The Bush Factor or the Schwarzenegger Factor

Who is responsible for what happens in California in two weeks?

As the election nears, Republicans believe that moderate Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger could single-handedly sweep other GOP members into statewide office — even the most conservative to the core. Democrat Phil Angelides, on the other hand, has been telling voters that President George W. Bush could make the difference in California — voters who dislike the president could put himself and other Democrats into office statewide, much like in 1932, 1974 and 1992.

Republican political consultant Dan Schnur has a rundown of the Schwarzenegger Coattail Index. He said if Schwarzenegger wins by 2-3 points, Steve Poizner will be elected insurance commissioner. As the Schwarzenegger margin of victory grows larger, Schnur stacks up the wins for lesser mortals: Bruce McPherson for secretary of state, Tony Strickland for controller and Tom McClintock as lieutenant governor. He gives a much smaller chance to Chuck Poochigian for attorney general and pretty much writes off Claude Parrish for treasurer (that'll happen only if Schwarzenegger wins by 40 to 45 points).

Not so fast, says Ventura County Star columnist Timm Herdt. It's true that when former Gov. Pete Wilson won reelection in a landslide in 1994, Republicans took all but two of the statewide offices and even captured a majority in the state Assembly. But was that a Pete Wilson revolution or a Newt Gingrich revolution? Herdt says there is an important thing to consider:

"The unavoidable fact is that national politics drives all elections. A seminal 1986 study of all state legislative races over the previous 120 years found that, illogical as it may seem, statewide partisan elections are just as influenced by the presidential 'surge and decline effect' as are congressional elections.

"The study found that when balanced against the coattail effects of a winning gubernatorial candidate, the negative effect of midterm national elections on state-level candidates has produced a 50-50 split. In other words, the partisan winds in California next month could blow in either direction — or swirl in both directions at once."

I've been wrong many times before, but I fully expect to wake up after the election with California going the opposite direction as the rest of the nation. It's happened so many times before. There is a reason they call us the Great Exception.

(Photo: Ron Edmonds / AP)