger. Even if that trend didn't benefit Angelides, it likely held true for Democratic candidates down the ballot.

"The pollster I have been talking to said when people started to realize the Democrats had a chance to take over Congress, there was a significant shift in the mood," Sundheim said. "Not only did the Democrats turn out, the independents swung for change, and there was suppressed Republican turnout. It was kind of like the perfect storm in the last 48 hours."

To be sure, even $40 million may not have solved the Republican task. It was a Democratic year, and Republicans make up only 34.3% of the registered voters compared to 42.5% for Democrats. Schwarzenegger, too, virtually ignored the other Republican candidates on the ballot and courted Democrats in message and policy.

Now, Sundheim said, an internal investigation will look at the effectiveness of the GOP's phone calls, door-hangers, mailed brochures and precinct walking. He said it would remain private within the party. "We're going to go through each and every program, just like they did after the successful Bush-Cheney program" in 2004, he said. "Most people who are objective want to look at it, want to see how we can do better."

(Photo: Damian Dovarganes / AP; Noah Berger / AP)