Ballot Fatigue?

Before the elections become a distant memory, let's take a quick tour of some of the comprehensive theories that aim to explain the electorate's mixed approach to the 13 propositions on the ballot. They nixed the oil tax and cigarette tax measures, campaign finance reform, parental notification about abortion, and restriction on eminent domain. But voters approved lawmakers' infrastructure package, the water bond put on by conservationists and Jessica's Law, the anti-perv measure. What gave?

First, there's the Money Talks theory: as The Times' Dan Morain laid out, the biggest spenders tended to win. Then, this morning, The Times' editorial board offered what might be called the Sacramento First Vantage. The board said the election's lesson was that voters only stomached ideas that had either been put forth by the Legislature — the bond package — and ones that had at least been first considered by lawmakers though not adopted. That would be the water bond and the sex offender measure.

We'll add two less sophisticated explanations. The ADD Analysis notes that the top seven ballot questions all passed but the final six failed. The hypothesis here is that voters got increasingly ticked off as they worked their way down the ballot and finally cried no mas.

And finally there's the Rodney King Thesis: that the electorate OKd measures with no serious opposition but refused to sign off on anything where there was. (Serious disagreement being defined as having enough money to run a real opposition campaign  with TV and stuff.) Well? Can't we all get along?

Got nothing better to do this weekend than cook up your own hypothesis? If so, send it to politicalmuscle@latimes.com. The winner gets an autographed copy of Joe Mathews' excellent book, "The People's Machine: Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Rise of Blockbuster Democracy." (Note that we don't say whose autograph it will contain.)

—Jordan Rau